特朗普再发"关税威胁"。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间7月1日，美国总统特朗普在乘机途中对媒体表示，对美日关税谈判前景表达 强烈质疑。他将矛头直指日本在"大米"及"汽车贸易"两大领域的政策，他威胁称美国或将对日本进口商品 加征"30%或35%的关税"，而这高于他在4月2日提出的24%关税的税率。日本广播协会（NHK）驻华盛顿 记者表示，特朗普对日本汽车产业的不满根深蒂固，这一关税威胁将使得日美谈判迎来极其严峻的局面。 针对特朗普7月1日威胁对日本征收更高关税，日本首相石破茂7月2日在就参议院选举进行的党首讨论会上 回应称，日本作为美国最大海外投资国，为美创造了最多就业岗位。他强调，"与其加征关税，不如通过 贸易来维护国家利益。" 特朗普威胁提高对日关税 就美日正在进行的谈判，特朗普1日在总统专机"空军一号"上对记者说："我不确定我们会达成协议。我对 此表示怀疑。" 特朗普形容日本"非常强硬""被惯坏了"。他表示，考虑进一步提高从日本进口商品的关税，可能增至30% 或35%。 特朗普再次抱怨日本没有从美国进口足够的汽车、大米，称日本"占了我们三四十年的便宜"。 日本官员：希望以"真诚的方式"推进谈判 据共同社报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that concerns regarding political uncertainty have not increased and should not impact government spending and trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor emphasized that the current political landscape does not pose heightened risks to economic stability [1] - Government spending is expected to remain unaffected by political uncertainties, indicating a stable fiscal environment [1] - Trade negotiations are also anticipated to proceed without disruption, reflecting confidence in ongoing economic policies [1]

Economic Negotiations Progress - The UK and US have reached a limited trade agreement covering automotive (10% tariff) and aerospace (duty-free) sectors, but steel and pharmaceutical tariffs remain unresolved [1] - Canada has restarted negotiations with the US after canceling the digital services tax on June 30, aiming to reach an agreement by July 21, while previously imposing a 50% tariff on over-quota steel without further adjustments mentioned [1] - The EU is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff but seeks quotas and exemptions for automotive and steel products, along with lower tax rates for critical industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, while insisting on digital sovereignty not being negotiable [1] - Japan faces a key obstacle with a 25% automotive tariff, with the Japanese side prepared for potential delays in negotiations, while Trump hinted at unilaterally imposing a 30%-35% tariff and threatening to issue a warning to Japan [1] - South Korea proposed a "comprehensive solution" including exemptions for automotive and steel tariffs, but the US remains cautious, with South Korea requesting an extension for negotiations, expected to be decided by July 8 [1] India-US Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations between India and the US are currently stalled, with India seeking the removal of reciprocal tariffs and concessions on steel and automotive tariffs, while maintaining agriculture as a "red line"; the US desires further reductions in tariffs on agricultural products, automobiles, and alcoholic beverages [2] US Position and Actions - The US Agriculture Secretary indicated that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow domestically, such as cocoa beans or coffee [3] - A "final ultimatum" has been issued, warning that if negotiations fail, tariffs could revert to a maximum of 50% by July 9, with Trump stating he does not plan to extend the negotiation deadline [3] - The US is adjusting its negotiation strategy by seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, allowing countries that agree to these limited agreements to avoid harsher reciprocal tariffs, while still imposing the existing 10% basic tariff; reports suggest that the US will prioritize negotiations with India before addressing issues with Japan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ambitious 90-day trade negotiation plan of the Trump administration is facing significant challenges, particularly with Japan, where negotiations have stalled over auto tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - After weeks of negotiations, the US and Japan have severe disagreements on auto tariffs, with Japan refusing to accept any agreement that retains the 25% tariff imposed by Trump [1][2]. - Trump indicated that he might unilaterally impose tariffs on Japanese imports, suggesting potential rates of "30% or 35% or any number we determine" [1]. - The Japanese government is under political pressure, especially with the upcoming Senate elections on July 20, making it difficult for them to concede on tariff issues [2]. Group 2: Broader Trade Negotiations - The US is also facing difficulties in trade negotiations with other major partners, including Canada and South Korea, with stalled talks following the US's unexpected increase in steel tariffs on Canada [2][3]. - Negotiations with Canada were briefly interrupted but resumed after Canada canceled its digital services tax plan, aiming for an agreement by July 21 [3]. - The complexity of negotiations with South Korea is heightened by issues surrounding digital trade regulations, which have caused dissatisfaction among US trade representatives [3]. Group 3: Expectations and Challenges - Despite the White House's claims of working tirelessly to renegotiate trade agreements, there is acknowledgment from Republican senators that reaching actual agreements may take longer than anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Thai business community believes that trade negotiations are unlikely to conclude quickly, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade relations [1] Group 1: Trade Outlook - Exports are expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, reflecting a significant downturn in trade performance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - There is a call for the Bank of Thailand to lower the benchmark interest rate to manage the exchange rate of the Thai baht, suggesting concerns over currency stability [1]

