文｜谢忠涛 国内某战略咨询机构酒水营销策略顾问 周期永不眠，而理解它、顺应它，或许正是白酒行业在这个时代转换关口，所能获得的最高维度的"战略红利"。 当我们看清周期更迭的轨迹，便会明白：所有的蛰伏与等待，都是为了在恰当的时机，为值得的人举杯。 《快消品渠道竞争》一书作者 什么是"康波周期" 世界经济的50年潮汐 一个俄罗斯经济学家的远见 在谈论技术革命、经济浪潮甚至人生财富时，很少有人会想到一位名叫尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫（Nikolai Kondratiev）的俄罗斯经济学家。 然而，正是他在将近一百年前，透过动荡时代的迷雾，洞察到了世界经济运行中一个惊人而深远的规律——长周期波动。 20世纪20年代，康德拉季耶夫系统分析了西方资本主义国家长达百多年的经济数据，包括价格、利率、生产和消费等系列指标。 寒冬已至，酒业亦难独善其身。库存压力、价格波动、消费疲软……这些话题已被反复咀嚼，市场的情绪也在一遍遍的重复中渐趋麻木。但或许，我们焦 虑的根源并非行业本身，而是我们仍在用旧尺子：库存、房价、短期动销丈量一个正在剧变的未来。 是时候换一把刻度更大的尺子了。这把尺子，叫做康德拉季耶夫周期，即康波周期。 它告诉我们，经 ...

每逢佳节倍思"饮"，今年的中秋国庆双节却给白酒行业泼了一盆冷水。动销同比下滑15%-20%的预测让不少投资者望而却步，但有趣的是，我注意到一些不 同寻常的资金动向。这让我想起马克·吐温那句名言："历史不会重复，但总会押韵。"十年前那个同样不被看好的白酒淡季，后来发生了什么？让我们用数 据说话。 把同样的分析方法用在当前的白酒板块上，会发现几个耐人寻味的现象： 1. 高端酒分化明显：某些品牌虽然终端价格倒挂，但批发环节的资金活跃度反而提升 2. 区域龙头异动：三家地方酒企的渠道数据与股价出现背离 中信证券的研报将当前称为"行业最为艰难的时期"，这让我想起2013年的塑化剂风波。当时几乎所有分析师都在唱空白酒，但量化数据却显示机构资金在悄 悄布局茅台。如今历史似乎在重演——虽然渠道库存高企、价格倒挂严重，但我跟踪的系统显示，部分区域龙头酒的交易活跃度正在逆势攀升。 这种背离很有意思。就像在嘈杂的菜市场里，普通人听到的都是讨价还价的喧闹，而训练有素的采购员却能捕捉到某个摊位突然增加的批发量。现在的白酒 板块正是如此：表面看是动销疲软，但某些特定价位段的产品正在形成资金共识。 今年8月半导体行情的爆发给我上了生动一课 ...

第三波：实体寒冬——消费电子与大众消费品"以价换量"的无奈 放眼望去，无论是新款手机、平板电脑、家用电器，还是日常的服装、零食，"促销"、"满减"、"骨折价"的标签无处不在，闪烁着诱人的光芒。这看似是消 费者的狂欢，实则是企业端"以价换量"的无奈之举，繁荣背后暗藏着隐忧。 凛冬将至，经济寒流暗涌。十月的瑟瑟秋风，不仅仅带来季节的更迭，更预示着一场深刻的价格重构正在席卷市场。四股强劲的"降价潮"，如同四面楚歌， 将不同人群推向截然不同的境地，有人欢欣鼓舞，有人如坠冰窟。 第四波：社交密码失效——高端白酒与奢侈品的"祛魅" 曾经象征着身份与地位的高端白酒和奢侈品，如今在二手市场和非官方渠道的价格却悄然松动。这不仅仅是单纯的商品降价，更折射出社会心态的微妙转 变，是"送礼经济"退潮的先兆。 那些注重性价比、追求理性消费的实力买家，对此乐见其成。他们终于可以摆脱品牌溢价的束缚，以更合理的价格，触摸到曾经遥不可及的"身份象征"，商 品的真实使用价值正在回归。 然而，那些习惯于依赖"人情社会"和"圈子文化"的特定群体，却因此倍感焦虑。当名酒名包不再是社交场合的硬通货，其背后所维系的关系网络和办事逻辑 也随之动摇。他们需要 ...

