中新社北京6月3日电 (记者 庞无忌)今年以来，中国核心城市房地产市场交易总体保持活跃。 刚刚过去的端午小长假(5月31日至6月2日)期间，多地新房延续此前的促销活动，但市场整体表现相对 平淡，分化趋势明显，核心城市部分"好房子"项目热度较高。 值得注意的是，今年以来，各地盘活闲置存量土地、商品房等举措加速。据中指研究院统计，截至目 前，24个省份已公示的拟使用专项债收购闲置存量土地总金额超4300亿元(人民币，下同)。广东、四 川、湖南、浙江等地已发行专项债用于收购闲置存量土地，发债总额超700亿元。供给侧加力为多地楼 市交易保持活跃提供了支撑。 展望后市，孟新增认为，今年以来，多部门联合推出政策组合拳向市场传递出稳楼市的明确信号，进一 步提振市场信心。后续，针对城市更新和高品质住房建设的配套支持政策或将陆续落地，为行业发展注 入新动能。不过，各城市之间、新老项目之间分化行情料将延续。(完) 该机构统计数据显示，今年前5个月，深圳、广州新房销售面积同比分别增长41%、24%，深圳二手房 成交量同比增长44%。同期，北京、上海二手房成交量同比分别上涨23%和34%，市场维持一定热度。5 月单月，上海新房销售面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of major real estate companies in China for the first five months of 2025 shows a significant decline compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Only Poly Developments achieved over 100 billion yuan in sales, totaling 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 15.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - China Overseas ranked second with sales of 90.4 billion yuan, down 11.3 billion yuan from the previous year [1]. - China Resources Land, despite moving up one rank, reported sales of 86.9 billion yuan, a decline of 5.8 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The threshold for entering the top 10 sales list increased to 43.3 billion yuan, with Huafa Group becoming the new entry, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.4 billion yuan [3]. - Companies like Yuexiu and Jianfa saw sales growth, while major players like China Vanke experienced a significant drop of over 44 billion yuan [3][4]. - The overall sales of the top 20 companies showed a mixed trend, with some companies like China State Construction and Greenland reporting growth, while others like Jinmao and Longfor faced declines [6][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by insufficient incremental demand, leading to intense competition among the top 100 companies [9]. - Recent price reductions by leading companies, such as China Overseas, indicate a response to market pressures despite the overarching goal of stabilizing the market [10]. - Policy changes, including interest rate cuts and reduced down payment ratios, aim to support the market, but the overall recovery remains sluggish [11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 原材料拖累，焦炭弱势震荡 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 16 日，山东部分主流钢厂开启对焦炭的首轮提降，目标降价 50~55 元/吨。此前，焦炭现货于 4 月中旬落地首轮涨价，而后便企稳运 行。近一个月以来，随着原材料焦煤价格缓慢下行，焦化厂利润逐渐修 复，生产积极性尚可。产量增加的同时，进入 5 月以后，钢厂提产积极性 走弱，对焦炭的采购放缓，观望情绪有所增加，部分钢厂由此开启第一轮 提降。期货市场方面，近几周，国内、外宏观氛围同时好转。一方面，国 新办发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has officially implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions, effective May 15, 2025, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, positively impacting the real estate sector and overall market confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Real Estate Market - The RRR cut is anticipated to significantly boost market confidence and alleviate pressure on homebuyers, thereby promoting housing demand [1]. - The reduction will enhance banks' lending capacity, particularly for personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans, which are key areas for commercial banks this year [1][2]. - The real estate market has already shown positive changes, with a 3% decline in new commercial housing sales area in Q1, a reduction that is 9.9 percentage points less than the previous year's total decline [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Policy Measures - In Q1, the funding situation for real estate companies improved, with domestic loans amounting to 444.1 billion yuan, a decrease that is 3.8 percentage points less than the January-February period [2]. - The total balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan in Q1, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [2]. - Continuous policy support is deemed essential to stabilize the real estate market and enhance consumer confidence, as indicated by the ongoing emphasis on maintaining a stable real estate market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Beyond the RRR cut, additional funding support policies are expected to be implemented to further stimulate housing demand and alleviate corporate financial pressures [3].

