Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]

港股8月开局不利，三大指数继续承压走低，尾盘跌幅有所扩大。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.07%或265.52 点，报24507.81点，大市交投缩减，全日成交额为2546.74亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.88%，报8804.42 点；恒生科技指数跌1.02%，报5397.4点。全周来看，恒指累跌3.47%，国指累跌3.78%，恒科指累跌 4.94%。 东吴证券指出，往后看，市场担心海外风险上行。一是，美元资产继续上涨，或会导致全球资金减少对 中国资产的关注；二是，对等关税截止日临近，市场预期关税博弈更偏向税率"缓"+"降"。交银国际认 为，港股市场当前流动性状态仍较为充裕，估值水平保持合理，适度的市场拥挤度也为投资者提供了较 为理想的配置窗口。 蓝筹股表现 5.71港元。 1.个别快递股逆市走高。截至收盘，中通快递-W(02057)涨7.44%，报163.2港元；极兔速递-W(01519)涨 2.52%，报10.58港元。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快 件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日义乌邮管局 已率先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price decline, which may lead to a more stable competitive environment. The focus on leading e-commerce express companies is expected to enhance their market share and catalyze valuation recovery opportunities, while the timing for cyclical bottoming in express delivery services is also favorable [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year, with a total of 16.87 billion packages expected to be delivered by the end of the month. The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, driven by e-commerce promotions and convenient return policies [1][2]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 8% for the entire year of 2025, surpassing the predictions made by the postal administration [1]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [1][2]. - The single-package revenue for the four major companies in June 2025 showed declines: SF Express -13.3%, YTO Express -6.7%, Yunda Express -4.5%, and Shentong Express -1.0%. In Q2 2025, the declines were -13.7%, -6.3%, -5.4%, and -2.5% respectively [3]. Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 index reaching 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [2]. Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while the single-package revenue decreased by 5.8%. In Q2 2025, the revenue growth was 9.3%, with a single-package revenue decline of 6.8%. The narrowing of the price decline indicates a potential easing of price competition [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in express delivery prices has narrowed, indicating a potential for healthier competition in the industry. The focus is on leading e-commerce express companies, which are expected to see an increase in market share and valuation recovery opportunities [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The revenue for the same month was 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. The average revenue per piece was 7.49 yuan, down 5.9% [5][8]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [5][30][31]. Market Concentration - The market concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery industry was 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were: SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [5][27][31]. Price Trends - The report notes that the decline in express delivery prices has slowed down, with the industry experiencing a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in June 2025, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 5.8% [5][8]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthier competition, with leading companies expected to gain market share. The regulatory environment is anticipated to support this trend, ensuring a controlled level of price competition [41][52]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading e-commerce express companies for potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly highlighting SF Express as a key investment target [55][56].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is currently facing pressure from price wars, with no room for further reductions in delivery fees. Companies are implementing cost-cutting measures at their network points to cope with this pressure [1][4] - Regulatory requirements are pushing brands to address network exit issues to ensure stability, with common strategies including short-term subsidies or larger networks absorbing smaller ones [1][5] - The focus for the future will be on improving end-service quality and controlling costs, with technologies like autonomous vehicles being utilized to reduce expenses [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent excessive competition that could lead to performance downgrades. It is expected that there will be no large-scale price cuts in Q3 2025, although significant price increases are also unlikely [1][7] - Capital expenditure in the express delivery industry is projected to increase in 2025, but growth rates are expected to slow to around 15%. Some brands are underperforming and facing cost pressures, necessitating measures to ensure volume growth [1][8] - Management challenges include ensuring consistent pricing control from headquarters, the impact of automation on capacity utilization, and the complexities introduced by franchise pricing strategies [1][9] Regional Pricing Trends - Recent price increases have been noted in various regions, such as a 0.1 yuan increase in the base price in Yiwu, with similar adjustments expected in Guangdong starting in August [1][10][11] - The self-initiated price hikes by franchisees indicate a response to the need for recovery before peak seasons, with headquarters not capitalizing on these increases [1][12] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading companies like YTO and ZTO, which have low valuations, increasing growth rates, and strong market shares. These companies are seen as having robust risk resistance and potential for commercial growth [2][14] - J&T Express has exceeded expectations in its international business, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a growth rate of 66% in Q2, leading to an upward adjustment of its target price to 15 yuan [2][15] Future Outlook - The overall performance trend for the e-commerce express delivery industry in 2025 can be assessed based on the first half's performance, with leading companies like Zhongtong showing strong fundamentals and low valuations [1][13] - The future of the e-commerce express delivery industry appears promising, with expectations for continued high growth in international markets and potential positive impacts from the anti-involution policy in the domestic market [1][18]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with an expected business volume growth rate of around 15% for the foreseeable future [1] - The current competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time, with anti-involution policies favoring mid-to-late stage companies, leading to a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on the efficiency improvements in e-commerce express delivery, as factors like autonomous vehicles may enhance the competitive advantage of mid-to-late stage companies [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry's price competition has gone through four phases: 1) moderate price competition (2016-2019), 2) intense price wars (2019-2021), 3) stabilization phase (2021-2022), and 4) a return to competition since 2023 [2] - Historical anti-involution policies have included multiple measures from April to September 2021 aimed at curbing vicious price wars, leading to a price rebound starting in September 2021 [2] - The current industry fundamentals align with anti-involution demands, with clear low-price support, but the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase similar to 2021 is low due to ongoing competition [3] Group 3 - If a price increase occurs, e-commerce express delivery companies could see significant profit elasticity, with past data showing substantial profit rebounds following price hikes [4] - Profit margins for major companies post-price increase in 2022 showed significant year-on-year improvements, with ZTO Express up by 26% and YTO Express up by 105% [4] - Under hypothetical price increases of 3-10%, the profit elasticity for various companies ranges significantly, indicating that mid-to-late stage companies may experience more pronounced profit elasticity due to lower profit baselines [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is projected to reach a business volume of 204 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6%. The growth rate for the first half of the year was 19.3%, while the second half is expected to be around 14% [1][5] - The average price decline for the year is anticipated to be -6.9%, indicating a slowdown in price competition due to the application of unmanned technologies that reduce costs [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The State Post Bureau has emphasized anti-involution policies to alleviate low-price competition during the summer off-peak season, similar to measures taken in 2021 [1][6] - E-commerce platforms are undermining express companies' data control capabilities through data privacy measures, which restrict their commercial development and service quality improvements [1][10] - The rise of instant retail may harm seller interests, prompting the State Administration for Market Regulation to address related platforms [1][11] - The changing global manufacturing landscape is impacting international express companies, with Chinese logistics firms expected to dominate the global market by 2035, with five out of the top ten express logistics companies projected to be from China [1][17][18] Regional Competition and Market Dynamics - There is a notable regional price competition phenomenon, particularly in Hebei and Henan, where aggressive pricing strategies are observed [1][7] - The express delivery market in Zhejiang is experiencing a decline in its national share, indicating a shift in business dynamics due to high labor and rental costs [1][12][15] Company-Specific Insights - J&T Express is recognized for its innovative internet-based approach, rapidly expanding market share through a unique shareholding model that combines direct sales and franchising [1][4][22] - SF Express reported a business volume growth of 25.7% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry average by 6.4 percentage points, attributed to operational model innovations [1][32][33] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to generate revenues of 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with potential growth to four to five trillion yuan in the future [1][29] - The anticipated growth in cross-border e-commerce and customized logistics services is expected to significantly contribute to the industry's expansion [1][29][30] Additional Important Insights - The impact of leadership changes in postal companies can significantly affect performance, with new leadership often driving positive results [1][35] - The performance evaluation systems differ between postal and private enterprises, with private companies focusing on profit maximization [1][36] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the express delivery industry, highlighting growth projections, competitive dynamics, and the implications of regulatory policies.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in the first half of 2025, with a total business volume of 956.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The total revenue reached 7187.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing volume of small packages, reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets. The growth rate of express delivery volume significantly outpaces the growth of retail sales and online retail sales [6]. - Price competition in the industry is intensifying due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars. However, the report suggests that the intensity of price competition may be controllable due to policy guidance aimed at promoting high-quality development [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In June 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with revenue of 1263.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and 9.0%, respectively [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the express delivery revenue was 7187.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the business volume was 956.4 billion pieces, growing by 19.3% [3][5]. Company Performance - In June 2025, SF Express reported a revenue of 199.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The business volume was 14.60 billion pieces, growing by 31.8% year-on-year [4]. - For the first half of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 1091.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a business volume of 78.13 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 25.7% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [7].