Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies, which negatively impact GDP growth forecasts for major economies in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Environment - Uncertainty is a critical factor in global economic development and outlook, largely stemming from unpredictable economic policies of major countries [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets for 2025 following trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times - Investors should focus on high-quality companies that can thrive in a high-interest-rate environment, as not all companies will flourish under increased financing costs [5]. - High-quality companies typically exhibit characteristics such as long-term management vision, strong adaptability, and valuations based on free cash flow [6]. - Active fund managers may have a greater willingness and ability to analyze these companies compared to passive managers, who often rely on market indices for portfolio construction [6]. Group 3: Importance of Long-Term Investment - Investment should be viewed as sharing in the growth of the economy and companies, rather than merely reacting to market fluctuations [6][7]. - The article stresses that market prices will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of companies over time, reinforcing the idea that short-term market movements should not dictate investment decisions [7]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Allocation - Diversification is essential for risk management, as it helps mitigate the impact of market uncertainties [8][9]. - The concept of correlation is crucial in constructing a diversified portfolio, as combining assets with low correlation can reduce overall investment risk [9][10]. - Regular rebalancing and careful consideration of asset correlations are necessary to maintain an effective multi-asset allocation strategy [10]. Group 5: Maintaining Confidence Amid Uncertainty - Investors should acknowledge and confront their fears regarding uncertainty, as this is a normal psychological response [11]. - Long-term commitment to investment, rather than attempting to time the market, is more likely to yield success [11][13]. - Historical data shows that markets tend to recover from uncertainties, reinforcing the importance of maintaining investment discipline and a diversified portfolio [13][14].

Core Insights - FOF products have demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, achieving an average return of 3.11% as of June 30, indicating a positive trend in multi-asset strategies [1][2][4] - The popularity of newly launched FOF products continues to rise, with a diverse range of product types and refined strategy designs, reflecting a growing acceptance of multi-asset strategies in the asset management industry [1][4][7] Performance Highlights - Top-performing FOFs in the first half of the year include Bohai Huijin Preferred Progress 6-Month Holding A, ICBC Smart Progress 1-Year A, and ICBC Pension 2050Y, with returns of 15.19%, 14.88%, and 14.59% respectively [2][3] - These successful FOFs predominantly utilize high elasticity and theme-driven asset allocation strategies, focusing on passive index funds while incorporating QDII and commodity assets [3][7] New Product Launches - A total of 31 new FOF products were launched in the first half of the year, with significant initial scales, indicating sustained market interest in multi-asset allocation tools [4][5] - Notable new products include Dongfanghong Yingfeng Stable Allocation 6-Month Holding with an initial scale of 6.573 billion, and other products like Fuguo Yinghe Zhenxuan 3-Month Holding and Nanfang Stable View 3-Month Holding, which also attracted considerable investment [4] Market Trends - The rapid expansion of FOFs in the domestic market reflects investor recognition of professional asset allocation and signifies the accelerated adoption of multi-asset strategies in China [7] - The current market environment, characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty and frequent rotations between equity and fixed income markets, has made the cross-asset, cross-cycle, and cross-style allocation philosophy advocated by FOFs increasingly relevant [7]

