智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2026年国内外AI基础设施建设仍将继续保持强劲，同时 国内坚定推进国产化率提升，因此继续看好半导体及相关器件元件投资机会，包括国产算力芯片、存储 芯片涨价大周期、PCB、半导体制造和装备、先进封装、以及半导体材料方向。 板块跟踪：1)近一个月半导体指数表现：从涨跌幅水平来看，半导体行业指数跑输沪深300指数3.86个 百分点，跑输电子指数1.44个百分点。从具体数据来看，半导体行业指数涨跌幅为-3.15%，电子行业指 数涨跌幅为-1.71%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为0.71%。2)近一年半导体指数表现：从涨跌幅水平来看，半导 体行业指数跑赢沪深300指数27.08个百分点，跑赢电子指数1.22个百分点。从具体数据来看，半导体行 业指数涨跌幅为46.38%，电子行业指数涨跌幅为45.16%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为19.3%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 风险提示：技术迭代不及预期的风险；国际贸易的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；国际政治环境变动不确 定性的风险。 行业数据跟踪：1)半导体：2025年12月，全球半导体行业实现789亿美元的销售额，环比增长2.7%，同 比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025 [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, equipment, and design, which are areas of low domestic production [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB and AI optical modules, suggesting investment in companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," are seen as having good value due to recent price corrections, with potential for performance and valuation recovery driven by AIoT and automotive electronics [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, with PCB manufacturers achieving significant breakthroughs in AI server applications [22] - The market for AI chips is expected to grow, with the Chinese market projected to reach approximately 342.46 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth [44] Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more diverse application scenarios, with automotive electronics and IoT driving growth [18] - The PCB equipment market is expected to reach 29.025 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 11.89% year-on-year, and is projected to reach 34.709 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is recovering, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive sectors, with a focus on high-end products [46] - AI is providing new growth potential for consumer electronics, with ODM companies gaining competitive advantages [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025. This sector is projected to benefit from continued growth in domestic computing capital investment and increasing penetration of edge applications, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the electronics and technology industries [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in the semiconductor manufacturing and equipment sectors, where the domestic production ratio is currently low. Companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, North Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Zhongwei Company are recommended for attention [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB (semiconductors) and AI optical modules. Companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others are highlighted for their potential [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," have become more cost-effective due to macroeconomic impacts on stock prices. Leading companies in the fruit chain and ODM sectors are expected to leverage demand in AIoT, humanoid robots, and automotive electronics to achieve performance and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, leading to significant breakthroughs for PCB manufacturers in the AI server field. The overall market for AI chips is expected to grow, with China being a major consumer market [18][22] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is pushing the development of various applications, including automotive electronics and IoT, which are expected to drive growth in the chip industry [18] Semiconductor and Equipment - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is projected to see substantial growth, with companies like SMIC and North Huachuang showing promising revenue and profit growth rates [17] - The PCB equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 290.25 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 347.09 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive applications. Domestic manufacturers are increasing their market presence with high-end products [46] - The SoC market is expected to grow, with AI technology becoming a crucial component for various applications, including smart home devices and automotive electronics [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the domestic computing power industry, including Cambrian (688256) and SMIC (0981.HK) [7][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the certainty of investment opportunities in the domestic computing power sector, driven by the upcoming release of the new generation of computing power chips, represented by H Company’s 950 series, which will enter mass production in the first quarter [5][6]. - The domestic computing power industry is expected to see significant growth, with ByteDance projected to invest 150 billion in global computing power procurement in 2026, of which 60-65 billion is expected to be allocated domestically, with over 40 billion for domestic computing power [6]. - The report suggests that the impact of the H200 release on the domestic computing power industry will be limited, as the primary application scenarios differ from those of domestic solutions [6]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The domestic computing power sector has faced challenges due to U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and key materials. However, breakthroughs are anticipated starting in the second half of 2025, with improved collaboration between chip design companies and foundries expected to enhance production yields by 2026 [5][6]. - The