TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5454 | -0. 98% | 0. 07% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5540 | -0. 82% | 1. 28% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5534 | -0.93% | 0. 80% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月坏比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The import cost side provides strong support, and the operation suggestion is to consider taking a small - position long trial [34] Group 3 - Summary According to the Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2601, rebounded strongly from the bottom, and slightly declined after a rapid rise [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of December 11, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,554 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from last week, with the increase rate expanding by 0.76 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,562 yuan/ton, up 2.42% from last week, with the increase rate expanding by 0.96 percentage points [13][34] - **Pulp Import Volume in November**: In November 2025, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8734 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 577.14 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to November increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year [17] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of December 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9817 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%, changing from an increase to a decrease [21] - **European Port Pulp Inventory in October**: In October 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% compared with October 2024. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively month - on - month [25] - **Downstream Pulp Species Operating Rates**: Wastepaper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of December 11, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.44 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 1.02 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 1.80 percentage points; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 0.36 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - Arauco's December pulp export quotes: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 700 US dollars/ton; the price of natural pulp Venus remained unchanged at 620 US dollars/ton; the price of hardwood pulp Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 570 US dollars/ton. International softwood pulp manufacturers have successively announced shutdowns, and the spot market price of imported wood pulp is expected to rise. The actual transaction prices are currently stable, waiting for actual orders to follow up [34]

| | 2025年12月10日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5360 | -0. 48% | -1.80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5500 | -0. 90% | -0. 90% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4716 | 0. 26% | 0. 04% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5436 | -0.51% | -1.27% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 680 | 680 | 0. 00% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5559 | 5559 | 0. 00% | | (美元/吨) | 日芭ぎ鱼 | 540 ...

南华纸浆产业周报 —— 期价波动明显 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月5日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 关注现货价格变动、港口去库存情况，以及浆厂与纸厂停工复产情况。可据此进行行情的即时研判，如现价 延续跌势，港口去库进程良好，则期价可能正式开启下跌行情。 * 远端交易预期 远端上，布针仓单的影响已基本计价，影响偏弱，相反远期仓单的供应存疑，带来一定利好。美联储持续降 息进程可能暂止，宏观情绪相对转弱。国内反内卷的大战略方针之下，政策端随时可以出现利多因素。 1.2 交易型策略建议 【行情定位】 本周的核心因素在于国外浆企关停带来的供应端变动。国外一家大型浆厂宣布关停，另一家浆厂宣布暂时停 产，产能短期会出现相对明显的下滑，从供应角度利好期价走势。使得期价接连两日大涨， 从基本面来看，中国港口库存回落7.1万吨，去库相对明显，仍处于相对高位，给期价的压力持续。 在终端需求方面，下游各类纸种开工负荷率有所回升，需求有所回暖，但基于当前行业整体情况来看，需求 仍处于地位。 纸浆期价在周五有所回落，针叶浆现货市场行情反转 ...

当地时间12月2日，Domtar宣布将永久关闭其位于加拿大BC省狮牌(Crofton)工厂。该决定将使Domtar的纸浆年产量减少约38万吨NBSK针叶浆；芬 林集团约策诺(Joutseno)浆厂自今年6月停产以来，将于2025年12月8日(星期一)正式复产。 纸浆国外市场，加拿大狮牌工厂永久关闭，将减少约38万吨针叶浆产量，部分品牌仓单将于年底注销，供应预期有所收紧，下游文化纸部分出版 订单供货中，市场需求略有改善，纸企毛利润有所回升，期货盘面近期呈区间震荡反弹走势。 山东博汇纸业（600966）股份有限公司发布关于开展期货和衍生品交易的公告，其中提到，公司开展商品期货套期保值业务的品种限于公司及子 公司生产经营相关的原材料品种或产成品，包括纸浆、胶版印刷纸、烧碱等。 国投安信期货： 消息面 机构观点 截至2025年12月4日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量为210.1万吨，较上期去库7.1万吨，环比下降3.3%，库存量在本周期继续呈现小幅去库的走 势，样本港口库存已经连续两周呈现去库走势。 正信期货： 国内港口库存仍在高位，供给偏宽松的局面仍在延续，纸浆需求延续偏弱的情况，下游采购积极性不高。纸浆跌至前低附近 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The paper pulp futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the fluctuations may be large due to the positive factors on the supply side and the tight delivery resources for near - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5458 with a daily increase of 2.44% and a weekly increase of 4.80%; SP2512 was 4772 with a daily increase of 1.23% and a weekly increase of 1.02%; SP2605 was 5506 with a daily increase of 2.61% and a weekly increase of 4.68% [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5450 (unchanged daily, up 0.93% weekly), Russian Needle was 5250 (unchanged daily and weekly), and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 (up 2.27% daily and weekly) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (dollars/ton)**: In December 2025, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 540 (up 1.89% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 590 (unchanged monthly) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 (up 1.87% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (unchanged monthly) [6] Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 (unchanged from September), and that of broad - leaf pulp was 131.8 (down 2.80% from September) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broad - leaf pulp in November 2025, the production was 25.2 on November 27; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 on November 27 [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 217.2 (down 0.1 from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 [6] - **Demand (10,000 tons)**: In November 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.80 on November 27, copper - plate paper was 8.50, tissue paper was 28.49, and white cardboard was 38.40 [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 478 with a quantile level of 0.949, and the Silver Star basis was 678 with a quantile level of 0.896 [6] - **Import Profit**: On December 3, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 109 with a quantile level of 0.45, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 75 with a quantile level of 0.726 [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's November quotes were 550 dollars/ton for broad - leaf pulp Star and 620 dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus. Canadian pulp mills have reduced production [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and double - offset paper has issued price - increase letters again [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory in China's main paper pulp ports was 217.2 tons, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]