Group 1 - The "stabilizing real estate market" policies have led to a significant increase in local land acquisition, with April's planned land acquisition reaching 7,198 hectares and involving an amount of 173 billion yuan, surpassing the total from the first quarter [1] - The theoretical construction area of the planned residential land acquisition has exceeded 130 million square meters, which is more than half of the estimated new home sales for the first four months [1] - The land acquisition strategy aims to adjust the land supply structure, alleviating potential inventory pressure in the market and optimizing the supply structure of the real estate market [1] Group 2 - The current round of residential land acquisition is primarily focused on third- and fourth-tier cities, with planned acquisition areas reaching 5,437 hectares, accounting for over 80% of the total, and corresponding amounts of 165.9 billion yuan, making up 74% [2] - Special bonds have been issued in provinces like Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan for land acquisition, totaling over 40 billion yuan, with Hunan's first batch of special bonds for 2025 including 9.415 billion yuan specifically for land reserves [2] - The support from special bonds for land acquisition is expected to optimize the real estate inventory market and signal positive developments, emphasizing the need for improved efficiency in the allocation of special bond funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Construction Bank (CCB) Guangxi Branch actively supports national policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption through a collaborative model that integrates government, banking, and digital innovation to enhance housing consumption and contribute to the healthy development of the real estate market [1][4]. Group 1: Government-Bank Collaboration - CCB Guangxi Branch has participated in various "Good House, Happy Life" themed activities across multiple cities, establishing a one-stop housing consumption service platform in collaboration with local governments [2]. - The bank focuses on core consumer needs by offering two main financial services: promotional campaigns for housing loans and enhanced service efficiency, including preferential interest rates and expedited loan approval processes [2][4]. Group 2: Digital Tools and Efficiency - Leveraging financial technology, CCB Guangxi Branch has innovated housing consumption service scenarios, integrating online and offline experiences to facilitate seamless property searches and transactions [3]. - The "CCB Life" app provides features for finding properties, allowing users to access comprehensive real estate information and schedule viewings conveniently [3]. Group 3: Commitment to Consumer Needs - CCB Guangxi Branch emphasizes a people-centered approach, aiming to meet the housing needs of the public by enhancing its housing finance services and participating in numerous government-led housing initiatives [4]. - The bank has disbursed over 4 billion yuan in personal housing loans this year, assisting nearly 8,500 families in achieving their housing dreams, thereby stimulating housing consumption in Guangxi [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate sector is under pressure in terms of revenue and profit, with a significant decline in both metrics for 2024 and Q1 2025. The average operating revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%, while the average net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -1.77 billion, a staggering decline of 4889% [4][7] - The report highlights that the decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the downturn in real estate sales from 2022 to 2023, which has affected the settlement figures for 2024 and Q1 2025. The report also notes that the gross profit margin is declining, and the impairment ratio is at a historical high, leading to a negative net profit margin [4][8][13] Summary by Sections 1. Operating Performance - In 2024, the average operating revenue for the real estate sector is projected to be 20.7 billion, down 21.