数据显示，9月24日上海黄金现货价格报价853.15元/克，相较于期货主力价格（860.00元/克）贴水6.85 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 9月24日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 860.00 | 1.03% | 285621 | 274765 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 美国总统特朗普：如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议，美国已准备好加征关税；乌克兰在欧盟支持下有能力夺回 所有失地；北约国家应在俄罗斯飞机进入北约空域时将其击落；与普京的关系"不幸地没有任何意义"。 【机构观点】 银行期货： 昨日鲍威尔的发言表明其认为利率仍偏紧缩，被市场解读为或为进一步降息打开空间，市场对于未来美 国流动性宽松的预期仍较高，但美国的类滞胀风险犹存，且地缘冲突仍时有抬头，贵金属整体维持强 势。另外需要注意，最新的PMI数据指向美国经济具有一定韧性，有助于暂时缓解市场对美国经济减速 的担忧情绪，贵金属在历史高位附近出现一定的获利了结迹象。整体来看，由于美国处于降息通道，海 外 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It also presents forecasts on global and regional soybean production, trade, and consumption, as well as the impact of weather on crops [1][7]. Summary by Section 01 & 02 Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products are presented, along with currency exchange rates and basis data for some futures contracts [1][2]. - For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil for December is 4439.00, with a previous -day decline of 0.89% and an overnight decline of 0.11% [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook for major soybean - producing states in the US from September 23 - 27 shows higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation near to below the median in the Midwest [3]. - The high temperature in the Midwest and rainfall in the west are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvesting, but may help reduce drought and supply water to the Mississippi River [5]. - International Supply and Demand - - IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons, and the trade volume in 2024/25 will increase by 2 million tons month - on - month [7]. - As of September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 22% the previous week [8]. - As of September 11, US soybean export sales increased by 925,300 tons, meeting expectations, and the export shipment volume increased by 31% compared to the previous week [8]. - CONAB estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons [10]. - The EU and UK's rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast [10]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - - On September 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 380 tons (2%) compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On September 18, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 99,200 tons compared to the previous day, and the national oil - mill operating rate decreased by 1.13% [14]. - China's August imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the cumulative imports from January - August showed different trends [14]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9% [17]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's large - scale global tariff collection [17]. - Domestic News - - On September 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1085, up 72 points (yuan depreciation) [19]. - On September 18, the Chinese central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 18, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 10.858 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.128 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 16.653 billion yuan and bond futures had a net inflow of 390 million yuan [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The U.S. significantly revised down its annual non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs compared to initial estimates, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [3] - The average monthly job addition was adjusted from 147,000 to approximately 70,000, indicating a more sluggish job market than previously reported [3] - The largest downward revisions occurred in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and retail sectors, each losing over 100,000 jobs, suggesting a contraction in consumer spending [5] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the discrepancies in employment data to flaws in the "birth-death model" used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which failed to accurately reflect the rapid changes in new and old businesses post-COVID-19 [3] - Following the release of the revised employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from approximately 89% to nearly 94% [7] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, indicated that the bank had already anticipated a weakening U.S. economy prior to the data release [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefins are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly influenced by supply and demand. This summer's maintenance has been balanced. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. Last week, the production ratios of both decreased, supply contracted, market pressure eased, and the rebound of international crude oil prices also helped polyolefins stop falling. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on crude oil against the increase of OPEC, as well as potential changes in the Fed's interest rate policy. In the short term, focus on the support of downstream stockpiling for raw materials [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7226, 7237, and 7176 respectively, with changes of -3, -4, and 26 and percentage changes of -0.04%, -0.06%, and 0.36%. The trading volumes were 178117, 4302, and 50, and the open interests were 517187, 33638, and 8053 with changes of -790, -638, and 0. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 61, and -50 compared to previous values of -12, 91, and -79 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 6971, and 6854 respectively, with changes of -1, 4, and 33 and percentage changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes were 172820, 6722, and 447, and the open interests were 614906, 52117, and 2319 with changes of 4233, 1211, and -379. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -23, 117, and -94 compared to previous values of -18, 146, and -128 [2] Raw Material & Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2] Information - On Wednesday (September 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $64.08. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.49 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.66 - $67.78 [2]