金十数据7月2日讯，据朝日新闻报道，日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正安排最早于本周末前往美国进行贸易 谈判。这将是赤泽亮正第八次前往美国进行贸易谈判。财经网站Forexlive分析师Justin Low表示，尽管 访问了很多次，但情况与他第一次访问时大致相同。"奔跑的表演"至少让他们看起来处境艰难。但我想 只有时间才能证明。距离7月9日的最后期限还有一周，特朗普似乎正在失去耐心。 日本贸易谈判代表将"八顾茅庐"，但或许将再次无功而返 ...

朝日新闻：日本关税谈判代表赤泽亮正安排最早于本周末访问美国，进行贸易谈判。 ...

Trade Negotiations - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan has intensified, with President Trump expressing skepticism about reaching an agreement and threatening tariffs as high as 30% to 35% on Japanese imports, significantly higher than the previously announced 24% [2] Stock Market Volatility - On July 1, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the Dow Jones up 400.17 points (0.91% increase). Notably, Tesla's stock plummeted over 5%, resulting in a loss of approximately $54.5 billion (around 390.5 billion RMB) in market value due to Trump's comments regarding Elon Musk [3] - Nvidia's stock also fell over 2% after internal insiders sold more than $1 billion in company shares over the past 12 months, raising concerns about its internal operations and executive confidence [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, rose 0.20%, while other popular Chinese stocks like Tiger Brokers and Futu Holdings declined, indicating a mixed performance in the market [3] Fiscal Policy - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill on July 1, which now requires re-evaluation by the House of Representatives due to significant amendments. The outcome of this fiscal policy is uncertain and could have profound implications for the U.S. economy and global investors [4] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while the U.S. economy is in good shape, the impact of tariffs will soon be reflected in inflation data. Most Fed members expect a rate cut later this year, with Goldman Sachs predicting cuts in September, October, and December, although the likelihood of a July cut depends on upcoming employment data [5]

美国与日本的贸易谈判陷入僵局。 据最新消息，美国总统特朗普明确表示不会推迟7月9日恢复更高关税的最后期限，并加大对日本等贸易伙伴的 施压力度。 特朗普威胁称，可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或35%或任何我们确定的数字"的关税。受此影响，7月2 日，日本股市开盘后，日经225指数直线跳水，跌幅一度扩大至1.35%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 相比之下，美国与印度的贸易谈判进展似乎比较顺利。特朗普表示，他认为印度准备降低对美国企业的贸易壁 垒，这可能为达成协议铺平道路，从而让印度避开26%的关税。 特朗普：不推迟 据央视新闻客户端，美东时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"总统专机上表示，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判 贸易协议的7月9日截止日期，并对与日本能否达成协议表示怀疑。 特朗普指出，美方已经和日本打过交道，不确定是否会达成协议，他表示："我怀疑我们和日本能否达成协 议，他们非常强硬。你必须明白，他们被宠坏了。" 特朗普称，他可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或35%或任何我们确定的数字"的关税，而这远高于他在4月2 日宣布的对日本商品的24%的关税税率。 据新华社，特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on trade partners as the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" approaches its end on July 9 [1][6] - President Trump expressed disappointment over U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding Japan's refusal to purchase U.S. rice despite facing a rice shortage [1][3] - Japan's government officials have stated that they will not sacrifice agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - Japan's agricultural sector is a significant political concern for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, especially with upcoming elections [4][5] - The U.S. has the option to export rice to Japan tariff-free up to a limit of 770,000 tons, but any imports beyond that are subject to tariffs [4] - Japan is insisting on the removal of tariffs on its automotive exports to the U.S., which has led to dissatisfaction among U.S. automakers [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. is preparing to notify countries of potential tariff increases as the July 9 deadline approaches, with rates potentially rising from temporary levels of 10% back to 11% to 50% [6][7] - The EU is willing to negotiate a trade arrangement with the U.S. but seeks lower tariffs on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and aircraft [6][7] - There are four possible outcomes for U.S.-EU negotiations, including reaching an acceptable agreement or extending the negotiation period [7] Group 4 - India is expected to reach a temporary trade agreement with the U.S., which may include increased imports of natural gas and reduced tariffs on thousands of goods [8] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are causing concerns among various countries, as they fear further economic repercussions in key industries like steel and automotive [8][9] - A significant portion of U.S. companies believe that establishing new domestic supply chains would significantly increase their costs, leading many to consider relocating to countries with lower tariffs [9]