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of -1.77 billion, reflecting a decline of 4889% [7][13] - For Q1 2025, the average operating revenue is expected to be 3.2 billion, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, while the net profit is projected at -120 million, a decline of 3346% [4][9] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 14.0%, down 2.4 percentage points from 2023, while the net profit margin is projected to be -8.6%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points [8][22] 2. Credit Metrics - The asset-liability ratio for the real estate sector is projected to be 76.0% in 2024, a slight decrease from 2023, while the net liability ratio is expected to rise to 87.7%, an increase of 12.6 percentage points [25][30] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio is expected to be 0.9 times in 2024, down 0.3 times from 2023, indicating continued pressure on the funding side [33] 3. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and stock market, as well as the potential for high-quality housing to emerge as a growth area due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [4][40] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product strength in core cities, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [4][40]

自去年9月以来，国家陆续出台了一系列"稳楼市"政策，并将房地产"止跌回稳"纳入到了政府工作的总 体要求，明确要持续推动房地产市场走出低迷、实现回稳。与此同时，在房地产融资协调机制下，政策 在改善房地产企业融资环境方面持续释放积极信号，尤其是对符合条件的"白名单"项目"应贷尽贷"，以 充分保障在建房地产项目交付。 "有一段时间，面对房地产行业深度调整、融资难度加大的严峻形势，保利财务公司逆势加大了对集团 房地产业务的信贷支持，有效缓解了房地产企业资金周转压力，保障了开发项目正常推进和按期交付， 保障了购房者权益。"郭华表示，保利财务公司2024年房地产贷款日均规模291亿元，同比增长了35%， 远高于社会房地产贷款平均增幅。 此外，他还表示，未来保利财务公司将加快推进财务数智化转型，加强大数据、人工智能技术应用，从 业务智能化、风控智能化、决策智能化三个领域不断提升金融服务的精准性和效率，依托集团司库运营 平台，不断提升数据挖掘分析能力，为集团决策提供数据支撑，有效赋能管理提升。 "保交楼是底线，也是保利作为央企的责任。"郭华对记者表示。据了解，保利旗下的房地产项目至今尚 无在建项目烂尾情况。 作为企业与银行的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of personal housing provident fund loan interest rates by several cities in China aims to stimulate the housing market and alleviate financial pressure on homebuyers, with rates reaching historical lows [1][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Adjustment - Starting from May 8, 2025, the People's Bank of China has lowered the personal housing provident fund loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rates for first-time homebuyers being 2.6% for loans over five years and 2.1% for loans under five years [2][4]. - The second home loan rates have been adjusted to 3.075% for loans over five years and not lower than 2.525% for loans under five years [2][4]. Implementation by Banks - Major banks in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have begun implementing the new interest rates as of May 8, 2025, for new loan applications [3][4]. - Existing loans will see their rates adjusted starting January 1, 2026, ensuring a uniform application of the new rates [3][4]. Market Impact - The interest rate reduction is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments, potentially boosting consumer spending and indirectly supporting real estate sales [5]. - The adjustment is seen as a measure to stabilize the housing market, with a focus on preventing significant price increases while addressing key issues such as housing supply and affordability [4][5].

"稳住楼市、股市对提振社会预期、畅通内需循环具有重要意义。"在5月7日举行的国务院新闻办新闻发 布会上，国家金融监管总局局长李云泽表示，4月25日中央政治局会议再次对稳定楼市和股市提出了明 确要求。金融监管总局坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院部署要求，协同打好"组合拳"，积极做好相关工 作。对"助小微""保外贸""科技金融"等方面也均进一步健全制度及加大支持力度。 稳楼市："白名单"贷款增至6.7万亿元 谈及"稳楼市"方面，李云泽透露，将扎实推动城市房地产融资协调机制扩围增效，支持打赢保交房攻坚 战。他表示，目前，商业银行审批通过的"白名单"贷款增至6.7万亿元，支持了1600多万套住宅的建设 和交付，有力保障了广大购房人的合法权益，为房地产市场止跌回稳提供了重要支撑。 与此同时，房地产市场的积极变化在信贷数据上也有所体现。据李云泽透露，今年一季度，房地产贷款 余额增加7500多亿元，其中新增个人住房贷款创2022年以来单季最大增幅，住房租赁贷款同比增长 28%。最近一些来华的头部国际投资机构也认为中国房地产市场的投资价值正在逐步显现。 "下一步，我们将加快完善与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，包括房地产开发 ...