高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会对 欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）构成约0.1%的拖累。 特朗普周六表示，将对声援格陵兰的欧洲国家征收关税。相关措施将适用于丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、 德国、芬兰、英国和荷兰。 高盛团队估计，10%的关税将通过贸易的减少使上述受影响国家的实际GDP下降0.1%至0.2%。他们表 示，德国面临的冲击将最大，如果是增量对等关税，料对其GDP构成约0.2%的冲击；如果是全面征 收，影响料为0.3%。 "如果信心受挫或金融市场出现不利影响，冲击可能更大，"包括Sven Jari Stehn在内的团队在报告中写 道。 高盛经济学家表示，关税是否会真正落地仍"高度不确定"，而欧盟可能的回应包括：拖延与美国的贸易 协议、征收反制性关税，或启动所谓的"反胁迫工具"。高盛预计，英国将把重点放在与特朗普进行外交 层面的接触上，与去年贸易谈判时的做法类似。 高盛经济学家还认为，对通胀的影响"非常小"，并预计各国央行会根据GDP前景下调利率。 责任编辑：何云 高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].

今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于92.97一线上方，今日开盘于91.01美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报93.06美元/盎司，上涨3.47%，最高触及94.07美元/盎司，最低下探90.98美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向 震荡走势。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 白银上周有一个关键点，86附近，在强势中，回落一直没有破位，所以目前在86形成了强势支撑带，目前白银再次走 高，并且刷新高点到94附近。周内的支撑在91，86附近，看是否能回落到这两个关键点交易。按照趋势来看，白银上涨 到100美金指日可待。今日白银下方关注92.45美元或90.20美元支撑，上方关注94.80美元或95.80美元阻力。 科斯塔表示，各成员国一致认为加征关税将破坏跨大西洋关系，并与欧美贸易协议不符。科斯塔还称，欧盟"随时准备 捍卫自身免受任何形式的胁迫"，并且随时准备继续与美国就所有共同关心的问题进行建设性接触。科斯塔说，欧盟将 在未来几天召开一次特别峰会。 有官员表示，欧盟考虑于1月22日召开此次峰会。 欧盟各成员国代表当地时间18日在比利时布鲁塞尔召开紧急会议，讨论如何应对美国总统特朗普 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 22837, opening at 22200 CNY/kg, and are reported at 23060 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.18% increase, with a high of 23577 CNY/kg and a low of 21447 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The support level for silver futures is predicted at 21000, with the lowest point observed around 21500, and the market is awaiting the end of adjustments, with a strong bullish sentiment remaining [3] - The main contract for silver is expected to operate within the range of 22200 to 23500 CNY/kg [3] Group 2 - European governments are concerned about the potential economic impact of Trump's tariff threats regarding Greenland, which could lead to a 930 billion euro increase in tariffs on goods exported to the US [2] - The geopolitical consequences of Trump's actions could severely damage transatlantic relations and NATO, with European leaders increasingly worried about the implications of Greenland's sovereignty [2] - Despite some compromises from Europe on trade and defense spending, the issue of Greenland's sovereignty is likely to remain a non-negotiable point [2]

特朗普表示，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的进口商品加征 10%的关税，并在6月1日起进一步提升至25%，直到各方就美国全面彻底购买格陵兰岛达成协议。 在特朗普关税威胁曝光后，丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森迅速与德国总理默茨、法国总统马克龙和英国首相斯 塔默等领导人进行了通话，并公开表态拒绝接受这种"勒索"。 据丹麦媒体报道，弗雷泽里克森在社交媒体上强调，丹麦已获得广泛国际支持，这一问题的影响已远远 超出本国边界。 她表示，希望通过合作而非冲突来解决问题，并对欧洲其他国家发出的统一信息感到欣慰，即欧洲不会 屈服于勒索。这一回应体现了丹麦在维护主权方面的决心，也为欧洲整体立场注入了凝聚力。 今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于91.96一线上方，今日开盘于91.01美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报92.80美元/盎司，上涨3.18%，最高触及94.07美元/盎司，最低下探90.98美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 白银已经再次新高，100美元大关希望很大，但是依然提防大幅度回落的可能。短期重点支撑在90-9 ...

Group 1 - Investors took profits after recent gold price highs, leading to a 0.43% decline in spot gold, closing at $4,595.03 per ounce [1] - Spot silver fell by 2.3%, ending at $90.08 per ounce [1] - Despite reduced likelihood of U.S. action against Iran, political risks remain, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.12% to $59.23 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.52% to $64.21 per barrel [1] Group 2 - President Trump imposed tariffs on eight European countries regarding Greenland, prompting the EU to hold an emergency meeting [1] - The European Union expressed concerns that U.S. tariff threats could damage transatlantic relations and lead to a dangerous cycle [1] - France indicated it may request the activation of the EU's anti-coercion tool if necessary [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the strategic importance of Greenland to U.S. security [1] - President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position, while Hassett downplayed investigations into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman highlighted potential layoff risks and urged against signaling a pause in interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors may perceive President Trump's tariff threats regarding Greenland as two significant shocks to Europe, leading to a risk-averse market reaction without a clear strengthening of the dollar [1] Group 1 - The market response is characterized by a risk-averse sentiment, yet there is no notable increase in the dollar's value [1] - The euro remains strong, indicating that investors view the situation not only as a growth shock but also as a geopolitical and systemic shock [1] - Tariffs are being used as leverage for a wide range of issues beyond trade, resulting in a more persistent risk premium that is harder to hedge [1]

Group 1 - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth €93 billion as a countermeasure against US tariff threats [1][2] - The EU is discussing the reactivation of a previously prepared tariff list that was postponed to avoid a full-blown trade war, with a deadline for the suspension set for February 6 [2] - Global risk assets have collectively declined, with major stock indices and cryptocurrencies experiencing significant drops following the news of potential tariffs [1] Group 2 - Eight European countries issued a joint statement condemning the US tariff threats, emphasizing the need for a coordinated response to protect their sovereignty [3][4] - The statement reaffirms support for Denmark and Greenland, asserting that military exercises conducted in the region are aligned with transatlantic interests and pose no threat [4] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin defended the tariff strategy as a geopolitical decision, claiming it reflects America's strength compared to perceived European weakness [6]

Group 1 - Spot gold opened higher on Monday, reaching $4,660 per ounce, marking a new historical high with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - Spot silver peaked at $92.81 per ounce, showing a rise of 2.8% [1] - WTI crude oil opened down 0.8% but quickly rebounded, nearly erasing the losses [1] Group 2 - The news highlights a tariff threat from Trump regarding Greenland, which may impact trade relations [1] - Multiple EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods valued at €930 billion [1]

现货黄金涨破4650美元关口，创历史新高。现货白银涨超2%。此前特朗普就格陵兰岛问题发出关税威 胁。 ...