Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations, with natural gas volume and price both increasing [1] - The upstream performance has significantly outperformed oil price volatility, with domestic crude oil production up 0.6% year-on-year and natural gas production up 4.7% [2] - The refining and sales segment is actively optimizing its structure due to the peak issue of refined oil products, with gasoline and diesel production down 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, while ethylene production increased by 5.3% [3] - The natural gas sales segment reported a profit increase, with sales volume reaching 1,515 billion cubic meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [4] - Capital expenditures have decreased to 642 billion, down 147 billion year-on-year, primarily from oil and gas and new energy sectors [5] Financial Data and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted to 150.9 billion for 2025, with 2026 and 2027 maintained at 169.2 billion and 174.1 billion respectively [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios for A-shares are projected at 10.5, 9.3, and 9.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while H-shares are at 7.5, 6.7, and 6.5 [5] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 52%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5% for A-shares and 7% for H-shares [5] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected at 3,011,012 million, with a growth rate of -5.54% [6] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 463,092.51 million, with a decline from previous years [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted at 150,854.99 million, reflecting an 8.39% decrease [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.82 [6] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease to 36.23% by 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is significantly pressured by multiple factors, including a decline in oil prices, leading to a revenue drop of 10.6% year-on-year to 1,409.05 billion, and a net profit decrease of 39.8% to 21.48 billion [1] - The upstream segment's earnings are notably impacted by falling oil prices, with crude oil production down 0.3% year-on-year and an average price of $67 per barrel, a 12.9% decrease [2] - The downstream business faces short-term challenges due to reduced inventory profits from declining oil prices, with refining margins remaining stable at 315 yuan per ton, but segment earnings down 50.4% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment is experiencing a significant decline in sales volume, with gasoline, diesel, and kerosene down 4.9%, 6.8%, and 8.4% respectively, leading to a revenue drop of 45.7% [4] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures by approximately 5%, which is expected to benefit long-term profitability and cash flow [5] Financial Summary - The company's projected net profit for 2025 has been adjusted to 43.5 billion, down from previous estimates due to oil price pressures, with a price-to-earnings ratio forecasted at 16 [6][8] - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 9% in 2025, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [6] - The dividend yield for A shares is estimated at 4.3% for 2025, while H shares are projected at 6.2% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - **Exploration and Development**: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - **Refining**: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - **Chemicals**: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - **Marketing and Distribution**: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]

公司报告 | 季报点评 中国石油（601857） 证券研究报告 降本超预期，Q1 业绩再证明抵抗油价波动能力 2025Q1 业绩略超我们和市场的预期 公司 2025Q1 营收 7531 亿元，同比-7.34%，其中归母净利润 468 亿元，同 比+2.27%，油价下跌的情况下，公司业绩再创历史新高，超出我们和市场 的预期。 降本效果明显，抵抗油气价下降的负面影响，上游利润仍然实现增长 勘探开发板块，2025Q1 原油产量同比+0.2%，天然气产量同比+1.2%。实现 油价 70 美元（同比-7.2%）；天然气价格 9.01 美元/mcf（同比-3.9%）。尽管 价格下滑明显，但是上游油气和新能源业务的经营利润达 461 亿，同比+30 亿，主要得益于单位操作成本下降（约贡献 21 亿）、油价下降导致税费支 出减少以及天然气增量贡献。 炼油及销售板块均面临成品油需求已达峰的压力，化工持续低迷 Q1 原油加工量同比-4.7%，成品油产量同比-6.3%，其中汽油产量同比-7.4%， 柴油产量同比-6.7%，煤油产量同比-2.3%，乙烯产量同比+0.04%，基本持 平。炼化板块经营利润 54 亿，同比减少约 27 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the ramp-up of the Malang coal mine [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, totaling 3.976 billion yuan, with a high payout ratio of 134.3%, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.6% based on the closing price [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.59%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.93% [5] - The coal production for 2024 was 43.2524 million tons, with sales reaching 47.234 million tons, marking increases of 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 367.93 yuan per ton, down 22.55% year-on-year, while the cost was 283.5 yuan per ton, down 8.63% year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The non-coal business faced challenges, with coal chemical production and sales showing mixed results, while natural gas business remained stable [5] - The company’s coal chemical production was 2.2645 million tons, with sales of 2.4694 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.36% in production but a decrease of 8.42% in sales [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and strategic partnerships, particularly in coal and coal chemical integration [5] - The introduction of a strategic partner for the Naomao Lake East coal mine is anticipated to accelerate development efforts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 735.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.3 billion yuan, down 27.58% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil and gas prices has significantly pressured the sector's profits, with oil equivalent production at 131 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while crude oil production decreased by 0.8% [2]. - Concerns over peak demand for refined oil have led to continued pressure on refining profits, with refining throughput at 6.2 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, and total refined oil sales at 5.6 million tons, down 7.1% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is set at 55.5 billion, 56.2 billion, and 61.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]. - The expected dividend yield for A shares in 2025 is projected at 5.6%, while H shares are expected to yield 9.0% [4]. - Financial data shows a projected revenue of 3,136.05 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.00% [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Sinopec's current market capitalization is approximately 555.2 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 541.5 billion yuan [6]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to be 12.47 for 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.80 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience against oil price fluctuations, achieving a record high net profit of 1647 billion for 2024, despite a backdrop of declining oil prices [1]. - The upstream segment has shown significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with crude oil production increasing by 0.5% and natural gas sales rising by 4.1% in 2024 [2]. - The refining segment faces challenges due to weak demand for refined oil products, leading to a 50% decline in refining unit profit [3]. - The natural gas sales segment has seen robust performance, with profits reaching 540 billion, a 25% increase year-on-year, attributed to lower import costs [4]. - The company plans capital expenditures of 2758 billion for 2024 and 2622 billion for 2025, with a strong operating cash flow of 4065 billion, resulting in a free cash flow of approximately 1307 billion after capital expenditures [5]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1698 billion and 1749 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1800 billion [5]. - The A-shares are expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.7 for 2025, while H-shares are projected at 5.5 [5]. - The dividend yield for A-shares in 2025 is estimated at 5.7%, and for H-shares, it is 9.0% [5]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2,937,981 million, with a slight decline of 2.43% year-on-year [6].