Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Government reported on the execution of the 2025 economic and social development plan, highlighting significant employment and income growth in the first half of the year [1] Economic Performance - A total of 331,000 new jobs were created in Shanghai during the first half of the year, achieving 55.1% of the annual target [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate was recorded at 4.2% [1] Income Growth - Residents' disposable income reached 46,805 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - Urban and rural residents' per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% and 5.8%, respectively [1] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shanghai saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for certain Japanese consumer companies, particularly Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group, due to their optimistic profit growth prospects [5]. Core Insights - High temperatures in June boosted sales of beverages and summer clothing, while duty-free consumption saw a significant decline [2][13]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 34.5 in June, the highest in four months, indicating improved consumer sentiment [7]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across different sectors, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending faced challenges [4][26]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index increased to 34.5 in June, up from 32.8 in May, with all sub-indices showing improvement [7]. - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.7% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflation [9]. - The producer price index (PPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting easing cost pressures for producers [11]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH, 7-Eleven, and Aeon reporting increases of 4.5%, 2.0%, and 2.1% respectively [3][15]. - Beverage sales turned positive due to high temperatures, with Suntory and Asahi reporting year-on-year sales growth of 1% and 9% respectively [18]. - The overall beer industry faced challenges, with Asahi's domestic revenue declining by 1% and Kirin's by 2% [20]. Discretionary Consumption - Clothing sales remained robust, with Workman and Uniqlo reporting same-store sales growth of 15.0% and 6.4% respectively [28]. - Restaurant same-store sales growth slowed, with major brands like Food&Life and McDonald's showing increases of 14.5% and 3.6% respectively [26]. - Department store sales continued to decline, with a 7.8% year-on-year drop in June, primarily due to a 40.6% decrease in duty-free sales [34]. Stock Market Performance - In June, the retail sector index rose by 3.7%, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.7% [42]. - The report notes significant inflows into retail and food and beverage ETFs, indicating investor interest in these sectors [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 has shown a new trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high [1] - In June, 14 provinces experienced a year-on-year increase in CPI, while 10 provinces saw a decline, indicating a shift in regional price trends [1] - The analysis by Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng highlights three main driving forces for the CPI's positive change: seasonal rise in vegetable prices, an increase in domestic energy prices due to international oil price fluctuations, and the support from the "old-for-new" policy [2] Group 2 - Future CPI trends are expected to show a low and moderate recovery, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand policies [4] - Factors contributing to price stability include ongoing economic expansion, effective policies to boost consumption, and regulatory actions to curb disorderly price competition in various industries [5] - The holiday effect is anticipated to further stabilize or increase service-related prices, with several upcoming holidays expected to have a noticeable impact [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - Singapore's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in June, slightly below the forecast of 0.9% [1] - The core CPI for June rose by 0.6% year-on-year, also below the expected increase of 0.7% [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery [3] - Looking ahead, while service prices have room for recovery, the momentum may slow down due to various factors including high base effects and early release of durable goods demand [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Components - Service prices have shown a continuous recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, and a cumulative growth rate of 0.4% from January to June [6] - The rental price decline has narrowed, positively impacting the core CPI, as rental demand is closely related to employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates [6][7] - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost service prices, but the pressure on the rental market may increase due to the high number of graduates entering the job market [7] Group 3: Global Economic and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the uncertainty in the Middle East and its potential impact on global supply chains, emphasizing the need for diversification in import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports [14][15] - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East could lead to significant supply risks, particularly for energy and chemical products, affecting downstream manufacturing sectors in China [15][17] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - The AI sector in the U.S. has seen a significant upward trend, with the AI industry rising by 80.19% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the Nasdaq index, which increased by 38.47% in the same period [25] - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low pricing strategies, which is expected to lead to increased user adoption and long-term profitability [26] - The report suggests that the development of AI applications will have transformative effects across various industries, with a notable acceleration in B-end commercialization in the media sector [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Income Analysis - The per capita disposable income in Sichuan reached 18,779 yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a nominal increase of 5.6% year-on-year and a real increase of 5.8% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - The main sources of income, including wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income, all maintained growth, with nominal increases of 6.4%, 5.3%, and 5.8% respectively [3][4] - Wage income remains the primary support for income growth, accounting for 52.2% of per capita disposable income and contributing 58.5% to the increase [3] Consumption Analysis - Per capita consumption expenditure in Sichuan was 12,208 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a nominal growth of 6.2% and a real growth of 6.4% after price adjustments [4] - Rural residents experienced faster consumption growth compared to urban residents, and service consumption remained active, with all eight categories of consumption showing growth [4] - Per capita service consumption expenditure reached 5,295 yuan, growing by 6.8%, and service consumption accounted for 43.4% of total consumption expenditure [4] Price Trends - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, consistent with national trends, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% [5] - Positive changes in CPI were noted in June, indicating a potential improvement in the weak CPI trend, with the core CPI rising by 0.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in pork prices was attributed to increased supply and seasonal demand fluctuations post-Chinese New Year [5]