寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/16 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 玻 | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心玻璃 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 1100 | | 璃 | 理 | ...

Core Insights - Murex successfully hosted three client events in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on local market needs and the application of the MX.3 platform in risk management, system integration, and digital transformation [1] Group 1: Seoul Event - The event in Seoul highlighted the latest product developments, particularly how UaaS optimizes operational processes and enhances system efficiency [2] - Murex emphasized the critical role of innovative P&L control features in alleviating operational challenges and the practical application of APIs in clients' digital transformation [2] - The event fostered deeper discussions on collaboration and showcased Murex's commitment to understanding the local market [2] Group 2: Tokyo Event - The Tokyo event celebrated Murex's 30-year journey in the Japanese market, marking a significant milestone as the first office established in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - Murex's CEO highlighted Tokyo's strategic importance in the company's regional deployment and global strategy [4] - The event included interactive sessions and a closing speech expressing gratitude to Japanese clients for their long-term trust and support [4] Group 3: Mumbai Event - The Mumbai event attracted over 240 representatives from Indian financial institutions, emphasizing Murex's commitment to product, service, and talent investment [6] - Murex's focus on addressing evolving market demands was reiterated, showcasing the company's dedication to the Indian market [6] - The event aimed to strengthen local partnerships and explore new paths for digital transformation [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Murex plans to continue deepening its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, providing resilient, scalable, and forward-looking capital market solutions [8] - The company aims to collaborate with clients to build a more resilient future financial system [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the utilization of THPX signal sources to enhance the efficiency of XAUBTC gold investments through quantitative signals, enabling more informed investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: THPX Signal Source Mechanism - The THPX signal source operates by generating quantitative signals to improve XAUBTC gold investment efficiency, focusing on signal generation, data processing, and algorithm optimization [2]. - The signal generation process considers various market factors to ensure accuracy and timeliness, employing advanced algorithms for real-time market data analysis [3]. - Data processing is crucial for the accuracy and timeliness of the signal source, involving real-time monitoring, data cleaning, and deep analysis using advanced tools [4]. - Algorithm optimization focuses on enhancing signal processing speed and accuracy, utilizing machine learning and deep learning to predict market trends effectively [5]. Group 2: Advantages of Quantitative Signals in Gold Investment - Quantitative signals significantly improve investment decision efficiency, allowing for rapid analysis of large market data sets and freeing up time for strategic decision-making [9][10]. - These signals help identify potential market risks, enabling more robust investment strategies and better preparation for uncertainties [11]. Group 3: XAUBTC Market Trend Analysis - Analyzing XAUBTC's historical price trends is essential for understanding long-term trends and potential market opportunities, revealing patterns of interaction between gold and Bitcoin [12][13]. - Market volatility factors include economic policy changes, market sentiment, and global events, which can trigger significant price fluctuations [14]. - Technical indicators such as moving averages and relative strength index are effective tools for analyzing market trends and identifying potential turning points [15]. Group 4: Optimizing Investment Decisions with THPX Signals - The application of THPX signals can optimize investment decisions by identifying market opportunities through real-time data analysis and advanced algorithms [17][18]. - Adjusting quantitative signal parameters based on market volatility is crucial for maintaining the effectiveness of THPX signals [19]. - Continuous monitoring and adjustment of decision-making strategies are necessary to respond to market changes effectively [20]. Group 5: Risk Management and Profit Maximization Strategies - Risk assessment methods prioritize historical data models to predict potential risks, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation of market dynamics [28]. - Portfolio optimization involves diversifying asset allocation to enhance stability and growth potential while applying quantitative signals to identify optimal investment timing [29]. - Stop-loss strategy design must consider market volatility and investment goals to minimize losses while maximizing returns [30]. - Techniques for maximizing returns focus on market trend analysis and the integration of intelligent algorithms to improve investment yield [31]. Group 6: Future Development and Potential of THPX Signal Source - The future development of THPX signal sources shows significant potential for expanding market applications, particularly in enhancing portfolio efficiency [32][33]. - Technological innovation trends are crucial for maintaining competitiveness, with ongoing exploration of machine learning and AI applications to improve signal accuracy [34]. - Increased investor confidence is observed as THPX signal sources demonstrate reliability in dynamic market conditions, leading to a growing willingness to adopt this technology [35].

