Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and several departments have launched a comprehensive package of six fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, with a focus on supporting private investment and consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Policies Supporting Private Investment - Four policies are designed to support private investment, including a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and an updated loan interest subsidy policy for equipment renewal [1][2]. - The new loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises and the optimized equipment renewal loan interest subsidy can provide a 1.5 percentage point interest subsidy on the total loan amount, significantly expanding the supported areas and loan purposes [1]. Group 2: Policies Promoting Consumption - Two policies aimed at promoting consumption include a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators and a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which have been optimized to offer greater subsidy intensity, broader consumption areas, longer implementation periods, and wider institutional coverage [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas factors such as Trump's remarks and concerns about Japan's fiscal deterioration have led to a decline in major global indexes. Domestically, market enthusiasm has cooled under policy guidance, with a decrease in trading volume and index levels. Currently, investors can focus on the entry opportunities for IC [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report presents charts showing the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%; the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, and transportation led the gains, while communications, national defense and military industry, and computer industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 2.39% to 22954.32 points [1]. - The daily performance table of major domestic stock indexes shows the closing prices and daily changes on January 20, 2026, and January 19, 2026 [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contracts of IH and IC were at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. - The table of stock index futures trading volume and open interest shows the current values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - The table of stock index futures basis shows the current values and changes of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [38]. - The table of stock index futures inter - period spreads shows the current values and changes of inter - period spreads for different contract combinations of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a stabilizing force for growth and a driving engine for high-quality development, with a focus on implementing a comprehensive set of fiscal and financial policies to boost consumption and investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal and Financial Policies - The fiscal and financial policies aim to lower financing costs for residents and businesses, stimulate consumption, expand effective investment, and invigorate market vitality [1][2]. - The policies are summarized as having "one goal," "two focuses," "three principles," and "six policies," with a strong emphasis on linking these policies to bank credit activities to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Specific Policy Measures - Six key policies were introduced, with four aimed at supporting private investment and two focused on promoting consumption [2][3]. - The first policy is a loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises in sectors like new energy vehicles and medical equipment, providing a 1.5% subsidy for up to two years on loans capped at 50 million yuan [2]. - The second policy is a special guarantee plan for private enterprises, increasing the guarantee ratio from 20% to 40% for loans up to 20 million yuan [2]. - The third policy involves a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, with central government funds providing credit enhancement [2]. - The fourth policy optimizes equipment update loan subsidies, expanding the range of eligible sectors and increasing the subsidy to 1.5% for loans not exceeding two years [2]. Group 3: Consumer Support Policies - The fifth policy enhances loan interest subsidies for service industry operators, raising the loan cap from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1% subsidy for one year [3]. - The sixth policy optimizes personal consumption loan subsidies, allowing residents to receive a 1% subsidy on loans used for consumption, including credit card installment payments [3][7]. - The maximum subsidy for personal consumption has been increased from 500 yuan to 3,000 yuan, significantly enhancing purchasing power [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Impact and Future Outlook - The policies are designed to activate private investment and lower financing costs, addressing the challenges of high financing costs and difficulties in obtaining funds for private enterprises [5][6]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized, aiming for a coordinated approach to stabilize growth and promote long-term high-quality development [4]. - The policies are expected to create a favorable environment for consumption, with an extended implementation period until the end of 2026 and a broader range of participating financial institutions [8].