Core Insights - The mooncake market is experiencing growth with a wider price range and accelerated product innovation, catering to various consumer budgets and preferences [1][2][4] - Mid to low-priced innovative products are particularly favored by consumers, with a notable example being the 京趣 "抱富黄金大饼," which became the top-selling item at under 30 yuan [2][4] - Traditional brands remain popular, with products like 五芳斋 and 美心 leading sales, while the market is shifting towards lighter, experience-focused gifting options [4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The mooncake market is characterized by a trend towards "light gift boxes" and "heavy experiences," with over 90% of sales coming from gift boxes priced below 200 yuan [4] - There is a growing consumer preference for health-conscious and personalized gifts, reflecting a shift in gifting culture even during traditional festivals [4][5] Group 2: Retail Strategies -物美 is enhancing its retail strategy by integrating online and offline experiences, with the multi-point APP offering engaging gift recommendations and renovated stores providing immersive shopping experiences [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structures and enhancing consumer experiences through thematic displays and expanded fresh food offerings [1][5][7]

Consumption - Overall consumption shows improvement, driven by seasonal effects and low base from last year[6] - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes have rebounded, with absolute values at the same level as the average for the same period[6] - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in premium alcohol sales[6] Investment - Infrastructure special bond issuance has accelerated, with a total of CNY 3.66 trillion issued this year, marking the fastest pace since 2020[16] - Real estate sales have shown seasonal recovery, with new home transaction areas in 30 cities increasing, although this is influenced by the holiday effect[16] - Land market cooling is evident, with land transaction area declining and premium rates dropping to 2.18%[16] Trade and Production - Export prices have been affected by tariff policy changes, with domestic export freight rates decreasing by 0.5%[19] - Most production sectors are experiencing declines, particularly in power generation and steel, due to weak demand and profit adjustments[19] - Coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased seasonally, reflecting reduced electricity demand as autumn approaches[20] Inventory and Prices - Port coal inventories are at their highest levels for the same period, indicating weak short-term demand from non-electric sectors[30] - Industrial prices are generally rising, with the PPI showing a 0.6% increase, while logistics prices have slightly decreased[33] - The CPI shows a mixed trend, with clothing and transportation prices rising, while food prices, excluding eggs, have generally fallen[33] Liquidity - The RMB has appreciated moderately, with the exchange rate moving from 7.1224 to 7.1125 against the USD, supported by changes in interest rate differentials[35] - The central bank's net liquidity injection was CNY 562.3 billion, maintaining reasonable liquidity levels[35]

