降准降息

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王青:二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟 落地时间可能会适度提前
news flash· 2025-04-14 05:37
央行2025年3月金融数据报告出炉,一季度社融同比增2.37万亿元。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青解读 称,4月外部波动骤然加大,将加快国内货币政策对冲步伐。二季度"择机降准降息"的时机已经成熟, 落地时间也可能会适度提前。接下来,财政稳增长也将在促消费、扩投资方向进一步加力,政府债券融 资规模还会处于较高水平,这些都将推动二季度信贷、社融持续提速。(一财) ...
专家解读择机降准降息的三层含义
news flash· 2025-04-13 23:19
央行主管的金融时报援引中国社会科学院学部委员余永定报道,择机降准降息的"择机"有三层含义,其 一,如果中国宏观经济形势出现某种不利变化,如面临美国加征关税等外部冲击,对中国经济产生负面 影响,中国人民银行可能进一步降准降息,刺激经济增长。其二,如果扩张性 财政政策产生的加息压 力,削弱了财政扩张效果,中国人民银行就可能加大 公开市场操作力度,增加流动性供给,进一步降 低 利率,甚至在二级市场买入新 增发的国债,使扩张性财政政策充分发挥作用。其三,当资本市场 (股市、楼市)遭受某种冲击暴跌,引发系统性经济金融风险时,中国人民银行不但需要大幅降息,提 供充分的流动性,甚至要直接入市干预,从而稳定 资产价格。 ...
3月份人民币贷款增量处于高位 货币信贷保持合理增长
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-04-13 14:00
每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 陈星 4月13日,人民银行最新披露的金融统计数据显示,一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时指出,3月,人民币贷款增加 3.64万亿元,同比多增5470亿元,处于高位水平。 初步统计,2025年一季度社会融资规模增量累计为15.18万亿元,比上年同期多2.37万亿元。 3月社融增量达5.89万亿元,同比多增1.06万亿元。廖博表示,社融同比支撑项主要来自于政府债券,拖 累项是未贴现银行承兑汇票和企业债券。预计伴随财政资金的逐步拨付和使用可能对M1(狭义货币) 数据逐渐产生正面带动。 3月信贷供给端延续维稳基调 廖博分析,3月社融增量达5.89万亿元,同比多增1.06万亿元。社融同比支撑项主要来自于政府债券,拖 累项是未贴现银行承兑汇票和企业债券。 他预计,伴随财政资金的逐步拨付和使用,可能对M1数据逐渐产生正面带动。对于后续货币政策,二 季度财政支出节奏加快,预计存在降准落地的"窗口期"。 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2024年第四季度例会及2025年中国人民银行工作会议均提出"择机降准降 息"。3月31日,财政部公布了 ...
降准降息何时落地?经济学家:可能本月底
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-12 08:00
近期,市场对降准降息的预期快速升温。 今年以来,央行也已多次表态要择机"降准降息"。对此,东吴证券首席经济学家、研究所联席所长芦哲对时代周报记者表示,在全球贸易战阴云笼罩、中美 贸易摩擦风险冲击基本面的情况下,降准降息的节奏正在提前。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明也指出,内需不足已成为当前经济主要矛盾,加上外部冲击导致外需放缓,叠加物价下行压力,需要货币政策发力节奏适当靠 前。 基于这一形式,伍超明判断,预计在4月底降准降息的可能性较大,且降准会先于降息实施,降准幅度在50-100BP左右,降息幅度在10-20BP左右。 中金公司固收团队同样在研报中称,预计第二季度货币宽松可能明显加快,不排除4月降准降息操作的可能性,而流动性有望重回宽松状态。 若降准降息落地,实体企业融资成本下降、资本市场流动性改善等都将是直接利好。 2024年12月9日的中央政治局会议提出,2025年要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。随后,在12月11日至12日举行的中央经济会议中进一步 明确,将通过适时降准降息等措施保持流动性充裕,使社会融资规模与经济增长目标相匹配。 这一调整,显然是根据国内外复杂严峻形势、应对不确定性不稳定 ...
瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250410
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 11:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The current market may have digested the short - term impact of tariffs, and the subsequent risk - aversion sentiment may ease. The focus of the bond market may shift back to domestic fundamental pressures. With the exchange rate holding the 7.34 level, fiscal policy may continue to stimulate domestic demand to offset the impact of tariffs. Medium - and long - term bond market interest rates are likely to decline further, but the trend may not be smooth. The 1.6% interest rate level of the ten - year bond may face significant selling pressure, and the market may consolidate to absorb the selling pressure before continuing to fluctuate upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: T (10 - year) main contract closed at 109.035 (0% change), with a volume of 84,854 (-1,898); TF (5 - year) at 106.500 (0.07% change), volume 69,578 (+1,245); TS (2 - year) at 102.702 (0.03% change), volume 43,868 (-939); TL at 119.870 (-0.24% change), volume 131,204 (+284) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: For example, TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.08 (+0.02), T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.03 (-0.00) [2]. - **Open Positions**: T main contract open interest was 188,699 (-3,999); TF was 180,190 (+3,630); TS was 112,006 (+3,618); TL was 102,587 (-2,212) [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: Net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as 240025.IB (6y) at 99.303 (+0.0312), 220003.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.2022) [2]. - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year active bonds decreased by 4.50bp, 3.75bp, 2.00bp, 2.00bp, 3.30bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.6071% (+25.71bp), Shibor overnight was 1.6070% (-13.40bp) [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year LPR was 3.10% (0.00bp change), 5 - year was 3.6% (0.00bp change) [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 65.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 223.4 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 - day operations, with a net回笼 of 157.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff rates on US - originated imported goods from 34% to 84% starting from 12:01 on April 10 [2]. - Twelve departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Healthy Consumption" [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce stated that the current bonded policies in special supervision areas within free trade pilot zones remain unchanged [2]. - Wang Qing suggested that the implementation time of "selectively reducing reserve requirements and interest rates" may be advanced to April [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On April 10 at 20:30, the US March unadjusted CPI annual rate and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 will be released [3]. - On April 11 at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting [3].
3月核心CPI明显回升!国家统计局,最新公布
证券时报· 2025-04-10 08:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a decline in CPI and PPI in March, the core CPI has shown a significant recovery, indicating improvements in supply-demand structure and some positive price changes [1][4][6] - In March, the CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, with the CPI performance slightly better than market expectations [4][5] - Seasonal factors and the decline in oil prices are identified as key influences on the CPI and PPI, with the recent drop in WTI crude oil prices reaching a four-year low of $55.12 per barrel [4][5][3] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% year-on-year in March, reversing a previous decline, with service prices also showing a positive trend [7][8] - Specific service prices such as domestic services, hairdressing, and cultural entertainment have increased, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [7][8] - The average core CPI for the first three months of the year stands at 0.3%, suggesting that core inflation is still in a recovery phase [9] Group 3 - There is an increasing expectation for monetary policy easing, with discussions around potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions gaining momentum [10][11] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a willingness to adjust monetary policy based on economic conditions, with expectations for a possible rate cut in April [12][13] - Analysts suggest that a combination of rate cuts and structural tools could enhance market confidence and support the real economy [13]
机构预计降准降息有望很快落地,30年国债ETF(511090)交投活跃,早盘成交额超63亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-10 04:17
Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance and liquidity of the 30-year government bond ETF, indicating a mixed market response and ongoing investor interest in long-term bonds amid changing monetary policy dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 10, 2025, the majority of government bond futures have declined, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.32% and the 10-year main contract down by 0.05% [1]. - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has decreased by 0.20%, with the latest price at 125.32 yuan [1]. - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 39.02% and a total transaction value of 6.392 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Leverage - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 16.444 billion yuan [2]. - Over the past 22 trading days, there have been net inflows on 14 days, totaling 1.859 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 84.4913 million yuan [2]. - The latest margin buying amount for the 30-year government bond ETF is 365 million yuan, with a financing balance of 245 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - According to Guosheng Securities, the central bank's monetary policy has evolved significantly since 2020, with economic fundamentals, exchange rates, and market volatility being key considerations [3]. - The central bank's policy framework has shifted towards a more nuanced approach, balancing multiple objectives and tightening liquidity in response to economic pressures [3]. - Looking ahead, increased export pressures and a potential acceleration in government bond issuance may lead to imminent rate cuts [3]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 25-30 years [4]. - The ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [4]. - Multiple market makers provide liquidity for the ETF, ensuring immediate transaction execution and ample market depth [4].
