Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]

Core Insights - OPEC+ is aiming to regain market share from U.S. shale oil producers by potentially lowering oil prices to $55-60 per barrel, which could create uncertainty for other producers [4][9][10] - The U.S. has seen a 60% increase in oil production over the past decade, while OPEC's production has declined, leading to a shift in market dynamics [4][6] - The cost of production for U.S. shale oil producers has risen, with many needing oil prices above $65 per barrel to be profitable, compared to significantly lower costs for Saudi Arabia and Russia [5][12] OPEC+ Strategy - OPEC+ has shifted from production cuts to increasing output, with a focus on reclaiming lost market share [9][10] - Saudi Arabia and Russia are collaborating to implement strategies that could pressure other OPEC+ members and U.S. shale producers [9][10] - The organization has not officially declared a price target but is prepared to maintain oil prices around $60 per barrel to balance their budgets [13] Market Dynamics - The Brent crude oil price has fluctuated between $70-80 per barrel, recently dropping to around $58 due to OPEC+ actions and global economic concerns [10] - U.S. shale oil production is facing challenges as prime drilling areas are depleting, leading to increased production costs and potential declines in output [5][10] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased, indicating a potential downturn in production capacity [10][11] Financial Implications - The price war initiated by OPEC+ could lead to widespread financial strain on oil companies, resulting in reduced capital expenditures, layoffs, and dividend cuts [11] - Countries reliant on oil revenues, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, face budgetary pressures if oil prices remain low, with estimates suggesting Russia needs prices above $77 per barrel and Saudi Arabia above $90 to balance their budgets [12][13]

Core Insights - The U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached its highest level since October 21, 2022, as of the week ending May 16 [1] - Gasoline inventory saw the largest increase since January 31, 2025 [1] - Commercial crude oil inventory, excluding strategic reserves, is at its highest level since July 5, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月21日） 能源： 2. 国际锡协会首席代表：缅甸佤邦已于2025年4月下旬正式获准全面恢复锡矿生产，目前正在逐步复 苏。 3. 阿根廷经济部长：小麦和大麦出口免税延长至2026年3月31日。豁免不适用于大豆、玉米、向日葵、 高粱或副产品。 4. 美国国务卿鲁比奥：美国已经向阿联酋和其他国家表示，他们正在把苏丹的冲突变成一场代理人战 争。 1. 美官员：情报显示以色列可能准备打击伊朗核设施 但最终决定尚未作出。 2. 伊朗副外长：伊朗已收到关于举行下一轮美伊核谈判的提议，目前正在进行审查。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊：我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。 4. 乌克兰外长：对俄罗斯石油的价格上限应降至每桶30美元。 5. 印度计划到2040年花费100亿美元购买112艘原油运输船。 6. 美国准备再延长雪佛龙在委内瑞拉的豁免期60天。 7. 卡塔尔能源公司CEO：卡塔尔北油田东扩项目将于2026年中期投产。 8. 波兰石油公司：在钻探过程中发现了一个新的较小油田，储量可达200万桶石油。 11. 哈萨克斯坦能源部：预计今年Tengiz油田产量不会进一步上升。哈萨克斯坦正 ...

为何欧盟此时要出此 "狠招" 呢？部分分析师认为，近期国际油价出现回升趋势，若不加以限制，俄罗斯可能会借此增加财政收入。欧盟此举就是要保持对 俄罗斯的经济压力，确保其石油收入不会因油价上涨而增多。而且，此前俄罗斯通过 "影子舰队" 等方式，在一定程度上规避了 G7 的价格上限，使得该政 策效果未达预期，这也促使欧盟考虑进一步下调限价。 如果欧盟成功将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元 / 桶，对俄罗斯经济的打击将是巨大的。俄罗斯作为全球重要的石油出口国，石油收入是其财政的重要支 柱。价格上限降低，直接意味着俄罗斯石油出口收入大幅减少，政府财政面临的压力会更大。俄罗斯的很多公共项目、民生保障以及军事开支等在一定程度 上都依赖石油收入，收入减少将导致这些方面面临资金短缺问题。 近日，国际能源市场又起波澜。欧盟委员会贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯透露，欧盟计划在七国集团（G7）财长会议上提议，将俄罗斯海运石油的价格上限从 目前的每桶 60 美元降至 50 美元。这一消息瞬间引发全球关注，无疑给本就面临经济困境的俄罗斯带来更大压力。 自 2022 年俄乌冲突爆发以来，西方国家就对俄罗斯实施了一系列制裁措施，而石油价格上限政策 ...

邓正红软实力表示，美伊核谈与俄乌和谈走势受关注，谨慎预期经济前景，石油软实力运行处于守势， 周二（5月20日）国际油价小幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油6月期货结算 价每桶跌0. 13美元至62.56美元，跌幅0.21%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油7月期货结算价每桶跌0.16美 元至65.38美元，跌幅0.24%。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊表示，对美伊核谈能否达成协议持怀疑态度。德黑 兰方面正在评估开展第五轮谈判的提案。美国总统特朗普表态未准备配合欧洲对俄实施新制裁，而普京 与乌克兰同意立即启动停火谈判。 市场认为，若制裁解除，美伊两国协议将使伊朗原油出口量每日增加30万至40万桶。就目前情势看，俄 乌冲突即时解决的可能性微乎其微。尽管可能促使俄罗斯向市场增加供油，但受欧佩克联盟义务约束， 其实际放量时间与规模仍存变数。在美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京通话后，欧盟和英国宣布对俄罗 斯实施新的制裁，而没有等待美国加入。在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，对石油需求的持续担忧让油 价承压。乌克兰外交部长安德烈•西比哈（Andriy Sybiha）周二表示，乌方希望七国集团（G7）将俄罗 斯海运石油的价格上 ...

摘要：【图】2025年3月福建省石油沥青产量数据 2025年1-3月石油沥青产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，福建省规模以上工业企业石油沥青产量累计达到了33.1万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了48.9%，增速较2024年同期高29.8个百分点，继续保持增长，增 速较同期全国高46.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石油沥青产量825.4万吨的比重为4.0%。 图表：福建省石油沥青产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年3月石油沥青产量分析： 单独看2025年3月份，福建省规模以上工业企业石油沥青产量达到了11.2万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，3月份的产量增长了81.4%，增速较2024年同期高121.7个百分点，增速较同期全国高73.7个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石油沥青产量305.6万吨的比重为3.7%。 图表：福建省石油沥青产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油的现状和发展趋势 化工行业现状与发展趋势 日化市场现状及前景分析 ...

乌克兰财长：建议七国集团讨论限制俄罗斯石油价格。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko suggests that the G7 should discuss lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports [1] Group 1 - The G7's potential discussion on the price cap aims to further restrict Russia's oil revenue [1] - Lowering the price cap could impact global oil markets and Russia's economic stability [1]