Core Viewpoint - Despite a decrease in the overall population of Chongqing in recent years, the population in the main urban area continues to grow, indicating the city's strong attraction and population aggregation ability [2][4][7]. Population Trends - The total population of Chongqing was 31.90 million at the end of 2024, with the main urban area housing 21.83 million residents, accounting for 68.43% of the total population, an increase of 0.48 percentage points since 2020 [2]. - The overall population of Chongqing has shown a declining trend, with a decrease of 219,100 people by the end of 2023 and an additional decrease of 9,600 people projected for the end of 2024 [4][5]. Demographic Challenges - Population aging is a significant factor contributing to the decline, with 8.01 million individuals aged 60 and above, resulting in an aging rate of 25.11%, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. - The birth rate in Chongqing has been declining, with 191,000 births in 2024, leading to a natural population growth rate of -2.88‰ [4]. Urban Area Dynamics - The main urban area of Chongqing is characterized by a multi-center, multi-level, and multi-node urban spatial structure, comprising 21 districts and counties [2]. - The population in the main urban area has been steadily increasing, with a reported 21.12 million residents in 2020, rising to 21.83 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 43,600 people [6][7]. Economic and Employment Factors - The main urban area of Chongqing has become a major destination for population inflow due to its economic development, job opportunities, and abundant public resources, similar to the trend observed in other provinces where urban centers attract population while surrounding areas decline [7].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is currently facing five major structural risks: declining institutional trust, aging population, social inflation, mortality risk, and digital transformation [3][5]. Group 1: Structural Risks - Structural risks arise from fundamental changes in economic, social, and environmental trends, such as demographic shifts and climate change [5]. - Managing these risks is crucial for insurance companies to protect policyholder interests, ensure operational stability, and maintain macroeconomic stability [5]. Group 2: Declining Consumer Trust - Consumer trust in institutions, including insurance companies, is declining, impacting sales and company reputation. In 2025, 61% of respondents expressed moderate to severe dissatisfaction with enterprises and governments [9]. - Trust is a key factor in purchasing decisions, with over 80% of corporate clients indicating it influences their choice of insurance providers. A lack of trust can lead to policyholders switching providers or opting out of coverage [9]. - Recent surveys show that less than two-thirds of consumers trust insurance companies, with only 50% believing that insurers will compensate for losses from natural disasters [9]. Group 3: Social Inflation Risk - Social inflation, defined as factors leading to increased severity of insurance claims beyond economic explanations, accounted for 57% of the growth in U.S. liability claims over the past decade [13]. - Since 2020, the number of "nuclear verdicts" (awards exceeding $10 million) has more than tripled, with median award amounts rising from $21.5 million to $51 million [13]. - The profitability of personal injury liability insurance has been declining, with cumulative underwriting losses reaching $43 billion from 2020 to 2024, partly due to rising litigation costs [13]. Group 4: Excess Mortality Rate Fluctuations - Excess mortality rates, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to remain positive in the U.S. and the UK until at least 2027, potentially impacting life insurance claims and reserves [19]. - In 2023, the U.S. life expectancy increased by 0.9 years to 78.4 years, but remains below pre-pandemic levels [19]. - The ongoing rise in excess mortality may challenge the life insurance industry, affecting long-term performance and pricing of new life insurance policies [19][20]. Group 5: Aging Population - Global population aging, driven by increased life expectancy and declining birth rates, is expected to pressure death benefit and savings products. By 2050, the population aged 65 and older in high-income countries is projected to rise significantly [28]. - The growing longevity risk pool presents a substantial premium opportunity for the life insurance industry, as the retirement period for those aged 65 has increased by 16% compared to 2000 [28][29]. Group 6: Digital Technology - The development of digital technology is reshaping the risk landscape and may drive demand for first-party and third-party liability insurance. Reports of AI-related incidents have surged, with a 60% increase from 2023 to 2024 [31]. - The rise in litigation related to AI, particularly concerning intellectual property and defamation, could become a significant driver of social inflation [31]. - The insurance industry is still in the early stages of product development related to digital risks, with unclear definitions regarding coverage, exclusions, and standardized terms [31].

