证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业Table投资策略 _ReportType] 电电力行业 [Table_Author] 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存 [Table_Industry] ——2026 电力行业年度策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 05 日 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 05 日 本期内容提要: 展望未来， ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing a significant surge in demand, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of declining prices for storage systems. This shift is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic and international factors contributing to the increased demand for energy storage solutions [1][2][3]. Demand Side Summary - The domestic market has set a target of over 180 million kilowatts for energy storage installations through the "New Type Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)," providing a strong impetus for market growth [1]. - Various provinces are introducing or planning capacity price compensation mechanisms, and the ongoing market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices is clarifying the revenue models for energy storage [1]. - The application of large battery cell technology has improved the economic viability of energy storage systems, leading to increased investment willingness from companies [1]. - Internationally, Europe is facing urgent demand for energy storage to stabilize electricity prices and ensure grid reliability, while emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific are rapidly developing, creating a synchronized demand scenario [1]. Supply Side Summary - The supply side is currently unable to keep pace with the surging demand due to the long production cycles of upstream materials such as anode and cathode materials and electrolytes, which cannot be rapidly expanded in the short term [2]. - Different application scenarios have varying requirements for battery cell energy density and cycle life, leading to a shortage of specialized production capacity and exacerbating the battery supply shortage [2]. Long-term Industry Trends - The current enthusiasm for energy storage is a natural outcome of the development stage of the renewable energy industry, as energy storage helps to stabilize the grid and mitigate issues related to the intermittent nature of wind and solar power [2][3]. - Energy storage has transitioned from being an optional strategy for power generation companies to a necessary component, enabling them to meet grid connection requirements and reduce losses from curtailment while expanding revenue channels through market participation [2]. - The strategic value of energy storage is becoming increasingly recognized, as it plays a crucial role in ensuring grid safety, promoting renewable energy consumption, and enhancing energy efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The current "one cell is hard to find" situation may ease as supply and demand balance out, but the long-term development of the energy storage industry is just beginning [4]. - Companies should focus on technological innovation and sustainable business models rather than solely on short-term capacity expansion and price benefits [4]. - The energy storage industry's growth is vital for advancing energy transition goals and ensuring national energy security, with the market's current heat reflecting a re-evaluation of the value of energy storage [4].

Core Viewpoint - The electricity sector has shown strong performance recently, driven by dual attributes of dividends and computing power, with a notable surge in stock prices due to new policies and market dynamics [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The electricity sector experienced a significant rally, with stocks like Huitian Thermal Power and Minzhong Energy hitting their daily limit up [2][3]. - The overall market was weak, but Huitian Thermal Power stood out as the strongest performer, closing at its limit up price [3]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The release of the 136 document by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a shift towards market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, impacting the electricity trading landscape [6]. - Various provinces are implementing policies for excess profit sharing among electricity retailers, indicating a trend towards stabilizing electricity prices and reducing risks for electricity companies [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The electricity generation volume in October increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with thermal power outperforming other energy sources [5]. - The coal price at the Jing Tang Port has decreased to 823 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.0% week-on-week decline, which may improve profitability for thermal power [5]. - The integration of electricity and energy storage is expected to drive up valuations in the sector, with strategic partnerships being formed to enhance market opportunities [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The electricity sector is anticipated to benefit from improved demand in the winter and better long-term pricing expectations, with signs of recovery in industry profitability [7]. - The policies supporting large-scale development and high-quality consumption of renewable energy are expected to stabilize price expectations in the electricity market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The electricity sector has shown strong performance recently, driven by dual attributes of dividends and computing power, with a notable surge in stock prices due to new policies and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The electricity sector experienced a significant rally, with stocks like Huitian Thermal Power and Minjiang Energy hitting their daily limit up [1][2]. - The electricity ETF rose over 0.7% in early trading, indicating strong investor interest despite a generally weak market [1][2]. - Huitian Thermal Power was highlighted as the strongest stock in a weak market, closing at its limit up price [2]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The recent implementation of the 136 document, which promotes market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, is expected to enhance the profitability of electricity companies [5][6]. - Various regions are introducing policies for profit-sharing among electricity retailers, with notable differences in implementation across provinces [5][6]. - The new policies aim to stabilize electricity pricing expectations and reduce risks for electricity retailers, promoting a more balanced pricing mechanism [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Projections - Industrial electricity generation in October saw a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with thermal power outperforming other energy sources [4]. - The integration of electricity and energy storage is anticipated to drive up electricity valuations, with significant growth in commercial energy storage projects [4]. - The electricity sector is expected to benefit from improved