每经记者 杨建 每经编辑 彭水萍 （一）重磅消息 1、据央视新闻5月4日报道，随着出入境便利度持续改善，跨境移动支付不断迭代，离境退税"即买即 退"全国推广，这个"五一"假期，中国入境旅游市场订单激增，入境游潜力持续释放。中国社会科学院 旅游研究中心特约研究员王笑宇认为，我们的入境旅游市场增长空间非常广阔，意大利、法国这些发达 国家和世界知名的旅游目的地国家，他们入境游的收入占整个GDP是2%左右，日本是1.3%左右，中国 的入境旅游收入占GDP是0.5%左右。根据摩根士丹利等国际研究机构预测，未来10年中国的入境旅游 的市场将增长4~8倍。 2、5月2日当天，境外离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率（CNH）从7.27一路回到7.21附近，这意味着离岸人 民币汇率单日涨幅超过600个基点。离岸人民币快速上涨，主要受到多方面因素影响，一是近日沃尔玛 等美国大型零售企业通知中国供应商恢复发货，外汇市场对中国外贸环境改善的预期明显提升，纷纷调 高人民币汇率估值；二是华尔街投资机构认为美联储年内仍将多次降息，纷纷提前买涨人民币、日元等 非美货币"对冲"美元贬值风险。第三，节假日期间离岸人民币外汇市场交易活跃度相对较低，部分海外 ...

Group 1 - Multiple popular stocks have been recommended by at least two brokerages, particularly those related to domestic consumption, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Kweichow Moutai [2] - Dongpeng Beverage is favored for its stable energy drink business and rapid growth in electrolyte drinks as the beverage season approaches [2] - Kweichow Moutai is highlighted for signs of improvement in the liquor industry and a reduction in channel leverage [2] Group 2 - The skincare and medical beauty sector is also seeing high interest, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving recommendations due to market trends favoring domestic brands and new product launches [2] - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism for a potential upward trend, suggesting that adjustments present good investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3 - The A-share market is currently valued near its average since 2010, with expectations of continued inflows of medium to long-term capital due to supportive policies [3] - Suggested asset allocation includes stable assets like high-dividend stocks and gold, as well as sectors focused on domestic consumption and technology [4] Group 4 - Analysts recommend focusing on three main lines in May: consumption, technology, and dividend stocks, with an emphasis on domestic technology and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [6] - The market is expected to experience a structural recovery, with cautious optimism regarding the potential for core sectors to attract renewed investment focus post-earnings reports [6][8] Group 5 - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth technology investments with stable dividend assets, reflecting the current market environment [9] - The focus on new technologies and industry themes, as well as the implementation of policies to boost domestic demand, is crucial for investment decisions in May [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technological self-sufficiency is a key investment theme, particularly in the context of ongoing US-China trade tensions, which are seen as a competition in the technology sector [1][3]. Industry Insights - The concept of self-sufficiency refers to the ability to independently research, design, and control core technologies across the entire lifecycle of information systems, from hardware to software [2]. - The Chinese government has highlighted the importance of building self-sufficient industrial and supply chains, particularly in sectors such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, medical equipment, and advanced materials [2]. Investment Opportunities - Various institutions believe that technological self-sufficiency has become a reliable investment direction, with a focus on domestic demand in technology, particularly in areas like domestic computing power [4][5]. - Securities firms such as Everbright Securities and Huafu Securities are optimistic about investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry, recommending attention to wafer manufacturing and AI computing power chips [6]. Market Growth Projections - The China Investment Industry Research Institute projects that the market size of self-sufficient industries will reach 1.47 trillion yuan by 2027, indicating significant market potential [7]. - A selection of 50 potential stocks in the self-sufficient technology sector was made based on three criteria: research and development intensity, gross profit margin, and the ratio of contract liabilities to revenue [7]. Stock Performance and Predictions - Among the 50 identified stocks, 14 have seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts post-annual report releases, with two stocks, Foxit Software and Rainbow Technology, experiencing over 50% increases in 2025 profit predictions [9]. - Foxit Software's net profit forecast for 2025 was raised by 152.78% to 91 million yuan, reflecting strong recent performance [10]. - Rainbow Technology's net profit forecast for 2025 was increased by 58.27% to 220 million yuan, driven by its focus on technological innovation [10][11]. Institutional Interest - Six stocks from the identified 50 have received net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan from institutional investors, with Chip Origin Technology and China Software being notable examples [12]. - Chip Origin Technology has a range of self-sufficient processor IPs applicable in various fields, while China Software is recognized as a leading state-owned enterprise in software, benefiting from its strategic position and brand recognition [12][13].

随着4月股市交易收官，各券商新一期的月度金股也陆续出炉。 回顾4月，券商金股展现出较强的超额收益能力，最牛金股4月大涨83%，由3家券商共同推荐。近四成券商的金股组合4月收益率为正，东北证券、华西证券收益率 超10%。 4月，A股三大指数月线集体收跌，其中创业板指跌逾7%。券商金股却整体表现出较强的超额收益能力，牛股频现。 每市APP显示，券商推荐的4月金股中表现最牛的是万辰集团，主营量贩零食业务，由信达证券、华西证券、东北证券三家券商共同推荐，在4月份大涨83%。涨幅 第二的是农药创新药龙头先达股份，4月大涨61%，由东北证券独家推荐。 涨幅第三的是长城证券推荐的科兴制药，4月上涨55%；排名第四的是华源证券推荐的民士达，4月上涨近55%。此外，4月涨幅较高的金股还包括锦波生物、盐津铺 子、上美股份，单月 均 涨超40%。 从各券商推荐的金股当月表现来看，每市APP收录的46家券商金股数据中，有17家在4月实现正收益，占比约37%。 每市APP显示，东北证券金股组合以13.28%的月收益率拔得头筹，东北证券在4月推中数只大牛股，例如推荐的万辰集团、先达股份4月分别大涨83%、61%。 华西证券则以10.57 ...