Group 1 - The approval of four innovative bond ETFs by Southern, Fortune, Jiashi, and Invesco marks a significant development in the technology innovation bond market, providing efficient investment channels for investors [1] - The total scale of domestic ETFs surpassed 4.3 trillion yuan as of June 25, setting a historical record, indicating a rapid growth in index-based investment [1] - The Shenzhen series indices have shown strong performance, with the number of products reaching 159 and a total scale of 283.8 billion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a 15% and 12% increase respectively since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The scale of bond ETFs has been continuously increasing, with the Shenzhen benchmark market credit bond ETF providing a convenient and transparent trading channel for mid-to-high-grade bonds, achieving explosive growth in scale [2] - As of the end of June, the Shenzhen benchmark market credit bond index has issued four ETFs with a scale exceeding 47 billion yuan, with over 20 billion yuan growth in June alone, showcasing its strong capital attraction [2] - The demand for multi-asset allocation is rising, with the launch of the first batch of four multi-asset indices and the deep AAA technology innovation bond index, providing diverse performance benchmarks and investment targets [2] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index, as a core index of the Shenzhen market, has become a popular benchmark with a strategic emerging industry weight of 92%, highlighting strengths in new-generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology [3] - The average R&D investment growth for sample companies in the ChiNext Index is projected to be 10% in 2024, indicating strong innovation vitality [3] - By the end of June, there were 49 index products established under the ChiNext Index system, with a total scale exceeding 150 billion yuan, effectively guiding funds towards high-growth and innovative sectors [3] Group 4 - The recent revisions to the ChiNext Index are expected to attract more ESG-preference funds, enhancing its appeal and investment potential [4] - The deep Shenzhen 100 index, which aggregates new quality blue-chip companies, has seen a rise in interest and demand for allocation, with seven new index products established this year [4] - The ChiNext 50 index, known for its role as a market leader during bullish phases, has also seen 13 new index products established this year, reflecting its growth resilience [4] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been actively promoting the development of key industry chain indices and related products, directing funds towards high-quality technology enterprises [5] - The "Chuang Series" indices cover various types, including broad-based, thematic, strategy, and ESG, with a total tracking product scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, providing rich vehicles for investors to capture industry transformation dividends [5] - There has been a significant increase in thematic index product layouts in artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine sectors, with the ChiNext AI index seeing a more than twofold growth in tracking product scale since the beginning of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment in China is deepening, leading to a structural asset shortage and forcing banks to adjust their liability rate mechanisms, impacting the wealth management market significantly [1]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Effect - The continuous decline in deposit rates has strengthened the "deposit migration" effect, with the scale of wealth management products returning to 30 trillion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Performance Pressure and Asset Allocation Transformation - Wealth management companies are continuously lowering the performance benchmarks of newly issued products, reflecting increased pressure on investment returns across the industry [5][6]. - Companies are accelerating the transition to multi-asset and multi-strategy allocations, introducing strategies like dividend+, gold+, and quantitative+ to address the "yield drought" [8][9]. - Investors are shifting preferences towards daily opening and minimum holding period fixed-income products, balancing liquidity and yield amid narrowing advantages of cash management products [11]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework Upgrade - Strict implementation of net value management and control over net value smoothing techniques is being enforced, with regulatory bodies addressing practices that deviate from the original intent of net value transformation [13][14]. - The information disclosure framework is being improved to enhance product transparency, addressing the complexities of multi-asset allocations and increasing volatility [13][14]. - The pace of license approvals for wealth management companies is slowing, leading to a differentiated competitive landscape where established firms focus on specialized product systems based on customer profiles [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF-FOF market is experiencing a resurgence since 2025, becoming an important tool in multi-asset allocation for institutions, driven by increased product launches and a shift in asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ETF-FOF market is entering a "second spring" with renewed interest from fund companies and investors, following a period of stagnation from 2023 to 2024 [2]. - Several new ETF-FOF products are being launched, including those from Zhongou Fund and other companies, indicating a growing trend in this investment category [2]. - The performance of existing ETF-FOF products has shown strong competitiveness, with notable returns such as 19.80% for FuGuo ZhiXin Industry Select A and 17.67% for ICBC RuiZhi JinQu A over the past year [3]. Group 2: Institutional Adoption - There is a significant increase in institutional interest in ETFs, with many funds, including public FOFs, bank wealth management subsidiaries, and insurance funds, raising their ETF allocation [4]. - The rise in ETF popularity among institutions is attributed to market conditions that favor high liquidity, low transaction costs, and the ability to trade intraday, making ETFs efficient tools for portfolio adjustments [4]. - The evolution of ETF products, which now cover a wider range of themes and strategies, has allowed them to compete effectively with active funds, particularly in niche areas [4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of ETFs - The transparency and stable style of ETFs make them attractive for FOFs, as they clearly express the investment strategies of FOF managers [5]. - ETFs are increasingly viewed as essential components of long-term FOF allocation strategies, moving beyond mere trading tools to become key drivers of diversification and precision in asset management [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Public Fund Industry Core Points and Arguments - The expansion of public fund scale is significantly correlated with excess returns, especially in favorable market years. However, current challenges in share and scale growth are evident, with a redemption rate of approximately 10% in Q4 and 2-3% in Q1 of the current year [1][2][3] - Adjusting to narrow-based indices (such as consumption, manufacturing, TMT) can improve the probability of outperforming benchmarks, but the win rate remains below 50%. Over the past three years, more than half of narrow-based index products failed to outperform benchmarks, indicating limited effectiveness of this strategy for excess returns [1][3] - In bond funds, a lower bond content and higher stock content correlate with increased difficulty in outperforming benchmarks. The significantly lower allocation to financial and cyclical sectors compared to index weights is a key factor, with potential for future weight increases in these sectors [1][3] - Achieving relative returns under new regulations requires attention to the stability of style and industry exposure, enhancing style and industry allocations to improve portfolio performance while controlling volatility. Industry-led investments have high potential for excess returns, but the risk-reward ratio is declining, making it a suboptimal strategy [1][3][4] - For absolute returns, multi-asset allocation can simplify investment processes. Relative returns require clarity on the stability of various benchmarks' style and industry exposures, along with methods to enhance these while controlling volatility [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Public funds should allocate at least half of their positions to benchmark indices and use the other half to seek excess returns, regardless of whether through style or industry allocation. Financial sectors, particularly non-bank and bank stocks, are notably underweighted in public funds compared to their index allocations [10][14] - The risk control benchmark can be compared to index-enhanced products, with the median risk of these products showing a relative drawdown of about 10%. If actively managed equity products can achieve a 10% relative drawdown with higher annualized excess returns, they will outperform traditional ETFs and broad index products [5][6] - The probability of selecting industries that yield over 1% excess returns annually is low, typically around 10%, with a special case in 2021 where 30% of industries met this standard. Achieving 10% excess returns is considered a high target for public funds [9][14] - The distinction between using style versus industry for excess returns is significant; style offers stability but lower ceilings, while industry can achieve higher ceilings but with less stability in win rates [11][14]

