来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：财通证券研究） 报告正文 如期降息25bp。本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率下调25bp至在4%-4.25%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次会议中，特朗普新 任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）是唯一反对者，认为应降息50bp。9月FOMC点阵图显示，略微过半的官员认为今年年内仍有至少两次 降息，但明年降息或仅一次。声明还指出，本次降息是鉴于"风险平衡转变"（the shift in the balance of risks），劳动力市场不再稳固，而是"就业增长放 缓，失业率略有上升"（Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up）。 美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，今天的降息是"向更中立的政策立场"的转变，或可视为"风险管理"（risk management）削减。降息50bp的观点"没有 得到广泛支持"（wasn't widespread support at all）。关于QT，鲍威尔表示，目前仍是"储备充裕"（abundant reserves）的状态 ...

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%[4] - Slightly over half of the FOMC officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts this year, while only one cut is expected next year[4] - The decision to cut rates was based on a "shift in the balance of risks," with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate edging up[4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021, indicating a shift towards a surplus in the labor market[7] - The Fed maintained its 2025 unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% and PCE inflation at 3%[10] - Inflation has increased, with commodity prices contributing significantly to this rise, although the increases are expected to be moderate and possibly one-time shocks[4][10] Economic Growth Projections - The Fed revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.6% and 2026 to 1.8%[11] - Economic activity is described as slowing, with consumer spending declining in most regions due to economic uncertainty and tariffs[11] - Rate cuts may lower credit costs, potentially boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing the economy next year[11] Market Reactions and Risks - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then fell, with bond yields increasing and the dollar index fluctuating[13] - Risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a sharper-than-anticipated economic downturn[16]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to $3727.3 per ounce during Asian trading on September 17, but later fell due to hawkish comments from Powell despite the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year after a nine-month hiatus [1] - The Fed also lowered the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points to 4.15% and 4.00%, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, leading to profit-taking and a technical pullback in gold and silver prices [2] - The short-term technical pullback is viewed as a healthy adjustment that does not alter the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Price Support Levels - Key support levels to watch are $3550 for gold and $40 for silver; if these levels hold, there is potential for a rebound in prices [2] - The continuation of the Fed's easing cycle, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings could support a recovery in gold and silver prices [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is suggested to take advantage of the pullback for gradual positioning, maintaining a long-term bullish perspective on precious metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, primarily due to slower job growth and economic uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Indicators - The decision to cut rates comes amid rising inflation and disappointing job growth, with recent indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity and increased risks in the labor market [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1]. - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with further cuts of 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Milan is the only dissenting voice, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points implemented [1][4]. - Among the 19 officials, 7 predict no further cuts this year, while 9 believe there will be two more 25 basis point cuts, indicating a divided outlook on future rate adjustments [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Implications - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) while the Nasdaq fell by 72.63 points (0.33%) [7]. - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a 100% rise over the past two years and a 45% increase this year, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's dovish stance may benefit risk assets, but caution that political pressures and economic data could influence future rate decisions [10][11].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January 2025 [1] - The decision was influenced by signs of slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut is a "risk management" measure and not a response to political pressure [1] Economic Indicators - The Fed noted an increase in downside risks to employment, with job growth slowing and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [2] - Recent data indicates signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, which contributed to the decision to restart rate cuts [2] - Powell highlighted that the changes in the labor market are not solely due to immigration factors but are also linked to a noticeable slowdown in demand [2] Rate Cut Context - The Fed had previously cut rates three times last year, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, but maintained a steady stance this year until now [3] - Powell acknowledged that new tariff policies have raised some prices, contributing to a projected rise in inflation, but this effect is expected to be temporary [3] Future Rate Expectations - The rate decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, with one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - The Fed anticipates two more 25 basis point cuts within the year, with projections for additional cuts in the following years [4] - The Fed has revised its GDP growth expectations upward and adjusted unemployment and inflation forecasts, expecting inflation to return to the long-term target of 2% by 2028 [4]

CONCLUDED Fed Cuts Rates by a Quarter Point, as Expected, and Sees 2 More Cuts This Year Last Updated: 4 hours ago Customer Service Fed Cuts Interest Rates by a Quarter Point, as Expected By Megan Leonhardt The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in nine months on Wednesday, but the central bank struck a cautious approach by cutting by a quarter of a percentage point. At the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower its target for the fede ...

鲍威尔在今年杰克逊霍尔会议上的严谨表现是一种非凡的、沃尔克式的政治勇气。 鲍威尔似乎从沃尔克和格林斯潘两人钢铁般的胆气和不涉政治的高度聚焦上得到了启发。沃尔克遭遇了 公众对高利率的广泛批评：农民围堵美联储总部（我当时就在那里工作），参议员和众议员们也被激怒 了。格林斯潘对非理性繁荣的担忧引发了华尔街的强烈抵制。同样，当内心坚定的鲍威尔在8月22日踏 上杰克逊霍尔的讲台时，他所承受的政治压力也绝对不小。 与传统认知相反，中央银行并不制定自身任务。这直接来自国会的授权——最初是1946年颁布的《就业 法案》，随后1978年出台的所谓《汉弗莱-霍金斯法案》又增加了控制通胀的内容。虽然美联储有权去 对最大就业和物价稳定的目标进行解读，但它在制定框架以实现法定任务目标方面享有最大的自由。 鲍威尔花了相当大的力气解释美联储对各项框架考虑因素的最新看法。在这方面没什么大的惊喜。在美 联储早前于2020年进行的框架审查中实际利率或排除通胀因素后的利率是相对于两个阈值进行评估的： 下端的有效下限和上端的"中性"——后者是指既不限制也不刺激经济增长或通胀的利率。 鲍威尔表示，风险平衡的变化"可能需要我们调整政策立场"，而各大金融 ...

Core Insights - The summer of 2025 has been largely beneficial for bitcoin investors, with the price remaining predominantly above the $100k threshold throughout the season [1] Summary by Category - **Market Performance** - Bitcoin's price has mostly stayed above $100k during the summer of 2025, indicating a strong market performance for the cryptocurrency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Hundred Schools and Ten Thousand Talents" project at Zhejiang University aims to enhance the integration of industry, academia, and research in the futures and derivatives field, providing systematic education for students and nurturing new talent to serve the real economy [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project is supported by the Dalian Commodity Exchange and co-hosted by Zheshang Futures and Wuzhou Zhongda Futures, focusing on risk management and practical applications in the futures market [1][4]. - The curriculum is designed collaboratively by Zheshang Futures and Wuzhou Zhongda Futures, covering essential topics such as futures fundamentals, options trading strategies, risk management, and enterprise applications [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Industry leaders emphasize the growing demand for high-quality talent in the AI era, indicating that the project aims to attract more students to research and apply their knowledge in the futures industry [2]. - The futures industry is seen as having significant opportunities, with a focus on risk management as its primary function, which is closer to the real economy compared to securities [2][3]. Group 3: Educational Activities - The first lecture, led by Dalian Commodity Exchange's assistant director, provided an overview of the current state and functions of the futures market, emphasizing the importance of understanding the entire industry chain [3]. - The project includes plans for industry research, insurance activities, and student exchanges to strengthen the connection between academia and industry [4].