国泰海通发布研报称，2025年1-11月服务消费(文化娱乐、餐饮、教育)同比增长5.4%，必选消费(食品、 日用品)韧性凸显，成为行业复苏核心动力。在促消费政策托底与基本面修复预期下，2026年消费行业 大概率延续温和复苏态势，重视CPI主线驱动下的复苏机会(复苏弹性排序：服务业>大众品>高端消 费)，重视新消费(成长赛道)孕育出的结构性机会。 中国经济增长动力由"商品消费驱动"转向"服务消费驱动"，展望2026年，消费市场复苏弹性取决于价格 (CPI驱动)，从价格传导机制来看，复苏弹性呈现"服务业>大众品>高端消费"的排序。①服务业：作为 2026年消费复苏的核心引擎，服务业凭借"供给弹性低、需求刚性强"的特征，有望率先受益于CPI回升 与需求释放，文旅服务、健康服务、教育服务等细分领域值得重点关注;②大众品：食品、日用品等作 为居民生活不可或缺的必需品，"需求刚性强、消费频次高"的属性使其在CPI回升周期中具备较强的成 本转嫁能力，同时扩内需政策中针对下沉市场的消费激励举措，将进一步拓宽大众品的需求空间;③高 端消费：高端白酒、免税、奢侈品、高端家电等受经济预期及财富效应影响较大，其复苏过程需要经 历"经 ...

报告来源 2025年消费行业复盘：经济疲弱叠加外部冲击对消费行业的影响，已经在2025年四季度充分体现。 通过跟踪消费核心指标——社零数据（全国+一线城市）、 全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额、就业数据、人均可支配收入、消费者信心指数等，基本面数据大多已在四季度触底，2025年消费行业呈现"企稳回升、结构 优化、信心修复"的特征。支撑端主要来自服务消费复苏及基础消费韧性，1-11月服务消费（文化娱乐、餐饮、教育）同比增长5.4%，必选消费（食品、日用 品）韧性凸显，成为行业复苏核心动力。 2026年消费复苏方向：中国经济增长动力由"商品消费驱动"转向"服务消费驱动"，2026年消费市场复苏弹性取决于价格（CPI驱动），从价格传导机制来看， 复苏弹性呈现"服务业 >大众品 >高端消费"的排序。 ①服务业：作为2026年消费复苏的核心引擎，服务业凭借"供给弹性低、需求刚性强"的特征，有望率先受 益于CPI回升与需求释放，文旅服务、健康服务、教育服务等细分领域值得重点关注；②大众品：食品、日用品等作为居民生活不可或缺的必需品，"需求刚性 强、消费频次高"的属性使其在CPI回升周期中具备较强的成本转嫁能力，同时扩内需政策 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：中国新兴科技产业处于生命周期早期阶段，估值偏高，创新优势显著的公司市值有望增长； 制造和消费产业成熟度更高，全球竞争力稳固的公司估值有望提升。 摘要 ▶从全球比较视野，看中国龙头公司重估机会。在全球经济格局深度调整与科技竞争加剧的背景下，中 国新兴产业正经历从"规模追赶"到"价值重估"的历史性转变。本文系统性梳理了海内外先进制造、科 技、大消费三大领域近百家龙头公司所处的基本面位置以及估值水平，发现在先进制造领域，中国公司 已展现出较高的产业成熟度和更强的全球竞争力，盈利能力突出且估值更具性价比；硬科技正经历 从"跟跑"到"并跑"的关键阶段，应用端具备较好地估值性价比与成长空间；商品消费已展现出较强的盈 利能力，但全球化程度仍待提升，服务消费尚处发展初期，经济结构转型下成长空间广阔。 ▶新兴科技：硬科技加速追赶，应用估值性价比显著。当前，中国新兴科技产业（如半导体、创新药、 通信设备）整体仍处于成长初期，在营收规模和盈利能力上与国际龙头尚有差距，但资本市场已给予较 高估值，体现了对技术自主与产业追赶的乐观预期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in liquor consumption, particularly in the high-end segment, is primarily attributed to economic conditions and policy changes rather than a shift in young people's drinking habits [1][31]. Economic Environment - The liquor industry, especially high-end liquor, is categorized as an "elastic consumption" good, meaning it is not a necessity and is more likely to be cut from budgets during economic downturns [14][18]. - The turning point for the liquor industry occurred in 2020, with stocks of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye reaching historical peaks in early 2020 but subsequently declining for over five years [3][5]. - By the third quarter of 2025, even industry giants like Wuliangye reported significant profit declines, a scenario previously unimaginable [5]. - Economic pressures have led to reduced consumer spending, with a notable decrease in the business liquor market, which dropped by 32% year-on-year in 2024 [18][20]. Consumer Demographics - The primary consumer base for liquor has historically been middle-aged individuals, with those under 30 accounting for less than 15% of total consumption, while those over 35 represent 72.8% [9][12]. - The notion that young people are the cause of declining sales overlooks the fact that the main consumer group is facing economic challenges, leading to reduced spending [12][31]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, such as the revised regulations on government consumption of alcohol, have significantly altered the consumption landscape, particularly in the business sector [20][22]. - The 2025 revision of the "Regulations on Saving and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Agencies" expanded restrictions on all alcoholic beverages, contributing to a short-term decline of 2%-3% in the liquor sector [22][28]. - Local policies, like those from Guizhou province aimed at transforming the liquor industry, indicate a need for adaptation in response to changing market conditions [24][28]. Market Dynamics - The inventory levels of liquor companies have surged, with 20 listed liquor firms reporting stock levels of 168.39 billion yuan, an increase of 19.29 billion yuan year-on-year [26]. - Many distributors are experiencing price inversions, where the selling price is lower than the manufacturer's suggested price, further dampening market enthusiasm [26][28]. - The combination of economic pressures and policy regulations has compressed the consumption space for high-end liquor, which previously relied heavily on government and corporate events [30][31]. Conclusion - The decline in liquor consumption is fundamentally linked to economic conditions and regulatory changes rather than a simple shift in consumer preferences among younger demographics [31][37]. - The industry must adapt to these economic and policy shifts to meet evolving consumer demands, rather than attributing the decline to younger consumers [35][37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