long-term pricing expectations and increased demand during the winter season, leading to a recovery in industry profitability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The energy development direction in China is shifting towards clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient systems, with a significant transformation in the power supply structure from fossil fuels to non-fossil energy sources [1][27]. Group 1: Current Status of Hydropower Development - Hydropower plays a crucial role in China's energy structure, with an expected generation of 1,274.25 billion kWh in 2024, accounting for 13.53% of total power generation [2]. - From January to October 2025, hydropower generation reached 1,131.12 billion kWh, slightly increasing its share to 14.03% [2]. - As of October 2025, the total installed capacity of hydropower is 440 million kW, representing 11.83% of the total power generation capacity in China [4]. Group 2: Installed Capacity and Growth Trends - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3,752 million kW by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.45% [4]. - Hydropower's installed capacity growth has slowed, primarily due to the saturation of high-quality hydropower resources and the longer construction cycles compared to wind and solar power [6]. - As of October 2025, conventional hydropower installed capacity is 380 million kW, with a 70.11% development rate of technically exploitable capacity [8]. Group 3: Economic Advantages of Hydropower - Hydropower is recognized for its flexibility and reliability, with a rapid startup time of 1-2 minutes from a standby state to full load [9]. - The average cost of hydropower generation is between 0.1 to 0.3 yuan per kWh, which is competitive compared to other energy sources [16]. - The average on-grid price for hydropower is transitioning from planned pricing to market-based pricing, currently at 0.3 yuan per kWh, which is lower than coal power [16][22]. Group 4: Future Projections and Policy Directions - By 2030, the total installed capacity of conventional hydropower is projected to reach 420 million kW, with an average annual growth rate of 2.02% from 2025 to 2030 [23]. - The demand for flexible adjustment resources in the power system will increase as the share of renewable energy rises, positioning hydropower as a stabilizing force in the energy mix [27]. - The development of pumped storage hydropower is expected to double by 2030, reaching 120 million kW, further enhancing the role of hydropower in energy regulation [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 17.3% year-on-year as of October 2025, reaching 3.75 billion kilowatts [5] - The report highlights a significant increase in solar power generation capacity, which grew by 43.8% year-on-year, while wind power capacity increased by 21.4% [5] - The report indicates that the electricity market is expected to see a gradual increase in prices due to ongoing market reforms and supply-demand dynamics [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 28, the utility sector rose by 0.9%, underperforming the broader market, which increased by 1.6% [12] - The electricity sector specifically saw a 0.65% increase, while the gas sector rose by 3.27% [16] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) decreased by 9 CNY/ton week-on-week, settling at 818 CNY/ton [22] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 400,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 6 million tons [29] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces rose by 30,000 tons/day week-on-week, reaching 3.541 million tons [31] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 4,312 CNY/ton as of November 28, down 3.88% year-on-year [56] - The U.S. HH spot price increased by 15.3% week-on-week, reaching 4.59 USD/MMBtu, while the European TTF price decreased by 5.6% [59] - The total natural gas supply in the EU for week 47 was 6.23 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [64] Key Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 260 hours year-on-year, totaling 2,619 hours [5] - The cumulative geological reserves of coalbed methane in China exceeded 700 billion cubic meters as of October 2025 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight electricity supply areas [5] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended, including Xin'ao and Guanghui Energy [5]

Core Insights - The recent electricity price adjustments in China are not merely price hikes or cuts but represent a significant overhaul of the entire electricity pricing system, impacting both industrial and residential users [1][10] Group 1: Price Discrepancies - As of January 2025, the peak-valley price difference has exceeded 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour in nine provinces, with Shanghai leading at a peak price difference of 1.81 yuan [3][6] - In Tianjin, the peak-valley price ratio has reached 4:1, with specific time slots designated as low-cost periods, significantly affecting operational costs for businesses [3][4] Group 2: Impact on Industrial Users - Industrial users who adapt their electricity usage to low-cost periods can see substantial savings, with one factory reducing its electricity bill by 30% by shifting energy-intensive processes to off-peak hours [4][7] - Companies are increasingly investing in energy storage systems to capitalize on price differences, turning electricity management into a profit-generating activity [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The shift towards market-based pricing is evident, with regions like Shandong implementing a five-tier pricing system that reflects real-time supply and demand [5][6] - The government aims to create a more flexible pricing structure that can respond to fluctuations in energy supply, particularly from renewable sources [8][11] Group 4: Recommendations for Users - Users are advised to understand local pricing policies and adjust their electricity usage accordingly to maximize savings [9][10] - The potential for residential users to benefit from time-of-use pricing, especially those with electric vehicle charging stations, is significant [6][9] Group 5: Future Trends - The trend towards dynamic pricing and real-time adjustments is expected to become more common, requiring both businesses and residential users to adapt their consumption habits [11][12] - The overarching goal of these changes is to optimize energy consumption, support renewable energy integration, and contribute to national carbon neutrality goals [10][12]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, emphasizing a shift in investment logic from growth to quality, stability, and shareholder returns [4][5][6] - The electricity and public utilities index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 7.43% compared to 14.12% for the CSI 300, indicating a potential for catch-up in the sector [5][12] Industry Overview - In 2025, the market-oriented trading electricity price has declined, leading to a decrease in revenue growth for power generation companies. However, effective