Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has detected signs of weakness in the US economy, predicting that the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be lower than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, noted that there is significant uncertainty regarding the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Comments from senior Federal Reserve officials have diminished market confidence in a potential rate cut in December [3] - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem emphasized the need for caution in further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Federal Reserve officials, including Kashkari and Harmack, expressed a preference to maintain current interest rates to continue addressing inflation [3]

前言：富格林以亚洲500强唯一金企代表超群实力，始终重视优质服务投入以便引导广大投资者曝光防范异常欺诈套路，合理借助分析师团队 专业协助精准斩获盈利。金价周二上涨，盘中最高触及4148.91美元，创下10月23日以来新高。投资者如需寻求异常冻结曝光协助可即时与富 格林联系，转接专业分析师团队在线沟通交流获取可信指引建议。 富格林以亚洲500强唯一金企代表超群实力，始终重视优质服务投入以便引导广大投资者曝光防范异常欺诈套路，合理借助分析师团队专业协 助精准斩获盈利。美国停摆即将结束、经济数据恢复在即、以及美联储内部鹰派转鸽的明确信号，共同点燃了黄金市场的多头火焰。投资者如 需寻求异常冻结曝光协助可即时与富格林联系，转接专业分析师团队在线沟通交流获取可信指引建议。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中多次逼近4150美元关口，创近三周来的新高，但未能冲上此处，反而回吐部分涨幅，最终收涨0.26%，收报 4126.36美元/盎司。 富格林分析指，黄金在美联储进一步降息预期下仍在吸引后续买盘。美国停摆虽然可能结束，但引发的经济数据担忧依然利好避险黄金。市场 的乐观情绪和美元小幅上涨也未能削弱金价的看涨基调。衡量黄金趋势的主导 ...

来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：鸽派预期助推金价，短期关注上方阻力突破 昨日金价开盘后直接启动涨势，价格稳步抬升，奠定日内多头基调；原计划在4050美元/盎司布局的空 单，因价格快速反弹至4060美元/盎司触发止损，随后果断反手进场多单，精准捕捉后续上涨行情；金 价突破关键心理关口4100美元/盎司后加速上行，多单于高位止盈离场，最终不仅覆盖空单止损损失， 还实现约30美元的净盈利；最终黄金日线收于一根饱满大阳线，收盘价定格于4115美元/盎司，单日涨 幅显著，技术形态进一步确认多头主导格局。 周二（11月11日）近期公布的美国经济数据密集表现疲软，成为推动黄金上涨的核心动力。就业市场新 增岗位大幅减少（部分受政府停摆影响），消费者信心指数超预期下滑，制造业PMI持续低迷，市场普 遍担忧美国经济复苏动能减弱；多位美联储高层发表鸽派言论，强调"需根据经济数据灵活调整政策"， 进一步强化市场对政策转向的预期。 不过，参议院已于周日程序性通过一项旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案，市场预计本周内正式结束 停摆的概率高达88%。若停摆结束，此前因政府机构停摆导致的就业、消费等经济数据缺失问题将逐步 缓解，短期市场风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: - Fed Chair Powell indicated a weak labor market, leading to a decline in the dollar index and increasing gold's attractiveness [2] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting at the end of October, with a 100% probability of another cut in December, enhancing gold's appeal in a low-interest environment [2] - The Fed's Beige Book reported minimal changes in economic activity, with rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and low-income households [2] - Boston Fed President Collins and Governor Milan support two more rate cuts this year, which would lower U.S. Treasury yields and indirectly boost gold's appeal [2] - **Signs of Economic Weakness in the U.S.**: - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 15 days, causing an estimated $15 billion daily loss in economic output, affecting key data releases [2] - Despite a better-than-expected New York Fed Empire Manufacturing Index, the Beige Book noted cooling consumer spending and rising layoffs, with tariffs increasing input costs and inflation expectations [2] - Consumption patterns are diverging, with high-income households increasing spending while middle-income families face "middle-class recession" [2] - **International Trade and Geopolitical Tensions**: - President Trump is considering ending some trade relations with China, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer criticizing China's export controls on rare earths [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce responded, stating that U.S. restrictions harm Chinese interests, contributing to a decline in the dollar index to 98.65, providing upward momentum for gold [3] - Increased geopolitical tensions are driving demand for gold as a hedge against stock market risks, with a global trend towards de-dollarization enhancing gold's safe-haven role [3] Technical Analysis - **Daily Level**: - Gold continues a strong upward trend, closing with a bullish candle and achieving a "four consecutive bullish days" pattern, solidifying a bullish market structure [7] - The price has not broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating that any short-term declines should be viewed as technical corrections rather than trend reversals [7] - **Four-Hour Level**: - Gold shows a strong upward movement, consistently supported by the MA5 and MA10 moving averages [10] - The MA10 serves as a critical support level; a drop below this average would signal a potential adjustment phase, while stability above it suggests continued bullish momentum [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a significant downward revision of employment data indicating that the actual job growth is less robust than previously reported [1] Employment Data Revision - The U.S. Department of Labor revised the employment data for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, showing a decrease of 910,000 jobs compared to initial estimates [1] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a reduction of 176,000 jobs, professional and business services decreased by 158,000 jobs, and retail trade jobs were down by 126,000 [1] Recent Employment Trends - In August, the non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 jobs added in July, and well below market expectations of 75,000 [1] - The downward revision of employment growth data has heightened concerns regarding the overall weakness of the U.S. economy [1] Future Data Revisions - The Department of Labor conducts annual revisions of its employment data, with the final revised figures for this period expected to be released in February of the following year [1]

