国投安信期货：纯碱反弹高空思路对待 假期库存延续上涨态势。氨碱法和联碱法小幅亏损，供给高位运行。下游消耗节前库存为主，观望情绪 浓，浮法节前产能小幅下滑，耗碱缩减，光伏产能窄幅波动。长期仍面临供需过剩压力，反弹高空思路 对待，待跌至成本附近离场观望。 机构 核心观点 银河期货 纯碱短期震荡偏强为主 国投安信期货 纯碱反弹高空思路对待 宁证期货 预计纯碱短期震荡偏弱 银河期货：纯碱短期震荡偏强为主 供应高位徘徊，纯碱日产稳定至11万吨以上，阿碱总产增加，和邦技改预计停车一段时间。需求端，节 中累库不多，需求表现有韧性。浮法日熔量14.8万吨，光伏日熔8.7万吨不变，重碱下游有继续缓慢收缩 可能。上期下游玻璃企业原材料32%的样本，厂区23.7天，下降0.2天。成本端，中国联碱法纯碱理论利 润(双吨)为-32元/吨，氨碱法纯碱理论利润-89元/吨。节前纯碱已提前下跌计价部分节后预期，目前跌至 支撑位震荡，预计节后可能先涨后跌。短期震荡偏强为主。 宁证期货：预计纯碱短期震荡偏弱 2月25日盘中，纯碱期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1192.00元。截止发稿，纯碱主力合约 报1189.00元，涨幅2.41%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of soda ash is likely to remain weak due to the expected post - holiday inventory build - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, which will continue to put pressure on the market [5]. - The spread between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts may run weakly in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - The main contract 05 of soda ash continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, with the price center moving down. As of Thursday, the closing price of soda ash 2603 contract was 1118 yuan/ton, and that of soda ash 2605 contract was 1162 yuan/ton [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has become dull, with more shipments and less new orders. As of now, the heavy - soda price in North China is 1190 - 1300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton. The light - soda price in East China is 1160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The basis of soda ash 05 contract has strengthened. As of Thursday, the basis of North China heavy - soda 05 contract is about 58 yuan/ton, and that of Central China heavy - soda 05 contract is about - 12 yuan/ton. The spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts has adjusted downward. As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts is - 44 yuan/ton, and that between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts is - 67 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the spreads are likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash start - up rate rebounded this week. As of February 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 85.18%, a 1.93% increase from last week. The soda ash output continued to rise. As of February 12, the soda ash output was about 79.23 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from last week. The domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 78.54 tons, a 6.5% increase from last week, and the overall shipment rate was about 99.13% [12][15]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash rebounded this week. The daily melting volume of float glass continued to decline, with the daily output of about 14.8 tons this week, a 1.2% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of float glass increased significantly, and the cold - repair loss continued to increase. The profit of float glass improved [17][21][28]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase. As of February 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 158.80 tons. Considering the demand shrinkage and sufficient supply during the holiday, the soda ash market is expected to face inventory build - up pressure after the holiday [30]. Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to decline slightly. As of February 12, the theoretical profit of domestic dual - process soda ash was about - 32.5 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period, and the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The industry is still in a loss stage [33].