cost control has allowed for an increase in net profit [10][16] - The electricity and public utilities sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 18,748.53 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.07% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 6.07% to CNY 2,065.15 billion [10][12] - The profitability of hydropower remains the strongest in the sector, with hydropower's gross margin at approximately 59% and net margin at around 44% [17][19] Hydropower Sector - Large hydropower companies possess unique business models and long operational cycles, making them attractive for long-term investment. Companies like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower are highlighted as key players [4][47] - Hydropower generation is subject to seasonal fluctuations, but large hydropower enterprises can mitigate these through their reservoir capabilities, leading to more stable performance [51][53] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the top three hydropower companies by installed capacity are Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Guotou Power, collectively holding about 27.4% of the national installed capacity [60][62] Thermal Power Sector - The thermal power sector is expected to transition from a cyclical asset to a stable income asset, with improvements in coal price linkage mechanisms and auxiliary service revenues [6][47] - The gross margin for thermal power has increased by 2.51 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [19][17] Other Power Generation - The performance of other power generation sectors, including nuclear and renewable energy, is mixed, with nuclear power showing growth in generation but facing challenges from declining market prices [4][18] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing high growth in installed capacity but is also under pressure regarding profitability due to falling green electricity prices [4][18] Investment Rating and Focus - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, suggesting a focus on companies with stable fundamentals and reasonable valuations [5][6] - Key investment targets include companies with high dividend yields and strong operational performance, particularly in the hydropower segment [6][47]

Core Insights - The energy storage industry continues to experience high demand, with a significant increase in orders for energy storage cells, leading to a "one cell hard to find" situation in the market [1] - Major companies are reporting full production and sales, indicating a robust market environment, with production schedules extending into 2026 [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement," with a focus on technological upgrades and cost control [3] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The energy storage cell market is witnessing a surge in orders, with companies like Longjing Environmental reporting production schedules extending to June 2026 [1] - Companies such as Hunan Youneng and Guizhou Anda Technology are operating at full capacity, driven by strong demand for both power and energy storage batteries [2] - The demand for phosphate cathode materials is expected to remain strong, supported by both power and energy storage battery markets [2] Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting strategies such as lean production and technological cost reduction to maintain competitive advantages [3] - Long-term strategic partnerships are becoming crucial for stable supply chains, exemplified by a ten-year agreement between Haibo Sichuang and CATL [3] - The industry is predicted to shift from a focus on total volume to structural competition, favoring companies with technological advantages and global supply chain capabilities [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The energy storage industry must avoid falling into price competition, advocating for industry self-discipline and standard constraints [4] - Emphasis on product differentiation and enhancing the performance of energy storage systems is essential [4] - Accelerating international expansion and certification processes will be vital for participating in global competition [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant progress in China's electricity market reform over the past decade, highlighting the shift towards market-oriented trading and the increasing participation of private enterprises in the power generation sector [1][43]. Group 1: Market Reform Progress - In 2015, the new round of electricity reform began, with market-based trading volume initially below 1 trillion kWh, accounting for less than 10% of total electricity consumption [1][45]. - By October 2025, the monthly electricity market trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, representing 65.8% of total electricity consumption for that month [1][45]. - Regions like Guangdong and Shandong have market trading ratios approaching 70% and 65.2%, respectively, nearing levels seen in mature markets in Europe and the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Challenges in the Current System - The legacy of planned economy practices has led to price distortions, where electricity prices remain stable despite fluctuations in coal prices, resulting in significant losses for thermal power companies [4][10]. - High industrial electricity costs, which are more than double residential rates, have placed a burden on energy-intensive industries, with electricity costs accounting for up to 30% of production costs in sectors like steel and chemicals [12][13]. - The existing power system struggles to integrate renewable energy sources effectively, leading to high curtailment rates, such as 8.6% for solar power in Qinghai and 22% in Tibet in 2023 [18][21]. Group 3: Stages of Reform - The reform process can be divided into four stages: 1. Top-level design (2015-2017) focused on regulating the transmission network while opening up generation and sales [26][27]. 2. Pilot programs (2018-2020) tested market mechanisms in select provinces, leading to significant increases in registered electricity sales companies [30][34]. 3. Expansion to regional markets (2021-2023) saw the establishment of the first regional electricity market, allowing for cross-province electricity trading [37][40]. 4. Nationwide unified market (2024) aims to streamline regulations and enhance market efficiency, with a target of achieving a fully integrated national electricity market by 2029 [42][44]. Group 4: Initial Outcomes - By October 2025, market-based trading volume surged to 5.49 trillion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of total electricity consumption, a dramatic increase from less than 10% in 2015 [45]. - Cross-province trading volume reached 1.3261 trillion kWh, representing 24.1% of total trading volume, indicating improved inter-regional electricity flow [46][47]. - Despite the growth in market participation, competition remains limited, with a high concentration of market power among a few large companies, particularly in Guangdong, where market concentration is at 68.5% [51][52].