report highlights the optimization of the supply chain and the collaboration between hardware and software, which has significantly improved the usability of domestic computing power in AI inference scenarios [5]. Demand Side - The demand for computing power in 2026 is becoming clearer, with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent also planning significant investments in domestic computing power [6]. - The report notes that the three major telecom operators are expected to increase their procurement of domestic computing power to meet the growing demand from AI applications [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on Cambrian (688256) as a representative of domestic computing power card suppliers and SMIC (0981.HK) as a leading foundry. Additionally, attention is drawn to Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) for its advancements in advanced processes [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring companies related to domestic IC substrates due to supply bottlenecks caused by shortages of upstream materials, recommending companies like Shenzhen South Circuit (002916) and Pengding Holdings (002938) [7]. Overseas Computing Power Industry - The report observes a shift in the driving force of AI computing power from training large models to deploying inference applications, with companies like Google leading advancements in model capabilities [8][9]. - The report anticipates continued high growth in AI application-driven computing power demand, with major companies expected to double their computing power every six months over the next few years [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with defense, general aviation, and chip sectors showing significant gains. The Kexin 50 ETF rose by 1.97%, and Haiguang Information surged by 10.59% [1] - The development of computing power chips is entering a critical window period, supported by strong policy initiatives. Eight departments jointly issued implementation opinions to enhance AI computing power supply and promote the collaborative development of smart chip hardware and software [1] - The demand for AI is driving a persistent "chip shortage," particularly in storage and optical chips, with many manufacturers indicating that price increases will continue due to tight supply and demand in the memory market [1] Group 2 - There is a long-term trend of orders shifting towards domestic chips, driven by the urgent need for stable computing power supply. Cloud vendors and AI startups are increasingly planning to procure more computing power from domestic chips, leading to a rise in domestic market share [2] - As domestic advanced process technology matures, domestic computing power chips are entering mass production, and the timing for a significant increase in market share is ripe. Market concentration is expected to rise, particularly for domestic chip companies gaining rapid share among mainstream cloud vendors [2] - The Kexin 50 Index focuses on high-tech and strategic emerging industries, with a clear long-term growth logic. The Kexin 50 ETF is a representative tool for tracking this index, offering comprehensive sector coverage, good liquidity, and strong representation, making it an important investment choice to capture opportunities in the rise of domestic computing power and the AI industry chain [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant "siphon effect" of AI and the accelerated development of satellite internet, recommending a focus on the dual core themes of "AI + Satellite" and four key segments: "Optical + Liquid Cooling + Domestic Computing Power + Satellite" [5][15] - It highlights the expected growth in AI applications, particularly in voice and image recognition technologies, which will drive demand for smart computing modules and CDN services [7][17] - The report notes the increasing importance of satellite internet as a core component of 6G, driven by national policies emphasizing self-sufficiency and technological upgrades [8][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests actively positioning in multiple sub-sectors, focusing on "AI + Satellite" as the main investment themes for 2026 [5][15] 2. Key Segments for 2026 Segment One: Global AI Resonance - 2026 is projected to be the year of significant deployment for 1.6T optical modules, with advancements in silicon photonics technology expected to become mainstream [6][16] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling technologies, driven by the release of new computing power chips from major companies [6][16] Segment Two: AI Applications - The development of AI toys and applications is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for intelligent computing modules and CDN services [7][17] Segment Three: Satellite Internet Development - The report identifies four key areas of focus within the satellite internet sector: satellite manufacturing, launch, ground equipment, and operations, all of which are expected to benefit from increased demand and government support [8][18] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various segments, including optical network equipment, computing devices, and AI applications, highlighting potential beneficiaries in each category [19][20][26][27] 4. Market Review - The communication index experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 29 to December 31, 2025, ranking fourth among TMT sectors [28] 5. