Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 150 points, down 0.39% to 41,888.10, NASDAQ down 0.83% to 18,987.25, and S&P 500 down 0.44% to 5,866.61 [1] - Utilities shares increased by 1.2%, while health care stocks decreased by 1.4% [1] Walmart Earnings - Walmart Inc. reported first-quarter FY26 sales growth of 2.5% year-on-year to $165.60 billion, slightly missing the analyst consensus estimate of $165.88 billion [2] - The retailer's adjusted EPS was 61 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 58 cents [2] Walmart Outlook - For fiscal year 2026, Walmart reaffirmed an adjusted EPS outlook of $2.50 – $2.60, compared to the $2.61 estimate, and sales guidance of $694.70 billion – $701.50 billion, versus the street view of $705.30 billion [3] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 2.3% to $61.73, while gold prices increased by 0.2% to $3,195.80 [6] - Silver prices decreased by 0.2% to $32.375, and copper fell by 0.4% to $4.6300 [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.98%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 0.79%, and China's Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68% [8] - Click Holdings Limited shares surged 270% to $1.0100 after announcing a cooperation agreement [8] - Graphjet Technology shares increased by 97% to $0.1913 following a significant stake disclosure by its Co-Founder [8] - Foot Locker, Inc. shares rose 83% to $23.52 after DICK's Sporting Goods agreed to acquire the company [8] - Healthcare Triangle, Inc. shares dropped 82% to $0.0402, and NanoVibronix, Inc. shares fell 63% to $1.4299 after announcing a public offering [8] - REE Automotive Ltd. shares decreased by 54% to $1.52 following fourth-quarter financial results and a pause in production plans [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial production remained little changed in April, against market estimates of a 0.2% rise [12] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index increased by 22 points to -4.0 in May, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -9.2 [12] - Initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000 for the week ending May 10 [12] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.1% month-over-month in April, compared to a revised 1.7% gain in March [12] - U.S. producer prices declined by 0.5% in April, against market estimates of a 0.2% gain [12]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has led to a market rebound, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its target prices for Chinese stocks twice within a week, returning to levels predicted before April 2 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 14, the Chinese stock market has fully recovered the losses incurred since April 2, with the MSCI China, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Tech indices rising by 2-4% from their early April highs [1][4]. - The reduction of tariffs has contributed to this recovery, with a total of 91% of the tariffs being lifted and a suspension of 24% of retaliatory tariffs, exceeding market expectations [4]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has maintained an overweight rating on Chinese stocks, adjusting the 12-month target prices for the MSCI China and CSI 300 indices to 84 and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [1][5]. - The firm has revised its GDP growth forecasts for both the U.S. and China, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The hardware technology, industrial, and consumer sectors have led the market rally, while healthcare, U.S. exporters, and government spending-related stocks have lagged [4]. - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from consumption recovery and digital transformation, including quality regional banks and leading real estate companies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the box office performance and thematic elements of the film "Hunting Gold: Game," which has reached a box office of 169 million yuan as of May 10. The film features renowned actor Andy Lau portraying a financial expert, highlighting the contrast between cinematic portrayals of finance and real-life experiences in the stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Film Performance - As of May 10, the film "Hunting Gold: Game" has achieved a box office revenue of 169 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Actor's Background - Andy Lau plays the role of a financial master in the film, known for his ability to guide investors to significant profits [4]. - Despite his on-screen prowess, Andy Lau admits to having no knowledge of stock trading in real life, stating that he has never invested in stocks and leaves financial decisions to his wife [5]. Group 3: Company Overview - Andy Lau founded the company "Eagle Vision Holdings" in 2003, which is managed by a professional team and operates in various sectors, including film and television production, music production, artist management, and advertising [6]. - Eagle Vision has produced several successful films, including "The Legend of the Condor Heroes" and "The Killer," and holds distribution rights for nearly 40 films globally [6]. - The company launched the "Asian New Star Director" project in 2006, producing notable films like "Crazy Stone" and "Tea with Grandma," which have achieved both commercial success and critical acclaim [6]. Group 4: Awards and Recognition - In 2011, Eagle Vision participated in the production of the acclaimed film "A Simple Life," which won multiple awards at various film festivals, including the Venice Film Festival and the Hong Kong Film Awards [7].

