过去几年，辜朝明是国内金融圈绕不过去的一个名字。在股市、楼市的各种鬼故事里， " 日本式的资产 负债表衰退 " 一度是最为撩拨的话题。 但天弘基金的姜晓丽并不跟从这种叙事的引力，她养成了一个新的习惯 —— 每天研读《人民日报》。 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 在探索绝对收益方法论的最开始的起点上，天弘与几乎所有公募绝对收益团队一样，瞄准债券市场，做 好固收投资。可实际上，一旦遇到债券熊市，就算满仓配置货币，还是没有办法抵抗下跌。 通过报刊史料，在微观文本和宏观结构之间建立桥梁，是不少研究中国近现代史的历史学者所常见的方 法。但在投资领域，这条理解宏观的分析路径在大部分时间里称不上主流。 作为债券出身的基金经理，姜晓丽在此前大部分从业时间里也并不是一个会把投资胜率建立在政策分析 上的人。但身处 2022 年的波动中，她明确地感受到，现实世界里一些底层的框架和规律正在发生深刻 的变化： 政策对经济和市场的影响力正在日益增强，政府对特定产业的重视往往决定了市场的方向。 在这种脉络下，权威媒体的印刷物成为了她不能忽视的参考资料，政府对经济运行、产业方向的调整意 图，显露 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the positive outcome of the China-US Geneva trade negotiations, which exceeded market expectations, while acknowledging ongoing uncertainties in tariff discussions [1] - The market has shown a double V-shaped recovery over the past five months, with fixed income plus funds gradually emerging from a low point after facing adjustment pressures [1] - The company aims to provide high-value investment tools that prioritize investor demands for returns and drawdowns, focusing on absolute returns through a solid research and investment approach [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy involves a "core-satellite" approach, maintaining a low valuation, balanced, and diversified portfolio, with a focus on stable core holdings and flexible satellite positions [2] - Strict stock selection criteria are applied, with collaboration among specialized teams to minimize significant losses, ensuring a relatively stable portfolio style [2] - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang fund has achieved an average annualized return of over 6% since its inception, demonstrating resilience in both bull and bear markets [2][4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the long-term growth model of the Chinese economy is shifting from export and investment-driven to consumption-driven, necessitating the activation of domestic demand for new growth momentum [7] - The company will combine macroeconomic environment selection with micro-level company quality assessment, remaining cautious of high valuation sectors while seeking attractive investment opportunities [7] - A commitment to high-quality research and monitoring of positive economic signals is emphasized to create value for investors while adhering to the fixed income plus investment baseline [7] Group 4 - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang Mixed Securities Investment Fund-A has shown consistent performance since its establishment, with annual returns ranging from -2.91% to 18.89% over the years [8] - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang Mixed Securities Investment Fund-C, established in 2020, has also demonstrated varying performance, with a recent one-year return of 7.59% compared to its benchmark [8]

过去几年，辜朝明是国内金融圈绕不过去的一个名字。在股市、楼市的各种鬼故事里， " 日本式的资产 负债表衰退 " 一度是最为撩拨的话题。 但天弘基金的姜晓丽并不跟从这种叙事的引力，她养成了一个新的习惯 —— 每天研读《人民日报》。 通过报刊史料，在微观文本和宏观结构之间建立桥梁，是不少研究中国近现代史的历史学者所常见的方 法。但在投资领域，这条理解宏观的分析路径在大部分时间里称不上主流。 作为债券出身的基金经理，姜晓丽在此前大部分从业时间里也并不是一个会把投资胜率建立在政策分析 上的人。但身处 2022 年的波动中，她明确地感受到，现实世界里一些底层的框架和规律正在发生深刻 的变化： 政策对经济和市场的影响力正在日益增强，政府对特定产业的重视往往决定了市场的方向。 在这种脉络下，权威媒体的印刷物成为了她不能忽视的参考资料，政府对经济运行、产业方向的调整意 图，显露在字里行间。只要自己保持客观、理性且耐心地阅读它们。 对于姜晓丽而言，对宏观政策的重视，是在 " 术 " 的维度上打了补丁。 实际上，在市场的剧烈变动、底层逻辑的转型变化里，整个天弘 混合资产团队也愈发对资产配置的 " 道 " 有了更深刻的体会。 由此 ...

