Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The statement emphasized increased uncertainty compared to March, highlighting risks of high unemployment and rising inflation[1] - Powell summarized the current economic situation as "good now, uncertain future, let's wait and see"[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Net exports negatively impacted Q1 GDP, but private domestic final purchases remained strong[1] - The labor market is stable, not a significant source of inflationary pressure[1] - Short-term inflation expectations and consumer confidence indicators have weakened, but not strongly correlated with hard data like consumer spending[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy - High uncertainty exists regarding tariffs' scale, timing, and impact on the economy, inflation, and employment[2] - The Fed's policy response to potential supply chain issues from tariffs is deemed ineffective[2] - The Fed is not currently facing a dilemma between inflation and employment, allowing for a patient approach to monetary policy[2] Group 4: Comparison with 2019 - In 2019, the Fed's rate cuts were preemptive due to clear risks from tariffs and low inflation pressures, with unemployment dropping from 4% to 3.6%[3] - Current conditions present a greater likelihood of facing inflation and employment challenges, making preemptive cuts less feasible[4] - Inflation remains above target, with short-term inflation expectations at risk of decoupling[4] Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market reactions were relatively mild, with slight increases in stock indices and a decrease in bond yields[2] - The implied policy rate for year-end rose from 3.52% to 3.565%, while the probability of a rate cut in June dropped from 33.7% to 20.1%[2]

隔夜凌晨2点，美联储议息会议，如市场预期板，选择了按兵不动。此时的美股波动不大，毕竟大家已经消化了5月份美联储不降息的预期，但是随后鲍威 尔的讲话，让市场感到一丝不安。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔说了22次"wait"，啥意思？就是在川普的关税战情况下，其实鲍威尔也不知道未来美国的通胀会不会升高，升多高，万一6月份 大家没有谈拢真的将关税加这么高，会不会造成更严重的失业，甚至引发经济衰退，谁也说不准。 这就是为什么，川普炮轰鲍威尔，让其降息，甚至一度威胁要解雇他，鲍威尔都非常强硬的姿态回应。因为美联储工作的核心就是维护通胀和失业率稳 定。鲍威尔需要留下足够的"子弹（降息空间）"去应对未来可能发生的危机，就算迟一点应对也不愿意，提前降息可能会提前诱发危机诞生。 懂了吧，鲍威尔此时和你我一般无二，在川普面前，都需要走一步看一步。 大早上，川普发推表示在上午十点（北京时间今晚十点）公布一个大消息。目前媒体猜测，可能是会发布与其他国家关税谈判相关消息。目前，最有可能 得是英美之间会达成相应协议。 所以，黄金今天下午急速跳水，市场的避险情绪进一步减弱。在明天我们与老美在瑞士之间展开会谈，A股今天则进一步的走强。 来看一下深 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time, indicating a significant shift in its stance [1][2] - The Fed's statement acknowledges an increased risk of rising inflation and unemployment rates, marking a rare admission of current economic challenges [2][3] - The Fed's reluctance to adjust interest rates suggests a defensive strategy, indicating concerns about potential market instability [4][6] Group 2 - In contrast to the Fed's indecision, domestic authorities have proactively lowered interest rates to stabilize the currency, demonstrating a more decisive approach [7][8] - The market's resilience is attributed to these preemptive measures, despite skepticism from some observers regarding the effectiveness of such actions [9] - The overall market direction appears positive, but volatility and cautious institutional behavior may lead to prolonged periods of stagnation, affecting retail investors' confidence [11]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数下降幅度大于预期，表明劳动力市场继续保持平稳，尽管 关税带来的风险正在加大。美国劳工部公布，截至5月3日当周初请失业金人数经季节调整后减少1.3万 人，至22.8万人，而市场预期为23万人。这一下降在一定程度上抵消了纽约州学校春季假期的影响，春 季假期导致申请失业救济的人数达到两个月来的高点。然而，经济学家表示，企业和消费者调查的疲弱 影响到初请失业金、通胀和就业报告等所谓的硬数据只是时间问题。周三，美联储将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间，政策制定者指出，"失业率和通胀上升的风险已经增加。" 美国初请失业金人数降幅超过预期，但关税影响或即将在数据上体现 ...

美国4月26日当周续请失业救济人数 187.9万人，预期 189.5万人，前值 191.6万人。 ...

美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数四周均值 22.7万人，前值22.6万人。 ...

Core Insights - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. as of the week ending April 26 is 1.879 million, slightly below the expected 1.886 million and a revision from the previous value of 1.916 million to 1.908 million [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Claims Data** - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits stand at 1.879 million [1] - The forecast for continuing claims was 1.886 million [1] - The prior value was revised from 1.916 million to 1.908 million [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming announcement of the initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 3, which is scheduled to be released at 20:30 Beijing time [1]

美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].