Core Insights - The overall population growth trend in Chongqing has turned negative in recent years, contrasting with the previous growth observed until 2022 [2] - Despite the decline in total population, the main urban area of Chongqing continues to attract residents, indicating strong urban agglomeration effects [1][4] Population Trends - As of the end of 2024, Chongqing's total population is projected to be 31.90 million, with the main urban area housing 21.83 million, accounting for 68.43% of the total population [1] - The total population of Chongqing decreased by 219,100 in 2023 and is expected to decrease by another 9,600 in 2024 [2] - The aging population is a significant factor in the decline, with 8.01 million people aged 60 and above, representing an aging rate of 25.11% [2] Birth and Death Rates - In 2024, the birth rate in Chongqing is projected to be 5.99‰, with a total of 191,000 births, while the death rate is expected to be 8.87‰, with 283,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population growth rate of -2.88‰ [3] Urban Area Dynamics - The main urban area of Chongqing has shown consistent population growth, with a recorded population of 21.12 million in 2020, increasing to 21.83 million in 2024 [4] - The center city area has experienced a population increase of 0.7%, while other regions within the urban area have seen slight declines [4] Economic and Resource Factors - The main urban area of Chongqing has become a focal point for population inflow due to its economic development, job opportunities, and abundant public resources, mirroring the trend of "province reduction and capital city increase" seen in other regions [5]

责任编辑：尉旖涵 会议上国家发展改革委社会发展司原副司长、一级巡视员郝福庆称，人口老龄化是大趋势、大趋势就会 带来大需求、孕育着大市场、大市场需要大服务、依靠大科技，这5个认知构成了银发经济划分的底层 逻辑。在人口老龄化的大背景下，可以预见，银发经济一定会成来未来我国经济社会发展的新经济增长 期。 郝福庆称，人口老龄化是大趋势，不可逆转。当前世界出现了百年未有之大变局，在这其中有两个确定 性我觉得是不容置疑的：一个是中华民族的伟大复兴，再一个大家看得见、摸得着的人口老龄化。对于 后者而言，生活水平的提高、医疗条件的改善、社会保障的建立、包括生育观念的转变、人类寿命的延 长等等，很多因素共同的作用导致人口老龄化。 去年我们国家出生人口是954万，生育率只有百分之一点零几，我们的老年人口是负增长，去年是减少 了139万，老年人口达到是3.1亿，占比达到22%。我们中国人口从22年开始进入拐点，也就是22年达到 峰值，开始进入下行的通道。去年一年人口减少了139万，老年人口净增了1334万。那么前一年我们出 生人口是902百，死亡是1110万，人口减小208万。这是全球的一个趋势。 专题：银发浪潮中的新机遇：共建包 ...

