Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 100%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut rather than the traditional 25 basis points due to weak employment data [1][2] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts, moving the timeline for the Fed's first rate cut to September, with a probability of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year exceeding 50% [2] - The recent employment report showed a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs compared to earlier estimates, reinforcing the argument for a significant rate cut [2] Group 2 - The market is now focused on the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.5% for July, down 0.1 percentage points from June [3] - The retail sales figures will serve as a critical indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with any disappointing data potentially increasing pressure for a shift in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The list of potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations within the Trump administration for leadership changes at the Fed [4][5] - Notable candidates include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Dallas Fed President Logan, among others [5] - Recent comments from Fed policymakers suggest a shift towards a more dovish stance, with some members indicating support for rate cuts due to concerns over employment and economic conditions [5][6] Group 4 - Economic analysts suggest that the Fed's decision in September will depend on further labor market weakness and moderate inflation related to tariffs [6] - Current economic conditions are compared to last year's pre-rate cut environment, with signs of cooling in the economy and potential job market pressures [6] - The complexity of the current economic environment, influenced by tariff-related price increases, may lead the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy if labor market conditions continue to deteriorate [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's economists predict that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Nomura forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, indicating a consensus on the direction of monetary policy [1] - Divergence in Economic Analysis - There is a divergence among economists regarding the timing of the rate cuts, with some previously expecting the Fed to hold off on easing until later in the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data has strengthened Bowman’s support for multiple interest rate cuts this year, suggesting that a rate cut in September would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Bowman emphasizes the need for three interest rate cuts this year due to signs of weakness in the labor market, with July data showing only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating further labor market concerns [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman has shifted from supporting a stable interest rate policy earlier this year to advocating for rate cuts, having voted against maintaining rates in July alongside fellow board member Waller [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Bowman’s recent statements indicate a more dovish stance [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Bowman reiterated her view that tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation, suggesting that confidence in the absence of sustained inflationary pressure from tariffs is growing [2][5] - She believes that the risks to price stability are diminishing as the outlook on tariffs and inflation becomes clearer [2][5]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts in 2025, citing weak labor market data as a reinforcement of her stance [1] - Bowman urges other central bank policymakers to begin rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting to prevent further deterioration of the labor market [1] - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [2] Group 2 - Bowman will host a community bank meeting on October 9 to discuss potential reforms to the capital framework for these banks [3] - Concerns have been raised about the competitive landscape for community banks, which have been losing market share to larger banks [3] - Bowman emphasizes the importance of community banks as foundational to the banking and financial system, providing support to local communities and customers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted to a more dovish stance, supporting three interest rate cuts this year and urging the central bank to initiate a cut in September [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak labor market data has reinforced Bowman's view in favor of multiple rate cuts, suggesting that a September cut would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - In July, employers added only 73,000 jobs, which was below expectations, and previous months' job growth data was revised down by nearly 260,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Bowman reiterated her belief that price increases driven by tariffs are unlikely to sustain upward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the risks to price stability have diminished [1][2] - Confidence is growing that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation, which supports her argument for rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Shift - Bowman's shift in monetary policy stance is notable, as she previously supported maintaining interest rates but has now aligned with calls for a 25 basis point cut, marking a significant change in her position [1] - Her support for rate cuts comes after a rare dissenting vote alongside Governor Waller during the July Federal Reserve decision, highlighting a divergence in views among Fed officials [1]

盘前市场动向 1. 8月7日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.54%，标普500指数期货涨0.61%，纳指期货涨 0.74%。 市场消息 俄美首脑峰会在即，外交曙光提振全球市场。克里姆林宫周四宣布，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于 未来几天内举行峰会会谈。克里姆林宫外交政策顾问尤里·乌沙科夫向记者表示，俄美双方已就会议地点达成一致，"正与美国同 事共同推进具体议题磋商"，目标是下周举行会谈。他同时透露，峰会举办地将在后续公布。消息公布后，欧洲股市及美国股指 期货应声上涨。 美联储三官员齐发警告：劳动力市场持续疲软，9月降息预期升温。旧金山联储主席戴利指出，当前劳动力市场已显现疲软迹 象，若进一步恶化将引发政策调整需求。美联储理事库克表示，前三个月就业数据累计下调近26万个岗位(其中7月新增就业仅 7.3万个)，这种大幅修正往往是经济周期转折的典型特征。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利更是直言："经济正在放缓，短期内 启动联邦基金利率调整是合适的。" "旺季已过"?汇丰预计美股盈利增长将在下半年踩刹车。汇丰表示，美股又经历了一轮业绩大爆发的财报季，标普500指数在 ...

盘前市场动向 1.8月7日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.54%，标普500指数期货涨0.61%，纳指期货涨 0.74%。 | = US 30 | 44,432.50 | 44,488.00 | 44.139.00 | +239.10 | +0.54% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US 500 | 6.384.10 | 6.401.80 | 6,339.40 | +39.00 | +0.61% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 23,488.40 | 23,528.60 | 23,277.10 | +173.40 | +0.74% | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.73%，英国富时100指数跌0.71%，法国CAC40指数涨1.26%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.57%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,318.45 | 24,391.63 | 23,905.00 | +413.92 | +1.73% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | 9,099 ...

Core Insights - Three Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concerns about the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and hinted that a rate cut may be initiated in the September meeting [1] - Data revealed that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below market expectations [1] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of weakness, raising alarms among Federal Reserve officials [1] - The addition of 73,000 non-farm jobs in July is a stark contrast to the anticipated figures, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]

按照惯例，在本周美联储议息会议上投下反对票的监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周五发表异议声明，阐述坚持要求降息的理由。 （来源：美联储） （米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒） 两人均强调劳动力市场现疲软信号 在周五各自发布的声明中，鲍曼和沃勒均强调美国劳动力市场已经出现疲软迹象。 鲍曼表示，目前适合逐步从适度紧缩的政策立场向中性水平转移，以主动防范经济进一步恶化及就业市场受损的风险。她强调，由于需求疲软以及劳动力市 场的脆弱表现，美联储应当更为关注就业风险。 她也进一步补充称，延迟采取行动的风险在于可能导致劳动力市场恶化和经济增长进一步放缓。采取积极主动的方式向中性水平靠近，可以避免劳动力市场 状况不必要地恶化，并减少委员会未来不得不进行大幅政策调整的可能性。 沃勒则是隐隐暗示，美联储周三商讨决议时就已经知道非农要大幅下修。 他写道："尽管劳动力市场表面看起来良好，但考虑到预期的数据修正，私营部门就业实际增长几近停滞，且其他数据表明劳动力市场的下行风险增加......我 们不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才降息。" 持续观望过于谨慎 沃勒表示，尊重同事们对关税影响采取"观望"态度的观点，持有不同看法并无不妥 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor data supports calls for monetary easing, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.295%, while the 2-year yield is at 3.801% [1] - July saw only 73,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - Previous employment data has been significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] - Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns about the labor market's weakness prior to the employment report [1]