Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market experienced a significant structural price adjustment in the first four months of 2025, with a total retail of 6.872 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The average price of passenger cars in 2025 was 170,000 yuan, a decrease of 7000 yuan compared to 2024, with April 2025 showing a decline of 21,000 yuan year-on-year, marking the largest drop in nearly five years [1] Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the increase in entry-level model sales due to government subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, leading to a shift in consumer preference towards mid-to-low-priced vehicles [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the market below 50,000 yuan reached 90% in April 2025, with pure electric models accounting for 86% of this segment [2] - In the high-end market (above 300,000 yuan), NEVs accounted for approximately 40%, with range-extended models being more prevalent than pure electric and hybrid models [2] Brand Performance - In the first four months of 2025, luxury brands maintained an average price of 366,000 yuan, while joint venture brands saw a slight increase to 174,000 yuan [3] - New force brands experienced a significant price drop of 36,000 yuan to 235,000 yuan, and domestic brands slightly decreased to 121,000 yuan [3] - Notably, the average price of NEVs across luxury, joint venture, and domestic brands surpassed that of their fuel counterparts, indicating a strong market position for NEV products [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

【华泰证券：看好二季度乘用车板块维持高景气】 2025年一季度以旧换新政策快速衔接，刺激终端需求同比向好，乘用车板块营收/归母净利润分别同比 +8%/+19%。 板块内表现分化：1) 新能源渗透率提升，规模效应增强下自主品牌盈利能力同比改善；2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收效有限，销 量同比继续下滑；3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用率同比大幅下降。 展望后市，看好二季度各省市促消费政策和自主品牌智能化新车协同发力下，乘用车板块维持高景气，业绩水平 进一步向好。 【华泰证券：看好二季度乘用车板块维持高景气】 2025年一季度以旧换新政策快速衔接，刺激终端需求同比向好，乘用车板块营收/归母净利润分别同比 +8%/+19%。 板块内表现分化：1) 新能源渗透率提升，规模效应增强下自主品牌盈利能力同比改善；2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收效有限，销 量同比继续下滑；3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用率同比大幅下降。 展望后市，看好二季度各省市促消费 ...