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思摩尔国际(06969):砥砺前行,长期主义铸造价值成长
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-12 14:01
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has recently achieved a Class II medical device certification for its skincare brand MOYAL, with expectations of generating a revenue of 150 million yuan in 2025 and surpassing 1 billion yuan in revenue within three years [1] - The shift towards new tobacco products is compelling leading companies to accelerate their transformation, with a projected 8.4% decline in traditional cigarette sales in the U.S. in 2024 [2] - The U.S. is expected to become a core market for heated non-combustible tobacco (HNB) products, with an estimated annual consumption of 800-900 billion pods by 2030 [3] - The company is positioned as a key supplier in the compliant market, with expectations of revenue recovery in its disposable products despite regulatory pressures [4] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 1.342 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.551 billion yuan by 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49.8X and 30.5X respectively [5] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company launched a new factory for MOYAL's medical device production, aiming for significant revenue growth in the coming years [1] Market Trends - The new tobacco landscape is reshaping consumer habits, leading to a decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increased focus on HNB product development [2][3] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue and profitability, with projected net profits showing a significant increase from 1.342 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.551 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Operational Insights - The company is adapting to regulatory changes and market demands, positioning itself as a core supplier in the compliant market while navigating challenges in disposable product revenues [4]