Market Trends & Exchange Rate Dynamics - The possibility exists for the RMB to appreciate further against the USD, potentially breaking through the 7 level [1] - Scenarios driving RMB appreciation include a weakening US economy, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a general decline in market confidence in the USD [1] - A potential improvement in US-China trade relations, such as a second-phase trade agreement, could also boost market confidence and push the RMB higher [1] - The multi-lateral exchange rate trend of the RMB is a result, not a target [1] Policy & Stance - China is not deliberately devaluing its exchange rate to support exports [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar is expected to depreciate significantly, especially if the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes swift action to lower interest rates [1][4] - As of September 2024, the assets managed by DoubleLine Capital amount to $95 billion [1] - The dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend due to investor concerns over the US's large fiscal deficit, leading to a shift in investments to other regions [1][4] Group 2 - A major negative factor for the dollar is President Trump's push to lower borrowing costs, which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - Recent economic data indicates a weaker labor market than previously expected, and inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve have risen, putting additional pressure on the dollar [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a cumulative decline of over 7% this year, despite a recent 0.2% increase [4] Group 3 - The biggest threat to the theory of dollar depreciation is the potential return of "exceptionalism" policies in the US, which could boost demand for US assets [5] - The investment manager is closely monitoring commitments from trade partners, including the EU and Japan, to invest billions into the US, which could offset capital outflows [5] - The speed of global savings returning to the US is expected to be slower than in the past, aside from trade agreements [5]

Core Insights - Japanese rubber futures reached a one-week high, driven by easing trade tensions [1] - Concerns remain regarding the potential impact of signs of economic weakness in the United States on future price trends [1] Group 1 - Japanese rubber futures have shown a positive response to the recent alleviation of trade tensions, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - The market is closely monitoring the economic indicators from the United States, as any signs of weakness could influence the trajectory of rubber prices moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Mexico has indicated that a weak U.S. economy could negatively impact Mexico's economic performance [1] Economic Impact - A slowdown in the U.S. economy may lead to reduced demand for Mexican exports, which could adversely affect Mexico's growth prospects [1] - The interdependence between the U.S. and Mexican economies means that economic challenges in the U.S. can have significant ripple effects in Mexico [1]