证券研究报告 2026年1月26日 行业：电子 增持 （维持） 全球算力多点突破，AI 驱动端侧应用渗透（更正） ——科技主题观点综述 分析师：颜枫 SAC编号：S0870525030001 分析师：方晨 SAC编号：S0870523060001 分析师：李心语 SAC编号：S0870525040001 主要观点 风险提示：人工智能技术落地和商业化不及预期；产业政策转变；宏观经济不及预期。 更正说明:页16更正数据、补充"资料来源：WIND，上海证券研究所 *盈利预测来自WIND机构一致预期"。 2 • "硬科技"在AI驱动下表现突出：A股上市公司中，以国产算力芯片，AI-PCB，AIDC配套设施，AI端侧Soc芯片设计/封 测和部分消费电子企业为代表的板块在2024年业绩表现出较快增速，并在2025年Q1-Q3保持高增长，展望2025-2026年， 有望受益于国产算力资本开支持续增长，端侧应用渗透率不断提高，成为电子乃至科技行业增速较快的领域。 • 大国博弈下科技行业的估值体系有望重构：随着中美两国在科技/贸易等领域持续博弈，以电子行业为代表的科技板块 的估值中枢有望进一步抬升，我们认为尤其是目前国产化比例 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025. This sector is projected to benefit from continued growth in domestic computing capital investment and increasing penetration of edge applications, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the electronics and technology industries [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in the semiconductor manufacturing and equipment sectors, where the domestic production ratio is currently low. Companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, North Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Zhongwei Company are recommended for attention [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB (semiconductors) and AI optical modules. Companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others are highlighted for their potential [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," have become more cost-effective due to macroeconomic impacts on stock prices. Leading companies in the fruit chain and ODM sectors are expected to leverage demand in AIoT, humanoid robots, and automotive electronics to achieve performance and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, leading to significant breakthroughs for PCB manufacturers in the AI server field. The overall market for AI chips is expected to grow, with China being a major consumer market [18][22] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is pushing the development of various applications, including automotive electronics and IoT, which are expected to drive growth in the chip industry [18] Semiconductor and Equipment - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is projected to see substantial growth, with companies like SMIC and North Huachuang showing promising revenue and profit growth rates [17] - The PCB equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 290.25 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 347.09 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive applications. Domestic manufacturers are increasing their market presence with high-end products [46] - The SoC market is expected to grow, with AI technology becoming a crucial component for various applications, including smart home devices and automotive electronics [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the domestic computing power industry, including Cambrian (688256) and SMIC (0981.HK) [7][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the certainty of investment opportunities in the domestic computing power sector, driven by the upcoming release of the new generation of computing power chips, represented by H Company’s 950 series, which will enter mass production in the first quarter [5][6]. - The domestic computing power industry is expected to see significant growth, with ByteDance projected to invest 150 billion in global computing power procurement in 2026, of which 60-65 billion is expected to be allocated domestically, with over 40 billion for domestic computing power [6]. - The report suggests that the impact of the H200 release on the domestic computing power industry will be limited, as the primary application scenarios differ from those of domestic solutions [6]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The domestic computing power sector has faced challenges due to U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and key materials. However, breakthroughs are anticipated starting in the second half of 2025, with improved collaboration between chip design companies and foundries expected to enhance production yields by 2026 [5][6]. - The report highlights the optimization of the supply chain and the collaboration between hardware and software, which has significantly improved the usability of domestic computing power in AI inference scenarios [5]. Demand Side - The demand for computing power in 2026 is becoming clearer, with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent also planning significant investments in domestic computing power [6]. - The report notes that the three major telecom operators are expected to increase their procurement of domestic computing power to meet the growing demand from AI applications [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on Cambrian (688256) as a representative of domestic computing power card suppliers and SMIC (0981.HK) as a leading foundry. Additionally, attention is drawn to Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) for its advancements in advanced processes [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring companies related to domestic IC substrates due to supply bottlenecks caused by shortages of upstream materials, recommending companies like Shenzhen South Circuit (002916) and Pengding Holdings (002938) [7]. Overseas Computing Power Industry - The report observes a shift in the driving force of AI computing power from training large models to deploying inference applications, with companies like Google leading advancements in model capabilities [8][9]. - The report anticipates continued high growth in AI application-driven computing power demand, with major companies expected to double their computing power every six months over the next few years [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with defense, general aviation, and chip sectors showing significant gains. The Kexin 50 ETF rose by 1.97%, and Haiguang Information surged by 10.59% [1] - The development of computing power chips is entering a critical window period, supported by strong policy initiatives. Eight departments jointly issued implementation opinions to enhance AI computing power supply and promote the collaborative development of smart chip hardware and software [1] - The demand for AI is driving a persistent "chip shortage," particularly in storage and optical chips, with many manufacturers indicating that price increases will continue due to tight supply and demand in the memory market [1] Group 2 - There is a long-term trend of orders shifting towards domestic chips, driven by the urgent need for stable computing power supply. Cloud vendors and AI startups are increasingly planning to procure more computing power from domestic chips, leading to a rise in domestic market share [2] - As domestic advanced process technology matures, domestic computing power chips are entering mass production, and the timing for a significant increase in market share is ripe. Market concentration is expected to rise, particularly for domestic chip companies gaining rapid share among mainstream cloud vendors [2] - The Kexin 50 Index focuses on high-tech and strategic emerging industries, with a clear long-term growth logic. The Kexin 50 ETF is a representative tool for tracking this index, offering comprehensive sector coverage, good liquidity, and strong representation, making it an important investment choice to capture opportunities in the rise of domestic computing power and the AI industry chain [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant "siphon effect" of AI and the accelerated development of satellite internet, recommending a focus on the dual core themes of "AI + Satellite" and four key segments: "Optical + Liquid Cooling + Domestic Computing Power + Satellite" [5][15] - It highlights the expected growth in AI applications, particularly in voice and image recognition technologies, which will drive demand for smart computing modules and CDN services [7][17] - The report notes the increasing importance of satellite internet as a core component of 6G, driven by national policies emphasizing self-sufficiency and technological upgrades [8][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests actively positioning in multiple sub-sectors, focusing on "AI + Satellite" as the main investment themes for 2026 [5][15] 2. Key Segments for 2026 Segment One: Global AI Resonance - 2026 is projected to be the year of significant deployment for 1.6T optical modules, with advancements in silicon photonics technology expected to become mainstream [6][16] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling technologies, driven by the release of new computing power chips from major companies [6][16] Segment Two: AI Applications - The development of AI toys and applications is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for intelligent computing modules and CDN services [7][17] Segment Three: Satellite Internet Development - The report identifies four key areas of focus within the satellite internet sector: satellite manufacturing, launch, ground equipment, and operations, all of which are expected to benefit from increased demand and government support [8][18] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various segments, including optical network equipment, computing devices, and AI applications, highlighting potential beneficiaries in each category [19][20][26][27] 4. Market Review - The communication index experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 29 to December 31, 2025, ranking fourth among TMT sectors [28] 5. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China had a total of 4.83 million 5G base stations, with 5G mobile phone users reaching 1.193 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [29][34]

