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纸浆周报:纸浆底部区间显现,暂无利多驱动-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 08:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotations showed a $20/ton increase in the price of broadleaf pulp Star, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Currently, there has been no significant increase in the production and price of wood pulp paper. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to a reduction in pulp inventory, and overall demand remains weak [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2112,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons or 2.4%. Pulp port inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to above - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Although pulp futures have reached an absolute low, there is no upward driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory still reflects that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. After the delivery of the 09 contract, there was no cancellation of warehouse receipts, and there was no short - term bullish driving force [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the price of softwood pulp remained stable. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5620 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Foreign Quotations**: In September, the price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco's September quotation for softwood pulp Silver Star was $700/ton, and the quotation for broadleaf pulp Star was $540/ton, up $20/ton [16]. - **Position**: The total position of pulp futures decreased. As of September 19, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 33,869 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. The position of the main contract was 166,419 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.36% [18] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total import volume of pulp was 2.877 million tons, a decrease of 5.08% compared with the previous period. The import volume of softwood pulp was 646,000 tons, a decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a decrease of 5.85% [4]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. As of September 18, 2025, China's port pulp inventory was 2.112 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4%. Overseas pulp mill inventory also increased, with the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at 47 days at the end of July [3][38]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4800 yuan/ton, down 3.03% month - on - month; the price of coated paper was 4980 yuan/ton, down 3.3% month - on - month; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3969 yuan/ton, up 0.1% month - on - month [42]. - **Production Volume**: In August 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the production volume of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the production volume of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the production volume of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4% [48]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.23%; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle was - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 298 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 9.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [88]
南华纸浆产业周报:驱动不足,震荡运行-20250919
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 11:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - **Macroeconomics**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - **Options**: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - **Negative Information**: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side Trend and Capital Movement**: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].
永安期货纸浆早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:54
Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 18, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5014.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5042.00, a decrease of 0.55534%. The discount to the US dollar price was 615.54 [3]. - The price trends from September 12 - 18, 2025, showed fluctuations, with the highest closing price of 5068.00 on September 16 and the lowest of 4990.00 on September 12 [3]. Basis and Import Profit - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 18, 2025, was 611, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 636 [3]. - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands: Canadian Golden Lion had an import profit of - 136.75, Canadian Lion had - 485.04, and Chilean Yinxing had - 229.70, all calculated with 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4]. - For paper products, cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper indices), packaging paper (white card index) remained stable from September 15 - 18, 2025, while the living paper index increased by 4 [4]. - The profit margins of different paper products showed slight changes from September 15 - 18, 2025. Double - offset paper profit margin increased by 0.0506, double - copper paper by 0.0459, white card paper by 0.0368, and living paper by 0.0764 [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - wastepaper) showed a decreasing trend from September 12 - 18, 2025 [4].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:51
Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is in a short - term state of relatively abundant supply. The downstream paper mills'开工 has increased, but they mainly purchase at low prices due to cost pressure, and the market continues to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price and closing price of the pulp futures 01 contract were both 5348 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new September wood pulp export price list: the price of softwood pulp Yinxing was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from last month; the price of natural pulp Jinxing was 590 US dollars/ton, the same as last month; the price of hardwood pulp Mingxing was 520 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the European wood pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines has led to an increase in supply, and recently, the inventory pressure of paper enterprises has increased, showing a weak and volatile operation [8] 2. Industry News - On September 17, the China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneurs Association released the "Top 500 Chinese Enterprises in 2025" list. The controlling shareholder of the company, Shandong Sun Holding Group Co., Ltd., ranked 326th, an improvement of 10 places from last year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19]
浆市跟涨意愿不明显 纸浆期货延续低位震荡调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 06:08
机构观点 建信期货: 短期纸浆供应相对充裕,下游纸厂开工有所回升但成本压力下低价采买为主,延续低位震荡调整。 消息面 截止2025年9月11日,中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量:206.2万吨,较上期去库0.4万吨,环比下降 0.2%,库存量在本周期变动不大,呈现窄幅去库的走势。 2025年8月纸浆进口总量265.3万吨,环比-7.8%,同比-5.6%,累计2410.8万吨,累计同比+5.0%。 9月16日,上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单226594吨,环比上个交易日减少186吨;纸浆厂库期货仓单18240 吨,环比上个交易日持平。 国信期货: 业者基于成本面压力持续挺价,浆市跟涨意愿不明显。下游原纸企业利润改善欠佳,持续降本增效,对 于高价接受度有限,逢低采购为主,交投不旺。关注需求企稳情况,操作建议暂时观望。 ...