此外，今天还优化实施了服务业经营主体贷款贴息、个人消费贷款财政贴息、设备更新贷款财政贴息等政策。 财政部副部长 廖岷：激发民间投资是此次一揽子政策的"重头戏"。我们将继续加强与有关部门协同配合，通过创新宏观调控，激发微观主体活力，确 保"十五五"实现良好开局。 T53R 央视网消息：在国务院新闻办公室1月20日举行的新闻发布会上，财政部相关负责人表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支 出盘子，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 为更大力度激发民间投资，促进居民消费，财政部等多部门1月20日推出财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通 过国家融资担保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实施，引导银行新增投放5000亿元中小微企业民间投资贷款。首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，从今 年1月1日起，向中小微民营企业发放的符合条件的固定资产贷款，每年贴息1.5个百分点，最长贴息2年，单户贷款额度上限5000万元，单户最多可享受贴息 150万元，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔相关领域。 C ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 报告类型 股指日评 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 宏观金融团队 1 月 20 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘后快速下滑，随后震荡反弹，跌幅有所 收窄，收跌 0.58%，全市超 3000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.33%、0.17%、0.48%、1.00%。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、 IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.42%、0.07%、0.21%、0.80%（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 110.910 | 110.850 | 111.490 | 111.410 | 0.580 | 0.52 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure while optimizing the structure and effectiveness of spending to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and overall expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending "only increases" and key areas are "only strengthened" [1]. - The proactive fiscal policy in 2025 has played a significant role in achieving economic and social development goals, balancing current needs with long-term sustainability [1][2]. Group 2: Budget and Expenditure - The national general public budget revenue is expected to show a recovery growth trend in 2025, with overall stability in budget execution [1]. - The general public budget expenditure will maintain strong intensity to provide necessary financial support for economic and social development, with expectations of achieving a balance between revenue and expenditure for the year [1]. Group 3: Structural Optimization - The focus will be on optimizing the expenditure structure, ensuring funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" spending pattern, and applying zero-based budgeting principles [2]. - The fiscal department aims to support employment, businesses, markets, and expectations through robust financial backing [2]. Group 4: Policies to Stimulate Investment and Consumption - A comprehensive set of policies will be implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including optimizing personal consumption loan interest subsidies and extending support for service industry loans [2][3]. - The policies targeting private investment are expected to significantly reduce financing costs and enhance profitability for enterprises, thereby invigorating private investment [3]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy will be extended to the end of 2026, with improvements such as including credit card installment payments and raising subsidy standards [3].

财政部等部门1月20日还发布财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政 策，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔 相关领域。首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通过国家融资担保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实 施。廖岷表示，几项政策同向发力将给企业带来直接利好。 廖岷：这次新设的中小微企业贷款贴息以及优化后的设备更新贷款贴息，都可以为企业提供贷款总额的 1.5个百分点贴息。在间接融资方面，设立了民间投资专项担保计划，这是一项新政策，提高了融资担 保额度、风险分担的比例和代偿上限，让银行敢贷、愿贷、多贷。 央广网北京1月21日消息（记者李思默）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，财政 部有关负责人1月20日表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子。确保 总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 财政部副部长廖岷：把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民 收入。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于"两重"建设和"两新"工作。 2026年，财政部门将 ...

Group 1: New Stock and Financial Policies - A new stock, Meidele, is available for subscription with a code of 920119, an issue price of 41.88 yuan per share, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.99 times. The maximum subscription limit for a single account is 720,000 shares [6] - The Ministry of Finance, represented by Vice Minister Liao Min, announced a commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, emphasizing "increased total, optimized structure, better efficiency, and stronger momentum." The total fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall expenditure will only increase [6] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance released a package of five fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand through increased consumption and expanded private investment [6] Group 2: Adjustments to Loan Policies - The Ministry of Finance has optimized the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, including credit card installment payments in the subsidy scope and removing restrictions on certain consumption areas. This means all consumer loans can now benefit from interest subsidies [6] Group 3: Export Tax Adjustments - Starting April 1, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will cancel export tax rebates for photovoltaic products and phase out rebates for electronic products over two years. This policy adjustment aims to promote efficient resource utilization and guide reasonable industrial structure adjustments, contributing to high-quality economic development [6] Group 4: Community Service Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community service providers in elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping services, allowing these institutions to enjoy tax benefits as per regulations [7] Group 5: Commodity Market Adjustments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for futures contracts of copper, gold, and other commodities starting January 22, 2026 [7] Group 6: Oil Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 85 yuan per ton due to rising international oil prices, marking the first price increase for refined oil in 2026. The average price increase for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will be 0.07 yuan per liter [7] Group 7: Company Earnings Forecasts - Huicheng Environmental Protection plans to increase its holdings by 25 million to 50 million yuan [10] - JianTou Energy expects a net profit increase of approximately 253.38% year-on-year for 2025 [10] - Hikvision reports a year-on-year growth of 18.46% in net profit for 2025 [11] - Longzi Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 245.25% to 302.8% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - Zhaoyan New Drug expects a net profit increase of 214% to 371% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - Huachen Equipment forecasts a net profit increase of 193.64% to 242.04% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - Qianyuan Power anticipates a net profit increase of 160% to 190% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - Jin Fang Energy expects a net profit increase of 123.97% to 193.7% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - Other companies such as Zhongfu Industrial, Batian Co., and others also project significant year-on-year profit increases for 2025, ranging from 50% to over 300% [11][12]