Group 1 - Institutional funds are strategically positioning themselves for structural opportunities in the market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [1][3] - Notable changes in the top ten shareholders of several listed companies indicate the trading movements of well-known fund managers and foreign institutions, with a focus on potential growth areas [1] - Companies like Shijia Photon and Dongfang Bio have seen significant interest from fund managers, with Shijia Photon’s stock price increasing over 130% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Foreign institutions are increasingly adding positions in A-shares, with Barclays, UBS, and JPMorgan among the new entrants in companies like Jinpu Titanium [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive, with expectations of a mild economic recovery and supportive policies driving interest in technology and consumption-related sectors [3] - Analysts believe that the combination of improved macroeconomic conditions and ongoing policy support will lead to a focus on structural opportunities in the market [3]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, policy signals, and various industry sectors including oil and gas, chemicals, construction materials, and transportation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Signals and Economic Outlook** - The discussion highlights the anticipation of new policy signals before identifying structural opportunities in the market. The recent easing of tariffs between the US and China is noted, although uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations [1][2][3]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade** - In April, the US collected approximately $1-2 billion in additional tariffs from China, which is insufficient to offset the fiscal risks posed by tax cuts. This indicates a potential expansion risk in the US fiscal situation [2]. 3. **Domestic Economic Conditions** - The domestic economy shows signs of slowing down, particularly in exports to the US, which have declined due to tariff tensions. There is a concern that the temporary boost in exports may not be sustainable [3][4]. 4. **Fiscal Policy and Debt Issuance** - The Chinese government has been proactive in fiscal policy, issuing a significant amount of debt to stimulate the economy. Approximately 2 trillion yuan of bonds were issued in the last quarter, with expectations for continued issuance [4][5][6]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The potential for further monetary easing is discussed, especially as inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) are expected to decline. This could provide more room for liquidity support in the economy [7][8]. 6. **Oil and Gas Sector Analysis** - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure, with a noted 18% drop in the previous year. Demand uncertainties, particularly due to US-China trade relations, are highlighted as a significant concern [10][11]. 7. **Construction Materials and Steel Industry** - The construction materials sector is entering a seasonal downturn, with prices under pressure. However, there are expectations for a rebound in demand as the market transitions from a slow to a peak season [24][26]. 8. **Transportation Sector Insights** - The shipping industry has seen a significant price increase, with container shipping rates doubling in the past month. However, a potential decline in demand is anticipated as the rush for shipping eases [31][32]. 9. **Investment Recommendations** - The call suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable fundamentals, particularly in the construction materials and transportation sectors. Specific companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their strong dividend attributes [29][36]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Emerging Opportunities in New Materials** - Companies involved in domestic substitutes for new materials are highlighted as long-term investment opportunities [24]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance** - The performance of small-cap stocks is noted, with fluctuations indicating a lack of strong market direction. However, some stocks have shown resilience and potential for recovery [24]. 3. **Global Economic Factors** - The call acknowledges ongoing global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly in the commodities sector [19][20]. 4. **Sector-Specific Risks** - The chemical sector faces challenges due to demand uncertainties and potential overcapacity, which could hinder price recovery despite favorable cost conditions [11][12]. 5. **Future Monitoring of Policy Changes** - The need for ongoing observation of policy developments, particularly in fiscal and monetary areas, is emphasized as critical for future investment strategies [6][8].

Market Overview - The recent gold market is characterized by a complex interplay of "policy suppression" and "geopolitical support" [1] - COMEX gold futures net long positions have dropped to the lowest level in nearly four quarters, indicating a potential contrarian investment signal [1] - Current gold prices are fluctuating between $3250 and $3300, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the volatile situation in the Middle East [1] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that the RSI is oscillating within the 30-70 range, and the MACD lines are converging, suggesting a balance of bullish and bearish forces [3] - Aggressive investors are advised to short at $3290-$3300 with a target of $3265-$3250, while conservative investors should consider long positions if prices stabilize around $3250-$3260 with an RSI above 30 [4] Fundamental Variables - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 65%, but a de-escalation in the Middle East may suppress safe-haven demand [4] - Key factors to monitor include July's non-farm payroll data and developments regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, which could disrupt the current market balance [4] Platform Selection - Traditional gold investment faces three main challenges: high storage costs, poor liquidity, and lack of transparency [5] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, has developed a differentiated competitive edge through technological innovation [5] - The "spread compensation plan" reduces trading costs by 30%, with spreads as low as $0.15 per ounce during market volatility [5] - The MT4/MT5 platforms ensure millisecond-level order execution, maintaining a slippage rate below 0.5% even during significant price fluctuations [5] - Each trade generates a unique "transaction code" for real-time tracking, ensuring compliance and security for client funds [5] Service Offerings - The platform connects to eight top data sources, ensuring synchronized quotes across major markets, with an annualized arbitrage return potential of 15%-25% [6] - A dual-mode investment option allows investors to convert virtual holdings into physical gold bars, providing a tangible asset during market corrections [6] - A three-dimensional model for extreme market conditions significantly reduces the risk of client liquidation during sharp price declines [7] Trend Outlook - Despite Citigroup's bearish outlook for gold prices in 2026, global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 850 tons in 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is providing solid support for gold prices, with China's official gold reserves increasing for eight consecutive months [8] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals is positioned as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles, leveraging its compliance, fund segregation, and rapid withdrawal services [8]