这一转变已成为行业共识，不仅华致酒行，茅台、五粮液等主流酒企及众多消费品公司，均在持续加大对C端的投入，将构建用户资产作为长期竞争壁垒。 对于酒类流通企业而言，这场转型既是挑战也是机遇。中小企业目前正普遍面临价格倒挂与库存周转天数压力，而那些能够精准把握用户需求、构建高效服 务体系的企业，正逐步抢占市场主导地位。华致酒行适时开启的"新零售保真连锁品牌+酒类供应链服务平台"的战略升维，正是对这一行业趋势的精准把握 与主动响应。 当白酒行业从规模扩张的增量时代迈入价值重构的存量竞争，酒类流通领域正经历一场深刻的结构性变革。消费分级加剧、需求场景多元、数字化浪潮冲 击，传统"渠道为王"的增长逻辑逐渐失效，以用户运营为核心的新范式加速成型。 【渠道博弈到用户主权时代】 中国白酒行业正经历深度调整。《2025至2030中国白酒行业市场深度调研报告》显示，行业呈现显著的"量降利升"特征，2025年产量预计跌破390万千升， 但利润总额有望达2700亿元，头部酒企市占率持续提升，马太效应加剧。而这种结构性变化的背后，是消费端与渠道端的双重变革，推动酒类流通行业从规 模竞争转向价值竞争。 消费分级与需求多元化正在重构市场生态 ...

白酒股不缺关注，尤其是最近。无论是终端价格，还是库存、股价，始终牵动着投资者的心弦。 最近，我们再次邀请基金经理田瑀做客直播间。田瑀对白酒行业有长期且深入的研究，本次直播中，他就大家 关心的库存、场景、抽样调研等问题，进行了详细的解答。以下为直播实录。 提问 您一直以来都是寻找有宽护城河的企业，在之前的直播和文章中，提到过高端白酒企业拥有很宽的护城 河。但近期市场部分高端白酒产品的价格已经失守了某些特定的点位。您觉得这是因为高端白酒的护城河变窄 了，还是仅仅因为库存周期？ 田瑀 首先说结论，这不是因为护城河变窄了。 在漫长的时间周期里，价格下跌并不是第一次发生，在2014-2015年期间也出现过高端产品价格跌至800元左右 的情况。 高端白酒的价格出现周期性波动，是历史上一直存在的现象， 并非护城河变窄，而是周期性的问题，但不仅 仅只是因为库存周期。 库存周期起到了一定作用。本质上，还是 经济的周期性波动带来了终端需求的周期性 变化，库存是一个放大器。 过去几年，高端白酒报表层面的需求与市场终端的需求间存在错配。高端白酒此前特别赚钱，当终端需求出现 波动或者不好的时候，厂家往往会要求经销商帮忙承担一部分压力， ...