2025年以来，各项宏观政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推进，经济呈现向好态势。5月，央行宣布降准降息，同时实 施定向降息政策，降低小微企业和科技创新企业融资成本。这一系列操作标志着货币政策宽松窗口正式开启，主要对 冲外部经贸环境压力并提振内需。值得关注的是，近日中美互降关税纷纷落地，市场整体已经修复到加征关税之前的 水平，投资者风险偏好有望持续提升。 在此市场环境下，兼具稳健性和收益性的二级债基，正日益成为追求稳健收益投资者的核心配置选择。据悉，国联基 金旗下新产品——国联稳健增益债券将于5月19日起正式发行。该产品定位为追求绝对收益的低波动"固收+"策略产 品，通过严谨的风险控制和积极主动的资产配置，力争为投资者实现持续稳健的投资回报。 规模与长跑业绩双升 避险属性获验证 近年来，二级债基发行市场持续升温，在2025年一季度新发债基数量有所减少的情况下，二级债基呈现爆发式增长。 根据中信证券的研报，混合债券型二级基金平均募集规模达20.64亿元，同比增幅35.6%，总规模环比增长13.59%。 （数据来源：中信证券《2025年一季度公募基金市场研究报告》（发布日期：2025年4月5日）。） 根据公开资料，郑玲 ...

导读：绝对回报正在成为基金产品越来越重要的投资目标。 根据中国证券基金业协会的数据，截至2025年3月底公募基金总规模达到32.22万亿元，连续两个月站稳32万亿大关。其中 具有理财替代属性的货币基金和债券基金分别达到了13.3万亿和6.41万亿，成为了过去一年公募基金规模增量的重要来 源。 对于大众理财来说，公募基金已经成为了主要的投资渠道。与此同时，理财替代下的绝对收益也成为了投资者最重要的投 资目标。无论是买股票型基金、股债混合基金、货币基金还是QDII基金，持有人都希望实现财富的保值增值。 另一方面，满足大众理财目标的难度也在提高。特别是随着债券收益率的下行，纯债类资产能提供的收益变得有限，股票 权益又天然具有高波动的属性，再加上过去传统的相对收益考核方式。作为产品生产方的基金公司，又如何满足用户的需 求呢？ 数据来源：有知有行《2024中国大类资产投资年报》 从长期年化收益率的角度看，债券+股票搭配而成的"固收+"组合确实能带来比纯债更高的收益回报。然而，由于股票权益 的高波动特点，会导致某些年份股债混合变成了"固收-"的结果。 对于购买"固收+"的投资者来说，他们是带着绝对收益的投资目标，希望通过 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategies and opportunities for bank wealth management in the context of high market volatility, emphasizing the need for diversified asset allocation and risk management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Bank wealth management institutions should adopt a top-down approach to achieve "absolute return" goals, considering asset value and macroeconomic cycles for diversified allocation [2][3]. - Collaboration with fund companies can enhance the ability to identify alpha opportunities through long-term insights into individual stocks and industries [3]. - The focus should be on clear risk-return characteristics in equity tools, such as ETFs, to optimize asset allocation [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Challenges - The current low level of equity investment in bank wealth management is attributed to the industry's developmental stage, with many clients still viewing these products as savings alternatives [2][3]. - The volatility in equity markets presents challenges for achieving medium to long-term value investments, necessitating alignment with clients' risk tolerance [2][3]. Group 3: Multi-Asset and Multi-Strategy Solutions - A core framework based on target volatility can guide the assembly of multi-asset and multi-strategy solutions, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions [4][5]. - The development of strategies based on volatility, such as convertible bonds and quantitative interest rate strategies, is crucial for enhancing returns while controlling risk [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global financial landscape is characterized by increasing uncertainty, with rising public debt levels and potential de-leveraging processes in major economies [6]. - Domestic financial institutions are encouraged to manage volatility and engage in diversified global market participation to mitigate risks associated with global uncertainties [6]. - The focus on stable income-generating assets, such as domestic bonds and dividend-paying stocks, is essential for achieving reliable returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion at the strategy meeting highlighted the investment opportunities in the bank wealth management market amidst high volatility, emphasizing the importance of equity investments as a tool for enhancing returns within a "fixed income plus" framework rather than solely focusing on equity products [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity investment scale of wealth management companies is projected to reach approximately 830 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with an equity asset investment ratio of about 2.58%, indicating a low level of engagement [3]. - The proportion of R1 and R2 risk-rated products has increased from 88.7% in 2022 to 95.7% by the end of 2024, reflecting a continued low risk appetite among wealth management clients [3]. - Zhang Changbin proposed three strategies to enhance equity investment: product positioning, investment vehicles, and capability building [3][5]. Group 2: Product Positioning - Wealth management should focus on absolute return-enhanced fixed income products and low-mix products as the primary means for expanding the scale of equity-inclusive wealth management products [4]. - The development of products should include clearer risk-return characteristics to help investors understand the nature of the products [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Vehicles - Passive investment is seen as a crucial breakthrough for wealth management funds entering the market, with the public ETF market exceeding 4 trillion yuan, providing a comprehensive asset coverage [4][5]. - Other flexible investment vehicles include private placements, new stock funds, and REITs, which