研究所 延续下跌，进口成本端仍有支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年11月28日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601延续下跌，跌势略有放缓。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至11月27日，进口针叶浆周均价5464元/吨，周度环比下跌1.85%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4390元/吨，周度环比下跌 0.05%，由涨转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-10月纸浆累计进口量增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国进口纸浆261.8万吨，进口金额为1531.7百万美元，平均单价为585.06美元/吨。1月至10月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.8%、-2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pulp [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,218 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,184 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,400 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton [7] - The ex - factory price of imported wood pulp in November was unclear, with more rumors of price increases. Market players still had a wait - and - see attitude. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, coniferous pulp by 7.1%, and broadleaf pulp by 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 20, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0104 million tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [8] - Downstream base paper prices had limited increases, with most remaining stable. The price increase of white cardboard slowed down. Paper mills faced processing pressure, had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and poor restocking intentions. Supply pressure showed signs of weakening, but downstream profit margins were insufficient, leading to poor cost transmission. Pulp prices fell under pressure at high levels and were expected to fluctuate in a wide range at low levels [8] Group 3: Industry News - A Russian company expressed its willingness to invest in Indonesia's pulp and paper industry. On November 20, 2025, the CEO of Indonesia's Dana Tarra Group met with Russia's Sistema Group. The Indonesian government was ready to promote cooperation between the two sides by matching potential Russian investors with suitable local enterprises. The meeting was in the early stage, and potential investment amounts had not been discussed. Relevant license approvals and technical evaluations were in progress [9]

021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

上期所计划 2025 年中暂停布针品牌针叶浆入库，现有约 22 万吨布针 仓单将在 2025 年底注销 15 万吨，预计 2026 年交割量大幅减少，盘面 价格将锚定更高价品牌，利好高品质纸浆。 近期纸浆期货价格回落，主因实际需求未明显改善，针叶浆港口库存增 加，贸易商套期保值操作加剧现货市场流动性紧张，短期内纸浆市场预 计维持偏弱格局，需关注现货市场成交情况。 文化纸（双胶纸）市场受纸浆期货回调、招标价格低于预期及部分品牌 市价松动影响下跌，但头部企业发布涨价函，盘面或超跌修复，2026 年文化用纸市场预计处于周期低位，静待反弹。 2026 年纸浆行业供应端压力或减小，新增产能约 200 万吨，但终端消 费疲软，需关注投机需求和真实消费传导，港口库存压力较大，上半年 投机需求或不强劲，对国内纸浆期货偏利空。 纸张消费增量主要驱动力为白卡纸和生活用纸，文化用纸增量不明显， 市场大格局或维持区间震荡，新增产能减弱，港口库存较高，文化用纸 对纸浆消费提振有限。 Q&A 纸浆及造纸行业展望 20251124 摘要 近期纸浆期货市场的主要变化和原因是什么？ 最近文化纸（双胶纸）市场从 4,300 元/吨跌至 4,10 ...