我国的养老金融包括基本养老金、企业年金、职业年金、个人养老金以及各种商业性的寿险产品和其他 养老服务的融资，这是一个持续壮大的金融板块。 "养老金融发展存在结构性失衡问题。"郑功成表示，2035年左右中国60岁以上的老年人口将超过4亿， 进入重度老龄化阶段。2050年前后我国老年人口的比重、老年抚养比和社会抚养比将达到峰值。 "养老金融规模仍然偏小。"郑功成认为，我国需要进一步改善发展养老金融的政策环境，提高政策的精 准度，增强养老金融理性的识别性。 文/付乐 11月28日，全国人大常委会委员、全国人大社会建设委员会委员郑功成在第10届新金融论坛上表示，养 老金融是金融建设、金融强国的重要方向，更是面对人口老龄化的重要方向。发展养老金融既是促进金 融业大力发展的增长点，也是十分重要的民生工程。 他指出，我们国家的人口老龄化具有超常规性：一个是规模超大，现在60岁以上的人口已经达到3.1亿 多人；第二，速度超快，从轻度老龄化到中度老龄化到重度老龄化，我们已经进入中度老龄化，在全世 界人口老龄化进程中是速度最快的国家之一。 此外，还有断崖式少子化，近几年时间新生儿从1800万到现在900万左右。再加上家庭保障功能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reform of Germany's pension system is currently stalled, facing significant debate and opposition due to its implications for fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity [1][4]. Group 1: Pension Reform Details - The new pension proposal includes measures for "welfare protection" and "labor incentives," with the core provision extending the "pension level floor" until 2031, ensuring that the replacement rate does not fall below 48% [2][3]. - The government estimates that maintaining this minimum replacement rate will cost federal finances significantly, starting at €3.6 billion in 2029 and escalating to €11 billion by 2031 [3]. - The "mother's pension III" provision extends childcare credits for parents of children born before 1992, resulting in an additional annual expenditure of approximately €5 billion, fully funded by the state [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The proposal's reliance on tax subsidies to maintain a fixed replacement rate is criticized for shifting the financial burden onto younger contributors and potentially creating long-term fiscal risks [4][5]. - The "active pension" policy allows retirees to work while receiving full pensions, with a tax exemption on earnings up to €2,000 per month, expected to reduce tax revenue by about €890 million annually [2][5]. - Critics argue that this policy may not effectively increase labor participation, as it primarily benefits those already inclined to work, rather than attracting new labor [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Context and Comparisons - Germany's demographic challenges are not unique, as the EU faces similar issues, with the old-age dependency ratio projected to exceed 50% by 2050 [7]. - Other European countries are implementing various strategies to address aging populations, such as raising retirement ages and linking pensions to life expectancy, with examples from Spain and France [8].

Core Insights - The long-term care insurance (LTCI) system is being rapidly implemented across various provinces in China, with a unified system set to be established in Hainan by January 1, 2026 [1][2] - LTCI is a crucial social insurance initiative aimed at addressing the needs of elderly individuals who are unable to care for themselves due to aging, illness, or disability, marking it as the "sixth insurance" in China's social security system [2][3] - The program has seen significant growth since its pilot launch in 2016, with over 180 million participants expected by the end of 2024, and cumulative expenditures exceeding 80 billion yuan [2][3] Implementation and Variability - There is notable variability in the implementation of LTCI across pilot regions, with differences in operational models, funding sources, and service delivery methods [3][4] - Various service delivery options have emerged, including home care, institutional care, and cash benefits, reflecting a diverse approach to meeting the needs of the elderly [3][4] Policy Development and Recommendations - The establishment of a unified LTCI system is essential to fill the gaps in elderly care and ensure comprehensive social security coverage [3][5] - Experts suggest that the LTCI system should focus on in-person services primarily, with cash benefits as a supplementary option, and clarify the boundaries between LTCI and basic medical insurance [5][6] - Recommendations for enhancing the LTCI system include expanding coverage, improving community and home care services, training more caregivers, and promoting awareness of the importance of insurance participation [6]

Core Perspective - The phenomenon of "old drifters" (老漂) is crucial for family support and urbanization in China, as they alleviate childcare burdens and contribute to family development [1][4][7] Group 1: Role of Old Drifters - Old drifters serve as family "ferries," supporting the development of families and addressing childcare challenges, which is essential for urban living [1][4] - The scale of elderly mobile population, approximately 18 million aged 60 and above, significantly contributes to urbanization, with over 8 million migrating to care for grandchildren [3][4] - Many families rely on old drifters for childcare, making them a common solution to parenting difficulties in urban settings [3][4] Group 2: Challenges Faced by Old Drifters - Old drifters often experience psychological stress due to their roles, feeling like they are "always at work" in crowded living conditions [3][4] - The need for independent living spaces can alleviate some psychological pressure, but not all families can afford this [3][4] - Old drifters face not only economic challenges but also issues related to personal networks and their sense of existence [4][8] Group 3: Changing Family Dynamics - The responsibilities of old drifters are increasing as urban families face greater childcare pressures, while the ability of younger generations to reciprocate support is diminishing [6][7] - There is a shift in family roles, with younger generations beginning to take on more responsibilities during holidays, allowing old drifters some rest [6][7] - Old drifters often find themselves in a subordinate role within the family, executing tasks without much authority [8][10] Group 4: Intergenerational Relationships - Conflicts can arise between old drifters and their children due to differing childcare philosophies, with younger parents often adopting more scientific approaches compared to traditional methods of older generations [12][13] - The competition for old drifters among multiple grandchildren can lead to resource allocation issues, affecting family dynamics [12][13] - The emotional and psychological well-being of old drifters is closely tied to their relationships with their children and grandchildren, impacting their overall happiness [19][20] Group 5: Value and Recognition of Old Drifters - Despite the challenges, many old drifters find value in their roles, feeling needed and appreciated within the family structure [23][25] - The sense of being needed can outweigh feelings of fatigue and frustration, contributing to their overall life satisfaction [25][26] - The cultural expectation of intergenerational support remains strong, with older generations often feeling a sense of duty to assist their children [28]