Group 1 - The overall consumption is improving, with notable increases in automobile retail and wholesale volumes, as well as high-end liquor prices due to seasonal demand and base effects [1] - Service consumption indicators such as urban population mobility and movie box office revenues are also showing improvement, although the inter-city migration index has turned negative year-on-year [1] - Investment in infrastructure is seeing a rapid issuance of special bonds, while the decline in project contract amounts is narrowing; real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, but the land market is cooling down and construction starts remain low [1] Group 2 - In terms of trade, domestic port freight rates have decreased due to tariff policy disruptions [1] - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with sectors like power generation and steel adjusting due to demand or profit influences [1] - Inventory levels are primarily focused on replenishment, with industrial prices rising and CPI showing a differentiated trend [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index has slightly increased, while the Chinese yuan has appreciated moderately [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in the segmented food index (H30016) is attributed to policy impacts, demand slowdown, and market sentiment, with the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at a low of 21.12, reflecting a 10.18% percentile over the past decade [1][3]. Market Performance - The white liquor industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a consumption index of 47.14 indicating weak demand in the first half of 2025, below the critical threshold of 50 [1]. - The retail sales growth rate for consumer goods in August 2025 has also declined, influenced by the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy and slow recovery in consumer demand [2]. Valuation Insights - The current P/E ratio of 21.12 is not only at a historical low but also significantly below the long-term industry average, indicating that the valuation is cheaper than 90% of the time in the past [3]. - The food and beverage sector's market capitalization has decreased due to valuation contraction, with a P/E drop of 19.9% from the end of 2023, suggesting potential for future recovery [4]. Analyst Outlook - Several brokerage firms maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the food and beverage sector, with suggestions that the white liquor sector may have entered a bottoming phase, particularly with the upcoming consumption peaks during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [5]. - Analysts from various firms note that while the timing of demand recovery remains uncertain, there are signs of improvement in the industry, with normal social gatherings and events beginning to recover [5]. Long-term Perspective - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually emerge from its low point in the latter half of the year, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving the macroeconomic environment [7]. - The upcoming festive seasons are seen as critical periods for assessing the strength of consumption recovery, with positive signals already emerging from the recovery of bottle sales driven by social events [7]. - The low valuation of the segmented food index reflects market pessimism, and any improvement in fundamentals could act as a catalyst for valuation recovery [7]. - Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation stocks with dividend growth potential, considering both economically cyclical stocks and sectors still benefiting from favorable conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive investment strategies, particularly during market downturns, where opportunities to acquire undervalued assets arise [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach focuses on understanding business models and identifying companies with strong economic moats, rather than chasing market trends or hot sectors [4][5] - The concept of "buying businesses" versus "trading stocks" is highlighted, with a preference for long-term value creation through business growth [4] - The investment strategy is characterized by a deep understanding of the business's competitive advantages and the ability to assess the sustainability of these advantages over time [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article discusses the semiconductor industry, particularly the analog chip sector, which is seen as a stable and growing market due to its wide-ranging applications across various sectors [8][9] - The analog chip market is described as having high customer stickiness and low cost proportion, leading to stable demand and significant barriers to entry for new competitors [8] - The shift towards domestic suppliers in the semiconductor industry is noted as a significant opportunity for growth, driven by changes in global trade dynamics [9] Group 3: Case Studies - A specific case is presented where a leading domestic analog chip design company saw its market value drop significantly, providing a buying opportunity for the fund manager [9] - The fund manager's strategy involved accumulating shares during price declines, leading to substantial gains when the market recovered [9] - The article also highlights the fund manager's approach to high-end liquor stocks, where decisions to buy or sell were based on valuation rather than market trends [12][13] Group 4: Market Outlook - The fund manager expresses confidence in finding undervalued opportunities despite overall market valuations not being low, indicating a belief in the potential for significant returns in the long run [15] - The article concludes with a positive outlook on the investment landscape, suggesting that current market conditions may present unique opportunities for value investors [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive investment strategies, particularly during market downturns, highlighting the need for deep research and decisive action when high-quality assets are undervalued [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is defined as "value-oriented management," focusing on understanding the intrinsic value of companies rather than merely trading stocks [2]. - A distinction is made between "buying businesses" and "trading stocks," with the former being the hallmark of true value investors [2]. - The emphasis is on identifying companies with strong competitive advantages and understanding their business models deeply [3]. Business Characteristics - The article describes a good business using the terms "long slope, thick snow, slow change," indicating that the industry should be sustainable, profits should be substantial, and the company's competitive edge should remain stable [4]. - The semiconductor industry, particularly analog chips, is highlighted as a sector meeting these criteria due to its broad downstream demand and high customer loyalty [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The article notes a shift in the global trade landscape, presenting opportunities for domestic semiconductor companies as they seek to replace foreign suppliers [5]. - The investment strategy involves waiting for the right moment to invest when the market undervalues quality companies, as illustrated by a case where a leading domestic analog chip company saw its market cap drop significantly before a rebound [5]. Case Studies - The article discusses the investment in high-end liquor stocks, where the manager sold out during a price surge due to insufficient return potential, only to reinvest when prices became attractive again [6][7]. - The high-end liquor market is characterized by strong brand loyalty and pricing power, making it a good long-term investment despite short-term volatility [7][8]. Conclusion - The article concludes with a reflection on the importance of understanding business models and long-term value to navigate market fluctuations effectively, reinforcing the idea that downturns can present valuable investment opportunities [8][9].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with a sharp decline in European and American stock markets, reminiscent of the global market crash in April. However, the current situation is more complex than before [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was shocking, with only 70,000 jobs added and previous months' data revised down by 250,000, leading to a 90% error margin. This unexpected data has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 75% [1][3] - Northbound capital saw a net purchase of 68 billion yuan in July, marking a new high for the year, while the margin financing balance exceeded 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating that new capital is quietly positioning itself [1][3] Group 2 - The market at the 3600-point level has become a battleground for bulls and bears, with significant trading volume masking the reality of capital rotation among existing funds. The rapid sector rotation is evident, with broker stocks surging one day and funds quickly shifting to semiconductors [3][5] - Current policies differ from those in 2015, focusing on precise measures rather than broad liquidity injections. The central government's crackdown on low-price competition has included new energy sectors in supply-side reforms [3][5] - Policy benefits are reflected in the stock market, with steel and coal stocks seeing over 20% gains in two months, as leading companies previously affected by competition are now experiencing profit and valuation recovery [3][5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified along three main lines: 1. Technology growth stocks, with significant order increases in AI and semiconductor sectors [5] 2. Cyclical stocks benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as rising aluminum prices and improved performance from companies like Zijin Mining and China Shenhua [5] 3. Consumer sector expectations, with a shift towards high-growth segments like functional beverages and pet food, while traditional high-end liquor sales remain flat [5] Group 4 - Risks are present, particularly during the earnings season, with some companies facing severe declines due to performance issues. For instance, a solid-state battery concept stock plummeted 40% in a week due to low production yield [7] - Foreign capital has been more aggressive than expected, with significant investments in companies like CATL and upgrades in ratings from major financial institutions [7] - The market is undergoing a transformation, with new regulations limiting large-scale sell-offs and a decrease in IPO approval rates, indicating a gradual resolution of liquidity risks [7][8] Group 5 - The most dangerous speculation involves high-leverage investments in thematic stocks, with some companies trading at unsustainable price-to-earnings ratios. A focus on "three low assets" (low valuation, low attention, low chip pressure) is recommended for safer investments [8] - The market's direction will depend on two catalysts: the financial opening details to be released at the Lujiazui Forum on August 18 and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could trigger a global risk-on mode [8] - The market sentiment is shifting, as evidenced by record high holdings in call options for the 50ETF and a significant short-covering ratio among hedge funds [8]