Group 1 - The article highlights the severe implications of the U.S. imposing a 100% punitive tariff on Russian goods if a ceasefire is not reached within 50 days, which could effectively sever the limited trade channels between the U.S. and Russia [1][5] - The U.S. Senator Graham's threat of imposing up to 500% tariffs on countries like China that maintain trade relations with Russia indicates a broader strategy to reshape global trade flows through economic coercion [1][3] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov's visit to China is seen as a strategic move to seek support from China amidst increasing Western pressure, emphasizing the importance of Sino-Russian cooperation [1][8] Group 2 - China's response to the U.S. tariffs is clear and consistent, with a strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and a commitment to political solutions for the Ukraine crisis, reflecting its independent foreign policy stance [3][6] - The current U.S.-Russia trade is nearly frozen, with a projected bilateral trade volume of only about $600 million in 2024, making the 100% tariff more of a political gesture than a practical measure [5][6] - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs as a weapon is facing challenges due to the resilience of major powers like China and Russia, indicating a potential failure of the U.S. approach to leverage tariffs to influence global dynamics [8]

美国零售销售在各领域全面反弹，或有助于缓解部分对消费者支出回落的担忧。13个零售类别中有10个 实现增长，主要受汽车销售带动，汽车销售在连续两个月下滑后回升。今年以来，由于关税威胁加剧多 年来的生活成本压力，美国人对经济和自身财务状况大多持悲观态度，尽管近期信心有所回升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are warning that global investors may be underestimating President Trump's commitment to his latest tariff threats, which could have significant implications for the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The European market reacted mildly to Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, with the Stoxx 600 index only dropping 0.06% on the first trading day after the announcement [2] - The index experienced a slightly deeper sell-off of 0.4% the following day, primarily influenced by concerns over rising inflation and economic growth [2] - In contrast to earlier market reactions, the current sentiment appears more complacent, despite the impending higher tariff rates compared to those set in April [2][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are betting on the "TACO" trade, believing that Trump's tariff threats are merely negotiation tactics and unlikely to be fully realized [3] - Some analysts express concern that this complacency could lead to significant losses for investors who expect a trade agreement to be reached [3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the implementation of a 30% tariff could derail the current bullish trend in European markets, potentially leading to a slowdown in GDP growth [6] - The Stoxx 600 index has risen over 7% this year, with significant gains in major indices like Germany's DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB, but high tariffs could disrupt this momentum [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - If tariffs are implemented, sectors such as defense, finance, and mining may perform relatively well, especially if defense spending continues to rise and the European Central Bank maintains low interest rates [6] - Conversely, European exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, are expected to be adversely affected by the tariffs [6]

有关美国总统特朗普即将解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的消息在7月16日引发市场剧烈波动：长期美债收益率 和通胀预期飙升，股市和美元大幅下跌。随后，特朗普迅速表示自己"极不可能"试图罢免鲍威尔，仍认 为鲍威尔的政策宽松步伐不够快，市场部分回稳。 当前市场普遍认为，特朗普未必会真正落实现有的关税或人事威胁，因此5%的收益率门槛仍具有一定 支撑，尤其是因为短期通胀预期仍处于相对温和水平。虽然5月份两年期盈亏平衡通胀率曾升至约 3.4%，但随着几份通胀数据表现尚可，该指标已回落至2.7%左右。 然而，如果特朗普确实在美联储或贸易方面采取激进行动，通胀预期将被推高，整个收益率曲线也将随 之上移。此外，长期利率对通胀不确定性的反应最为敏感，曲线倾向进一步变陡。不过，若鲍威尔真的 被撤职，引发的市场波动可能更偏向利率下行的风险。 分析师认为，特朗普正在试探罢免鲍威尔的可能性。市场的剧烈反应似乎让他暂时收回了相关言论，但 白宫与美联储之间进一步升级冲突的风险正在上升。 媒体报道，到目前为止，5%的收益率水平一直充当着30年期美债的上限。但如果特朗普真的付诸行 动，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，或是如近期相关信函中所暗示的那样，对贸易伙伴征收更 ...

德国财政部长克林贝尔：特朗普的关税威胁对美国经济的影响至少和欧洲的企业一样大。 ...

金十数据7月16日讯，欧洲央行管委内格尔在接受采访时表示，需要"稳健之手"来应对特朗普最新关税 威胁所带来的不确定性。他表示，就货币政策而言，目前需要"稳健的政策"，地缘政治环境和与美国的 贸易冲突对价格的影响"极其不确定"。欧洲央行在6月的上次会议后表示，7月会议可能会维持利率不 变。五位政策制定者表示，特朗普威胁对欧盟进口商品征收30%的关税使决策变得复杂，但不太可能破 坏这一计划。 欧洲央行内格尔呼吁在关税动荡中保持政策稳健 ...

