关税上调

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世界贸易组织报告显示,第一季度商品贸易量增长超出预期,但由于关税上调对进口需求造成压力,预计今年晚些时候增长将放缓。
news flash· 2025-07-15 14:16
Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) report indicates that the volume of goods trade in the first quarter exceeded expectations [1] - However, due to increased tariffs putting pressure on import demand, growth is expected to slow later this year [1] Summary by Categories Trade Volume - The first quarter saw a growth in goods trade volume that surpassed initial forecasts [1] Tariff Impact - Increased tariffs are creating pressure on import demand, which is likely to lead to a slowdown in growth in the latter part of the year [1]
特朗普对欧关税“吓坏”华尔街!高盛、巴克莱齐声警告
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-14 08:57
然而,如果关税真的实施,潜在的经济损害是巨大的。这家华尔街银行估计,持续30%的关税将使欧元 区的国内生产总值(GDP)到2026年底累计下降1.2%。 巴克莱银行的经济学家也表达了同样的情绪,预测经济活动将出现"更深的近期收缩"。他们认为,一次 大规模的关税上调可能会使欧元区的实际GDP增长再削减0.7个百分点。 美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧盟商品征收30%的关税,一些投行警告称,此举可能引发欧盟"持久且更深 的经济放缓",并可能迫使欧洲央行降息。 上周末,特朗普以致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的信函形式,公布了新的税率。他补充说,如果欧盟以更 高的关税进行报复,"那么,无论你们选择提高多少,都将在我们收取的30%基础上再叠加。" 高盛表示,致欧盟的这封信出人意料,在各方原以为贸易谈判正"富有建设性"地进行之后,它"重新点 燃了对欧元区前景的担忧"。高盛的首席欧洲经济学家Sven Jari Stehn在7月13日给客户的一份报告中 说: "话虽如此,特朗普的威胁很可能是一种谈判策略,并且(目前)我们维持我们的基线情 景,即可以达成一项维持当前关税税率的'框架协议',其中包括对所有商品征收10%的关 税,以及对钢铁/铝 ...
白银td走高戴利称降息时机正在临近
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-11 02:52
Group 1 - Silver TD prices have shown a significant increase, currently reported at 9009 yuan/kg, with a rise of 1.77% from the opening price of 8890 yuan/kg [1][4] - The highest price reached today was 9039 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 8885 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend in the silver market [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver TD are identified between 9040-9050 yuan/kg, with support levels at 8770-8780 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, suggesting that two rate cuts this year are a possible outcome, although this prediction is subject to various uncertainties [3] - Daly emphasized the need for the Fed to balance the decision to cut rates to maintain economic stability, noting that inflation is gradually returning to the 2% target but has not fully achieved it [3] - There is a divergence within the Fed regarding the economic outlook, with some members, like Governor Waller, advocating for a more aggressive approach to rate cuts [3]
摩根士丹利:协议期限临近,贸易紧张局势加剧
摩根· 2025-07-11 01:14
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that trade tensions are escalating as deadlines for agreements approach, leading to increased uncertainty that may impact business confidence, capital expenditure, and trade cycles [1][7][32] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiation Updates - The report outlines the current status of trade negotiations across various economies in the region, highlighting that only Vietnam has reached an agreement so far, while others remain uncertain [7][9] - Key issues include tariff adjustments, market access for agricultural products, and the complexities surrounding the approval of exports, particularly for critical materials like rare earths [9][48] Tariff Implications - The report indicates that the U.S. may unilaterally set tariff rates, with potential increases in tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, reflecting ongoing trade uncertainties [7][12][21] - Current tariff rates on imports from Asia, excluding China and Vietnam, have seen a significant rise, with the weighted average tariff rate increasing [12][14] Economic Impact - High-frequency data suggests that the growth cycle may be adversely affected in the next 2-3 months due to the ongoing trade tensions, with indicators showing signs of a slowdown in economic activity [32][41] - The report notes that while some economic indicators have remained strong, there is a concern that this may be due to preemptive demand ahead of the July 9 deadline, with subsequent data expected to reflect a downturn [32][42] Regional Trade Dynamics - The report highlights that countries like India, Indonesia, and Thailand are facing significant tariff increases, which could further complicate trade relations with the U.S. [25][48] - The complexities of defining and measuring transshipment issues are also discussed, indicating that imports perceived as transshipped from China may face higher tariffs, complicating trade for other Asian economies [21][31] Future Outlook - The report concludes that trade uncertainties are likely to persist, affecting corporate confidence and capital spending, with potential tactical tariff increases expected if negotiations stall [7][22][32]
美联储会议纪要:多数与会者认为关税上调或政策不确定性加剧将打压劳动需求
news flash· 2025-07-09 18:51
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that most participants believe that increased tariffs or heightened policy uncertainty will suppress labor demand [1] Labor Market Conditions - Participants assess that the labor market remains solid, close to maximum employment levels [1] - A slowdown in hiring and layoffs has been noted, reflecting stability in the labor market [1] - Some participants reported that contacts and survey respondents indicated a pause in hiring decisions due to rising uncertainty [1] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration policies are contributing to a reduction in labor supply, as noted by several participants [1] Labor Demand Outlook - Most participants expect that increased tariffs or greater policy uncertainty will negatively impact labor demand, with many anticipating a gradual softening of conditions [1] - Some indicators have already shown signs of weakness, prompting close monitoring of further labor market deterioration [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth continues to slow, and participants do not expect it to create inflationary pressures [1]
美联储会议纪要:关税上调预计将推高今年的通胀
news flash· 2025-07-09 18:46