2025年即将收官，资本市场于震荡中积蓄力量，也在变化中孕育新机。站在布局2026年的关键时点，A 股市场将如何演绎？在长城基金近日举办的2026年度投资策略会上，长城基金权益投资部基金经理苏俊 彦以《由外转内，盈利修复下的新格局——长城基金2026年A股市场展望》为主题，为广大投资者带来 专业分享。 展望2026年，苏俊彦认为市场仍值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向盈利+估值双 重驱动。结构上，有望从外需主导拉动，逐渐转化为外需、内需共振拉动的态势。 苏俊彦指出，内需有望回暖主要基于两方面：一是当前居民消费在国内GDP中占比较低，仍有较大提升 空间，未来几年消费提升将极大驱动内需增长；二是2026年国内有望进一步扩大财政开支，持续推动消 费回到合理水平。 "随着需求逐步回暖、供给增速放缓，我们有理由期待2026年出现盈利增长的拐点，且2027年趋势有望 强化。"苏俊彦表示，届时A股上行空间将有望进一步打开。明年可重点关注以下方向： 一是半导体与军工。半导体行业已处重要拐点，国产算力芯片有望迎来技术突破与业绩兑现。2026年 是"十五五"开局之年，新质生产力或将成为军工增长新引擎。 二是"反内 ...