Company Performance - McDonald's Corp reported a first-quarter revenue decline of 3.4% year-on-year to $5.96 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $6.09 billion, although adjusted EPS of $2.67 beat the consensus estimate of $2.66 [2] - CommScope Holding Company, Inc. shares increased by 22% to $4.5650 following better-than-expected quarterly earnings [8] - Classover Holdings, Inc. shares surged 239% to $3.87 after announcing an equity purchase facility agreement with Solana Strategies Holdings [8] - MediaAlpha, Inc. shares rose by 20% to $10.09 following strong quarterly sales [8] - Organon & Co. shares dropped 23% to $9.99 after reporting first-quarter financial results and cutting its quarterly dividend [8] - Arvinas, Inc. shares fell by 28% to $6.92 after posting first-quarter results [8] - Confluent, Inc. shares decreased by 16% to $20.01 following first-quarter results [8] Market Trends - U.S. construction spending fell by 0.5% month-over-month to an annual rate of $2,196.1 billion in March [9] - The ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7 in April compared to 49.0 in March, above market estimates of 48 [9] - U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 in the week ending April 26, compared to market estimates of 224,000 [9]

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...

Group 1 - Direct financing refers to the method where fund providers directly supply funds to fund seekers through negotiations or by purchasing securities issued by them, including stock and bond issuance [1] - The capital market consists of various financing activities and is primarily divided into the securities market and the bank medium to long-term credit market, including stocks, corporate bonds, and financial derivatives [2] - The stock market is a platform for companies to raise funds by issuing shares, representing ownership rights for shareholders, and is divided into the primary market (issuance) and secondary market (trading) [3][4] Group 2 - Issuers are entities that issue stocks to raise funds, while investors include institutional and individual investors who trade stocks [4] - The independent organization of the stock market includes self-regulatory organizations like stock exchanges and regulatory bodies such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4] - A subsidiary is a company controlled by another company (the parent company) and has its own legal status, while a branch does not have legal status and operates under the parent company's responsibility [5] Group 3 - The consolidated financial statements reflect the overall financial status, operating results, and cash flows of a company and its subsidiaries, including the consolidated balance sheet and income statement [8] - The company must ensure compliance with legal requirements and provide accurate information to intermediaries during the listing process to avoid delays or additional costs [9][10] Group 4 - The stock issuance plan includes details such as underwriting methods, issuance quantity, pricing principles, and procedures [16][17] - Underwriting is the process where securities companies sell securities on behalf of issuers, with methods including firm commitment and best efforts [17] Group 5 - After listing, companies must adhere to regulations, maintain transparency, and comply with the securities listing agreement, ensuring proper governance structures are in place [18][19] - Companies should actively manage investor relations and ensure timely and accurate information disclosure to enhance investor trust [19] Group 6 - The new Securities Law introduces changes to the stock issuance system, requiring registration with the relevant authorities and allowing stock exchanges to review issuance applications [20] - Founders of a company must meet specific criteria, including the ability to independently bear civil responsibilities [23] Group 7 - State-owned enterprises undergoing restructuring must ensure legal compliance and disclose relevant opinions from authorities regarding the legitimacy of the restructuring process [24] - Clear ownership structures are essential, and issues such as equity holding and contractual agreements must be addressed to avoid disputes [25][26] Group 8 - The independence of an issuer is crucial, requiring a complete business system and the ability to operate independently in the market [42] - Related party transactions must be managed to avoid conflicts of interest and ensure fair pricing [44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade conflicts, it is expected that starting from the April PMI, data will gradually reflect the pressure, increasing the urgency to boost domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed, and short - and medium - term treasury bond yields are expected to decline significantly, followed by long - term bond yields potentially breaking previous lows [28]. - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner, more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral [28]. - For REITs, project fundamentals show increasing differentiation. In the second quarter, rental housing, consumption, and public utility projects may maintain resilience, while industrial parks and logistics warehousing projects may face headwinds [28]. - The current fundamentals are favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to buy on dips. Interest rates are expected to be narrowly volatile before the end of April and more volatile from May to June, with a possibility of breaking previous lows [29]. - Since April, external tariff shocks have affected domestic manufacturing and emerging industries. In the future, attention should be paid to the recovery of external demand, the development of emerging markets, and the implementation of domestic stimulus policies [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In March 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly year - on - year growth of 5.40%, the same as the previous period and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 50.50%, up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.80%, also up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.20%, and the Caixin service industry business activity index was 51.90%, both showing an upward trend from the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in March 2025 were 11.50%, 1.60%, and 7.00% respectively, with M0 and M1 increasing compared to the previous period, while M2 remained the same [1]. - The CPI in March 2025 had a year - on - year decline of 0.10%, narrowing from the previous period; the PPI had a year - on - year decline of 2.50%, slightly deeper than the previous period [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.20% and 4.60% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of export and import values in March 2025 were 12.40% and - 4.30% respectively, with exports rebounding strongly from the previous period and imports declining [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2][3][17]. - On April 28, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 24 had negative basis. Yarn, Zhengzhou cotton, and pulp had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Sichuan Yajiang has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, ranking first in the world in terms of proven pegmatite - type lithium ore reserves [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, with a total of 2292.33 tons by the end of March. Domestic raw - material gold production increased by 1.49% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 5.96%. The trading volume and turnover of the domestic gold market increased significantly [6]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 28.9 tons in 2025 and 20.9 tons in 2026 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indian government is working to ensure a fair competition environment to prevent the impact of cheap imports on the steel market, and the country's steel ministry plans to increase coking coal imports [8][9]. - The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement this week [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 13.975 billion, and the net cash flow from operating activities increased by RMB 21.9 billion year - on - year [12]. - The National Energy Administration issued measures to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, including exploring financing channels and supporting private enterprises in the energy field [12]. - In March 2025, there were 4455 new on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaic) in China, mainly photovoltaic projects [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia exported 923,893 tons of palm oil from April 1 to 25 [14]. - Japan may increase imports of US - produced corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 28, the central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, with specific measures in multiple aspects [17]. - The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner, and is researching new policy tools [17]. - In March 2025, local governments in China issued a total of 978.8 billion yuan in bonds, including 174.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 804 billion yuan in special bonds [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally stable [23]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.54%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.86% [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2995, down 163 points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 23 points [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.65%, and non - US currencies generally rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond market and REITs, including yield trends, investment strategies, and project fundamentals [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 29, 217 bonds were listed, 88 bonds were issued, 132 bonds were settled, and 302 bonds repaid principal and interest [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - share major indices adjusted, with consumption and real - estate sectors performing poorly and bank stocks strengthening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% [31][32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.12% [32]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 0.81% [33]. - As of April 28, 4706 A - share listed companies disclosed their first - quarter reports, with about 45.07% achieving year - on - year profit growth [33]. - Since April, 236 A - share companies have been surveyed by foreign institutions, mainly in sectors such as overseas expansion, consumer electronics, and pet economy [33]. - Multiple fund companies received notices of index license fee reduction, with the fee generally discounted by 20% [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, with the strong performance of the A-share market, fixed-income + funds with equity exposure performed well, showing a trend that the higher the equity position, the better the overall performance. Meanwhile, pure bond products experienced significant drawdowns due to multiple factors. QDII bond funds rose driven by the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of short-term US bond yields [3]. - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, with opportunities in the medium and short - end. The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the convertible bond market has certain differences in views [35][37][39]. Summary According to the Directory 1.固收型公募基金2025Q1季报数据解读 Performance - In Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds with equity exposure performed well, and the higher the equity position, the better the performance. Pure bond products had significant drawdowns, and passive index bond funds performed worse than medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds. QDII bond funds rose [3]. - The average Q1 2025 reinstated unit net value growth rates of different types of funds are as follows: convertible bond funds 2.72%, international (QDII) bond funds 2.02%, flexible allocation funds 1.09%, partial debt hybrid funds 0.45%, hybrid bond funds (secondary) 0.39%, money market funds 0.34%, hybrid bond funds (primary) 0.29%, short - term pure bond funds 0.19%, medium - and long - term pure bond funds - 0.10%, enhanced index bond funds - 0.17%, passive index bond funds - 0.26%, REITs - 0.29% [5]. Scale - As of the end of Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds received significant capital inflows, with secondary bond funds having the fastest scale growth [6]. Leverage - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the overall fund leverage showed a downward trend [8]. Duration - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the fitted durations of pure bond funds all showed a downward trend [11]. Equity - related Position Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income funds with equity exposure all showed a downward trend. The changes in stock positions were divergent, with the stock positions of primary and secondary bond funds with relatively low position centers increasing, while those of convertible bond funds with relatively high position centers decreasing [15]. Stock Industry Changes (Active) - The top five industries with increased holdings are non - ferrous metals, steel, commerce and retail, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The