（原标题：2025新消费大会：寻找新增量，从"中国消费"到"消费中国"） 21世纪经济报道记者 易佳颖 12月17日，大消费行业"年度风向标"级别的会议——21世纪经济报道"新消费大会"于上海落地，汇聚了 来自众多消费品牌、知名投资机构和券商，以及平台等各领域上百名嘉宾。 过去一年见证了消费行业的激烈竞争，也看到坚持长期主义的品牌的不断成长。本届大会以"跨界增长 融合创新"为主题，从行业趋势、商业模式、产品与服务以及增长逻辑等方面，共同探讨品牌的快速成 长、创新与破圈的策略，为行业壮大新型消费提供清晰的行业洞察和判断。 消费向新 IP潮经济也带动Z世代年轻人的消费力。"当前消费市场正在经历深刻的需求重构。"百联挚高创始合伙 人、CEO高洪庆发表主旨演讲时表示，研究任何消费现象的起点与终点，都应回归对消费者本身的洞 察。近期市场关注两个关键信号：一是高端白酒代表茅台的价格出现显著回落，其投资与囤货逻辑受到 质疑；二是"老登"这一网络流行语所反映的代际认知变化。这两者共同指向一个核心趋势：Z世代 （1995年至2009年出生人群）已成为消费主力，他们的价值观正重塑市场规则。 消费者的主体性在方方面面都得以体现。" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector in 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in this area [5][7]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as a key focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and increasing urban and rural incomes [5][6]. - The article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights that expanding domestic demand is essential for long-term economic health and meeting the needs of the population, with a focus on accelerating domestic demand, particularly consumption [6][7]. - The emphasis on consumption as a core growth driver reflects a strategic approach to leverage China's large market for sustainable growth, indicating continued policy support for consumption [7][8]. Summary by Sections - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: The report outlines that the strategy to expand domestic demand is crucial for maintaining long-term economic growth and addressing the needs of the population, with a focus on consumption as the main driver [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies three key areas for investment recovery in 2026: 1. **Services**: Highlighted as a priority area with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in elderly care, education, healthcare, and culture [8]. 2. **Mass Products**: Expected to see stable recovery due to bottom stabilization, structural optimization, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily goods [8]. 3. **High-end Consumption**: Driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with structural opportunities in sectors like Chinese baijiu, duty-free, and high-end household appliances [9].

高端白酒价格的持续下跌是今年备受关注的现象，伴随库存积压、价格倒挂现象的加剧，关于消费断代与场景 变迁的讨论也始终持续。 公司内部可能存在经营节奏的变化和管理层变化对渠道信心的变化。但这些都是短期现象，我们要观察长期， 还是要 基于产品的品质、矩阵和品牌等核心竞争力 。 目前来看，能够提供确定性判断的是，高端白酒本身的格局没有大变化，品质和产品结构也可观察。今年公司 面对较大的外部需求冲击，但仍存偏刚性的收入增长考核，于是出现了渠道结构失衡和淡季供求失衡的情况。 但从长期看，平台低价产品的量是有限的，强大的品牌力，会让这部分产品很快被更多消费者消化。 当然，我们并不能断言当前价格就是本轮周期的最低价，这取决于明年需求端的变化、公司供给侧的增长考核 目标，以及产品结构中的增量品种等，这是由多维度共同决定的，所以判断短期价格的难度比较大。 但目前进入经销商开始亏损的阶段，产业整体价值链在收缩，其他白酒出现普遍性亏损，类似其他周期品全行 业现金流成本开始亏损、甚至最龙头的企业现金流也开始亏损。头部白酒公司生存能力足够强，不会亏损，但 产业链出现亏损时，他们也会有库存出清的阶段。 处于这样的周期调整阶段，我们可以观察 ...