近4700股上涨!A股三大指数涨超1%,降准有望先于降息落地?
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-09 06:55
作 者丨唐婧 易妍君 编 辑丨包芳鸣 4月9日午后,A股三大指数均涨超1%,北证5 0涨超9%,科创5 0涨超4%, 截1 4 : 2 0左右, 市 场近4 7 0 0股上涨。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3182.87 | 9576.05 | 1202.50 | | +37.32 +1.19% +151.37 +1.61% +108.12 +9.88% | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 983.13 | 1868.60 | 4762.57 | | +43.04 +4.58% +28.29 +1.54% +88.03 +1.88% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 3682.90 | 5456.70 | 4310.66 | | +32.14 +0.88% +129.78 +2.44% +51.35 +1.21% | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红利 | | 5679.71 | 2258.10 | 5261.60 | | +149.69 +2.71% +74.98 ...
降准降息将择机而动!一批储备政策在路上
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-08 14:30
作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨包芳鸣 图 源丨图虫 随着美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税",市场正密切关注中国货币政策的应对之策。两 大焦点问题尤为引人关注: 一是央行此前多次提及的"择机降准降息"何时落地实施;二是新 的结构性货币政策工具何时推出 。 近日,《人民日报》发布评论员文章《集中精力办好自己的事 增强有效应对美关税冲击的信 心》。文章指出,未来根据形势需要,降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地,随时 可以出台;财政政策已明确要加大支出强度、加快支出进度;将以超常规力度提振国内消费, 加快落实既定政策,并适时出台一批储备政策;以实实在在的政策措施坚决稳住资本市场,稳 定市场信心,相关预案政策将陆续出台。 4 月 8 日 早 间 , 中 国 人 民 银 行 新 闻 发 言 人 就 支 持 中 央 汇 金 公 司 稳 定 资 本 市 场 答 记 者 问 , 其 表 示,中国人民银行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数基金,并在必要时向中央 汇金公司提供充足的再贷款支持,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 多名受访人士告诉记者,目前来看,降准降息的落地时点仍需平衡汇率、长债利率、 银行息差等多重因素,而 ...
史诗级暴跌后,你需要知道的12个事实
表舅是养基大户· 2025-04-07 12:31
昨天说标普500连续两日下跌超10%,是5-10年一遇的市场调整,可以载入史册。 今天,A股和港股也急着青史留名了,下图,是财通孙彬彬团队做的,把今天的波动,和历史上几次对比一下。 A股这边,比20年初那次,其实跌幅更大, 近3000只个股跌停 ,占比接近60%,从这个角度看,比这更惨的,只有2015年的6月了,彼时 80%以 上的个股单日跌停(当时上市公司数量少,跌停的个股在2000只出头); 而港股这边, 恒生指数单日跌超13% ,上图说了,一共4次比这跌幅更大,而进入21世纪后,和今天能媲美的,只有2008年10月的全球金融危机 期间了(当时单日最大跌幅12%多)。 所以,面对这种史诗级的暴跌,还是得留下一些对市场的观察,说不定,5-10年之后,再遇到类似的行情,还能拿出来参考一下。 我总结了十二条市场发生的"事实",大家可以依次看看,也是结合了昨天《 最全的周一开盘指南 》里的预判和应对思路,正好recall一下。 本文涉及大量按摩桥段,你们可以给暴躁的客户转一下 。 分别是: 1、普跌—— 全球人民 都处于水生活热之中。 2、有史以来首次, 国家队 主动在盘中,宣布出手加仓。 3 、 我不卖,你就没 ...