top five industries with reduced holdings are transportation, construction, coal, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals [18]. Individual Stock Heavy - holdings - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by market value are Zijin Mining, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Yili Group, China CITIC Bank, and Haier Smart Home [20]. - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by the number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, Luxshare Precision, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, and Yili Group [21]. Individual Stock Increases - The top stocks with increased market value in Q1 2025 are Zijin Mining, China CITIC Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, etc. The top stocks with an increased number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [23]. Individual Stock Decreases - The top stocks with reduced market value in Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Postal Savings Bank of China, PetroChina, etc. The top stocks with a reduced number of holding funds are China Shenhua, CNOOC, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc. [25][26]. Convertible Bond Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the convertible bond holdings of the fixed - income funds decreased slightly. The funds generally reduced their holdings of bond - biased convertible bonds and increased their holdings of balanced convertible bonds [27]. - Compared with Q4 2024, the industries with the largest increase in holdings in Q1 2025 are basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and electronics. The industries with the largest decrease in holdings are banks, transportation, and automobiles. Fixed - income + funds are overweight in basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and machinery compared with the CSI Convertible Bond Index [29]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds rated between A+ and AA+. They moderately reduced credit quality to select individual bonds after the overall valuation of convertible bonds increased [31]. 2. 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点汇总 Short - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, especially with possible supportive monetary policies, the capital market may become more liquid. Structurally, they are optimistic about the certainty opportunities in the medium and short - end [35]. Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that with increasing external uncertainties, the internal economic momentum needs continuous fiscal and monetary policy support. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, and the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Some fund managers advocate active trading to increase returns, while others are optimistic about coupon opportunities [37]. Fixed - income Funds with Equity Exposure - Stock assets: The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the mid - term repair trend of fundamentals, leading stocks with strong competitiveness, stable patterns but significantly compressed valuations, as well as the allocation value of dividend assets and technology growth [39]. - Convertible bond assets: There are differences in views on the convertible bond market. On one hand, as the convertible bond market adjusts with the stock market, the previous high valuations have improved, and the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the absolute price and relative valuation of convertible bonds are still at a high level, and some fund managers mainly allocate to bond - biased convertible bonds [39]. - Pure bond assets: They still have good allocation value. It is expected that the upward space of medium - and short - term interest rates is limited in Q2 2025, and the volatility of long - term interest rates may increase. Credit bonds are considered the main investment direction [39]. High - position Convertible Bond Enhancement Funds - Most fund managers believe that the convertible bond market has returned to a reasonable valuation. Structurally, they focus on diversified investment and select investment opportunities that are in line with the market trend and benefit from policies [42]. QDII Bond Funds - Global uncertainties and disturbances may continue. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, and the market may not fully price in the risks. In Q2, US Treasury bonds may decline under recession trading, but there is a high probability of two - way fluctuations in the short term. Credit allocation should focus on high - grade, medium - and short - duration bonds [43][44][45]. Public REITs - Rental housing: The overall performance remained stable in Q1 2025, with small fluctuations in occupancy rates [46]. - Industrial parks: Market demand continued to be under pressure, with occupancy rates of most industrial park REITs falling below 80% [47]. - Consumption: The performance of consumer infrastructure projects was stable, with occupancy rates generally above 90% [48]. - Transportation: There was significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some projects recovering and others performing poorly [49]. - Warehousing and logistics: There was an obvious "quantity - for - price" phenomenon, with occupancy rates remaining high but rents decreasing, leading to a slight decline in operating income [50]. - Energy and environmental protection: The performance of different underlying assets was differentiated [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in the second quarter is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - The situation is becoming more favorable for the bond market, which is expected to strengthen with fluctuations. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.7%, and may decline further if the expectation of interest - rate cuts strengthens [25] - After the "tariff storm" settles in early April, A - shares are expected to rebound, Hong Kong stocks to consolidate, and U.S. stocks to recover [28] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q4 2024, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter [1] - In March 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [1][2][14] - In February 2025, social financing scale increment was 70546 billion yuan, M0 year - on - year growth was 9.7%, M1 was 0.1%, and M2 was 7.0% [1] - In February 2025, CPI year - on - year was - 0.7%, PPI was - 2.2%, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.1%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.0% [1] - In February 2025, export value year - on - year was - 3.0%, and import value year - on - year was 1.5% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in Q2 is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures after the Qingming Festival [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and glass futures from April 2 [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted intraday flat - today trading fees for tin futures contracts from April 1 night session [3] - Four insurance institutions have started gold trading, aiming for long - term and stable asset appreciation [3] - On March 31, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 23 had negative basis [3] - Trump may impose a 20% special tariff on all imports, causing the Asia - Pacific stock markets to slump [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, expecting three Fed rate cuts this year [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On March 31, spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs [5] - On March 31, domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 74000 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - month low [5] - As of March 31, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.15% to 933.38 tons [5] - As of March 28, zinc, aluminum, copper inventories hit new lows, while lead inventory increased, and nickel inventory decreased [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In March, China's steel industry PMI was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, but still in the contraction range. April's steel market demand is expected to pick up [6] - In March, the black - commodity sector declined, with coking coal futures hitting a new low since 2017 [6][7] - The U.S. proposed a new mineral agreement with Ukraine, and Trump warned Zelensky if Ukraine withdraws [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices continued to rise due to concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies [8] - Saudi Aramco kept its April LPG official selling prices stable, while Sonatrach lowered its prices by 2 - 7% [8] - In January 2025, U.S. crude oil production dropped to the lowest since February 2024, and oil product supply reached the highest since October 2024 [8] - U.S. LNG production, gasoline demand, and some export volumes decreased in January 2025, while crude oil export volume increased [9] - U.S. natural gas production in some regions decreased in January 2025, and total oil demand increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9][10] - Tokyo Gas will acquire a stake in a Texas shale from Chevron [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean inventory in Q1 was 1.91 billion bushels [12] - U.S. export inspection volumes for soybeans, wheat, and corn were 793250 tons, 435644 tons, and 1614406 tons respectively [12] - Arabica coffee futures prices rose about 18% in the first three months due to concerns about drought in Brazil [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 1667 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.5%, with a net investment of 317 billion yuan [13] - In March, the central bank conducted 8000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1000 billion yuan, and suspended Treasury bond trading for three consecutive months [13] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the Q2 macro - economy is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2][14][15] - China will take measures to reduce corporate burdens [15] - The Ministry of Finance announced the Q2 2025 Treasury bond issuance plan, including a 30 - year Treasury bond and a special Treasury bond for central financial institution capital injection [15] - The plan for issuing special Treasury bonds for state - owned banks' capital injection was released, with a total of 5000 billion yuan in 5 - year and 7 - year terms [16] - In Q1 2025, 1227 corporate bonds were issued on the exchange bond market, with a total issuance of 8705.19 billion yuan [16] - Guangzhou released its 2025 housing development plan, including planned pre - sale areas and land supply [16] - In March, Guangzhou's second - hand housing transactions increased significantly [17] - Nanjing and Gansu introduced real - estate and housing - provident - fund policies respectively [18] - From January to March, TOP100 real - estate developers' sales decreased year - on - year, but core cities' transactions are expected to recover [18] - The Bank of Japan will reduce its purchase of 10 - 25 - year Treasury bonds in Q2 [18] - Some companies had bond - related events, such as Shanghai Shimao's debt default and several bonds' full redemptions [19] - Moody's adjusted ratings for some companies and commented on the impact of U.S. tariffs on some countries [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market - At the end of the quarter, tight funds pressured short - term bonds, while long - term bonds performed relatively well [20] - Convertible bond indexes declined, with some bonds rising and others falling [20][21] - Most real - estate bonds on the exchange market declined, and some bond indexes showed different trends [21] - Money - market interest rates mostly rose, and Shibor short - end rates showed mixed trends [21][22] - Bank - to - bank and other repurchase rates had different changes, and some agricultural - development bank bonds were issued [22] - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [24] - The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes the market is in a wait - and - see period, and a defensive strategy should be adopted for convertible bonds [25] - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes the bond market will strengthen with fluctuations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may decline [25] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 1, 109 bonds were listed, 61 were issued, 55 were due for payment, and 186 had principal and interest payments [26][27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares closed down, with the chemical, photovoltaic, and robot sectors leading the decline, while gold and bank stocks rose [28] - On Monday, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, but south - bound funds had net purchases [28] - The news of shortening A - share trading hours by 30 minutes is false [28] - The CSRC emphasized providing a better regulatory environment for overseas - listed enterprises [28] - As of the end of March, 120 A + H listed companies proposed dividend plans, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in dividends for 2024 [29] - Ping An Life increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China H - shares [30] - Xiaomi completed a share placement, raising about 42.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [30] - Chen Hang will return to DingTalk as CEO [30]