2025年5月7日，央行宣布全面降准0.5个百分点并同步下调政策利率，释放长期流动性约1万亿元（币种 为人民币，如无特别说明以下同），标志着货币政策进一步向"适度宽松"倾斜。 这一政策组合拳不仅为实体经济注入动能，更通过利率传导机制重塑金融市场格局。对再保险行业而 言，低利率环境加速了风险定价体系的重构，倒逼行业深化风险管理能力与产品创新效率，具备全周期 风险分散能力和资产负债管理优势的头部企业将迎来结构性机遇。 聚焦到公司层面，作为国内再保险行业的领军企业，中国再保险（简称"中国再保"）在此轮政策周期中 展现出显著的领跑态势。其亚洲第一、全球第八的业务规模优势，叠加在上海国际再保险中心建设中的 核心参与地位，使其能够充分承接政策释放的增量需求。当市场加速重构风险分散机制，这种集规模效 应、技术壁垒与政策先发优势于一体的行业地位，正成为中国再保把握政策红利的核心动能。 恰逢近期其发布了2025年第一季度财报，接下来不妨结合这份成绩单，来看看中国再保在政策红利推动 下的成长逻辑和投资亮点。 一、政策红利助力险企资产负债两端修复 从流动性释放、经济复苏传导至资本市场联动，政策红利的持续释放正在重塑再保险行业的价值 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted profit before tax for Q1 2025 was $96 million, up 42% year-over-year, with revenues growing 28% to $467 million [6][10][18] - Reported return on equity increased to 29%, up six percentage points year-over-year [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS rose to 91¢ per share, reflecting a 32% increase year-over-year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clearing revenue grew 18% to $119 million, driven by higher net interest income despite lower average Fed fund rates [20] - Agency and execution revenue surged 42% to $240 million, with securities revenue increasing 59% to $151 million [20][21] - Energy revenue rose 20% to $88 million, benefiting from record volumes and strong demand [21] - Market making revenue grew 27% to $53 million, with security revenues doubling [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exchange volumes in Q1 were up 15% year-over-year and 12% compared to Q4 [7] - Average daily value at risk remained low at $3.4 million, indicating effective market risk management [22] - Average balances increased to $17.1 billion, up from $11.3 billion a year ago, reflecting growth in client balances [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to generate reliable earnings growth across cycles by servicing client flow and gaining market share [14] - There is a focus on expanding the prime services offering and enhancing margins in the agency and execution segment [36][41] - The company is actively evaluating M&A opportunities while maintaining strict discipline to meet return targets [32][68] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the firm's operational resilience and ability to convert higher volumes into revenue and profit growth [30] - The company anticipates continued momentum for the rest of the year, despite potential risks from falling interest rates [31] - Management noted that client health remains strong, with minimal liquidity pressure observed during recent volatility [74][78] Other Important Information - The company successfully executed a $500 million senior notes issuance to enhance liquidity [9][17] - A dividend increase to 15¢ per share was announced for Q1 2025, up from 14¢ in 2024 [10][29] - The firm maintains a strong capital and liquidity position, with total funding increasing to $4.3 billion [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the Prime business and its recent performance - Management noted a significant pickup in prime services, indicating unmet demand has been captured, but growth rates may slow [36][37] Question: Contribution from the Arna acquisition - The Arna acquisition closed at the end of Q1, with minimal contribution in the quarter, but early performance in April met expectations [42][43] Question: Divergence between cleared volume growth and commission revenue growth - Management explained that the previous year's unusually positive environment in agriculture affected year-over-year comparisons, but no pricing pressure was noted [48][51] Question: Client clearing balances growth - Average balances grew significantly, driven by increased house liquidity and client onboarding, with expectations for continued growth [59][62] Question: M&A appetite and activity - The company remains active in pursuing acquisitions, with a disciplined approach to ensure target returns are met [66][68] Question: Client health and potential risks - Management reported strong client performance with minimal stress observed, despite recent volatility [74][78] Question: Front office headcount changes - Some remapping of headcount occurred, particularly in the agriculture business, but overall growth and investment in clearing remain strong [80][82]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/15 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金 ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报 2025/05/15 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4250-4750 | 30.73% | 91.3% | | PX | 6400-7000 | 44.15% | 99.4% | | PTA | 4500-5000 | 39.28% | 93.6% | | 瓶片 | 5750-6350 | 31.25% | 98.6% | source： 南华研究 聚酯价格区间预测 【利空解读】 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心乙二醇价格 | 多 | 为了 ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7400 | 19.44% | 90.6% | source： 南华研究 聚乙烯套保策略表 1. 内需情况持续偏弱，农膜仍处于产销淡季。 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300- 7400 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) announced a joint statement from the People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority regarding the deepening of "Swap Connect" cooperation, aimed at enhancing the management of RMB interest rate risks for overseas investors [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong OTC Clearing Limited, a subsidiary of HKEX, will collaborate with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and the National Interbank Funding Center to enrich the product tenors and types under the "Swap Connect" framework [1] - The optimization measures include extending the interest rate swap contract tenors to 30 years, catering to the diverse risk management needs of market institutions [1] - The product spectrum will be expanded to include interest rate swap contracts referencing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1]

| 对稳定。感谢您的关注！ | | --- | | 目前已上线的小游戏表现如何？未来在小游戏研发和推 3. | | 广方面的资源投入计划是怎样的？ | | 答:公司已上线的小程序游戏包括《大圣顶住》、《塔防三国 | | 志II》等，由于产品生命周期等原因，其流水表现与刚上线时相 | | 比有一定程度的下滑。未来，公司会根据游戏测试数据表现及市 | | 场环境情况动态调节小游戏的研发和推广节奏。 | | 4. 境外市场方面，《代号 S》和《代号 H》的研发进度分 | | 别处于什么阶段？预计在哪些海外市场重点推广？ | | 答:《代号 S》和《代号 H》尚在测试和调优阶段，预计主要 | | 面向欧美游戏市场。谢谢！ | | 5. 2025 年的销售策略和费用投入计划是怎样的，以保障公 | | 司产品的市场份额和知名度？ | | 答:公司会根据在研产品的研发和调优进度，积极推进新游戏 | | 的上线和推广。同时，公司也会适当关注新品研发，结合市场情 | | 况，对新产品、新方向进行试验和研发。 | | 6. 在游戏行业人才竞争激烈的环境下，公司如何吸引和留 | | 住高端人才？ | | 答:通过合理的激励、授权和 ...