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that tariff increases are expected to raise inflation this year and provide a slight boost to inflation in 2026, with a projected inflation rate of 2% by 2027 [1] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The Federal Reserve staff noted that the upward adjustment of tariffs is anticipated to elevate inflation levels for the current year [1] - There is an expectation that inflation may rise more persistently than previously assumed in baseline forecasts [1] - The inflation rate is projected to decrease to 2% by 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Uncertainty - There is an increasing uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, primarily due to changes in trade, fiscal, immigration, and regulatory policies [1] - The risks surrounding inflation forecasts are skewed to the upside, reflecting concerns about the durability of inflation increases [1]
美联储内部分歧“摆上台面”,降息还在多远的未来?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-09 13:03
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to reveal internal divisions among officials regarding the impact of increased tariffs on the economy and inflation, which may affect their willingness to commit to interest rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's policy rate has been maintained at 4.25%-4.50% since December of the previous year, with the next potential rate cut being considered at the July 29-30 meeting [2]. - Officials are grappling with the implications of tariffs on prices and the labor market, with some expressing concerns about the strength of the job market [2][3]. - The minutes will clarify whether other policymakers agree that the impact of tariffs on prices may be short-term and the basis for those who believe no rate cuts should occur until 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Predictions - Analysts expect the upcoming core inflation data to be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, as it may indicate a shift from a low-tariff environment to a high-tariff one, potentially raising import tax rates significantly [4]. - The Fed is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, contingent on inflation performance and how businesses manage rising costs from imported goods [4][5]. - Economic forecasts suggest that inflation may rise above the Fed's 2% target, with estimates indicating the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index could reach 3.4% by year-end if higher tariffs are implemented [5].
瑞银:特朗普推迟关税上调料使消费压力延后至2026年
news flash· 2025-07-08 08:54
Core Viewpoint - UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan indicates that the postponement of tariff increases by Trump to August 1 may delay the impact of these new tariffs on prices until 2026, rather than being felt fully before Christmas [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - The delay in tariff implementation means that consumers may not experience price increases during the holiday shopping season, which could alleviate some pressure on American consumers in the second half of the year [1] - Retailers typically stock up in advance for Christmas, and the entire supply chain process means that even if tariffs are implemented now, the actual price increases may be felt later [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The postponement of tariffs could help the White House avoid negative news during the year-end shopping season, but it does not prevent the eventual transmission of these tariffs to American households [1] - Donovan warns that this delay represents a significant tax burden on American consumers, and by the end of the year, inflation-adjusted real wages are expected to decline rather than increase, which will reveal the true economic issues [1]
敏感时刻,美股二季报来了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-08 00:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial for the S&P 500 index, especially in light of recent tariff increases and their impact on corporate profitability [1][2] - Analysts expect a significant slowdown in year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, dropping from 12% in Q1 to 4% in Q2, primarily due to shrinking profit margins [2] - The earnings reports will provide insights into how companies are managing tariff costs, whether by absorbing them or passing them on to consumers, which will directly affect profit margins and stock performance [1][2] Group 2 - The concentrated earnings release period for Q2 will last from July 15 to August 1, with 73% of S&P 500 constituents expected to report [2] - Goldman Sachs trader John Flood indicates that despite a strong market performance, there are underlying vulnerabilities, including narrow market breadth and high valuation levels compared to historical averages [2] - Current effective tariff rates have increased by approximately 10% to 13%, with expectations of a further rise to 17% [2][3]
越南协议提振服装股 关税阴影仍难散?分析师警告利润或大幅下调
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-04 08:07
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, which includes increased tariffs on imports from Vietnam, has led to a rise in stock prices for companies like Nike and Lululemon, but analysts warn of potential downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to the new tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new agreement imposes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, compared to the previous 10% tariff [2]. - UBS analysts predict that earnings per share for covered apparel manufacturers and retailers will be adjusted downwards by an average of 3% to 5% for this year and next [3]. - Companies such as Victoria's Secret, Under Armour, and G-III Apparel Group are expected to be most affected, with potential earnings adjustments of 12% to 20% [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The difficulty of relocating manufacturing back to the U.S. is highlighted, as many companies are currently negotiating with suppliers to share the burden of the new tariffs [4]. - Analysts note that Vietnam is a crucial sourcing location for many apparel brands, with significant percentages of their products being manufactured there: On Holding (90%), Deckers Outdoor (75%), and Nike (42%) [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Despite the increase in tariffs, some analysts believe the market's initial concerns may have been overstated, as the new tariff rates are lower than previously feared [4]. - Possible reasons for the initial rise in apparel stocks include the market having already priced in higher tariffs, a belief that further tariff increases are unlikely, and the perception that the cost impact of tariffs can be managed [4].