【导读】海关总署宣布， 有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品进口！回顾周末大事，汇总十大券 商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，马上又要开盘了！过去的一周交易日， 沪指涨1.91%，深成指涨3.73%，创 业板指涨5.69%。A股后市怎么走？一起回顾下周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研 判。 周末大事 海关总署：有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品进口 海关总署6月29日发布海关总署公告2025年第140号（关于有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品 进口的公告）： 在持续开展针对日本福岛核污染水排海的长期国际监测和中方独立取样监测且结果未见异 常，日本政府承诺保障输华水产品质量安全的前提下，根据我国食品安全法律法规和世界贸 易组织《实施卫生与植物卫生措施协定》有关原则，为维护消费者合法权益，中方决定有条 件恢复日本部分地区水产品（含食用水生动物，下同）进口。具体事项公告如下： 一、 即日起恢复部分原产地为日本的水产品进口， 福岛县、群马县、栃木县、茨城县、宫城 县、新潟县、长野县、埼玉县、东京都、千叶县等10个都县除外。 二、 日本输华水产品企业应当符合我国进口食品境外生产企业注册管理等相关规定。 已暂停 进口的水产 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-share market is expected to show a slight upward trend in July, with a focus on structural opportunities in sectors like AI and military industry for the third quarter [1][2][4] - Citic Securities emphasizes that structural opportunities will dominate the mid-year report season, with AI and military sectors being the key areas for investment in Q3 [1] - China Galaxy Securities identifies three main lines for investment: high-margin assets, technology as a long-term focus, and consumer sectors boosted by policy [2] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts a significant possibility for the index to break last year's high, with growth stocks expected to become the main focus [3] - The report highlights the importance of identifying growth opportunities in sectors such as AI computing power, cultural media, and military technology [3] - Xiangcai Securities suggests focusing on breakthrough opportunities in technology-related fields and sectors supported by fundamental performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of digitalization and electrification in driving technological advancements, highlighting their roles in reshaping industries and presenting new challenges for engineers [4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The upcoming seminar will focus on high-speed serial transmission and power and semiconductor testing solutions, aimed at helping engineers navigate the current technological landscape [4]. - The event is scheduled for June 20, 2025, from 10:00 AM to 3:15 PM at the Xiamen Baixiang Software Park Hotel [6]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes sessions on power integrity and Tek's comprehensive power testing solutions, as well as testing solutions for power management integrated circuits (PMIC) and wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductors [7]. - Other topics will cover high-speed signal design and measurement fundamentals, semiconductor physical parameter characterization, and popular high-speed bus testing solutions such as USB, Ethernet, and MIPI D-PHY [7]. Group 3: Engagement Opportunities - Attendees will have the chance to participate in a lottery for prizes during the event [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price cuts in the luxury car market, particularly focusing on BMW, and highlights the challenges faced by traditional luxury brands in the context of increasing competition from domestic manufacturers and changing consumer preferences [3][5][11]. Group 1: BMW's Price Cuts - BMW's recent price cuts have led to a dramatic drop in the value of its vehicles, with the BMW 5 Series seeing a price reduction of up to 180,000 yuan, causing distress among loyal customers [5][10]. - The company's first-quarter financial results for 2025 showed a total revenue of 33.758 billion euros, a year-on-year decline of 7.8%, and a net profit of 2.173 billion euros, down 26.4% [6]. - In China, BMW's sales dropped by 17.2% year-on-year, making it the only major market where sales declined, highlighting the brand's struggles in its largest single market [6][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury car market is experiencing intense price wars, with brands like BYD and Geely launching discounts on over 70 models within a week, forcing traditional luxury brands to respond [19]. - The decline in sales for luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi in China is attributed to the rise of domestic competitors and changing consumer preferences, with sales figures showing significant year-on-year drops [13][14]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and smart technology is challenging traditional luxury brands, which must adapt to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving market [14][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, traditional luxury brands like BMW, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz are investing heavily in partnerships and technology, with a total investment exceeding 35 billion euros in 2024, indicating a long-term strategy to regain market competitiveness [23]. - The article suggests that the ongoing price cuts and market dynamics may lead to a significant transformation in the luxury car segment, with the potential for new entrants to disrupt established players [19][23].