美国总统特朗普14日表示，如果俄乌50天内达不成协议，美国将对俄罗斯征收100%的关税，对购买俄 罗斯石油的国家征收次级关税。对此，俄罗斯政治学家马列克.杜达科夫表示，俄方会冷静对待美国的 相关举措。他说，他认为俄罗斯不会在政治、军事或经济领域出现急剧转变。俄方对潜在风险的评估始 终保持冷静态度。对于特朗普说美国将通过北约向乌克兰提供先进武器装备，杜达科夫称受限于美国军 工复合体目前的效率，最终这些武器投入实战的时间是一个问题。(央视新闻) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weather conditions in the Midwest of the United States are favorable, enhancing the expectation of a bountiful autumn harvest, which continues to suppress the soybean market sentiment. The soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mostly closed lower, with the benchmark contract slightly down [3]. - The good rate of U.S. soybeans as of July 13 was 70%, higher than last week's 66%, last year's 68%, and the market - expected 67% [3]. - The market is concerned about President Donald Trump's tariff threats, fearing that importers may retaliate by restricting purchases of U.S. agricultural products [3]. - China's soybean imports in June reached a record high due to a surge in imports from Brazil [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE Bean No.1 2509: The day - session closing price was 4131 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan (+0.81%); the night - session closing price was 4149 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan (+0.80%) [1]. - DCE Soybean Meal 2509: The day - session closing price was 2992 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan (+0.71%); the night - session closing price was 2988 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (+0.37%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1007.25 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents (-0.02%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 281.5 dollars/short ton, down 2.5 dollars (-0.88%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - Shandong: The price of 43% soybean meal was 2850 - 2890 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months [1]. - East China: The price in Taizhou Huifu was 2820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, with various basis levels for different months [1]. - South China: The price was 2790 - 2940 yuan/ton, up 0 - 10 yuan from the previous day, with different basis levels for different months [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 15.65 million tons per day on the day before the previous trading day [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading day, and it was 77.07 million tons per week on the day before the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 14, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed lower. The favorable weather conditions in the Midwest of the United States enhanced the expectation of a good harvest in autumn, which continued to suppress the market sentiment. The good rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected. The market was also concerned about tariff threats and China's record - high soybean imports in June [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was - 1; the trend intensity of bean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day - session of the reporting day [3].

德国电视一台 13 日报道，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格，用 "傲慢无礼" 来形容美政府的信函。他 说，欧美都密集谈判三个多星期了，还提出了保障共同利益的建议，结果特朗普突然决定加征关税，这 根本没道理，既没诚意，也缺乏应有的尊重。法新社援引德国工业联合会的表态称，美国政府这信函， 给 "大西洋两岸的工业界敲响了警钟"。意大利葡萄酒协会也表示，华盛顿这做法，在盟友关系里写下了 "最黑暗的一页"。法国《世界报》更是形容，美国这做法，对欧盟来说就像 "一记耳光"。 最近国际经济形势又有大变动啦！当地时间 7 月 12 日，美国总统特朗普宣布，自 8 月 1 日起，要对从 欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收 30% 的关税。这消息一传出，可谓是掀起了惊涛骇浪。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布了致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆的信 。他宣称，墨西哥没能 阻止芬太尼等流入美国，在协助美国阻止非法移民入境方面也做得不到位；而欧盟呢，其关税和非关税 贸易壁垒，让美国对欧贸易出现了巨额逆差，双方关系远远称不上互惠互利。 这信里的措辞，和过去一周发给其他国家领导人的信差不多。都在警告对方别对加税进行报复，还鼓励 对方企业搬到美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump has threatened pharmaceutical companies with a potential 200% tariff on imported drugs, but the market has reacted calmly due to the provided grace period for companies to adjust [1][2] - The grace period of "one to one and a half years" allows pharmaceutical companies ample time to stockpile and shift production, significantly reducing investor concerns [1][2] - Major pharmaceutical companies are already taking proactive measures, such as stockpiling drugs and increasing domestic production investments, indicating that industry confidence remains intact despite tariff threats [1][3] Group 2 - The grace period could extend until 2027, and companies may further extend their response time to 2028 through stockpiling, providing a strategic planning window for long-term adjustments [2] - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating stockpiling, with hormone drug exports from Ireland to the U.S. valued at $36 billion this year, more than double last year's total [3] - Companies like Eli Lilly are investing heavily in U.S. manufacturing, with a $27 billion expansion plan, and tax incentives from Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" are helping to mitigate the costs of establishing new facilities [3]