Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to show weakness, with prices under pressure and a lack of significant demand growth [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 11, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is reported at 1230, down 17.14 from the previous working day, a decrease of 1.37%, while the heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1277.14 [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash facilities is stable, maintaining high supply levels, but new order signing is slow, leading to a lackluster market atmosphere [2]. - Downstream purchasing remains focused on essential replenishment, with no significant increase in overall demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [2]. Futures Market - On August 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1326 CNY/ton and closed at 1345 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.67% [5]. - The futures market is experiencing slight upward fluctuations, driven by rising coal prices and improved trading sentiment in the chemical sector, although the fundamental industry conditions have not shown substantial improvement [5]. Future Outlook - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high due to the resumption of maintenance operations, while downstream demand is weak, leading to insufficient market drivers [6]. - The soda ash market is anticipated to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with close attention needed on future facility dynamics and changes in downstream purchasing patterns [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,345 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 110 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,332 yuan/ton to 1,345 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.98%. The low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe remains unchanged at 1,235 yuan/ton. The main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 110 yuan, a change of 13.40% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [28][31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak performance, with prices showing little change across various regions, and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Summary - As of August 1, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash is priced at 1390-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1360-1430 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on August 1 is 1275.71, down 4.29 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.33%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1294.29, down 8.57, a decrease of 0.66% [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains stable, with Inner Mongolia Salt Industry planning maintenance on August 5, while Shilian Chemical and Huainan Debang plan to resume production in early August [2]. - Demand continues to be weak, with downstream companies showing reduced purchasing willingness and adopting conservative procurement strategies [2]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 opened at 1248 CNY/ton and closed at 1256 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.02%. The total open interest is 921,926 contracts, down by 52,098 contracts [5]. - The futures market is under pressure due to overall weak sentiment in the chemical sector, despite some support from inventory reduction [5]. Market Outlook - In the coming week, as previously maintained facilities gradually resume operations, supply is expected to increase. However, the cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers may limit acceptance of high-priced products [6]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a strong expectation at the beginning of the week to a more cautious outlook, with prices likely to remain volatile and subject to flexible adjustments [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soda ash futures has seen a decline exceeding 5% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has faded; alkali plant maintenance is less, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1420 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1316 yuan/ton, the basis is 104 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamental supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish**: The peak summer maintenance season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract dropped from 1440 yuan/ton to 1316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 20 yuan/ton to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 620% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 87 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has continued to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, regulatory tightening has increased market volatility. The glass market showed a strong overall trend this month, with significant rebounds driven by raw material support and policy stimuli, but ended the month with a sharp decline due to exchange supervision following rapid short - term price increases [1][5]. - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47]. Summary by Directory Glass Market Review - This month, the glass market showed a strong overall trend. Driven by raw material support and continuous policy stimuli, glass prices rebounded significantly. However, at the end of the month, rapid short - term price increases led to exchange supervision and a sharp decline [5]. Valuation - Basis - The average spot price in July was 1,103 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to 1,063 yuan/ton in June. The price fluctuated upward. The average price of the futures 09 contract in July was 1,108 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton compared to 994 yuan/ton in June. The basis narrowed slightly, and market sentiment cooled slightly at the end of the month [10]. Valuation - Arbitrage - The average spread between the main soda ash and glass contracts weakened compared to the previous month, and there is still downward pressure in the later period. The 9 - 1 spread of glass slightly narrowed, and the sentiment for far - month contracts increased significantly. The overall C - structure was maintained [15]. Valuation - Profit - The average production profit of each production line fluctuated at a low level, and the industry's pressure continued. Coal - based production may gradually become the cost reference, but short - term industry profits slightly recovered. In the medium - term, the exit trend may still continue [20]. Drivers - Capacity and Operation - Overall, capacity and operation remained stable at a low level [21]. Drivers - Real Estate Front - end - The real estate front - end demand has not improved significantly. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year [46]. Drivers - Real Estate Back - end There is no specific summarized information provided in the text. Drivers - Automobile - There are data on monthly and cumulative year - on - year changes in automobile production and sales, but no specific analysis is provided in the text. Drivers - Inventory - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. Drivers - Apparent Consumption (Estimated) There is no information provided about the drivers - apparent consumption (estimated). Viewpoints and Strategies - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is expected to be weakly operating [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rose significantly, forming a resonance with raw materials such as coal and soda ash. Driven by strong macro - sentiment and policy documents, the market was overbought. The supply decreased slightly with a cold - repair of one production line and a decline in daily melting volume. Both main production and sales areas saw inventory drops. The market demand improved, but the downstream terminal's willingness to stockpile remained low. The soda ash market also had more supply than actual demand, with limited upside potential. As the end - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, the 08 - contract positions are higher than usual, and spot goods in the hands of spot - futures traders need to be sold. It is expected that the market will correct from its high level, and participation is not recommended without physical goods [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures rose last week, with supply decreasing slightly and inventory dropping in major areas. Market demand improved, but downstream terminal stocking willingness was low. Soda ash supply exceeded demand. End - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, and it's expected that the market will correct from its high [2] - Operating Strategy: Weakly operating [2][3] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of July 25, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (+90), 1,190 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (+40). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1,362 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [9][10] - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of July 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,440 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,362 yuan/ton, with a spread of 78 yuan/ton (-57) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 09 contract was - 162 yuan/ton (-171), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+20) [14] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,594 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 314 yuan/ton (+18) [15] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,154 yuan/ton (+30), and the gross profit was 96 yuan/ton (+60) [19] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,108 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 82 yuan/ton (+68) [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 157,755 tons/day (-1,100), with 223 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600T/D was cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,189.6 million weight boxes (-304.3). North China's inventory was 815.3 million weight boxes (-50.4); Central China's was 663 million weight boxes (-75.7); East China's was 1,370.3 million weight boxes (-36.2); South China's was 1,025.6 million weight boxes (-19.4); Southwest's was 1,171.4 million weight boxes (-47.3); and Shahe's factory inventory was 115 million weight boxes (-61) [27][34] 07 Deep - processing - On July 24, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 126% (+35%). On July 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-0.5%). In mid - July, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (-0.2) [36] 08 and 09 Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 145,000 and a year - on - year increase of 287,000. Sales were 2.904 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 218,000 and a year - on - year increase of 352,000. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales in June were 1.111 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [48] - Real Estate: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2%; new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%); construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%); and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). From July 14 to July 20, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.37 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In June, real estate development investment was 1.042416 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [57] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (+50), 1,350 yuan/ton in East China (+75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (+75), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (+75) [59] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,440 yuan/ton (+224) [64] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was - 115 yuan/ton (-149) [63] - Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - alkali method cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+9), with a gross profit of - 35 yuan/ton (+48); the co - production method cost was 1,702 yuan/ton (+86), with a gross profit of 18 yuan/ton (+81) [65][67] - Inventory: As of July 25, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8846 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,000), including 1.1224 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 200) and 742,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 40,800). The exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 955 (a month - on - month increase of 665). The apparent demand of light soda ash was 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,900. The apparent demand of heavy soda ash last week was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 105.66%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. In May, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 25.8 days [77][88][94]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract priced at 1190.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.10% increase [1] - Weekly production of soda ash in China decreased to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% decline from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate slightly fell to 81.32%, down 0.89% [2] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons or 2.13% from the previous week, with light soda ash at 805,800 tons and heavy soda ash at 1.0423 million tons [2] Group 2 - East China Futures notes that the glass industry is expected to reduce production due to signals from the Central Financial Committee regarding governance, raising concerns about potential capacity exit in the soda ash market [3] - The soda ash profit margin has decreased week-on-week, with ammonia-soda method profits turning negative and the soda-lime method profits at breakeven [3] - Ningzheng Futures observes that the domestic soda ash market remains weak and fluctuating, with high supply and inventory levels, and downstream enterprises showing low purchasing enthusiasm [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash on different dates, reflecting the market dynamics and trends of these two industries [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass - **Price Changes**: From June 5 to June 12, 2025, the price of 5mm glass plates in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of the 5mm large - plate of Shahe Anquan decreased by 8.0, while the FG09 contract price increased by 18.0 and then decreased by 17.0 on June 12 [1] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods and regions also varied. The profit of North China's coal - fired glass decreased by 6.5 and then increased by 0.4, and the profit of South China's natural gas - fired glass decreased by 20.0 [1] - **Spot and Sales**: The spot price of Shahe traders is around 1104, with average transactions and insufficient spot and futures supply. The low - price of Hubei factories is around 980, with fair transactions. The new spot and futures price is 960, with average transactions. The sales rates in different regions are as follows: Shahe 87, Hubei 105, East China 105, and South China 107 [1] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From June 5 to June 12, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased by 20.