Group 1 - A500ETF Jia Shi has a turnover rate of 1.12% and a transaction volume of 165 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 3.062 billion yuan over the past month as of July 8 [3] - The scale of A500ETF Jia Shi has increased by 272 million yuan over the past three months, and the number of shares has grown by 1.26 billion shares over the past six months [3] - As of July 8, A500ETF Jia Shi's net value has risen by 7.05% over the past six months, with the highest monthly return since inception being 3.55% and an average monthly return of 2.05% [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index as of June 30 include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, accounting for a total of 20.67% [3] - The market is expected to provide structural opportunities despite the index nearing new highs, with July historically being a strong month for market performance [4] - The central bank is anticipated to have room for rate cuts in the second half of the year, supporting a stable upward trend in A-shares [4] Group 3 - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jia Shi linked fund (022454) for exposure to the top 500 A-share companies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, indicating increased market confidence among major private equity firms [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Major private equity firms express positive expectations for the overall market direction in the second half of the year, highlighting two key trends: a recovery in market trading sentiment and increased differentiation among enterprises, leading to a focus on scarce growth assets [2] - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a new phase with international capital gradually entering, supported by strong competitiveness and resilience in Chinese manufacturing and trade [2] - The liquidity in both mainland and Hong Kong markets is abundant, with a notable divergence between short-term interest rates of the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar, suggesting limited downside risk for the market [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is conducive to bottom-up stock selection, with a focus on high-quality companies that have shown resilience during economic cycles [4] - Investment strategies should consider the structural bull market atmosphere, with significant opportunities for sector rotation and mean reversion, emphasizing the importance of matching valuation with fundamentals [4][5] - The technology and innovation sectors are expected to experience increased internal differentiation, while sectors like renewable energy and traditional food and beverage companies may present mean reversion opportunities [5] Group 3: Specific Investment Opportunities - Major private equity firms are focusing on specific investment themes, including AI-driven entertainment platforms, advanced chip manufacturers, and companies with strong supply chain and brand capabilities [6][7] - Emerging growth assets remain a focal point, with a particular interest in sectors benefiting from technological iterations and brand upgrades, such as the AI industry chain and high-end manufacturing [8] - The potential for significant upside exists for leading companies with cyclical growth attributes, especially if the macroeconomic environment continues to improve [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations in yields, with a focus on whether the 10-year government bond yield can break through previous resistance levels, amid a backdrop of weak economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 2, the interbank bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield stable at 1.30%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.36%, and the 10-year yield at 1.64% [2]. - The bond market remains stable despite seasonal liquidity changes, with experts expressing optimism about the potential for the 10-year yield to break previous resistance levels [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Seasonal liquidity is expected to ease in July, providing a foundation for a potential "bond bull" market, as July typically sees lower funding rates due to weaker credit demand and local government pressure [3]. - Insurance institutions may benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, leading to increased premium income and a higher acceptance of long-term rates [3]. - The net supply of government bonds in the third quarter is projected to be high, with net financing estimated between 2.09 trillion to 2.63 trillion yuan, which could exert pressure on the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the influx of incremental funds from insurance and bank wealth management products [7]. - The ongoing "yield spread" enthusiasm since June is expected to continue, with significant declines in yields for various bond types [8]. - Institutions are advised to maintain a bullish outlook on the bond market, focusing on medium to long-term bonds as the market sentiment is likely to rise again in July [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Core Insights - The total sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first half of 2025 reached 1,836.41 billion yuan, with equity sales amounting to 1,281.27 billion yuan and equity sales area at 65.706 million square meters [1] - The contribution rate of sales performance from first-tier cities increased by 9.0 percentage points to 40.0% year-on-year, indicating significant growth [1] - The sales performance of 20 representative real estate companies is primarily driven by second-tier cities, accounting for 47.8% of their total sales [1] Company Strategies - Real estate companies are focusing their development efforts on core first- and second-tier cities, particularly in high-energy cities with strong industrial support [1] - The investment strategy adopted is "sales-driven investment," emphasizing "mainstream cities and mainstream locations" to ensure high investment returns [1] - Companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, and China State Construction have over 50% of their sales contribution from first-tier cities [1] Market Trends - The top three cities contributing to sales revenue for the first half of the year are Shanghai (16.9%), Beijing (10.6%), and Guangzhou (9.0%) [2] - Shanghai's sales contribution rate increased by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, marking the largest growth among the top 10 cities [2] - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with expectations of continued city differentiation in the second half of the year, indicating structural opportunities in "good cities + good properties" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Group 1 - The current A-share market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally compared to the end of 2014 and early 2019, but a surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, along with simultaneous easing by the People's Bank of China, could act as a catalyst for market sentiment [1] - Active funds are shifting from pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors to technology and finance, indicating a potential stagnation in dividend growth, with structural opportunities being a key topic during the mid-year reporting season [1] - The valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2 - The rebound driven by risk appetite is currently well-developed, and a trend-driven market may need to wait until there are clear turning points in economic fundamentals, incremental policies, and liquidity [2] - The market's downside potential is relatively limited due to the ongoing functions of central financial stabilization funds, with expectations that the A-share index will remain within a wide fluctuation range in the third quarter [2] - Market styles are expected to continue rotating, with previously lagging high-growth sectors showing potential for catch-up [2]