期货热点追踪 知名机构认为8月LME铜价10050美元的预测存在上行风险，伦铜昨日一度触及10000关口，新一轮牛市 或将开启？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Palm oil futures prices have increased by over 1%, supported by favorable fundamental factors, with analysts predicting future prices may rise to a specific range [1] Group 1 - The increase in palm oil futures prices is attributed to positive fundamental factors [1] - Analysts express optimism regarding the potential for future price increases within a defined range [1]

市场利多因素支撑，沪铜、伦铜价格小幅走高！未来需关注……点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The entire industry is experiencing losses, leading to increased expectations for policy support, which may indicate a potential bottoming out of prices for polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions suggest that short sellers may need to reconsider their positions as the outlook for polysilicon and industrial silicon prices appears to be stabilizing [1]

2025 年 7 月 2 日 硅铁：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 锰硅：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2508 | 5280 | -72 | 6,944 | 22,179 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5270 | -74 | 201,387 | 209,470 | | | 锰硅2508 | 5616 | -22 | 11,254 | 14,126 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5624 | -18 | 201,673 | 383,561 | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 ...

期货热点追踪 玻璃再度增仓跌破1000元！高供应遇上深加工订单下降，减产也救不了？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in palm oil futures continues, raising questions about whether prices can maintain support levels amid expectations of increased production [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with market participants closely monitoring price support levels [1] - There is an anticipation of increased production, which is contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [1]

| Million | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉冲高回落，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈。下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳,下游需求偏弱或限制郑棉的高度。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5月底减少33.18万吨,消化仍然 良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口 ...

相关链接 不必对棕榈油二连跌感到担忧？机构认为，在销区低库存与印尼B40支撑下，下半年将有所起色！棕榈 油价格中枢预计在……点击了解。 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. - For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and (night session) was 8,324 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 210,910 hands to 442,785 hands, and open interest decreased by 4,500 hands to 450,508 hands [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,002 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and (night session) was 7,982 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 95,869 hands to 270,622 hands, and open interest decreased by 5,507 hands to 564,645 hands [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% decrease, and (night session) was 9,452 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 86,818 hands to 214,216 hands, and open interest decreased by 8,794 hands to 319,403 hands [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,012 ringgit/ton with a 1.19% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 52.62 cents/pound with a - 0.44% decrease [1]. - **Spot Prices** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,520 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price was 1,005 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spreads** - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 124 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 238 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,090 yuan/ton, down from 1,122 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 374 yuan/ton, down from - 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down from 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, down from 62 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan/ton, down from 78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvesting progress has reached 98.3% and 55.3% respectively, and the expected yields are 50.3 million tons and 49 million tons [2]. - Due to the planned tariff increase, Argentine exporters have exported 6.1 million tons of soybeans and their derivatives since June, a 22% surge compared to the five - year average. The soybean export tariff will rise from 26% to 33% in July, and the tariffs for soybean oil and soybean meal will increase from 24.5% to 31% [5]. - Strategie Grains has raised the forecast for the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production to 19.2 million tons, a 600,000 - ton increase from last month's forecast and a 14% increase compared to 2024/25. The sunflower seed production forecast has been lowered by 300,000 tons to 10.1 million tons but is still 19% higher than 2024/25. The soybean production forecast remains at 3 million tons, 4% lower than last year [5]. - As of the week ending June 24, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 57.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed crops are at various growth stages. In 2025, Canadian farmers planted 21.5 million acres of rapeseed, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year. In Saskatchewan, the planted area decreased by 0.5%, in Alberta by 2.8%, and in Manitoba by 9.2% [6]. - As of the week ending June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 10.3% to 117,900 tons. From August 1, 2024, to June 22, 2025, exports reached 8.9319 million tons, a 52.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 1.2816 million tons [7]. - In May 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 831,193 tons, a 9.59% month - on - month decrease; rapeseed oil production was 353,218 tons, a 9.5% decrease; rapeseed meal production was 490,043 tons, a 9.76% decrease. The soybean crushing volume was 158,387 tons, a 7.97% increase; soybean oil production was 29,379 tons, a 6.64% increase; soybean meal production was 121,417 tons, a 4.66% increase [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [8].