Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by a weakening US dollar index, increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end, and the rising attractiveness of RMB assets [1][2][3]. External Factors - The US dollar index has weakened significantly, dropping 1.41% since December, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [2][3]. - The demand for currency settlement from export enterprises has increased, contributing to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB as companies are encouraged to settle in RMB due to its rising value [2][3]. Internal Factors - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, with foreign capital continuously flowing into China's capital markets and a growing scale of international investors holding Chinese government bonds, which enhances the buying power of the RMB [3]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that the RMB will experience two-way fluctuations in the future, as a sustained one-sided trend is deemed unsustainable. The potential for the US dollar index to rise again poses a risk to the RMB's strength [4]. - The current interest rate differential between domestic and foreign currencies remains significant, which could reduce the willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB if the appreciation trend slows down [4]. Recommendations for Enterprises - Companies, especially those engaged in foreign trade, are advised to adopt a risk-neutral approach and avoid speculating on one-sided RMB trends. They should focus on managing exchange rate risks effectively [6]. - Practical measures include optimizing commercial contracts to use RMB for pricing and settlement, and utilizing financial instruments such as forward foreign exchange contracts and swaps to hedge against long-term risks [6].

今年以来，全球汇市波动加剧，而人民币对美元走势稳中偏强。从人民币对美元汇率中间价来看，年内 涨幅超过1500个基点，并于近日升至2024年9月以来最高。这引发市场广泛讨论，其间不乏"人民币会继 续升值"的猜想。就此，记者采访了有关专家。 "中长期来说，经济是汇率的基本盘，汇率走势在根本上取决于经济基本面。短期来看，汇率的影响因 素则比较多元，比如，经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治、风险事件等。"国家金融与发展实 验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。伴随美联储开启 降息，市场预期美元长期走势将受进一步压制，为人民币提供了外部升值空间。 接下来，人民币汇率是否会呈现单边升值态势？专家认为，对此还需客观、理性看待。"美联储面临通 胀和就业的艰难平衡，进一步降息面临的约束不少，并不像部分媒体所说的明年会超预期大幅降息，目 前市场预期明年会降息2次。近期美元指数跌幅较大，未来存在回调走升的可能。"中国民生银行首席经 济学家温彬说。 作为货币之间的比价，汇率双向波动是常态。温彬提醒，未来人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，企 业和金融机构切忌盲目跟风、赌汇率走势，要坚持风险中性 ...

人民币汇率在岁末走出强势行情，引来各界关注。日前，离岸人民币对美元汇率收复7.0整数关口，为 2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元汇率则升破7.01关口，距离"破7"一步之遥。多重因素驱动人民 币近期持续走强。一方面，12月，随着美联储降息落地，美元走势趋弱，带动人民币对美元汇率被动走 强；另一方面，年末季节性结汇需求增加，供需关系对人民币构成支撑。在突破关键点位之后，市场热 议人民币走势，并积极展望后续点位。有较多分析称，人民币仍将继续走强。对此，多位业内人士提 醒，人民币后续走势依然面临多重不确定性。"汇率是测不准的。"近年来，伴随着人民币对美元汇率双 向波动态势进一步凸显，金融管理部门频频发声，引导市场理性预期。多位专家也提示，企业和金融机 构切忌盲目跟风、赌汇率走势，应坚持风险中性理念，做好汇率风险管理。 (上证报) 来源：滚动播报 ...

人民币汇率在岁末走出强势行情，引来各界关注。日前，离岸人民币对美元汇率收复7.0整数关口，为 2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元汇率则升破7.01关口，距离"破7"一步之遥。 多重因素驱动人民币近期持续走强。一方面，12月，随着美联储降息落地，美元走势趋弱，带动人民币 对美元汇率被动走强；另一方面，年末季节性结汇需求增加，供需关系对人民币构成支撑。 在突破关键点位之后，市场热议人民币走势，并积极展望后续点位。有较多分析称，人民币仍将继续走 强。对此，多位业内人士提醒，人民币后续走势依然面临多重不确定性。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对上海证券报记者表示，年底结汇的季节性效应或放大汇市波动。而且，美 联储后续操作仍有待继续观察美国各项经济数据的实际表现，预计美元指数难以进一步大幅下行。 "外汇市场是出了名的测不准，建议外贸企业不要押注人民币汇率单边走势，还是要坚守主业，尽可能 利用期权、期货等外汇衍生品工具，控制好汇率波动风险。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者说。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对上海证券报记者表示，人民币出现单边快速升值的概率较 低。实体企业，尤其是有涉外业务的企业，须积极构建系统 ...