Group 1 - The first commercial liquid hydrogen refueling station in China has been put into operation in Panzhihua, marking a significant milestone in the hydrogen energy sector. This station is a collaborative project involving multiple organizations and is the first in the country to achieve a complete closed-loop system for liquid hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and usage [2] - China Eastern Airlines has officially launched the world's first C919 flight simulator, enhancing its operational capabilities for domestic large aircraft. This development signifies a key step in the support infrastructure for China's aviation industry [2] - The first high-altitude rock cave computing power cabin intelligent computing center in China has commenced operations at the Lianghekou Hydropower Station. The project, with a total investment of 350 million yuan, features six computing power cabins equipped with 2,000 domestic computing chips, capable of performing up to 60 billion floating-point operations per second [2] - A plan has been announced to construct Japan's largest data center hub in Toyama Prefecture, with a total power generation capacity of 3.1 gigawatts. This project aims to create one of the largest data center clusters globally, comparable to OpenAI's $500 billion project [2]

Core Insights - The "Two Rivers Mouth Computing Power Integration Demonstration Project" has been launched in Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province, leveraging the Two Rivers Mouth Super Reservoir Power Station, marking it as the first computing power integration project in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and the first high-altitude rock cavern computing power center in the country [1][3]. Investment and Infrastructure - The total investment for the project is approximately 350 million yuan, deploying 2,000 domestic computing power chips, including six computing power cabins, providing a peak computing power of about 600 PFLOPS (floating-point operations per second) [3]. - The project is located within the construction tunnel of the Two Rivers Mouth Hydropower Station, designed for a lifespan of 50 years, with an earthquake resistance level of 8 degrees [3]. Energy and Sustainability - The project utilizes abundant clean energy from the Two Rivers Mouth and surrounding areas, forming a stable energy supply system that integrates "water, wind, solar, hydrogen storage, and computing power" for efficient utilization [3]. - It aims to meet the computing center's year-round 100% reliable power supply needs, achieving a "zero-carbon computing power" supply [3].

Core Insights - The project marks the launch of China's first high-altitude rock cavern computing power integration center, located in the Yalong River Basin, Sichuan Province, with a total investment of approximately 350 million yuan [1][3] - The project consists of six computing power cabins, providing a peak computing power of about 600 PFLOPS, aimed at exploring new pathways for the development of "green electricity + computing power" [1][3] - The project will utilize domestic computing chips and aims to build an AI innovation platform for applications such as weather forecasting and operational maintenance [3] Group 1 - The project is a collaboration between State Investment Group Yalong River Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. and China Telecom Sichuan Branch [1] - It is designed to leverage the stable geological structure of the hydropower station's rock cavern, providing a safe and reliable operating environment for computing equipment [3] - The project aims to achieve a "zero-carbon computing power" supply by relying on clean energy and forming a stable energy supply system that meets the computing center's year-round 100% reliable power demand [3] Group 2 - As a representative project for green zero-carbon computing power integration in Sichuan Province, it will further promote the "East Data West Computing" initiative and contribute to the high-quality development of the digital economy in the region [4]

作为四川省绿色零碳算电融合代表性项目，将为四川省数字经济快速发展注入强劲动能。 来 源：央 视 新 闻 客 户 端 E n d 欢 迎 分 享 给 你 的 朋 友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 责编丨李慧颖 全国首个高海拔岩洞式算力舱智算中心正式投运。 今天， 全国首个高海拔岩洞式算力舱智算中心——雅砻江两河口算电融合示范项目，在两河口水电站正式投运 。项目总投资3.5亿元， 包括6个算力舱，部署了2000张国产算力芯片，最高每秒能完成60亿亿次浮点运算。 项目选址在两河口水电站施工隧洞内，抗震设防烈度达8度。充分利用水电站岩洞地质结构稳定的天然优势，能有效抵御地震、暴雨等 自然灾害，为算力设备提供安全可靠的运行环境。借助隧洞的天然恒温优势，两河口算电融合示范项目PUE值（能耗效率指标）控制在 1.2以下，达到了国内领先水平。同时与水电站共享高等级安防配置，可满足算力舱对数据安全的严格要求。 ...