can offer stable dividends and inflation protection [4][5]. Group 4: Capability Building - The investment research teams in wealth management companies are generally weak, and enhancing research capabilities is essential for effective equity investment [5]. - Companies should focus on building a layered research framework and strengthen external collaborations with public funds and financial technology firms [5]. Group 5: Multi-Asset Multi-Strategy Products - Multi-asset multi-strategy products aim for diversified income sources by leveraging low or negative correlations between assets to control volatility [6]. - Recommendations include reflecting the weight of various assets in performance benchmarks and clearly communicating multi-asset strategies to clients [8]. Group 6: Market Conditions and Recommendations - The current global financial market is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, necessitating a cautious approach to asset allocation [9]. - For investors with low risk tolerance, it is advisable to choose short-term cash management products during uncertain periods before reallocating to higher-risk assets when trends become clearer [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant adjustments made by fixed-income fund managers in response to the volatility in the bond market during the first quarter, emphasizing the need for a shift in investment strategies to focus on absolute returns and risk control [1][4][6] Group 2 - In the first quarter, there was an increase in the allocation of interest rate bonds and a decrease in credit bonds among actively managed fixed-income funds, with the proportion of interest rate bonds rising from 41.54% to 42.86% and credit bonds falling from 54.63% to 53.12% [2][3] - The shift towards interest rate bonds is attributed to the structural preference in the issuance market and the desire for better liquidity amid significant market fluctuations [2][3] Group 3 - Fund managers are advised to adopt a non-linear thinking approach in bond investment strategies, focusing on enhancing asset liquidity and adjusting the duration of asset holdings to better navigate market volatility [4][5] - There is a strong demand for stable, short- to medium-term bonds with secure coupon values, while certain convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds are seen as having good investment potential [5][6] Group 4 - The second quarter is expected to witness a peak in government project bond issuance, with anticipated supportive monetary policies, including potential rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [6] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive, with expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [6]

超额（相对）收益与绝对收益真的是不可兼得的鱼和熊掌吗？长期主义者会给出不一样的答案——可持续 的超额（相对）收益本质上是绝对收益的时间积分形态。 物理学家费曼说："量子力学之所以难以理解，是因为我们总用经典世界的语言描述它。"资本市场同样如 此——当投资者用线性思维理解非线性的收益获得机制，必然陷入认知困境，如粒子位置与动量不可同时 精确测定一样。 在投资领域同样存在"风险、收益、可持续性"的不确定性三角 ： ★ 宣称高绝对收益者，往往承受隐性尾部风险（长期资本管理公司的陨落）； ★ 标榜可持续性者，常以牺牲收益锐度为代价（固定收益类产品的平庸回报)； ★ 追求超额收益者，难逃时间维度的均值回归（连续跑赢市场的主动管理基金数量了了）。 对投资者而言，就像一场在迷雾中前行的冒险，收益的测不准性让投资领域充满了悬念与变数，许多投资 者陷入"超额（相对）收益与绝对收益对立"的思维困境。 这并非文字游戏，而是数学规律的必然。当某组合每年以2%的幅度持续跑赢标普500指数，30年后的累计 超额收益将高达81.1%，相当于在美股百年长牛的贝塔地基上，用阿尔法的复利魔法建造出一座收益金字 塔。 历史反复验证：当管理人以长期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [8]. Core Insights - The impact of the mutual tariff increases between the US and China on the environmental sector is minimal, which is expected to benefit absolute return assets such as waste incineration and water services [2][11]. - The mutual tariff increases are likely to drive funds towards absolute return sectors, with companies in waste management and water services expected to see cash flow improvements and higher dividend payouts [11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 2, 2024, the US announced a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on all trading partners, including China, which was followed by China's announcement of a similar tariff on US imports effective April 10, 2025 [6]. Event Commentary - The environmental sector is directly impacted in areas such as waste plastic processing, UCO (Used Cooking Oil), and cleanroom technology. However, the overall effect on the sector is limited, and companies focused on domestic demand are expected to benefit [11]. - The report highlights that the waste management and water service industries have strong cash flows, with potential dividend payout ratios reaching 70%-80%. Current valuations are seen as stable, with limited downside risk [11]. - Recent regulatory changes and price adjustments in water services are expected to enhance profitability and cash flow for companies in the sector [11]. Related Research - The report references ongoing reforms in public utility pricing mechanisms and emphasizes the positive implications for profitability and cash flow in the environmental sector [10].