Core Points - A senior aide to President Trump emphasized that the Federal Reserve must remain "completely independent of political influence," including from Trump himself [1] - The aide, Kevin Hassett, stated that allowing national leaders to control central banks often leads to inflation and consumer pain [1] - Trump's repeated calls for immediate interest rate cuts and his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the Fed's ability to set rates without political interference [1] - The potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by Trump has also sparked controversy, with Cook filing a lawsuit against the dismissal [2] - Hassett mentioned that he has no plans for comprehensive reform of the Fed and is focused on his current responsibilities [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset called for increased scrutiny of the Fed, including its rate-setting powers, which Hassett supports [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve should operate independently from political pressures, as stated by Kevin Hassett [1] - Historical evidence suggests that political control over central banks can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as inflation [1] Political Influence and Controversies - Trump's demands for rate cuts and his public criticism of Powell have led to doubts about the Fed's independence [1] - The situation surrounding the potential firing of Fed Governor Cook has raised questions about the established norms of Fed operations [2] Future of the Federal Reserve - Hassett is on a shortlist of candidates to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May 2026 [1] - There are no immediate plans for major reforms within the Fed, according to Hassett [1] - The Treasury Secretary's call for more oversight of the Fed's powers indicates a potential shift in the relationship between the Treasury and the Fed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to reveal further signs of a cooling labor market, with a median forecast of 75,000 new jobs added, compared to 73,000 in July, amidst various economic indicators showing weakness [1][2]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with July's non-farm payroll growth at 73,000, below the expected 110,000, and significant downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June combined [2][3]. - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decrease of 176,000 job openings to 7.181 million, the lowest since September of the previous year [2]. - The ADP employment report indicated an increase of only 54,000 jobs in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 [2][3]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could heighten concerns about "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy, leading to increased market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 99.4%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut if the non-farm payroll number is below 40,000 and the unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 4.4% [5][6]. Market Reactions - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are anticipated to be significant, with potential impacts on the U.S. dollar and gold prices depending on whether the data meets or falls short of expectations [8]. - Historical data shows that gold and crude oil prices have a 42% probability of rising following the release of non-farm payroll data, while the Nasdaq 100 index has a 58% probability of increasing [9].

Core Insights - The JOLTS report indicates a decrease in job vacancies to 7.18 million in July, down from a revised 7.43 million in June, which was below market expectations of 7.4 million [1][3][4] - The total number of hires and separations remained unchanged at 5.3 million, with resignations at 3.2 million and layoffs at 1.8 million [1] - Job vacancies in healthcare and social assistance decreased by 181,000, while arts, entertainment, and recreation saw a reduction of 62,000 [1] Market Reaction - Following the JOLTS report, the USD faced selling pressure, with the dollar index dropping 0.2% to 98.10 [1] - The market is closely monitoring JOLTS data ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report, as labor market conditions are crucial for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3][4] Labor Market Trends - Job vacancies have been steadily declining since peaking at 12 million in March 2022, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 92% probability according to CME FedWatch Tool, influenced by the weak labor market report [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent increase in gold prices is influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and rising physical gold demand in China [1][3] - As of September 1, the Shanghai gold spot price was reported at 795.38 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.18 yuan compared to the futures price of 800.56 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness with non-farm employment figures falling short of market expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [2] Group 2 - The latest PCE and core PCE data from the U.S. met market expectations, indicating persistent inflation but limited impact from tariff shocks, which has raised market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut [3] - The demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November last year, continuing for eight consecutive months [1] - The geopolitical risks have slightly diminished, but the market's demand for safe-haven assets remains, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [1][3]

来源：市场资讯 9月1日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1072，下调42.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为87.4% 年内人民币兑美元汇率有望走强 外汇远期价格往往反映了市场对未来一段时间汇率走势的预期。8月以来，在人民币兑美元汇率即期价 格震荡走强的同时，3月期、4月期远期价格表现亦趋同，说明至今年年底前，市场看好人民币兑美元汇 率走强。而央行的汇率政策是一贯的，在坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用、坚持底线思维的原则 下，可以预见，未来一段时间，人民币兑美元汇率有望持续维持震荡偏强的行情，这将有利于进一步提 升包括资本市场在内的人民币资产的国际吸引力。（证券时报） 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.6%，降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为45.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 48.6%。 ...