英国央行行长贝利：由于收益率曲线变陡，今年的量化紧缩审查将会非常值得关注。 ...

"因此，作为管理委员会成员，我们继续保持政策灵活性和数据依赖性才是明智之举，"Nagel表示。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员Joachim Nagel表示，在美国贸易政策和中东局势给经济前 景蒙上阴影的情况下，该行不应承诺特定的利率调整路线。 这位德国央行行长周一在弗莱堡的瓦尔特·欧肯研究所发表演讲时指出："除了中东局势的发展，未来货 币政策走向的最大不确定性因素无疑是不可预测的美国贸易政策。" 他强调，"不仅特朗普推行的关税政策可能产生的影响强度难以估量，甚至最终会产生通胀还是通缩效 应都存在变数"。 "欧元体系目前主要通过关键利率来有效调控货币政策立场，"Nagel总结道，"因此我们可以继续无后顾 之忧地被动退出货币政策购买计划。" 此前，欧洲央行行长拉加德已表示，在一年内将关键存款利率从4%下调至2%后，宽松周期已接近尾 声。但决策层内部仍存分歧——部分官员认为降息周期可能已经结束，另一些则主张需要进一步降息以 支撑经济增长。 尽管欧洲央行预计未来几年经济将重拾动力，但不确定性持续高企。乌克兰和中东地区冲突升级正在加 剧经济下行风险——就在周一，以色列加强了对伊朗的袭击，而伊朗方面誓言要对 ...

内格尔：量化紧缩对欧洲央行货币政策立场的影响有限。鉴于高度不确定性，欧洲央行无法对利率路径 作出承诺。目前尚不清楚关税是具有通胀压力还是抑制通胀。中东局势与美国贸易政策引发不确定性。 欧洲央行在利率方面处于有利地位。(新浪财经) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of quantitative tightening on the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance is limited [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank's current monetary policy remains focused on addressing inflation and economic stability despite the ongoing quantitative tightening measures [1] - The comments from ECB Governing Council member Nagel suggest a cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy in response to market conditions [1] - The overall sentiment indicates that while quantitative tightening is a factor, it does not significantly alter the ECB's strategic direction at this time [1]

英国央行：将在货币政策委员会对量化紧缩计划进行年度审查后，公布第四季度及以后任何国债出售的 相关安排。 ...

智通财经6月20日电，英国央行称，将在第三季度出售价值7.5亿英镑的短期和中期到期国债，以及6亿 英镑的长期到期国债；将在货币政策委员会对量化紧缩计划进行年度审查后，公布第四季度及以后任何 国债出售的相关安排。 英国央行：将在第三季度出售价值7.5亿英镑的短期和中期到期国债 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行正在谨慎微调其从债券市场撤出的策略，但事实仍是量化紧缩措施已经在 实施，且可能会导致部分股票出现不稳定的情况。量化紧缩政策的潜在影响可能会给日经 225 指数的进 一步上涨蒙上阴影，因为该指数本周已创下四个月来的高点。该蓝筹股指数主要由成长型股票构成，比 如优衣库母公司Fast Retailing，以及芯片相关企业Advantest 和东京电子。 三井住友日兴证券公司高级分析师Masao Muraki表示："日本央行的举措所产生的实际影响将在更长时 期内显现出来。目前我们预计量化宽松政策将进入一个减少银行系统过剩流动性阶段，这将引发对存款 的更激烈竞争，并导致市场不稳定。" 除了那些众所周知容易受到较高债券收益率影响的成长型股票外，大盘股也容易受到影响。SBI 证券公 司的首席量化分析师Akemi Hatano表示，这些股票与债券收益率之间的负相关性正在不断增强。 当然，对于资产负债表缩减会严重扰乱日本市场的担忧或许有些过度了。例如，有人可能会举例，尽管 美联储自 2022 年起开始减持资产，但美国股市总体上仍表现坚挺。 这凸显出投资者仍需保持警惕，即便日本央行本周宣布将放缓其债券 ...

宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the articles revolves around the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its potential impact on interest rates and market volatility [1][6][9] - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are price stability and full employment, with a focus on monitoring inflation data and economic indicators [3][5] - The current interest rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.50%, with cautious speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, influenced by economic data and inflation trends [7][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy framework for 2025 is characterized by high rates, gradual balance sheet reduction, and cautious rate cuts, aiming to balance inflation resilience and economic downturn risks [6][8] - The ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) is set to withdraw $95 billion monthly from the market, with predictions of its conclusion by mid-year, although some forecasts suggest it may extend into the third quarter [8] - Key points to watch during the Federal Reserve's announcement include the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts, geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and recent economic data showing a decline in retail sales and industrial production [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded 3%, surpassing the government's and Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to market speculation about the timing of interest rate hikes [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan is committed to a monetary normalization path, gradually reducing its bond purchases starting from April 2026 while decreasing its holdings of Japanese government bonds [1][3]. - The current inflation rate in Japan is over 3%, prompting market attention on the timing of potential interest rate increases, with the Bank of Japan monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs and domestic political developments [1][4]. Group 2: Government Bond Holdings - The Bank of Japan holds approximately 560 trillion yen in government bonds, with internal consensus indicating that this amount is considered "excessive" [3]. - The Bank of Japan plans to exclude government bond purchases from its monetary policy tools, actively pursuing a quantitative tightening route to reduce its bond holdings [3][4]. Group 3: Future Rate Hikes and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's President, Ueda, indicated that the timing for future interest rate hikes will be based on a comprehensive assessment of various data and information, without providing a clear stance [4][5]. - Market expectations for interest rate hikes are increasing, with probabilities of 9% for July, 20% for September, and 24% for October [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in late July and geopolitical developments may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rate hikes [5].