Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft commodities: International raw sugar has mixed factors. Brazilian sugarcane production has recovered, but there are also factors like narrowed sugar - ethanol price spread and fires. In China, the new sugar - making season has started with high imports, causing supply pressure. For pulp, although the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support. For double - offset paper, the upward drive is unclear despite the approaching peak season. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate both overseas and in China. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to be in a range, and for jujubes, short - selling is recommended [3][4][7][8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval approach due to the new - season expected difference and trading value disputes. The support range is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short - sell at high prices as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10500 - 11000, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, use short - term operations as raw sugar rebounds slightly and Zhengzhou sugar stabilizes at a low level. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range as the supply pressure remains and the finished paper price is low. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short - sell on rebounds as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the upward height may be limited. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, use an interval approach as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and state - reserve selling news cause price fluctuations. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a 44.59% month - on - month increase but an 18.39% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative exports were about 464,300 tons, a 6.0% year - on - year decrease. As of September 11, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 255,800 tons, a 50,400 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 143,100 - ton year - on - year decrease. The estimated national apple production is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. In the spot market, Shandong's apple prices are stable, and the prices of early - maturing varieties vary [19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9321 tons, a 0.95% month - on - month decrease but a 78.32% year - on - year increase. The market arrival volume is low, and the trading atmosphere is light [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, a 1.6% decrease from 2024, and the sugar - extraction rate decreased by 2.9% to 144.2 kg per ton. On September 15, the closing price of ICE raw sugar was 16.67 cents per pound. The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment is 4556 yuan per ton within the quota and 5805 yuan per ton outside the quota. Spot sugar prices in some regions are stable or slightly down [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Due to low domestic prices and sufficient supply, customers demand a price cut for imported bleached softwood pulp. Some suppliers may adjust prices. The price of imported NBSK is stable at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. Suppliers have raised the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper is 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton, and some prices are down. In other regions like Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan, prices are stable or slightly adjusted, and the market demand is weak [28][29]. - **Cotton Market**: Brazil's cotton picking progress is 90%, and the processing progress exceeds 30%. Egypt's cotton net export signing decreased by 60.7% week - on - week. Australia's cotton harvest progress is about 85%, and new - cotton sowing has started in some areas. In July 2025, the US cotton product import volume decreased by 1.57% year - on - year, and the import volume from China decreased significantly [30][31]. Part III: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Apple 2601 is 8269, a 0.42% decrease; Jujube 2601 is 10805, a 0.55% decrease; Sugar 2601 is 5547, a 0.04% decrease; Pulp 2511 is 5068, a 0.24% increase; Cotton 2601 is 13895, a 0.07% increase [33]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan per catty, unchanged month - on - month but a 0.20 - yuan increase year - on - year; jujubes are 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10 - yuan month - on - month decrease and a 5.30 - yuan year - on - year decrease; sugar is 5890 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but a 500 - yuan year - on - year decrease; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 400 - yuan year - on - year decrease; double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) is 4500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 600 - yuan year - on - year decrease; cotton is 15300 yuan per ton, a 51 - yuan month - on - month increase and a 426 - yuan year - on - year increase [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No relevant content provided. Part V: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples is 167, a 32 - point month - on - month increase and a 447 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 395, a 435 - point month - on - month increase and a 1140 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 23, unchanged month - on - month but a 9 - point year - on - year decrease, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton is 35, unchanged month - on - month but a 70 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [60]. Part VI: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 8900, a 226 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2804 - unit year - on - year increase. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 11268, a 57 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2244 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 244834, a 186 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 236181 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4759, a 140 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2638 - unit year - on - year decrease [86]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month contract of corn is in a downward trend. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price has no significant fluctuations. The downstream feed mills mainly use inventory and make small - scale replenishments. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans reached a two - week high on Tuesday. The domestic soybean meal spot market continues to fluctuate. The previous negative factors in the supply - demand report and the spot market have been digested. With sufficient domestic supply and increased apparent consumption, the price will mainly fluctuate. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. The price of domestic oil futures has strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise and breaking through the 10,000 - yuan/ton mark. The market atmosphere is generally optimistic, and the oils are in a strong - side fluctuation. The strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs continues to rebound. The futures price has lifted from the bottom due to spot market support, but the inference of a downward trend in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position. Continuously monitor the impact of the breeding side's replenishment and elimination sentiment on supply and market sentiment [2]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side still exerts pressure on the price. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 11 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price continuing to decline. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price of the sales area has not changed. The overall market sentiment is bearish. In the short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to optimistic export expectations and uncertain crop yields. The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays. The domestic oil futures market strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and the strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rebounded, and the futures price lifted from the bottom. However, the trend of production capacity decline needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side exerts pressure on the price, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [2]. Market Information - The外交部 has no information on whether Chinese and US leaders will talk this week [3]. - Kenanga Research predicts that edible oil prices, including palm oil, will remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [3]. - OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna on September 18 - 19 to discuss updating member countries' production capacity estimates [3]. - As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills increased by 2.71% to 64.99%, and the total soybean crushing volume increased by 101,300 tons to 2.4298 million tons [3]. - Huachu.com will conduct a central reserve frozen pork rotation and delivery auction on September 18, with 15,000 tons of domestic frozen pork up for auction [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Presented the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: Presented the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][17][18][24]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won multiple awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - For protein meal, the night - session of soybean meal showed weak fluctuations, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With expectations of improved domestic supply, short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. For oils, the night - session of oils showed strong performance. Despite the lower - than - expected August palm oil exports from Malaysia, the bearish impact has been mostly digested. Due to flood concerns in Sabah and strong Indian imports, short - term oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8418, 9482, and 10053 respectively, with price changes of 42, 60, and 153, and percentage changes of 0.50%, 0.64%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the closing prices were 3041, 2530, and 8844, with price changes of - 1, 21, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.03%, 0.84%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87, compared to previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared to previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4383 ringgit/ton, 1043 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 286 dollars/ton. The price changes were - 42, 6, 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 0.95%, 0.55%, 1.72%, and 0.07% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8640 and 8750, with percentage changes of 0.70% and 0.69%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9510 and 9400, with percentage changes of 0.85% and 0.86% [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 590, compared to a previous value of - 610. The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 222 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - **Profits**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992, compared to previous values of - 287, 13, - 176, 203, 722, and 891 [2]. Industry Information - **Brazilian Exports and Production**: Brazil's September soybean export forecast rose to 753 million tons from 743 million tons the previous week. September soybean meal export forecast rose to 219 million tons from 211 million tons, and corn export forecast reached 712 million tons from 696 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remained at 17030 million tons, 2025 export forecast remained at 10950 million tons, and 2025 crushing forecast was raised to 5850 million tons [3]. MPOb Report - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's August palm oil production was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease. The inventory at the end of August was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, and the US corn has rebounded. It may continue to lower the US corn yield later, with the US corn oscillating at the bottom. China has returned to a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a total of 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,141 yuan. The flat - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price has declined. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. [5][7] - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch spot price in the northeast is also weak. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are presented. For example, C2601 closed at 2,155, down 1 with a decline of 0.05%, and its trading volume decreased by 2.35% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, etc., along with price changes and basis. Starch spot prices are given for enterprises like Longfeng, Zhongliang, etc., along with price changes and basis. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,230 yuan with no price change, and the basis is - 26 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09) are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 70, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation affects the domestic market. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price in the north is stable, while the supply in North China increases and the price drops. The wheat - corn price difference expands, and wheat continues to substitute. The breeding demand is weak, and the inventory of feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. It is expected that by the end of September, North China corn may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang may be below 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and the corn price is stable. The starch inventory decreases. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the starch demand is weak, and enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is advisable to mainly wait and see for 01 corn and try to go long after it stabilizes [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions close out their short positions in corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contracts, and the spreads of corn starch 01 contracts [14][15][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market had a fair negotiation atmosphere with a weakening spot basis. The market is expected to see a supply return, and the spot basis is gradually declining. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was average. In the short - term, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are still tight, and the basis has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply and demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation okay, basis weakened, 9 - month goods traded at 01 discount of 80, etc. [5] - Basis: Spot price 4610, 01 contract basis - 62, disk premium, bearish [6] - Inventory: PTA factory inventory 3.84 days, decreased by 0.06 days, bullish [6] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [6] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [5] - Expectation: Supply return, basis decline, price follows cost, watch device and demand [5] - **MEG** - Fundamental: Price center adjusted low, trading average, disk fluctuated slightly up at noon [7] - Basis: Spot price 4377, 01 contract basis 89, disk discount, bullish [7] - Inventory: East China inventory 37.24 tons, decreased by 0.73 tons, bullish [7] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [7] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [7] - Expectation: Port inventory may rise slightly this week, short - term tight supply - demand, far - month loose, watch device [7] 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, export, demand, inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of EG production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price - related Charts**: Include bottle - chip spot price, production margin, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, month - to - month spread, spot spread, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31] - **Inventory Analysis Charts**: Show the inventory days of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers in different regions and time periods from 2020 - 2025 [40] - **Upstream and Downstream开工率Charts**: Display the opening rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit - related Charts**: Illustrate the production margins of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][61] 3.5利多因素 - The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [10]. - With the approach of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3.6利空因素 - The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - **Lead**: Supply is temporarily tightened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals is reduced. The lead price has broken through 17,000 yuan/ton. However, limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc remains weak, but the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the upward movement of the London zinc price, which in turn boosts Shanghai zinc. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc is expected to be in a moderately strong consolidation in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; futures主力合约收盘价 is 17,160 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 2,001.50 dollars/ton, down 0.79%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead price is 8.57, up 1.51%. Futures active contract trading volume is 58,666 hands, down 7.51%; futures active contract open interest is 47,056 hands, down 9.83%. LME inventory is 225,625 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 59,417 tons, down 0.11% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw materials and losses, the refinery's operating enthusiasm has weakened, and the scope of production cuts has expanded, with the current operating rate below 30% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Protect the profits of previous long positions [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,160 yuan/ton; futures主力合约收盘价 is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 2,982 dollars/ton, up 0.88%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc price is 7.48, down 0.85%. Futures active contract trading volume is 97,830 hands, down 5.57%; futures active contract open interest is 92,003 hands, down 5.83%. LME inventory is 50,150 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 51,371 tons, up 11.91% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: After the impact of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipates, the downstream enterprises' operating rate has increased significantly, and demand has improved. Also, as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Cost - end crude oil prices face resistance in both rising and falling, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate widely. The premium of diluted asphalt, the raw material, remains stable for now, and there is no trend - based guidance from the cost end. In September, the asphalt supply continued to increase, and terminal demand rebounded month - on - month, gradually entering the peak season. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain inventory continued to decline. Among them, refinery inventory stabilized at a low level, and social inventory declined from a high level. Current refinery profits can support high supply, but social inventory is expected to continue active destocking before the end of the year, adding additional supply to the market. The refinery destocking speed will slow down, and inventory pressure will gradually increase before the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the medium - to - long - term cracking spread is expected to weaken. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - Trading strategies include: a unilateral position of oscillation; an arbitrage of a weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; and an option strategy of waiting and seeing [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Cost - end crude oil prices are in a wide - range short - term oscillation. In September, asphalt supply and demand are both strong, with inventory in the industrial chain decreasing. Refinery inventory is at a low - level standstill, and social inventory is falling from a high level. Refinery profits support high supply, but inventory pressure will increase by the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the BU2511 contract is expected to trade between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: oscillation; Arbitrage: weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; Option: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Low - price Resources and Limited Demand Release**: There are many low - price asphalt resources in the market, and demand release is limited. Prices in different regions vary: prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan and Chongqing areas decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton; prices in North China increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton; and prices in other regions remained stable [9][11]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices depend on crude oil trends, fluctuating narrowly with crude oil during the week. Regional bases remained stable. Shandong's basis was 292 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton month - on - month; East China's basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; South China's basis was 132 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton [12]. - **Refinery Operating Rates**: Shandong's operating rate declined, while those in North and Central China increased significantly. By September 11, the operating rate in Northwest China was 63.78%, up 16.95%; in North and Central China, it was 31.59%, up 11.94%; in Shandong, it was 26.65%, down 10.88% [15][16]. - **Refinery Inventory**: The overall refinery inventory level decreased. By September 11, the inventory rate in Northwest China was 26.83%, down 0.97%; in Northeast China, it was 13.60%, down 0.37%; in North China and Shandong, it was 28.90%, down 1.16% [18][19]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory level continued to decline. On September 8, the social inventory rate was 31.39%, down 0.89% from September 4; on September 11, it was 31.31%, down 0.08% from September 8 [21][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: On September 12, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3368 yuan/ton; Brent crude oil closed at $65.48 per barrel at 15:00. The refinery operating rate on September 11 was 38.38%, and the inventory rate was 26.69%. The social inventory rate on September 11 was 31.31% [25]. - **Raw Material Supply**: In August, Venezuela's crude oil exports were 641,044 barrels per day, a 12% month - on - month increase. Exports to China were 123,871 barrels per day, a 78% month - on - month decrease [73][74].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pulse Daily Report - September 15, 2025: Uncertainties Increase, Pressure on the Disk to Fall" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The recent soybean and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by macro - factors and operate in a volatile manner. The domestic soybean meal disk may have limited deep - fall space in the future, and the rapeseed meal has certain price support. [4][9] - It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips, go long on the MRM05 spread on dips, and buy call options. [10] Group 4: Market Quotes Summary - **Futures and Spot Quotes**: Today, the US soybean disk declined slightly. The domestic soybean meal disk fell significantly due to potential supply improvement, and the rapeseed meal disk also dropped significantly affected by the sharp decline in soybean meal. For example, the soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3042, down 37; the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed at 2504, down 27. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined significantly. For instance, the soybean meal 15 spread was 238 today, down 21 from yesterday; the rapeseed meal 15 spread was 111 today, down 14 from yesterday. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads also changed. The current value of the soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 538, down 10 from yesterday; the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.753, up 0.05 from yesterday. [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The carry - over stock in the old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a small adjustment, with a slight decrease in yield per unit but a slight increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. [5] - **South American Soybeans**: The old - crop supply - demand in South America was relatively loose. The soybean production in major exporting countries was expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. [5] - **International Soybean Meal**: The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was obvious. The soybean crushing volume in major producing areas was expected to increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly. [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient market supply. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. The rapeseed meal demand gradually weakened, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, and there was still supply pressure. [7] Group 6: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but there was no clear information. The market was still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, as the market gradually stabilized, macro - disturbances decreased. [8] Group 7: Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production changed little, and the inventory pressure still existed. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price pressure also existed. [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. [9] Group 8: Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips. [10] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. [10] - **Options Trading**: Buy call options. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]