Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash increases as maintenance resumes and the operating rate rebounds, while the terminal demand is average. The factory inventory of soda ash declines but remains at a historical high. The basis indicates futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [2]. Influence Factors Summary - **Likely Factors**: The increase in the production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.63% to 1330 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe decreased by 0.76% to 1310 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 37.50% to - 20 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda in Hebei Shahe is 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy soda in East China is 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy soda in North China is - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.44% and is stabilizing and rebounding. The weekly output is 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, and the output is falling from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in the new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 102.69% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate of 75.85% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass is stabilizing, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.22 tons, including 85.71 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [34].

玻璃：传统旺季结束 盘面继续下跌 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：继续下跌 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货小幅反弹后回落，整体下跌趋势仍未改变。供给方面，上周一条产线复产点火，两条产线停产冷 修，日熔量小幅波动。全国厂家库存小幅增加，华北华中库存延续前期拐头向上增长，同比来看华北高于去年，华中维持在同 期高位水平。主销区华东华南整体产销维持相对平稳水平，累库程度不大。煤炭价格继续走弱，煤制气工艺利润得到进一步改 善。需求方面，局部大型加工厂订单稍有好转，深加工订单天数增加明显，但工程订单情况仍然较差，订单天数不及往年。受 制造业优惠政策影响，小板市场成交好于大板。纯碱方面，市场消息多为检修意向，有明确计划的不多，短期内存在产量减少 预期。但结合库存水平和氨碱产能来看，向上反弹空间有限。 后市展望：沙河煤气切改计划属于利空事件。金三银四整体需求成色不佳，传统旺季即将结束，基本面缺乏推涨动力。此 ...