| | | 甲醇日评20251119: 短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2030.00 | 2029.00 | 1.00 | 0.05% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2153.00 | 2145.00 | 8.00 | 0.37% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2204.00 | 2200.00 | 4.00 | 0.18% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2002.50 | 2015.00 | -12.50 | -0.62% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2170.00 | 2170.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2010.00 | 2025.00 | -15.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "oscillating", suggesting a cautious and slightly bearish approach in investment operations [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market shows a pattern of loose supply, weak demand, high - level inventory, and differentiated profit performance. The futures market is likely to continue the weak oscillating pattern in the short term due to factors such as weak downstream demand and general cost - side support [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the overall methanol supply is in a loose state. Domestic production has some devices under maintenance and some resuming production, with relatively stable capacity utilization and output. Imports have increased compared to last week, and port inventories remain high with subsequent arrivals expected [2]. Demand - The overall methanol demand is weak. The methanol - to - olefins industry has limited consumption, and traditional downstream industries show differentiated performance, with some facing profit pressure and having cautious purchasing intentions [2]. Inventory - The overall methanol inventory is at a high level with regional differentiation. Port inventories are historically high, and inland inventories vary in different regions, with the overall inventory suppressing prices [2]. Profit - Methanol profit shows a differentiated pattern in terms of process and industry chain. Coal - based methanol profit has a slight adjustment, coke - oven gas - based profit declines slightly, and natural - gas - based methanol continues to be in the red. Downstream industries also have different profit performances, and the overall methanol industry chain still faces profit pressure [2]. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The easing of Sino - US trade policies is beneficial. On October 30, the leaders of the two countries met, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year, and pause some export control rules and investigations. China will make corresponding adjustments [2]. Investment and Trading - The methanol futures market is in a weak state, with the core trading logic centered around the supply - demand fundamentals. The short - side pressure from high port inventories and loose supply suppresses prices, while the long - side support from low valuations and prices is limited. It is recommended to be cautious and slightly bearish in investment operations, and both single - side and arbitrage trading suggest a wait - and - see approach [2]. Price and Market Data - The spot prices of methanol in various regions show different degrees of decline this week. For example, the price of imported methanol in Taicang decreased by 1.51% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行，目前处于季节性用电淡季，新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长，电厂日耗低位，港口出货以终端长协为主，市场参与者观望情绪浓厚，降库压力仍存，产地维持正常生产，下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚，天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修，导致开工下滑，但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点，占比70%以上，天然气制开工有明显季节性，焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面，非CTO总量为136,653吨，煤制（不含联醇）为110,000吨，天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures declined significantly. As of the afternoon close on April 3rd, methanol weighted dropped 3.23% from the previous week, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton. Next week, the fundamentals of methanol are expected to weaken further, and medium - term bearish factors are accumulating. With the resumption of domestic methanol plants and increased imports, combined with the arrival of the downstream maintenance season in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance in the far - month is likely to be loose. Considering the significant adverse changes in the macro - environment, methanol futures may continue to fall, and short - selling opportunities in methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also look into selling hedging opportunities for methanol [5][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market showed a weak trend due to supply recovery, with obvious regional coordinated declines. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-3.07%) from the previous week; the weekly average price in Taicang was 2,584 yuan/ton, down 97.8 yuan/ton (-3.65%); the weekly average price in the gas - based production area of Sichuan and Chongqing was 2,429.17 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan/ton (-0.93%). In the futures market, methanol weighted fell 3.23%, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,873,995 tons, an increase of 54,650 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 86.21%, a 3.00% increase from the previous week. There were more restarts than maintenance in domestic methanol plants this week, leading to the increase in capacity utilization [14] 3.2.2 Downstream Capacity Utilization - As of April 3rd, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Yangtze River Delta was 78.93%, up 1.65 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.51%; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of methane chloride was 75.14%, down from the previous week; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 52.50%, up slightly from the previous week [18] 3.2.3 Orders to be Fulfilled - As of April 2nd, 2025, the orders to be fulfilled by Chinese methanol sample enterprises were 223,300 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons (5.43%) from the previous period. The orders to be fulfilled by enterprises in the northwest decreased by 3.73% week - on - week, while those in the east increased by 6.60%. The orders to be fulfilled by sample enterprises in the north remained stable, those in the central region decreased by 34.90%, those in the southwest decreased by 5.32%, and those in the northeast decreased by 22.22% [21] 3.2.4 Enterprise Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 311,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons (4.95%) from the previous period. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest decreased by 9.03%, while that in the east increased by 3.31%. The inventory of sample enterprises in the north increased by 4.20%, that in the central region increased by 8.45%, that in the southwest decreased by 3.95%, and that in the northeast decreased by 2.94% [27] 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 616,100 tons, a decrease of 157,700 tons (-20.38%) from the previous period. The ports continued to significantly reduce inventory, with slow unloading of foreign vessels and good提货 at major terminals in Jiangsu and stable demand in Zhejiang. The ports in South China also significantly reduced inventory [32] 3.2.6 Profit - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises declined overall. The average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 417 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the previous week; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 234.70 yuan/ton, down 14.69%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shandong was 260.70 yuan/ton, down 12.55%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shanxi was 327.10 yuan/ton, down 6.83%; the average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 130 yuan/ton, down 8.00% [33] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's estimated methanol production is about 1.8836 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.65%, an increase from the current period. Domestic methanol demand may decline. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 316,500 tons, with little change from the current period. The port methanol inventory is expected to change little, and the focus is on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. Overall, methanol futures and spot prices are likely to continue to be weak [39][40]