汇率测不准 切莫赌人民币单边升值 ◎记者 范子萌 ■记者观察 人民币汇率是由国际环境、资金流向、政策变化等多维因素共同作用的结果，其后续走势所涉及的外部 环境变化、利差等一系列重要因素不容忽视。而且，处于"7.0"关口的人民币，面临着更大的市场分 歧。 "汇率是测不准的。"近年来，伴随着人民币对美元汇率双向波动态势进一步凸显，金融管理部门频频发 声，引导市场理性预期。多位专家也提示，企业和金融机构切忌盲目跟风、赌汇率走势，应坚持风险中 性理念，做好汇率风险管理。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对上海证券报记者表示，年底结汇的季节性效应或放大汇市波动。而且，美 联储后续操作仍有待继续观察美国各项经济数据的实际表现，预计美元指数难以进一步大幅下行。 "外汇市场是出了名的测不准，建议外贸企业不要押注人民币汇率单边走势，还是要坚守主业，尽可能 利用期权、期货等外汇衍生品工具，控制好汇率波动风险。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者说。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对上海证券报记者表示，人民币出现单边快速升值的概率较 低。实体企业，尤其是有涉外业务的企业，须积极构建系统性的汇率风险管理能力，将汇率波动纳入日 常经营决 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted market attention, with a notable increase of approximately 1.7% since mid-October [1] - The strengthening of the RMB is influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker USD index, as well as seasonal demand for currency settlement towards the year-end [1] - Despite the typical year-end peak in currency settlement, the latest data indicates that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales, suggesting that the demand for currency settlement may not remain high [1] Group 2 - The RMB's exchange rate is affected not only by domestic supply and demand but also by the trends in the USD index, with potential downward pressure on the USD in the coming months due to the Fed's pause in interest rate cuts [2] - The CFETS RMB index, which measures the RMB against a basket of currencies, has remained relatively stable, indicating that while the RMB has appreciated, it is still maintaining a reasonable equilibrium level [2] - The central bank is likely to take measures to prevent one-sided expectations in the exchange rate market, especially if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has sparked market interest, but there is a divergence regarding whether this trend will continue, with expectations of two-way fluctuations becoming the norm [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.7% against the USD, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1]. - The exchange rate is currently at a critical point around 7.0, which is seen as a battleground for bullish and bearish sentiments [1]. - Despite the typical year-end surge in currency settlement, recent data shows that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales volumes in November [1]. Group 2: Market Influences and Expectations - The RMB's performance is not only dependent on domestic supply and demand but also on the trends of the USD index [2]. - The upcoming pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may alleviate downward pressure on the USD, despite the recent appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The CFETS RMB index has remained stable over the past two months, indicating that while the USD weakens, the RMB is maintaining a reasonable equilibrium against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Regulatory Considerations - The central bank is vigilant about preventing one-sided expectations in the exchange rate market and may intervene if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]. - Market participants, including enterprises and financial institutions, should adopt a risk-neutral approach and utilize foreign exchange derivatives for effective risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB), which may harm export competitiveness. However, this narrative is questioned for its logical consistency [2][5]. Group 1: Popular Narrative and Core Logic - The core narrative is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, resulting in RMB appreciation, which could negatively impact China's export competitiveness [5]. - The narrative's logical inconsistencies include: 1) The relationship between Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar is not guaranteed; 2) RMB appreciation does not necessarily equate to a loss of export competitiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Assessment of RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is currently considered fairly valued, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation issues. The deviation from the "value center" is around 0% to 2% [10][61]. - Internally, the RMB's stability is supported by export resilience and policy support, but significant upward momentum for appreciation may require further accumulation of fundamental support [10][89]. - Externally, the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts may help sustain economic growth and relative asset price advantages, limiting the pressure for a continuous decline of the dollar [10][79]. Group 3: Analysis of RMB Appreciation in 2023 - The RMB's appreciation in 2023 can be divided into two phases: 1) From mid-April to November, where policy support was the main driver, with the RMB middle price rising from approximately 7.21 to around 7.08 [38][44]. 2) From late November to the present, where market supply and demand became the primary driver, with the RMB middle price further appreciating to just above 7.04 [39][47]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Future RMB Exchange Rate - Four key factors to consider for future RMB exchange rate trends include: 1) Valuation factors indicate that the RMB is not significantly overvalued or undervalued [10][61]. 2) Policy orientation has shifted from guiding stable appreciation to preventing excessive appreciation volatility [64][67]. 3) Internal supply and demand dynamics, particularly the flow logic of trade surplus and net settlement rates, are crucial for understanding RMB trends [72][73]. 4) External responses, particularly the behavior of the dollar index, suggest limited potential for sustained dollar weakness due to the current economic context [79][80].

Economic Growth - The economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5%, with nominal and real growth rates converging [2][20] - Actual growth is showing a "front high and back low" pattern rather than a "U-shaped" recovery [20] Fiscal Policy - The broad fiscal expenditure is better than last year, with the deficit rate raised to 4% and a debt relief plan of 10 trillion yuan to ease local fiscal pressure [3][4] - The government report confirms a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan and a debt replacement scale of 10 trillion yuan, with significant increases in education and social security spending [4][21] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with potential for more significant rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2024 [5][22] - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut in May released approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, and the yuan appreciated instead of depreciating [5][22] Credit Cycle - M1 growth turned positive, reaching 4.9% in November, but the social financing growth did not follow the predicted "two ends low, middle high" pattern [7][24] - The actual social financing growth showed a "front high and steady" trend, with an 8.5% growth in November [24] International Relations - Economic disturbances primarily stem from U.S.-China relations, but macro policies have effectively mitigated impacts, with increasing pragmatism in China-Europe relations [8][25] - Cooperation among global southern countries is gaining momentum, evidenced by various agreements and initiatives [8][25] Exchange Rate - The prediction of the yuan remaining in a weak range of 7.3-7.5 was completely incorrect, as the yuan appreciated throughout the year due to strong economic resilience and unexpected export performance [10][27] Export Situation - External demand slowdown and tariff pressures led to a negative export growth in October, but overall performance was stronger than expected, with a 5.4% growth from January to November [12][29] Real Estate Market - Core areas in first-tier cities have stabilized, and new first-tier cities are expected to stop declining by mid-2025, although recent data shows some instability in housing prices [13][31] Domestic Demand Expansion - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods are in place, but the actual growth in retail sales fell short of the 5% target, with a total growth of 4.0% from January to November [15][32] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The implementation of market value assessments and increased mergers and acquisitions led by state-owned enterprises has been confirmed, with significant investments in traditional and emerging industries [16][33]

CONTENTS 01 国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：宏观清淡平稳搭台，贵金 属、有色爆发 二为交割制度 • FICC-人民币：人民币破七，贸易账为基石，利 差和结汇配合 • FICC-人民币：政策态度较为明确，短期升值空 间或有限 • 周度 ...