● 本报记者 葛瑶 COMEX黄金期货价格同步攀升至3310美元/盎司上方，单日涨幅0.78%。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）20日援引多名美国官员的话报道，美国获得 的新情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设施。报道说，目前尚不清楚以方是否做出了最终决定。该情报 基于以色列高级官员公开和私下交流的情况、截获的以色列通信及对以色列军事行动的观察，这一切都 表明以色列即将发动袭击。 机构人士表示，全球地缘政治局势骤然升温，提振了避险需求。同时市场对美国财政健康的持续担忧， 以及贸易谈判的不确定性，也使黄金保持相对强劲的买盘，帮助金价收复上周部分跌幅。 5月21日亚洲交易时段，伦敦金现货价格再次站上3300美元/盎司大关，COMEX黄金期货价格同步攀升 至3310美元/盎司上方。消息面上，据新华社报道，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）20日援引多名美国官 员的话报道，美国获得的新情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设施。 机构人士认为，黄金或将进入一段时间的调整期，以消化此前的大幅上涨和对恐慌情绪的过度定价，但 黄金长期上涨动力仍然充足。 国际金价反弹 5月21日，国际金价迎来反弹，收复上周部分失地。伦敦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is significantly leaning towards risk aversion, with geopolitical risks enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The market's willingness to hedge and arbitrage has noticeably increased due to the Middle East risk premium reflected in gold price movements [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are approaching a double top formation, indicating potential technical pullback risks [3]. - If geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite returns, gold prices may test support levels at $3,230 and potentially drop to $3,120 [3]. - Current trading patterns show gold fluctuating around $3,300, with a notable resistance at $3,320 and support at $3,285 [5]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests monitoring the $3,315 and $3,320 resistance levels for potential short positions, while keeping an eye on the $3,285 support level for possible downward movements [5]. - The analysis indicates a need for caution as the market shows signs of a quick rise followed by corrections, suggesting a shift in trading strategy may be necessary [5].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to changes in consumer sentiment, with gold prices reaching $3,300 per ounce on May 21, marking the first time since May 9 that prices have returned to this level [1] - On April 22, gold prices hit a historical high of $3,509 per ounce, followed by significant volatility, including a drop below $3,300 per ounce on May 1 [1] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei gold jewelry market, gold jewelry prices returned to approximately 780 yuan per gram on May 21, after dropping to around 742 yuan per gram on May 15, which is over an 11% decline from the April 22 high of 837 yuan [1] Group 2 - The younger consumer demographic is increasingly participating in the gold market, with many preferring to invest in gold due to declining deposit interest rates, viewing it as a means of preserving value [2] - Despite recent price corrections, many market operators report that downstream sales volumes have not seen significant increases, indicating a cautious market environment [2] - Several institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, with UBS predicting that gold prices will reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the current rise in gold prices include heightened risk aversion due to the downgrade of the US credit rating, geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the US, global trade tensions, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased capital inflow into the gold market [3] - The weakening of the US dollar's credibility is evident as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, with US debt surpassing $36 trillion, prompting central banks worldwide to increase gold holdings to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets [3] - Technical buying has been triggered as gold prices surpassed $3,000, leading to algorithmic trading following suit, with gold ETF holdings nearing their peak for the year, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] Group 2 - Optimistic analysts, such as those from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believe that gold is likely to remain in an upward trend in the medium to long term, with prices potentially reaching $3,350 to $3,700 per ounce by 2025, while Goldman Sachs predicts extreme scenarios could see prices hit $4,500 [3] - Conversely, cautious analysts from the World Gold Council warn of a potential slowdown in growth and short-term pullback pressures, with technical indicators suggesting signals similar to the 2011 peak [3] - There is a long-term consensus that gold retains its strategic value as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset, although short-term volatility risks should be monitored [3] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of their investable assets to gold to balance risk and return, suggesting that a 10% allocation in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio can reduce overall volatility [4] - Investment options include physical gold, which is suitable for long-term value retention but incurs transaction costs (buy-sell spread of approximately 5-10 yuan per gram), and gold ETFs or accumulation gold, which offer strong liquidity and lower entry barriers, making them suitable for dollar-cost averaging or risk diversification [5] - High-risk tools such as futures and options are advised against for ordinary investors due to their extreme volatility and potential for significant losses [6] Group 4 - Timing strategies suggest that, given the current high gold prices (London gold at $3,301 per ounce), investors may consider waiting for a pullback to the $2,800-$3,000 range for phased entry [7] - For long-term strategies, monthly dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips is recommended to mitigate the impact of volatility through a "time smoothing" approach [7] Group 5 - Successful case studies include investors who began monthly investments in gold ETFs from 2019, achieving over 250% returns by 2025 [9] - Conversely, a cautionary tale involves a Shenzhen-based merchant who suffered over 100 million yuan in losses due to leveraged trading in gold futures, leading to a payment crisis [9] - Overall, gold remains strategically valuable for 2025, but ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices, control their positions, and engage in long-term investments or phased buying during market pullbacks [9]

