1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production reduction has alleviated supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish; inventory remains flat; with the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3486 - 3528 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. The refinery's production reduction alleviates supply pressure, but overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory remains flat, and the cost support strengthens in the short term [8][10]. - **Basis**: On August 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1270000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; factory inventory was 674000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. Neutral [11]. - **Futures Price Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20. Neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report presents the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import - Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [86][90]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][99]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] - **Expected trend**: The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,874 - 4,940. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 79.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,717.05 yuan/ton, with profits decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates and profit margins of downstream industries [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, PVC market price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [15][16] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [19] 3.6 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [21][22] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the historical data of lanthanum coke prices, costs, profits, operating rates, inventory, and daily production [24][25] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - The report shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, costs, profits, operating rates, maintenance losses, and production [27][28] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - The report shows the historical data of liquid chlorine and raw salt prices, production, and monthly production [30][31] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - The report shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, costs, profits, operating rates, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, and inventory [32][33][34] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC production capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of sample enterprises [36][37][38] 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries [40][41][42] 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.14 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, and price spreads [56][57] 3.15 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For焦煤**: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down recently. After previous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not significant, and most quotations remain stable. However, as the coke price increase has not been implemented, market sentiment is turning cautious, and procurement is slow. The overall market procurement sentiment is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - **For焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views** - **焦煤** - **Fundamentals**: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down. After previous inventory reduction, inventory pressure is not significant, but the coke price increase has not been implemented, so market sentiment is cautious, and procurement is slow, with some coal prices still having room to fall; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, and the basis is - 19, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. Although coke production per ton remains profitable, some coke enterprises have started to limit production, steel mill overhauls have increased significantly, iron - water production has decreased, and market procurement sentiment is cautious. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - **焦炭** - **Fundamentals**: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance; bullish [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 13, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Some coke enterprises are restricted by environmental protection production restrictions, and production is still disrupted, with low in - factory inventory. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. **Price** - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on August 29th (17:30), including prices at different ports for various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **Average Coke Profit per Ton**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 2、基差: 08月27日，山东现货价3520元/吨，10合约基差为49元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为129.2万吨，环比减少3.79%，厂内库存为71.6万吨，环比增加0.70%，港口稀释 沥青库存为库存为15万吨，环比减少21.05%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口 偏多。 库存持续去库。 3 4、盘面: MA20向下，10合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多减。 偏多。 6、预期: 炼厂近期排产有所减产，降低供应压力。旺季刺激需求恢复整体需求不及预期且低迷；库存 持续去库；原油走弱，成本支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [9][14] - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On August 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [11] - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene factory warehouse was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, which is neutral. [11] - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish. [11] - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. The supply pressure decreased this week. The downstream overall operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. The fundamentals are neutral. [5][7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2737.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, basis, inventory, production, profit, and other aspects, including price changes of different regions and varieties, month - to - month changes in inventory, and profit changes in different production methods. [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract. [18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Presents the historical trend chart of the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025. [24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Displays the historical data of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the historical data of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the historical data of liquid chlorine price, output, raw salt price, and monthly output. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the historical data of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises, as well as data on caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory. [35] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of sample enterprises. [40] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). Also includes data on paste resin cost - profit, output, and consumption, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [45] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [58] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the historical data of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread. [60] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import. [63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, leading to many coal mine shutdowns in major production areas such as Shanxi, resulting in a tight supply. Coke enterprises have carried out the eighth round of price increases, but the spot trading of coking coal is average. After downstream enterprises' phased replenishment, their procurement of raw materials is cautious. Considering the tight supply and low coal mine inventory, coal enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: As the military parade approaches, coke enterprises in Henan and Shandong have implemented production restrictions, further tightening the supply. Although the current demand is still supported, the continuous accumulation of finished products and the weakening of steel prices have put pressure on steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between coke and steel enterprises. It is expected that the coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **焦煤**: On August 27 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by variety and port. For example, the price of main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port was 1300, and the price of 1/3 coking coal GI at Caofeidian Port was 1035 with a rise of 115 [11]. Inventory - **港口库存**: The port inventory of coking coal was 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke was 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. Other Indicators - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide was 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 25 yuan [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate below historical average levels, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above historical average levels but still showing a decline [8]. - The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, while that of ethylene method is weakening, with the overall cost strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4962 - 5036 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negatives include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,753.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The main position is net short with an increase in shorts. The basis on August 26th showed that the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, with calcium carbide method factory inventory decreasing by 6.10% and ethylene method factory inventory decreasing by 7.05%. Social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 5.55% month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and production of different types of PVC (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as various cost and profit indicators [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trend of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of Lancoke from 2022 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It provides the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of caustic soda, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry from 2019 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC from 2018 to 2025 [37][38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates (profile, pipe, film, paste resin) of PVC, as well as the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads (ethylene method FOB spread, vinyl chloride import spread) from 2018 to 2025 [57][58]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be strong. Although the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strongly supported by the high level of steel mill hot metal and the increased production enthusiasm of coking enterprises after seven rounds of coke price increases [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The supply - demand pattern of the coke market remains tight as steel mill arrivals are delayed and environmental protection restrictions continue to suppress coking enterprise operations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - The supply from mines is frequently disturbed, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited. The online auction results of coking coal vary, with some coal types failing to be sold, and the prices of traded coal types fluctuate slightly. Mines have strong price - holding intentions due to low inventory and the background of continued coke price increases [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 29.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, including 805.8 million tons in steel mills, 255.5 million tons in ports, and 829.4 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. Position Analysis - The main coking coal contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Bearish factors: slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - After the seventh price increase, the profits of coking enterprises have been significantly repaired, and production enthusiasm is high. However, due to recent parade environmental protection policies, many coking enterprises have implemented production restrictions, and the start - up rate has declined. There is no inventory pressure under downstream demand support [5]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1640, and the basis is - 41, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coke is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, including 609.8 million tons in steel mills, 215.1 million tons in ports, and 39.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. Position Analysis - The main coke contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [5]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [8]. - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising and some falling [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are to be cautious about the pressure at the MA10 line, with short - term and intraday being weakly volatile and mid - term being volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the short term, under the dominance of negative factors, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the mid - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the poor fundamentals putting pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has shrunk, but the sustainability of profit per ton is questionable. Demand is weak, and high - frequency indicators are at a low level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season are still poor, but the cost increase restricts the downward space. In the short term, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply side, in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased. Next week, the supply pressure may decrease [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The construction of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries shows different trends, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit is negative, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The basis shows that on August 25, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the October contract was 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory decreased [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The main positions are net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month, and this week's production - related indicators such as capacity utilization rate and output decreased, while the maintenance volume increased [8]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit is negative, and the delayed coking profit decreased. Crude oil weakening weakens the cost support [9]. - Basis: The spot is at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Main Positions: Net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating between 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - This part provides data on the price, inventory, and other indicators of different asphalt contracts, including changes in prices, inventory quantities, and their corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22]. - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Volume Trends**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption volume from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of downstream demand indicators such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [87][90]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate, asphalt capacity utilization rate by use, and downstream capacity utilization rate (including various types of modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane) from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2025, including data on downstream demand, inventory, import, export, and production volume [106].