Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams highlights the market's concern regarding the downside risks to U.S. economic growth [1] Group 1 - The focus on downside risks indicates potential challenges for the U.S. economy, which may affect investment strategies and market sentiment [1]

市场关注美国经济增长的下行风险。 公众必须要对通胀回归2%有信心。 贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 实际中性利率在0.75%至1%左右。 美联储威廉姆斯：没有价格稳定，就没有经济稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, with a split among policymakers regarding the decision [1][2] - Five members supported a 25 basis point cut, while two favored a 50 basis point cut and two preferred to keep rates unchanged [1][2] - The decision comes amid concerns over global trade changes and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the UK economy, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy [2][3] Group 2 - The Bank of England indicated that economic growth faces downside risks, with the potential for reduced inflation due to increased trade tariffs [2][3] - The central bank's forecast includes a CPI rate of 1.9% for both Q2 2027 and Q2 2028, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - GDP growth is projected at 1% in 2025, 1.25% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Group 3 - Following the announcement, traders adjusted their expectations for further rate cuts, now anticipating only two more cuts this year [5] - The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reaching a high of 1.3314, while UK government bond futures fell by approximately 50 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) anticipates downward risks for oil prices due to various market factors [1] Industry Summary - ANZ highlights that oil prices are likely to face downward pressure, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [1] - The bank's analysis suggests that recent price fluctuations may not sustain, indicating potential volatility in the oil market [1] Company Summary - ANZ's forecast reflects its broader economic outlook, which may impact investment strategies and market positioning for stakeholders in the oil sector [1] - The bank's insights could guide investors in assessing the timing and scale of their investments in oil-related assets [1]

日本央行会议纪要：一名委员表示，日本央行在考虑下一次加息时机时需要特别谨慎，因美国政策引发 的下行风险已迅速加剧。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我的直觉告诉我，不确定性非常高。（经济）下行风险已经增加。 ...

菲律宾央行：更可控的通胀前景和增长的下行风险使得货币政策转向更宽松的立场成为可能。 ...

上周，沙特牵头了旨在重塑全球石油市场的大胆举措——让欧佩克+激进增产，这正迫使华尔街观察人士下调价格预测，加剧对供应过剩的担忧，并准备迎 接更多变化。 周一原油开盘跳水，盘中一度大跌3%，现有所回升，此前欧佩克+宣布6月额外供应41.1万桶/日。批准此次增产的会议提前两天至上周六举行，沙特紧随其 后发出警告，称未来可能进一步增产。 高盛将今明两年布伦特原油预测下调了2至3美元/桶，而摩根士丹利下调幅度更大，将今年季度预估削减了5美元，荷兰国际集团（ING）也下调了其展望。 高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在一份报告中表示："我们的核心观点依然是，高闲置产能和高衰退风险使得油价面临下行风险，尽管现货基本面相对紧 张。"他们表示，除了针对自身成员外，欧佩克+的行动可能旨在"战略性地规范美国页岩油供应"。 高盛在今年早些时候一周内进行了两次油价预测的调整，该投行还表示，将在未来几天重新计算全球市场供需平衡，反映出对供应将超过需求的担忧。 摩根士丹利修正后的价格预测（目前预计布伦特原油第三和第四季度为62.50美元/桶）取决于其对更大幅度供应过剩的预期。在欧佩克+最新的行动之后， 该行预计过剩量将增加40万桶 ...

日本央行：经济前景面临的下行风险偏大。 ...