| 燃料油早报 | | --- | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/25 | 414.85 | 468.83 | -1.74 | 653.84 | -185.01 | 22.12 | 53.98 | | 2025/06/26 | 413.96 | 474.16 | -2.49 | 661.27 | -187.11 | 23.04 | 60.20 | | 2025/06/27 | 411.99 | 474.54 | -2.26 | 644.22 | -169.68 | 20.75 | 62.55 | | 2025/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

7月1日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA（Vehicle Inventory Alert Index）显示，2025年6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为56.6%，同比下降5.7个百分点，环比上升 3.9个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 多家车企公布6月销量数据 比亚迪7月1日公布产销快报显示，6月新能源汽车销量382585辆，本年累计汽车销量215万辆；吉利汽车 6月汽车销量236036辆，同比增长42%。吉利汽车将全年销售目标上调11%，从271万辆上调至300万 辆。长城汽车6月销量为11.07万台，同比增长12.86%。 新势力方面，鸿蒙智行6月单月全系交付52747辆；零跑汽车6月全系交付48006台，同比增长超138%；6 月理想汽车交付新车36279辆；小鹏6月共交付新车34611台，同比增长224%；蔚来公司6月交付24925辆 汽车，同比增长17.5%。 雷军：小米YU7将开启限时改配，锁单用户可参与 6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为56.6%，同比下降5.7个百分点 广汽集团在互动平台表示，华望汽车作为广汽集团与华为战 ...

美国防部暂停向乌克兰提供部分承诺的军火 智通财经7月2日电，据央视新闻报道，因担心美国武器库存过低，美国国防部已停止向乌克兰运送部分 防空导弹和其他精确制导武器。知情人士透露称，美国炮弹、防空导弹和精确制导武器的总量正在减 少。暂停向乌克兰提供部分援助的最初决定是在6月初做出的，但直到现在才生效。 ...

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，6月27日当周，美国API原油库存 +68万桶，之前一周 -427.7万桶。 ...

Core Insights - The API reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 680,000 barrels last week, contrary to expectations of a decrease of 2.257 million barrels [1] - The previous week's inventory showed a decrease of 4.277 million barrels, indicating a significant shift in inventory trends [1] Inventory Data - Current inventory increase: 680,000 barrels [1] - Expected inventory change: decrease of 2.257 million barrels [1] - Previous inventory change: decrease of 4.277 million barrels [1]

Core Insights - The API refined oil inventory in the U.S. decreased by 3.458 million barrels for the week ending June 28, which was a larger decline than the expected decrease of 1.65 million barrels and the previous value of a decrease of 1.026 million barrels [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Changes** - The refined oil inventory saw a significant drop of 3.458 million barrels [1] - The expected decline was 1.65 million barrels, indicating a stronger than anticipated reduction in inventory levels [1] - The previous week's inventory change was a decrease of 1.026 million barrels, highlighting a notable shift in inventory trends [1]

美国至6月28日当周API库欣原油库存 -141.7万桶，前值-7.5万桶。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 increased by 680,000 barrels, contrasting with the expected decrease of 2.257 million barrels and the previous decrease of 4.277 million barrels [1]

Core Insights - The API gasoline inventory in the U.S. for the week ending June 28 increased by 1.92 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 660,000 barrels and the previous value of 764,000 barrels [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Data** - API gasoline inventory rose by 1.92 million barrels [1] - Expected increase was 660,000 barrels [1] - Previous week's inventory change was 764,000 barrels [1]