Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 594 million yuan, up 18.38% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.42% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46.53% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 594 million yuan, marking an 18.38% increase year-on-year and a 38.61% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The annualized ROE for Q1 2025 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cost-to-profit ratio improved to 6.6%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Industry and Market Trends - The international oil price fluctuated at a high level, with the average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2025 at $74.98 per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The domestic oilfield service market continues to grow steadily, driven by high oil prices and national energy security strategies [2]. - The global oil service market is expected to maintain growth, with a projected market size of $326.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [5]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a gross profit margin of 12.90%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points [4]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation, aiming to develop 10 digital products by 2024 and enhance operational efficiency through the application of artificial intelligence [4]. - The production capacity of the intelligent injection workshop is expected to increase from 300 sets per year to 2,000 sets per year, with a first-pass yield rate exceeding 99% [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing "increase reserves and production" initiatives led by its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with production growth targets of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is focused on providing comprehensive production and sales support in offshore oil production, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [5]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 4.262 billion yuan, 4.698 billion yuan, and 5.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil service sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The global upstream capital expenditure is expected to rebound in 2025, with a projected increase of over $582.4 billion, representing a 5% year-on-year growth, which lays a solid foundation for the oil service sector's prosperity [1][10] - The average day rate for global self-elevating platforms reached $103,600 per day in March 2025, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, while semi-submersible platforms averaged $248,400 per day, up 2.7% year-on-year, indicating sustained market demand [1][15] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are increasing capital expenditures and oil and gas production, which is expected to benefit their affiliated oil service companies significantly [2][18] - The performance of oil service companies continues to improve, with notable profit growth reported for subsidiaries of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in Q1 2025 [3][30] - The operational quality of oil service companies is improving, enhancing their competitiveness in the international market [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Prosperity and Performance - Global upstream capital expenditure is projected to recover, with 2024 offshore exploration and development investment expected to grow by 8.6% year-on-year, while onshore investment is anticipated to decline by 7.9% due to stagnation in North America [1][10] - The oil service market is expected to reach $316.1 billion in 2024, growing by 3%, and $326.5 billion in 2025, with a 3.3% increase [10] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China plan to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with respective budgets of CNY 210 billion, CNY 76.7 billion, and CNY 130 billion, supporting production growth [2][18] 2. Performance of Oil Service Companies - CNOOC's subsidiaries have shown significant profit growth, with net profits for CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development growing at CAGRs of 15%, 22%, and 23% from 2022 to 2024 [3][30] - In Q1 2025, CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development reported net profits of CNY 88.7 million, CNY 54.1 million, and CNY 59.4 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 40%, 14%, and 18% respectively [3][30] 3. Improvement in Operational Quality - The gross margin of CNOOC's subsidiaries improved in Q1 2025, with increases of 1.9 percentage points for CNOOC Services and 3.9 percentage points for CNOOC Engineering compared to the previous year [4][37] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC Services and CNOOC Engineering increased by 0.7 percentage points and decreased by 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating a trend of improving operational quality [4][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their affiliated oil service firms, as well as leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors [5]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 "三桶油" 24 年再创佳绩，油价波动期业绩韧性凸显 2024 年布油均价为 79.86 美元 / 桶，同比 -2.8% ，总体维持高位，但 24 年 9 月至 12 月受中东地缘政治缓 和、原油需求预期下行等因素影响，国际油价快速下跌。中国石油实现归母净利润 1647 亿元，同比 +2% ，中国海油实现归母净利润 1379 亿元，同比 +11% ，中国石化受炼化业务拖累，实现归母净利润 503 亿 元，同比 -17% ，但上游板块息税前利润逆势增长 24% 。 2024 年，海外石油巨头受炼油盈利走弱、天然 气销量下降等因素影响，业绩持续下行。埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、 BP 、道达尔 24 年归母净利润分别 同比 -6% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 52.517 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.656 billion yuan, up 18.66% year-on-year [4][5]. - The domestic market remains the primary revenue source, contributing 98.78% of total revenue, with an improvement in domestic business gross margin by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is diversifying its operations into areas such as LNG refueling and renewable energy, including significant projects in offshore solar energy [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 18.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.48% [4]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 14.62%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost control and efficiency improvements [5]. Cost Structure and R&D - The company optimized its expense structure, with sales expenses slightly increasing due to business development, while financial expenses decreased due to higher interest income from bank deposits [6]. - R&D expenses decreased as the company focused on major projects and improved the quality and efficiency of its research activities [6]. Technological Development and Diversification - The company has established a technical system for marginal oilfield development and is expanding into LNG refueling and green energy sectors [7]. - Significant projects include the construction of the first gigawatt-level offshore solar project and the launch of a new LNG refueling vessel [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.079 billion yuan, 4.656 billion yuan, and 5.402 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8, 8.6, and 7.4 [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential for excess returns in certain segments under tariff impacts [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical index has historically underperformed the broader market, but segments like refining and oil services have shown periods of excess returns [5][6]. - As of April 11, 2025, refining margins for major domestic refineries reached 767 CNY/ton, with a significant month-on-month increase of 24.16% [9]. - The report highlights that the current procurement of crude oil in China is primarily from Russia and Middle Eastern countries, limiting the impact on refining costs from U.S. imports [9]. - The oil service sector is expected to continue its upward trend due to domestic requirements for increased reserves and production [11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at 64.76 USD/barrel on April 11, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [20]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 583, down by 7 rigs week-on-week [30]. Refining Sector - The report notes a recovery in refining profitability, with domestic refining margins improving significantly [9]. - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at 9.87 USD/barrel, down by 4.08 USD/barrel from the previous week [9]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, with the average price in East China at 4316.25 CNY/ton, down 11.43% week-on-week [9]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry is currently underperforming but may improve as new capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [16]. - It also suggests looking at companies with high dividend yields like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [16]. - For the ethylene production segment, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [16]. - In the polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are recommended as they are expected to benefit from tightening supply-demand conditions [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies [7] Core Insights - The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict highlights the importance of energy security, with China's reliance on oil imports projected at 72% and natural gas at 43% for 2024 [1][13] - Oil price volatility is exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 13.3% and 13.6% respectively since the beginning of April 2025 [2][18] - The "Big Three" oil companies are expected to show resilience in earnings despite oil price fluctuations, with projected production increases of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2025 [3][31] - High dividend payouts and share buybacks are expected to enhance the long-term investment value of the "Big Three" oil companies, with dividend payout ratios of 52%, 69%, and 45% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2024 [4][48] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the strategic value of state-owned enterprises in ensuring energy security amid rising import dependence and geopolitical tensions [1][17] Section 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production decisions, with the marginal cost for new shale oil wells estimated at $65 per barrel [2][26] Section 3: Company Performance - The "Big Three" oil companies are projected to maintain profitability with net profit increases of 2.0% for China National Petroleum, 11% for CNOOC, and a 24% increase in upstream EBIT for Sinopec [3][31] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their subsidiaries, as well as leading companies in refining and coal chemical sectors, given the favorable long-term outlook [5]

2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究 增持体现大股东发展信心，油价波动期公司经营韧性凸显 ——中国石油（601857.SH/0857.HK）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于控股股东增持公司股份计划的公告》，控股股东中国石油 集团拟增持公司股份，拟增持金额不少于人民币 28 亿元（含本数），不超过人 民币 56 亿元（含本数）。 点评： 增持彰显大股东对公司发展信心，看好公司长期发展前景。中国石油集团将使用 自有资金，分别通过上海证券交易所交易系统集中竞价方式及香港联合交易所有 限公司系统场内交易方式增持公司 A 股及 H 股股份。综合考虑市场波动、资金 安排、境内外监管要求等因素并为保障本次增持计划顺利实施，中国石油集团及 其全资子公司将自本公告日起 12 个月内完成本次增持计划。本次增持体现了中 国石油集团对公司未来发展前景的信心，表明公司对资本市场的积极态度。 一体化产业链优势显著，油价波动期彰显公司业绩韧性。2024 年布油均价为 79.86 美元/桶，同比-2.8%，公司积极应对形势变化，持续加大勘探开发力度， 深入推进炼化转型升级，依托全产业链优势抵御油价波动，24 年归母净利润同 比+2.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 420.51 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year. However, in the fourth quarter alone, revenue decreased by 13.94% year-on-year to 94.48 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 18.78% to 21.28 billion yuan [2][6]. - The company's oil and gas net production significantly increased, achieving better performance than market oil price fluctuations, with a total net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12]. - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 was $79.86 per barrel, down 2.81% year-on-year, while the company achieved an average oil price of $76.75 per barrel, a decline of 1.6%, which was less than the Brent price drop [12]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a major cost advantage in barrel oil production, where the main cost was $28.52 per barrel, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [12]. - Future outlook suggests that oil prices are expected to stabilize at a mid-to-high level, with net production targets set for 2025-2027 ranging from 760 to 830 million barrels of oil equivalent, indicating steady growth [12]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44.7% for 2024, with total dividends amounting to about 66.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 420.51 billion yuan and net profit of 137.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.94% and 11.38% respectively [2][6]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue drop of 13.94% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 18.78% [2][6]. Production and Cost Management - The total net production reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects [12]. - The company maintained a competitive cost structure, with a barrel oil cost of $28.52, down 1.1% from the previous year [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates oil prices to remain above $70 per barrel, with production targets set for gradual increases over the next few years [12]. - The focus on shareholder returns is expected to continue, with a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% in the coming years [12].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in production and has committed to a higher dividend payout ratio [2] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [7] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance despite challenges such as asset impairment affecting profits [8] - The company has a leading position in the industry regarding reserve and production growth rates, with a capital expenditure of 132.7 billion yuan in 2024, the highest in its history [9] - The company is focused on shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of 1.40 Hong Kong dollars per share for 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 140.37 billion yuan, 146.32 billion yuan, and 154.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.79, 8.44, and 7.99 [13] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, with a net profit of 137.94 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share of 2.90 yuan [7][14] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 53.6% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.5% [14] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 1,056.28 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.0% [16]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a stable performance in 2024, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit, despite challenges in oil prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.936 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 94.482 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 21.277 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year and 42.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Oil Price Stability - The average Brent crude oil futures price in 2024 remained stable at 79.86 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the realized price for CNOOC's crude oil was 76.75 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year [2]. Production Growth - CNOOC's total oil and gas production reached 727 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company's capital expenditure for 2024 was 132.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment [3]. Dividend Policy - CNOOC maintained a strong dividend policy, with total cash dividends of 61.621 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 45% [4]. - The dividend yield for A-shares was 4.4% and for H-shares was 7.3%, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Investment Outlook - CNOOC is expected to continue benefiting from new project launches, with projected net profits of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.3X, 9.0X, and 8.8X [5].