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China had a total of 4.83 million 5G base stations, with 5G mobile phone users reaching 1.193 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [29][34]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to transition from a valuation-driven growth to a dual-driven growth model of both profit and valuation, with a shift from external demand to a resonance of both external and internal demand in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to show optimism, with a potential turning point for profit growth expected in 2026, supported by a gradual recovery in demand and a slowdown in supply growth [1][4]. - Internal demand is projected to recover due to two main factors: the current low proportion of household consumption in GDP, which has significant room for improvement, and the expected increase in fiscal spending in 2026 to support consumption [1][4]. Group 2: Key Investment Areas - Focus on the semiconductor and military industries, as the semiconductor sector is at a critical turning point, with domestic computing chips expected to achieve technological breakthroughs and performance realization [5]. - Attention to "anti-involution" related industries, where policies aimed at eliminating backward production capacity are expected to optimize supply-demand dynamics in chemicals and new energy sectors, leading to price stabilization and rebound [5]. - Emphasis on consumer sectors, particularly service consumption, which is a key area for future policy support, with fiscal subsidies likely to favor the recovery of the restaurant and service industries, further boosting food and beverage consumption [5]. - Real estate sector is expected to gradually stabilize as new construction areas are projected to fall below long-term equilibrium levels by the end of 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The first commercial liquid hydrogen refueling station in China has been put into operation in Panzhihua, marking a significant milestone in the hydrogen energy sector. This station is a collaborative project involving multiple organizations and is the first in the country to achieve a complete closed-loop system for liquid hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and usage [2] - China Eastern Airlines has officially launched the world's first C919 flight simulator, enhancing its operational capabilities for domestic large aircraft. This development signifies a key step in the support infrastructure for China's aviation industry [2] - The first high-altitude rock cave computing power cabin intelligent computing center in China has commenced operations at the Lianghekou Hydropower Station. The project, with a total investment of 350 million yuan, features six computing power cabins equipped with 2,000 domestic computing chips, capable of performing up to 60 billion floating-point operations per second [2] - A plan has been announced to construct Japan's largest data center hub in Toyama Prefecture, with a total power generation capacity of 3.1 gigawatts. This project aims to create one of the largest data center clusters globally, comparable to OpenAI's $500 billion project [2]

Core Insights - The "Two Rivers Mouth Computing Power Integration Demonstration Project" has been launched in Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province, leveraging the Two Rivers Mouth Super Reservoir Power Station, marking it as the first computing power integration project in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and the first high-altitude rock cavern computing power center in the country [1][3]. Investment and Infrastructure - The total investment for the project is approximately 350 million yuan, deploying 2,000 domestic computing power chips, including six computing power cabins, providing a peak computing power of about 600 PFLOPS (floating-point operations per second) [3]. - The project is located within the construction tunnel of the Two Rivers Mouth Hydropower Station, designed for a lifespan of 50 years, with an earthquake resistance level of 8 degrees [3]. Energy and Sustainability - The project utilizes abundant clean energy from the Two Rivers Mouth and surrounding areas, forming a stable energy supply system that integrates "water, wind, solar, hydrogen storage, and computing power" for efficient utilization [3]. - It aims to meet the computing center's year-round 100% reliable power supply needs, achieving a "zero-carbon computing power" supply [3].

Core Insights - The project marks the launch of China's first high-altitude rock cavern computing power integration center, located in the Yalong River Basin, Sichuan Province, with a total investment of approximately 350 million yuan [1][3] - The project consists of six computing power cabins, providing a peak computing power of about 600 PFLOPS, aimed at exploring new pathways for the development of "green electricity + computing power" [1][3] - The project will utilize domestic computing chips and aims to build an AI innovation platform for applications such as weather forecasting and operational maintenance [3] Group 1 - The project is a collaboration between State Investment Group Yalong River Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. and China Telecom Sichuan Branch [1] - It is designed to leverage the stable geological structure of the hydropower station's rock cavern, providing a safe and reliable operating environment for computing equipment [3] - The project aims to achieve a "zero-carbon computing power" supply by relying on clean energy and forming a stable energy supply system that meets the computing center's year-round 100% reliable power demand [3] Group 2 - As a representative project for green zero-carbon computing power integration in Sichuan Province, it will further promote the "East Data West Computing" initiative and contribute to the high-quality development of the digital economy in the region [4]