Company Strategy & Overview - Oshkosh's 2024 revenue reached $107 billion[65] - The company is focused on transforming into an industrial technology company, leveraging advanced technologies to extend market leadership[28, 30] - A key strategy is "Innovate Serve Advance," which involves developing safe solutions, supporting the installed base, and expanding into adjacent markets[56, 59, 62] Technology & Innovation - The company has a significant intellectual property portfolio with ~1,300 active patents, including 570+ electrification patents and applications[78] - Oshkosh is focused on electrification, autonomy and active safety, and intelligent products, powered by AI[73] - The company is targeting a vitality index increase from 13% in 2022 to 33% in 2028, driven by new product innovation[125] Segment Performance & Targets - Access segment sales target for 2028 is ~$53-58 billion with an adjusted operating margin of ~14-16%[183] - Transport segment sales target for 2028 is ~$23 billion with an adjusted operating margin of ~4%[245] - Vocational segment sales target for 2028 is ~$38 billion with an adjusted operating margin of ~16%[289]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs highlights that undervalued utility giants in Europe focusing on electricity supply and water resources will significantly benefit from the unprecedented global AI boom and the ongoing trend of electrification [1][4] - The report indicates that European electricity demand has faced a cumulative decline of approximately 10% since 2008 due to external shocks and a slower-than-expected electrification process, but is expected to increase by 40%-50% over the next decade [1][4] Company Analysis: Centrica - Centrica has identified a potential EBITDA of £1.6 billion by FY2028, with £400 million expected from its £4 billion investment plan, of which about 50% remains uncommitted [1][2] - The investment details regarding nuclear power are anticipated to be disclosed during a spending review on June 11, 2025, with a potential £2 billion equity investment offering approximately 6% upside to current share prices and a 3% increase in EPS by 2028 [2] - Centrica's core business encompasses retail gas and electricity, upstream oil and gas, flexible peaking plants, and storage, with a focus on green assets such as nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture [3] Industry Trends: AI and Electricity Demand - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to surge, with global data center electricity demand projected to double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, driven primarily by AI applications [4][5] - In the U.S., data centers' share of electricity consumption is forecasted to increase twofold from 126 TWh in 2022 to 390 TWh by 2030 [5] - The PJM Interconnection anticipates a summer peak electricity demand increase of nearly 58 GW (approximately 38%) by 2035, attributed to the growth in AI [6] Company Performance: Vistra Energy - Vistra Corp. is projected to be one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for 2024, with a remarkable increase of 256%, surpassing even Nvidia's 170% rise [6][7] - Vistra and Constellation Energy are experiencing significant growth due to their independent power producer status, allowing them to sell electricity at market prices [7] Water Resource Utilities: Pennon Group - Pennon Group reported a core EBITDA of £335.6 million for FY2025, with a net debt of £4.1 billion, slightly above market expectations [8][9] - The company benefits indirectly from the massive water demand of data centers, which require significant amounts of water for cooling and other operational needs [9]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that European utility giants, which are undervalued in the context of electricity supply and water resource networks, will significantly benefit from the unprecedented global AI boom and the ongoing trend of electrification [1] Group 1: Electricity Demand Trends - Over the past fifteen years, European electricity demand has faced severe external shocks, resulting in a cumulative decrease of approximately 10% since 2008 [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a complete reversal of this trend, projecting that the rapid expansion of data centers and the acceleration of electrification will drive European electricity demand to increase by at least 40%-50% over the next decade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent passing of the Trump tax reform in the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to significantly enhance the economic viability of long-term investments, particularly in data center construction, refinery capacity expansion, and the return of manufacturing across various industries [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Reform Implications - The tax reform includes a provision allowing companies to immediately deduct expenses for purchasing production equipment and domestic R&D, which is expected to boost long-term investment economics [2][6]. - UBS estimates that the tax savings could increase the internal rate of return (IRR) on long-term projects by 400 basis points, equating to approximately a 50% increase [2][7]. - The new tax incentives are anticipated to sustain or elevate the activity levels in non-residential construction, which reached a historical high of $1.3 trillion last year [7]. Group 2: Beneficiary Themes - UBS identifies "reshoring" and "electrification" as the most promising themes, highlighting potential beneficiaries in these sectors [3][6]. - Companies rated as "Buy" that may benefit from these themes include Eaton (ETN.US), Trane Technologies (TT.US), Steel Dynamics (STLD.US), Johnson Controls (JCI.US), and others [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The tax incentives are expected to lead to a capital expenditure wave, potentially amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, particularly benefiting sectors like data infrastructure, chemicals/refining, and industrial reshoring [7]. - The reform is seen as a continuation of existing investment incentives from the CHIPS Act, IRA, and IIA, further facilitating U.S. project advancements [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant revenue decline of over 30% from peak to trough, yet managed to maintain operating margins above 40% during this period, demonstrating resilience in its business model [21][23][27] - Gross margins were reported in the high sixties, with expectations to improve as the company moves into future years [13][16][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial business, which constituted 53% of overall business in 2023, saw a decline to 44%, impacting overall margins [23] - The consumer business has shown strong growth, increasing by 30% over three consecutive quarters, contributing to an expected $500 million in incremental revenue for 2025 [42][43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China revenue is approximately 20% of total revenue, with a noted recovery in demand across various end markets, particularly in automotive [74][78] - The company reported strong demand signals with book-to-bill ratios above one in nearly all geographies and end markets, indicating a positive outlook [81] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on high-value applications and has a hybrid manufacturing strategy that allows flexibility in production, which has been crucial during downturns [3][7][18] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation and maintaining a competitive edge through R&D investment, which is currently around 17% of revenue [100][102] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed increased confidence in achieving growth targets for 2025, driven by a recovery in industrial markets and strong performance in automotive and consumer sectors [47][51] - The company is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including potential demand disruptions due to tariffs, but has not yet seen significant impacts [68][70] Other Important Information - The company has diversified its manufacturing footprint globally, with significant operations in the US, Ireland, and Asia, which is critical for navigating geopolitical shifts [73][75] - The company is actively investing in AI capabilities, both for internal processes and product development, to enhance its competitive position [104] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the company's growth targets? - The company expects growth from stable pricing, revenue synergies from acquisitions, and participation in industry tailwinds such as automation and electrification [36][37][38] Question: How does the company view the competitive environment in China? - The company acknowledges the competitive pressures in China but believes its focus on high-performance products and system value provides a buffer against pricing pressures [82][84] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding manufacturing capacity in the US? - Currently, the company does not plan to build additional fab capacity in the near term, feeling confident in its existing manufacturing footprint [95][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - GE Vernova has a strong balance sheet with over $8 billion in cash and no debt, positioning the company well for growth [6] - The power business is expected to maintain EBITDA margins of 13-14% this year, with a floor of 16% by 2028, excluding new pricing trends [31][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gas business is experiencing strong demand, with a backlog of 50 gigawatts, expected to grow to at least 60 gigawatts by the end of the year [69] - The electrification segment is the fastest-growing business, projected to surpass wind in revenue size within the next year [22] - Wind business currently has the softest market, but operational improvements are being made to enhance service offerings [18][50] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for gas equipment is strong globally, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, with significant opportunities in countries like Saudi Arabia [24][64] - The European market is facing affordability challenges, impacting pricing dynamics in the grid business [44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - GE Vernova aims to leverage its unique position in the market, focusing on the electrification of the grid and the integration of various energy sources [5][20] - The company is committed to investing in R&D, with a 25% increase in the budget to support future growth [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about the growth potential in the electrification market and the role of gas and nuclear in the energy transition [12][54] - The geopolitical landscape is seen as an opportunity for GE Vernova to address trade imbalances and strengthen its market position [62] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on carbon capture technologies and low-carbon hydrogen solutions to support energy transition goals [57][59] - GE Vernova is focusing on improving operational efficiencies within its existing manufacturing footprint to meet growing demand without overextending capacity [29][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are GE Vernova and/or competitors requiring reservation fees for gas turbine orders? If so, how meaningful are the fees? - GE Vernova requires an average of 20% of the gas turbine contract price as a deposit for slot reservation agreements [56] Question: What are GE Vernova's key opportunities and innovations in carbon capture and low carbon hydrogen? - The company is investing in direct air capture technology and building a new gas plant in the UK with carbon capture capabilities [57][58] Question: How is GE Vernova dealing with tariff impacts? - The company is implementing cost reduction measures and negotiating contractual provisions to manage tariff risks effectively [37][40] Question: How does GE Vernova view its competitive positioning in HVDC within the grid? - The equipment backlog in the grid business has grown significantly, with a focus on HVDC projects in North America [60][61] Question: Following new deals in the GCC, is the region becoming more important for GE Vernova? - The Middle East is strategically important for data centers and chip manufacturing, with significant opportunities for GE Vernova [64][65]