2，现货市场：稳中震荡。企业装置运行稳定，检修较少，产量维持高位徘 徊。下游采购情绪不佳，低价补库，随用随采。 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 16 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走缩口 喇叭，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带中轨线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 15.6 万手，持仓量较昨日减 26489 手；日内最高 1216， 最低 1182，收盘 1192，（较昨结算价）跌 9 元/吨，跌幅 0.75%。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 58 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 15 日，国内纯碱产量 77.53 万吨，环比+2.17 万吨， 涨幅 2.88%。其中，轻碱产量 36.15 万吨，环比+1.24 万吨；重碱产量 41.38 万 吨，环比+0.93 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.82%，上周 84.39%，环比+2.43%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 89.95%，环比-0.46%；联产产能利用率 78.88%，环比+4.77%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is oscillating weakly [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, soda ash production is increasing, demand is average, and the purchasing willingness is weak. With the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there may be a rebound due to interest - rate cut news, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed lower, showing a weakening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened wide, indicating a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 210,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 30,978 lots. The highest price was 1228, the lowest was 1185, and the closing price was 1193, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market was stable with oscillations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably with few overhauls, and production remained at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment was average, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and mainly low - price replenishment [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from 84.39% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the water - cooling and cold - repair of glass production lines [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to increased costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Recently, a glass production line started production, and the cold - repair rhythm slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery of the rigid demand for soda ash. Additionally, there is some short - term support under continuous losses. Overall, with increasing soda ash production, average demand, weak purchasing willingness, and the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although it may rebound due to interest - rate cut news, considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短线震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注 30 均线附近，支撑看前期次低位附近。成交量较 昨日增 11.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 10.1 万手；日内最高 1206，最低 1169，收 盘 1177，（较昨日结算价）跌 32 元/吨，跌幅幅 2.65%。 2，现货市场：偏弱震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，江苏德邦开车，逐步恢复， 供应呈现增加。下游企业观望居多，采购情绪不佳，维持低价补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 73 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 1 日，国内纯碱产量 69.71 万吨，环比-1.47 万吨，跌 幅 2.07%。其中，轻碱产量 32.61 万吨，环比-0.02 万吨；重碱产量 37.1 万吨， 环比-1.45 万吨。综合产能利用率 79.96%，上周 81.65%，环比-1.69%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 79.21%，环比-4.11%；联产产能利用率 72.77%，环比-1.08%。15 家年产能百万吨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 119 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 85.80%，环比-1.68%。虽近 期阿拉善二期新产能投产，但整体行业开工率有所下调，短线供应压力略有所缓 解。 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中继续关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日减 23.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日增 34340 手；日内最高 1203，最低 1176，收盘 1181，（较昨日结 算价）跌 7 元/吨，跌幅 0.59 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a stable yet fluctuating trend, with prices remaining steady across various regions, but overall market sentiment is low due to weak demand from downstream enterprises [2]. Price Analysis - As of October 22, the mainstream prices for light soda ash in North China are between 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1180-1320 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash prices range from 1320-1430 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1300-1390 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on October 22 is 1162.86, a decrease of 1.43 from the previous working day, reflecting a -0.12% change. The heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1210 [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1211 CNY/ton and closed at 1223 CNY/ton on October 22, showing a daily increase of 1.33%. The highest price during the day was 1230 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 1205 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,390,463 contracts, a decrease of 924 contracts [5]. - The slight rebound in soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by a strong rebound in oil prices, which has improved overall sentiment in the chemical sector. However, the soda ash market lacks substantial driving factors and is expected to follow market fluctuations [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is still in an adjustment phase, with supply-demand conflicts not effectively alleviated. In the absence of substantial positive support, the market is likely to maintain a stable yet fluctuating pattern, with limited price movement expected. Close attention should be paid to changes in downstream purchasing rhythms and the impact of policy factors on market sentiment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to show weakness, with prices under pressure and a lack of significant demand growth [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 11, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is reported at 1230, down 17.14 from the previous working day, a decrease of 1.37%, while the heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1277.14 [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash facilities is stable, maintaining high supply levels, but new order signing is slow, leading to a lackluster market atmosphere [2]. - Downstream purchasing remains focused on essential replenishment, with no significant increase in overall demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [2]. Futures Market - On August 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1326 CNY/ton and closed at 1345 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.67% [5]. - The futures market is experiencing slight upward fluctuations, driven by rising coal prices and improved trading sentiment in the chemical sector, although the fundamental industry conditions have not shown substantial improvement [5]. Future Outlook - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high due to the resumption of maintenance operations, while downstream demand is weak, leading to insufficient market drivers [6]. - The soda ash market is anticipated to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with close attention needed on future facility dynamics and changes in downstream purchasing patterns [6].

| 规格 | 市场 | 8月4日 | 8月5日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1270-1320 | 1270-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1220-1510 | 1200-1510 | -20/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1210-1360 | 1190-1360 | -20/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1120-1200 | -1060-1200 | -60/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1270-1310 | 1270-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1390-1470 | 1390-1470 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1350-1410 | 1350-1410 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1270-1370 | 1270-1370 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1310-1370 | 1310-1370 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1320-1370 | 1320-1370 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1120-1190 ...