建信期货纸浆日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pulp Daily [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5308 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5350 yuan/ton, rising 0.79% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco of Chile announced the new September wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at 700 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 70.78 million tons, up 3.5% month - on - month and 11.3% year - on - year; the consumption was 70.08 million tons, down 13.7% month - on - month and up 2.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August were 265.3 million tons, down 7.9% month - on - month and 5.6% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 207.20 million tons, up 0.71% from last week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines led to an increase in supply, but new orders from printing factories were limited, and the market was weak. In the short term, pulp supply was relatively abundant. Although the downstream paper mills'开工 rate increased, they mainly purchased at low prices under cost pressure, and the market continued to fluctuate at a low level [8] Group 3: Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued Announcement No. 21 of 2025, approving the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field. Four were revision projects and two were formulation projects. The release and implementation of these standards improved the papermaking standard system and promoted the healthy development of the industry [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, and inventory data [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆周报:纸浆底部区间显现,暂无利多驱动-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 10:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].
纸浆早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:01
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:09
1. Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,340 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,750 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export quotes: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June quotes. In July, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with a slightly wider decline. With limited cost guidance and ample supply, waiting for peak - season demand, pulp prices are in a low - level oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Industry News - On September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued multiple announcements regarding offset printing paper futures, covering the first batch of delivery warehouses, delivery plants, deliverable commodities, and designated inspection institutions. - On September 4, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the industry and many paper mills implementing a dual strategy of "price increase + shutdown", the upward trend of paper prices may continue. Since September, leading paper companies have adjusted prices. Recently, large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper issued price - increase letters, announcing price hikes for some products in early September. In the first half of this year, among the 23 A - share listed companies in the papermaking industry, only 4 achieved positive net profit growth. Analysts believe that affected by the slowdown in the domestic FMCG consumption growth rate and cautious channel inventory replenishment willingness, the raw paper price has continued to bottom out, and the market is in a deep structural adjustment period [9] 4. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆数据日报-20250904
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between contracts 11 and 1 is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On September 3, 2025, the futures price of coniferous pulp Silver Star (SP2601) was 5324, down 0.37% day-on-day and up 0.64% week-on-week; the spot price was 5720, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of -0.52% [1] - The futures price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle (SP2511) was 5050, up 0.16% day-on-day and 0.80% week-on-week; the spot price was 5200, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of 0.97% [1] - The futures price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish (SP2509) was 4998, up 0.16% day-on-day and 0.68% week-on-week; the spot price was 4200, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of 0.00% [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month-on-month to 5884; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92% to 530; the import cost of Western American Fish increased by 3.87% to 4344; the import cost of Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.72% [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in July 2025 was 135.3 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.30% [1] - The domestic production volume of broadleaf pulp in August 2025 was 20.5 tons; the domestic production volume of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - As of August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The production volume of offset paper in August 2025 was 20.7 tons; the production volume of coated paper was 7.8 tons; the production volume of tissue paper was 27.9 tons; the production volume of white cardboard was 31.1 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 3, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was -164, and the quantile level was 0.368; the basis of Silver Star was -144, and the quantile level was 0.503; the basis of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 670 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 150, and the quantile level was 0.876; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was not provided [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025; Chile's Arauco notified the August quotation, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp Star at $520/ton, and the supply reduced by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at $590/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products remains at a stable level, and some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a de - stocking trend [1]