哎呀，一觉睡醒，存款人的 "天" 塌了！为什么呢？因为又降息了。按现在的利率算，活期利率只有 0.05%，一年期、三年期、五年期的存款利率也都下降 了。这让老年人该怎么办？很多老年人靠吃利息生活，存个百八十万在银行赚点利息，加上退休金，基本够生活，毕竟老年人花销不大。但现在利息越来越 低，据中信证券测算，今年还会再降息两次。照这样下去，100 万存银行，一年利息可能连 1 万块都没有，平均每个月不到 1000 块，怎么生活？ 这时很多人会想：买点黄金行不行？黄金抗通胀，又是实物，感觉安全。但实际上，在利率下行的当下，大家不要盲目买黄金。很多人觉得黄金稳健，其实 错了 —— 黄金的稳健要放在 20 年、30 年甚至 50 年的长周期看，短期内（一两年内）波动极大。从历史走势看，黄金 50 年整体向上，但每个十年或十几 年都会有大的下滑周期，可能持续三五年甚至十年。如果在高点买入，赶上下跌周期，可能五到十年都解不了套，而且跌幅可能达 30%—50%。单看年度涨 幅，黄金一年可能涨 20% 左右，而 A 股指数一年波动都不一定有这么大，足见黄金风险很高。 2275 I (which 1 P 股票是非常重要机股股份资 ...

近段时间以来，国际金价波动加剧。 5月21日，COMEX黄金价格重新站上每盎司3300美元，为5月9日以来首次。 4月22日，金价触及每盎司3509美元的历史高点，随即开始剧烈波动。5月1日，COMEX黄金跌破每盎 司3300美元，一度逼近每盎司3200美元，此后又大幅反弹，5月6日价格站上每盎司3400美元，紧接着从 5月7日开始再出现一轮下跌，5月15日，COMEX黄金一度下探至每盎司3123美元。 相对于历史最高价格，近期金价已经有所回调，但记者在水贝市场采访时发现，多位经营者均表 示，"下游出货量未见显著增长，黄金价格还是处于高位，市场的新款产品也不多，大家还是比较谨 慎。" 此外，金价今日的上涨也引发市场的广泛讨论。在一些社交平台上，网友评论称"怎么又涨价了"、"金 价太高我高攀不起"，反映出消费者对价格波动的关注。 有店铺负责人表示，近期整体销售量比金价高峰时增加近10% 吴家明/摄 此前，金价迅速走高在一定程度上抑制了黄金饰品的消费。不过，水贝金展广场一家黄金店铺的负责人 告诉记者，"最近金价有所下跌，手镯类和一些相对大克重的饰品销量有所增长，整体销售量比金价高 峰时增加近10%。" 部分品牌金 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the resistance faced by gold prices during the European trading session, indicating a potential need for price correction to fill the gap above [1] - It raises questions about how funds will make decisions during the US trading session and emphasizes the importance of short-term positioning strategies [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the bullish trend in gold prices, with a target of 3430 [1] - It highlights the ongoing live broadcast by a researcher named Steven, focusing on how to seize trend opportunities in the gold market [1]

头豹市场研究| 2025/04 www.leadleo.com 2025年全球黄金消费洞察：变局、趋 势与机遇 2025 Global Gold Consumption Insights 2025年世界の金消費インサイト 近年来，全球黄金消费市场呈现出新的发展态势。2024年，全球黄金消费量需求同比增长 1.4%（不包含场外交易和其他需求），新兴市场尤其是亚太地区的消费增长显著。随着全球经济不 确定性上升和通胀压力持续，黄金作为避险资产的价值进一步凸显，投资需求持续攀升。然而，面 对地缘政治风险加剧和各国货币政策调整，黄金市场仍存在较大波动性。如何在复杂多变的国际环 境中把握投资机遇？是实物黄金还是黄金衍生品更具投资价值？ 本报告主要聚焦全球黄金消费市场现状，深入分析黄金供需格局，探讨了各类投资者的配置策 略与风险管理，并对黄金市场的持续发展进行了系统研究，同时对未来价格走势及投资机会做出预 判。 ✓ 全球黄金供给格局：稳定可控的多元化供应体系 全球黄金供应呈现多元化特征，2024年储采比达19.4年，显示资源储量充足。地上存量21.6万吨， 金矿产量3,661吨，年均增长2.0%但与金价关联度较低。在高金价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices presents both opportunities and risks for investors, with a recommendation to consider long-term strategic investments in gold as a hedge against market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since May, international gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with notable increases and decreases, including a peak of $3509.9 per ounce for COMEX gold and $3500.12 per ounce for London spot gold [1]. - The global trade war risks previously supported gold prices, but recent progress in US-China trade talks has led to a decrease in risk premiums and a decline in short-term safe-haven demand [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Gold is influenced by various factors beyond trade risks, including the US dollar's performance, investor confidence in dollar assets, US government debt sustainability, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [2]. - The World Gold Council encourages viewing gold as a strategic asset that can provide long-term returns, reduce portfolio volatility, and offer liquidity during market turmoil [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for that period since 2016 [2]. - Strong investment demand, driven by central bank purchases and improved global gold ETF demand, is a key factor supporting overall gold demand [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For individual and institutional investors, a recommended allocation of 5%-10% in gold can enhance the risk-return profile of a typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio [3]. - The recent increase in gold price volatility suggests that investors should exercise caution in their investment strategies [3].