Group 1 - The equity market experienced a "V-shaped" trend in April, with financial and consumer sectors showing resilience while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors faced significant declines of 6.38% and 5.76% respectively [11][15] - The convertible bond market demonstrated relative strength, with small-cap convertible bonds only declining by 0.39%, while financial convertible bonds increased by 0.44% [15][28] - The premium rate for convertible bonds remained stable at approximately 22%, with the median price around 119 yuan, indicating a strong demand for convertible bonds despite slight declines in bond valuations [30][35] Group 2 - Economic indicators suggest a recovery in domestic consumption and investment, with GDP growth in Q1 reaching 5.4%, exceeding market expectations [42][44] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating a contraction, driven by weakened external demand due to tariff impacts [44][45] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors such as technology, defense, and precious metals, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic demand in supporting export chains [45][48] Group 3 - The outlook for the convertible bond market suggests a stable valuation for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, with potential for upward adjustment in AAA-rated large-cap convertible bonds [51][58] - A balanced strategy is recommended, focusing on low-priced debt-oriented convertible bonds and growth-oriented equity-sensitive varieties, particularly in sectors like agriculture, wind energy, and transportation [58][59] - The proposed convertible bond portfolio includes various bonds from sectors such as new energy, cyclical industries, and semiconductor equipment, indicating a diversified investment approach [59][60]

月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.04.30） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强，IM、IC 相对强势 参考策略：持有 IM2505 多单、买入 1 手 MO2506-C-5900 看涨期权同时卖出 2 手 MO2506-P-5200 看跌期权组合 核心逻辑： 中期观点：高位震荡 参考策略：观望 1.中央政治局会议强调底线思维 财政政策重点在于存量落地。货币政策上提到将 创设新的工具。会议明确了决策层坚决维护资本市场稳定的决心，后续权益市场整体下行风 险可控，叠加业绩披露期结束后进入真空期，在经济整体稳定、流动性充裕背景下，市场风 险偏好有望持续提升。 2.产业方面，中央政治局就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习，对高端芯 片、基础软件、算力基建、数据资源等构建自主可控的人工智能基础软硬件系统做出部署， 从政策角度来看，继续重点关注科技自主可控，国产替代，算力、数据要素等产业体系，IC、 IM 或保持相对强势。 3.中美贸易博弈延续，短期不确定性依然较高，风险资产抛压情绪持续扰动 A 股市场。 国债期货 中期观点：蓄力上涨 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日 ...

4 月 30 日，市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.23% ，深成指涨 0.51% ，创业板 指涨 0.83% 。 板块方面，华为昇腾、人形机器人、 AI 眼镜、算力等板块涨幅居前，银行、电力、钢铁、港口等板块跌 幅居前。 全市场超 3400 只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额 1.17 万亿元，较上个交易日放量 1472 亿。 来到4月最后一个交易日，市场资金纷纷放下"心理包袱"，围绕节假日潜在催化，投向了各自看好的板 块、方向。 不论投资者具体选择了哪边，盘面上已出现一个重要变化： 每经记者 赵云 每经编辑 肖芮冬 以科技股为代表的高弹性股票走强，银行、保险、电力等防御性资产继续调整。 | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 互联网 | 电脑硬件 | 节车零部件 | 教育 | 软件 | 休闲用品 | 工业机械 | | 2.74% | 2.63% | 2.33% | 2.17% | 2.16% | 2.16% | 1.77% | | 给我 | 文化传媒 | 摩托车 | 半导体 | 通 ...

2025.04. 30 高平聚能资本基金经理谢爱民认为，市场情绪迷茫之际，中国科技逆向前行，四月事件扰动及财报压 力释放后，五月份大概率将再现科技股领涨亮点，行业将呈现出加速发展的热情。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴（不午休版） 推荐阅读 多地宣布发钱奖励结婚！ 作者 | 第一财经 截至午盘， 上证指数报3283.97点，跌0.08%，深成指报9921.88点，涨0.73%，创业板指报 1951.43点，涨1.01%。 AI应用、算力、华为鸿蒙、消费电子、人形机器人、半导体、新能源车题 材活跃，银行、电力股出现调整。 机构观点 东方证券投顾汪啸骅认为，外部扰动阶段性缓和，全球风险资产或迎反弹。多数资金仍有观察政策刺 激和交易科技突破意愿。5月行情或先上后下，关注后续债市融资过程中货币政策配合节奏。板块结 构上需关注科技自主可控及消费领域刺激力度，服务业领域传媒和旅游等方向仍有较好改善空间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 中证500质量成长指数 has shown a slight decline, with mixed performance among its constituent stocks, indicating a volatile market environment [1][2] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF has experienced a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 5 million shares this month, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the 中证500质量成长指数 account for 24.26% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key companies [2] Group 2 - The short-term international economic outlook remains uncertain, but domestic policies and resilient internal demand are expected to support the A-share market's relative advantage over overseas markets [2] - The mid-term focus is on the AI technology revolution and self-sufficiency, with recommendations to pay attention to domestic technology and consumption sectors benefiting from policy support [2] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the 中证500质量成长指数, which selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the 中证500 index [2]