Core Viewpoint - The development of high-quality elderly education is essential for enhancing the quality of life for the elderly population in China, which is projected to exceed 310 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Elderly Education - Elderly education is a crucial component of lifelong education and reflects the level of a learning society [2]. - It is vital for improving the quality of life for the elderly, fostering family harmony, and promoting social stability [2][3]. - The emphasis on elderly education aligns with the broader goal of transforming the challenges of an aging population into a demographic dividend [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Support - The government is urged to enhance the institutional framework for elderly education, ensuring it is recognized in national education and aging development strategies [4]. - There is a need for specific regulations and responsibilities for various levels of government regarding planning, resource allocation, and evaluation of elderly education [4][5]. - A comprehensive service system for elderly education should be established, covering urban and rural areas [4]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Resource Allocation - The government should mobilize social forces, including universities and community organizations, to participate in elderly education [5]. - Initiatives such as establishing local branches of elderly universities and providing tax incentives for educational investments are recommended [5][6]. - Optimizing resource distribution is crucial to ensure that quality educational services reach elderly individuals in remote and underserved areas [6]. Group 4: Educational Content and Methodology - Elderly education should focus on both knowledge and personal development, incorporating various subjects such as arts, health, and civic education [6][7]. - Innovative teaching methods that cater to the learning preferences of the elderly, such as experiential and discussion-based learning, should be explored [6]. - Establishing a certification system for elderly learners, like a "silver age diploma," can enhance their motivation and sense of achievement [6]. Group 5: Integration with Social and Economic Development - Elderly education should be integrated with the silver economy, promoting synergies with health management and elder care services [7]. - Programs that encourage elderly participation in community governance and volunteer activities can enhance their social value and sense of purpose [7].

·摩根士丹利：印度财政赤字目标面临严峻挑战，收支失衡加剧 ·澳洲联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年重启加息，潜在增长放缓推升通胀风险 ·澳新银行-罗伊摩根数据显示，新西兰11月下旬通胀预期升至5.4%，创2023年12月以来新高，较10月上 升0.4个百分点。过去六个月周度预期均值维持在5.0%高位，持续高企的通胀预期将显著制约新西兰联 储进一步降息的空间，加大货币政策决策难度。 ·穆迪分析指出，亚太地区GDP增速将从2025年的4.1%放缓至2026年的3.6%，2027年进一步降至3.5%。 报告指出，今年出口激增主要受美国关税上调前的抢运效应驱动，难以持续；叠加疲弱的亚太多国国内 需求，不仅削弱抵消外部冲击的能力，也加剧通缩压力，区域增长前景面临挑战。 ·AMP经济学家指出，澳大利亚住房短缺约20万至30万套，主因移民增长长期超出住房供应能力。建议 将年度净移民从当前31.6万人削减至约20万人，以重建供需平衡，缓解日益严峻的住房负担能力危机。 ·澳联邦银行经济学家指出，若澳大利亚通胀压力持续、劳动力市场趋紧，澳洲联储可能在2026年重启 加息。尽管当前概率不高，但受生产率疲软拖累，澳大利亚潜在经济增长放缓 ...