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 24.0 and then decreased by 13.0 on June 12 [1] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods in North China increased. The profit of North China's ammonia - soda method increased by 30.0 and then 40.0, and the profit of North China's combined - soda method increased by 65.5 and then 56.4 [1] - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouse is around 1180, and the price in Shahe warehouse is around 1210. The factory warehouses are accumulating inventory, and Yuanxing has over - produced [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience a weak adjustment. The recommended investment strategy is to short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract [2][3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Spot Price Drop, Futures Price Decline - **Futures Price**: In May, the glass futures market continued its downward trend. At the end of May, there was a slight rebound due to the oversupply of soda ash, a suitable soda - glass price difference leading to arbitrage operations, and rumors of cold repairs in Hubei production lines. Subsequently, large - scale ignition and resumption of production, along with the increase in inventory during the off - season, caused the main contract to fall below 1000. As of May 30, the glass 09 contract closed at 982 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18 [3][85]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1180 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1100 yuan/ton in Central China (down 10 yuan), and 1300 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged) [13]. - **Price Differences**: As of May 30, the soda - glass price difference was 217 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan), the basis of the 09 contract was 68 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [14]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Weakening Costs, Declining Profits - **Imports and Exports**: In March, China imported 475,300 weight - cases of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 44.78%) and exported 1,721,800 weight - cases (a year - on - year increase of 141.52%). There was an increase in the demand for some high - end glass abroad [21]. - **Profits**: The cost and selling price of glass both decreased, leading to weaker profits. The cost of natural gas production was 1603 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 303 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan); the cost of coal - gas production was 1148 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of 32 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan); the cost of petroleum coke production was 1159 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 59 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [24][27]. - **Supply**: As of last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,205 tons/day (up 1800 tons). In May, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, and 3 were restarted after ignition. The national inventory remained at a high level, with the inventory in North China and Central China increasing at the end of the month [29][30][31]. - **Inventory**: As of May 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67,662,000 weight - cases (down 107,000 weight - cases). The inventory in North China was 9,598,000 weight - cases (up 177,000 weight - cases), in Central China was 7,658,000 weight - cases (down 76,000 weight - cases), in East China was 15,700,000 weight - cases (up 5,000 weight - cases), and in South China was 10,521,000 weight - cases (down 39,000 weight - cases) [31]. - **Deep - processing**: The orders of glass deep - processing were less than in previous years. As of May 30, the average national production - sales ratio of float glass was 98.8% (down 5.63%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 50.2% (unchanged), and in mid - May, the number of days of glass deep - processing orders was 10.4 days (up 0.1 day) [37][40][41]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 vehicles), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 231,000 vehicles). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 905,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [51]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In April, China's real estate completion area was 25.8758 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 28%), sales were basically flat year - on - year, and other indicators decreased by more than 20%. New construction was 48.3938 million square meters (down 22%), construction was 66.0961 million square meters (down 27%), and commercial housing sales were 63.9239 million square meters (down 3%). From May 18th to May 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.28 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 8%). In April, real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [56]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Spot Price**: As of May 30, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1440 yuan/ton in East China (down 10 yuan), 1400 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1575 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1199 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan), and the basis in Central China was 201 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan) [58][63]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Profits**: As of the end of the month, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1443 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), with a gross profit of 67 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the cost of the joint - production process was 1635 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), with a gross profit of 215 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [65]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 685,100 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,300 tons), including 369,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9800 tons) and 315,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 11,500 tons). The loss was 180,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,300 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2062 (a week - on - week increase of 1915). As of May 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons), including 806,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons) and 818,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons) [80]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 407,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons), and for light soda ash was 329,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 30,100 tons). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 107.66% (a week - on - week increase of 2.36%). In April, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 24.2 days [82]. 3. Investment Strategy: Strong Supply, Weak Demand, Short on Rebounds - **Main Logic**: In May, the glass futures market continued to decline. At the end of the month, there was a slight rebound, but then the main contract fell below 1000 due to factors such as production resumption and inventory increase. In June, there is a plan to restart the first line of Shahe Xinli, and the supply remains loose. Considering high - temperature rainfall, previous ignition, and coal costs, glass prices are still suppressed, lacking the impetus for a significant rebound. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 1000 mark after two confirmations, indicating that the short - side power still dominates. - **Operation Strategy**: Short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract, and partially take profits on previous short positions [3][85].