欧佩克月报：预计2025年下半年全球经济将表现良好，此前全球经济在表现优于预期。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the inflationary impact caused by rising oil prices [1] - The pulse-like increase in crude oil prices is likely to exceed expectations, and the surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [1][2] - Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver are performing strongly, and the escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - Global large institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A-share market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Israel launched a strike on Iran on the early morning of June 13th local time, and the military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities will continue for several days [1] - Iran is seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1] - In the worst-case scenario of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Iranian oil exports may decrease by 2.1 million barrels per day, and oil prices could soar to the range of $120 - $130 [1] - The US will not change the current level of tariffs on Chinese goods even if the trade agreement between the two countries is not finalized [1] - European pension funds have started to increase foreign exchange hedging, leading to a large amount of US dollar selling [1] - Trump's tariffs will cause the US inflation rate to rise by at least 3% year-on-year and cost ordinary households $1000 in income [1] - US President Trump must hand over the command of the California National Guard to Governor Newsom [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated, but the global economic outlook has been stabilized by the China-US phased framework agreement [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI final value was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion [1] - The spot price of 40 - foot containers on the Shanghai - US West Line has exceeded $5000 [1] - China is addressing cut - throat competition, and the European Central Bank's 8th interest rate cut and Germany's 30% expansion of military scale have promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Global Asset Allocation - The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel will likely cause a more intense and extensive pulse - like increase in crude oil prices [1] - Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, are performing strongly, and silver is expected to start a trending upward movement [2] - The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - The surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [2] - Global large institutional investors are shifting from US assets to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A - share market [2] - The global market has entered an inflation shock mode, and the A - share market has entered a defensive state [2]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the global economy, according to Tim Rocks, Chief Investment Officer at Evans and Partners [1] Oil Market Analysis - Although oil prices may experience a short-term spike, Iran accounts for only 3% of global oil production, which limits the potential impact on the market [1] - OPEC currently has sufficient spare capacity to mitigate risks associated with potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply [1] Investment Strategy - The company is looking for opportunities to increase positions amid market volatility [1] Risk Factors - A significant risk remains regarding the potential blockade or attack in the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran and is a critical transit route for approximately 20% of the world's crude oil [1] - Any disruption in this area could lead to major shocks in the energy market [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran may have a lasting impact on oil prices, potentially affecting inflation data if oil prices do not decline in the short term [1] - The current situation is highly tense, but the stock market is assessing whether this will have a lasting impact [1] - Geopolitical events often get absorbed within days or weeks if their impact on the global economy is not significant or enduring [1]

欧洲央行有能力应对未来的冲击。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：全球经济经历了巨大的冲击。 关税威胁为经济带来了极大的不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon discussed global economy and free trade in light of the high tariff policies of the US government, agreeing to deepen bilateral relations including in security [1] Group 1 - The conversation focused on the implications of US high tariff policies on global trade [1] - Both leaders emphasized the importance of a rules-based international order and identified New Zealand as a key partner in promoting a free and open system [1] - There was a consensus on further enhancing bilateral relations, particularly in the area of security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained below 50% for three consecutive months, indicating a low point in the global economy [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - In May, the global manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical threshold of 50% for three months in a row [1] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI stood at 48.4% in May, unchanged from the previous month, and has been below 49% for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing contraction in the region's manufacturing sector [1] Group 2: Country-Specific Data - The manufacturing PMI for the United States in May was 48.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a decline for four consecutive months [1] - The data suggests that the imposition of tariffs in the U.S. has contributed to the continued weakening of the manufacturing sector [1]

澳洲联储助理主席亨特：较高的美国关税将对全球经济产生拖累。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariff policies on the global economy and Japan's economy remains unclear according to the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies could lead to unpredictable economic outcomes for Japan [1] - Global economic conditions are influenced by various factors, including trade policies, which complicate the assessment of their effects [1] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring these developments to understand their implications for domestic economic stability [1]