Group 1: Xinyu Guoke - Xinyu Guoke is rapidly developing in the field of explosive devices, which has become a major economic growth point for the company [1] - The company has won bids for four to five product models, and if these models can be finalized for mass production, it will bring considerable sales revenue [1] - The company has expansion plans, with a new special equipment production line project having obtained land use rights and undergoing internal technological upgrades [1] Group 2: Tianyuan Pet - The domestic pet market in China has seen rapid growth since 2010, with the urban pet (dog and cat) consumption market expected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.5% increase from 2023 [2] - The company has established an efficient multi-category product supply chain management system and is expanding production capacity in Vietnam and Cambodia [2] - The company plans to focus on its own brand, develop traditional e-commerce, and explore content e-commerce, with a projected domestic revenue of 1.431 billion yuan and a gross margin of 11.65% in 2024 [2] Group 3: Lianchuang Optoelectronics - Lianchuang Optoelectronics has introduced the progress and future plans of the "Spark One" project, which has entered the operational phase and is expected to complete key construction by 2028-2029 [3] - The company anticipates business development in 2023, focusing on upgrading laser products, expanding overseas, and ensuring delivery [3] - The company detailed the composition and R&D progress of superconducting coils in controlled nuclear fusion, highlighting the technical barriers and innovations in high-temperature superconducting technology [3] Group 4: Company Overview - Dunhe Asset Management Co., Ltd. was established on March 2, 2011, and is a domestic macro private equity fund company focused on investment in domestic and international capital markets [4] - The company has developed a multi-asset allocation strategy, utilizing various tools such as spot, futures, options, and OTC derivatives [4] - Dunhe Asset Management has an asset management scale exceeding 40 billion yuan, ranking among the top in the private equity securities investment fund industry [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline, with overall volatility remaining low, closing at a five-star rating [1] - The recent trend showed a reversal, with strong performance in small-cap stocks while larger financial stocks like banks and securities saw declines [2][4] - The CSI 300 index also showed a minor drop, while small-cap stocks increased [3] Hong Kong Stock Market - Recent earnings reports from Hong Kong stocks indicate continued growth for major companies like JD.com, Tencent, and Alibaba [6] - The first quarter reports for Hong Kong technology companies showed significant revenue and profit growth [7] - Following the earnings updates, the valuation of the Hong Kong technology index is expected to decrease [8] Index Valuation - The valuation metrics for various indices, including the Hang Seng Index and H-share Index, are provided, showing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and other financial indicators [11][12][13][14] - The Hang Seng Index has a P/E ratio of 12.97, while the H-share Index has a P/E ratio of 13.37, indicating a relatively stable valuation environment [11][12] Investment Strategies - The introduction of new indices by the China Securities Index Company focuses on constant proportion strategies for asset allocation, including stock and bond combinations [15][16] - Common asset allocation strategies include target risk (constant stock-bond ratios), target life cycle, target cash flow yield, and target valuation [18][25][31] - The constant proportion strategy allows for automatic rebalancing, which can help mitigate risks and enhance returns [20][22] Conclusion - The article highlights the current market dynamics, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, and discusses various investment strategies that can be employed to optimize asset allocation and manage risk effectively [5][15][20]

编者按： 十载春华秋实，鉴往知来；十年星河璀璨，与光同行。自破茧初啼至引领风潮，"金长江"评选始终以专业为炬、以公正为尺，丈量中国私募基金行业的奔腾浪 潮。值此华章再启之际，证券时报·券商中国倾情推出"金长江风华录·十年十人"，特邀十位穿越牛熊周期的行业翘楚，以躬身力行的灼见为经纬，以栉风沐雨的 征程为注脚，共同镌刻一部激荡人心的奋进诗篇。此间星霜，既见群峰竞秀，亦显大江奔流。 本期是"寻访金长江之十年十人"第二期。券商中国记者走进百亿量化私募茂源量化，茂源量化创始人郭学文接受了记者的专访。 他14岁考入清华，博士后从事气候变化大模型研究，还曾先后创立两家科技企业，均被上市公司收购，其个人经历相当丰富和传奇。2013年，郭学文创办茂源量 化，编写了国内最早的高频交易策略，2018年发行第一只股票产品，2020年启动资管业务，2021年突破百亿规模。 在茂源量化的办公室，挂着一幅"量化投资之父"詹姆斯·西蒙斯与丘成桐教授讨论数学问题的手稿，时间是2020年9月14日。郭学文告诉记者，这份手稿是由丘成桐 教授赠送，当时已经82岁高龄的西蒙斯，在听丘先生讲座时与其讨论数学问题，依然认真地手写下了密密麻麻的问题，这种 ...

文 ｜ 闻天 王亦琛 唐栋国 赵文荣 何旺岚 郭佳昕 张子辰 2 0 2 5年一季度公募"固收+"基金规模回升至1 . 6 1万亿元。从发行情况来看，"固收+"基金平均募集 规模亦有回暖，其中混合债券型二级基金平均募集规模由1 5 . 2 2亿元上升至2 0 . 6 4亿元。配置方 面，"固收+"基金股票仓位无明显变化，转债仓位稍有下降，二级债基与偏债混合型基金均大幅加 仓有色行业。公募固收与混合类FOF开始转向发挥FOF投资的优势，利用商品基金、QDII基金、 长久期债券ETF等工具构建多资产配置策略。 ▍ 行业格局及发展：公募固收产品总规模小幅回落，"固收+"基金规模回升。 一季度公募固收类基金管理规模与管理份额分别为1 0 . 3 7万亿元和9 . 2 7万亿份，相较2 0 2 4年末规 模小幅回落。其中，主动纯债型基金总规模约为7 . 5 2万亿元，相较2 0 2 4年末减少5 5 6 0亿元，环 比下滑6 . 8 8%。"固收+"基金管理总规模为1 . 6 1万亿元，相较2 0 2 4年末增加1 5 1 4亿元。从细分品 类上看，混合债券型二级基金、混合债券型一级基金（固收+）和可转换债券型基金规模 ...