Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after a period of adjustment, with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [1][9] - Despite signs of short-term adjustments, the overall downward space for the index is limited, suggesting a phase of consolidation rather than a significant decline [1][9] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, driven by ongoing policy support and improved liquidity conditions [1][9] Sector Analysis Military Industry - The military sector has shown significant growth, with a 25.27% increase in the second half of 2020 and a 16.30% increase in the first half of 2023, outperforming the broader market [6] - Continued government support for military modernization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive further investment in this sector [6] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 suggests that investors should look for opportunities in aviation, defense information technology, and military materials, while being cautious of high valuations [6] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen a notable price increase due to factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [7][8] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand, although caution is advised against chasing prices after significant gains [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain rationality and strategic discipline, focusing on high-quality sectors and selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [2][10] - It is recommended to avoid stocks that have risen significantly but show questionable performance or negative expectations, optimizing portfolio structure during adjustments [2][10] - Aggressive investors may consider technology growth stocks that have corrected, while conservative investors should wait for market stabilization [2][10]

瑞士联邦委员会表示，通过与瑞士工商界的沟通，联邦委员会已为与美国谈判制定了新策略。瑞士准备 提出更具吸引力的方案，同时考虑美国关切并寻求缓解当前关税状况。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 人民财讯8月4日电，瑞士联邦委员会当地时间8月4日表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关 税后，瑞士决定继续进行谈判，必要时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland, significantly higher than the tariffs imposed by the EU (15%) and the UK (10%) [2][3] - Swiss watch companies experienced a 9% drop in stock prices following the announcement of the new tariff [2] - An initial agreement set the tariff rate at 10%, but U.S. President Trump accused Switzerland of "stealing" from the U.S. during a phone call, leading to the unexpected increase [2][5] Group 2 - Swiss officials expressed feelings of betrayal, stating they felt "stabbed in the back" after the U.S. raised the tariff unexpectedly [5][7] - The Swiss government had previously reached an understanding with the U.S. that was believed to be a mere procedural formality [5] - The trade deficit of nearly $40 billion between the U.S. and Switzerland was a major concern for Trump, who demanded solutions to reduce it [7][9] Group 3 - The Swiss National Bank argues that gold, a significant export, should not be included in the trade deficit calculations as it is a special reserve asset [7] - Swiss companies, including major pharmaceutical firms, have created approximately 500,000 jobs in the U.S., highlighting the economic ties between the two countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government, led by President Lula, firmly opposes the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian exports, asserting that Brazil will not yield to U.S. pressure and will defend its sovereignty [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The U.S. has announced a 40% tariff on Brazilian exports effective from August 6, with most products facing an increased tariff rate of 50% [5]. - U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the new round of tariffs, including the 50% tariff on Brazil, is largely finalized and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [3]. Group 2: Brazilian Response - President Lula emphasized that Brazil is not a minor player and will not accept U.S. tariffs as a form of political coercion, indicating a commitment to equal dialogue [1][3]. - Brazil plans to negotiate with the U.S. regarding the tariffs and will implement reciprocal measures if negotiations fail [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. White House announced on July 31 that Taiwan's "equivalent" tax rate will be adjusted to 20%, leading to ongoing controversy within Taiwan [1] - Taiwan's Vice Premier Zheng Lijun stated that negotiations will continue to seek better tax rates, following the U.S. government's notification of the tax rate reduction from 32% to 20% [1] - The Taiwanese government claims the new tax rate is a "temporary adjustment" and has achieved "stage results," but there are concerns about potential upward adjustments if negotiations do not meet U.S. expectations [1] Group 2 - The Taiwanese media reports that compared to other major trade deficit countries, Taiwan's tax rate remains high, raising concerns about the potential for increased tariffs if negotiations fail [1] - There are indications that Taiwan may consider increasing purchases of U.S. beef and grains in exchange for lower tariffs, highlighting the transactional nature of the negotiations [1] - Public sentiment is critical, with netizens questioning the effectiveness of the government's negotiation strategy and expressing concerns about the implications of the new tax rate on Taiwan's economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists report that the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India are unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The tariff rate and the threat of penalties may place India at a disadvantage [1] - India's tariff rates are higher than those of other regional countries, only slightly lower than the 26% rate announced in April [1] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - As trade negotiations between the two countries continue, India may secure lower tariffs from the U.S. [1] - Barclays suggests that the RBI's monetary policy committee should act cautiously and not overly worry about the potential impact of these tariffs on economic growth [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Barclays anticipates a "dovish pause" from the RBI in its upcoming meeting [1]

波黑塞族共和国广电网7月31日报道。波黑驻美大使馆收到美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）欧洲事务主 任 Ellen House 来信，确认将启动与波黑的关税谈判。（驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：美国贸易代表办公室确认将启动与波黑的关税谈判） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US tariff negotiations, highlighting the complexities and ongoing challenges between the US and a major trading partner, referred to as "东大" (East Big) [1] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The US has established "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Brazil and the UK the lowest at 10% [1] - Most countries, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, have a tariff rate set at 15%, while Vietnam's rate is 20% [1] First Negotiation - The first negotiation occurred in May, prompted by a significant rise in US Treasury yields following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which led to fears of a market crash [2][3] - The US Treasury yield for 10-year bonds surged from 3.99% to 4.6%, and 30-year yields exceeded 5%, increasing interest expenses by over $180 billion in a short period [2] Second Negotiation - The second negotiation in June focused on rare earth exports, resulting in the US pausing chip export controls to China while China relaxed restrictions on civilian rare earth exports [4] - This negotiation was crucial for the US, which relies heavily on rare earth materials from East Big [4] Ongoing Challenges - The US faces two significant vulnerabilities: the risk in the Treasury market and insufficient strategic resource reserves, particularly rare earths [5] - Both countries are reluctant to fully decouple but also unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a prolonged negotiation process [6][7] Future Outlook - The next three months will involve both parties reassessing their negotiation strategies and preparing for potential economic impacts of a complete decoupling [7] - The US may consider interest rate cuts to alleviate Treasury market pressures, while East Big will focus on stimulating domestic demand [8] Economic Implications - The potential for US interest rate cuts could influence global asset prices, impacting non-dollar assets and safe-haven investments [8] - The article suggests that the outcome of these negotiations and economic strategies will shape the global capital market landscape in the coming months [9]

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently stable at 1.1419 [1] - Norway's trade minister Cecilie Myrseth stated that tariff negotiations with the U.S. government are "not yet concluded" [1] - Norway has received a 15% tariff rate but continues to work with the U.S. government to reach an agreement [1]