Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to invest over 7 trillion yuan in key areas and infrastructure, focusing on enhancing domestic consumption and investment to support economic growth and stability [4][8]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Growth - The government aims to increase government investment and stimulate private investment, focusing on the integration of material and human investment [4]. - The "Six Networks" initiative will be promoted, which includes water, electricity, computing power, new communication networks, urban underground pipelines, and logistics networks [4]. - The investment in major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan this year [4]. Group 2: Consumption Enhancement - The government will implement the "Two New" policies to boost consumption, including special actions to enhance consumer spending and improve service quality [6][11]. - More policies and funding will be arranged to better unleash consumption potential [5][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to maintain a more proactive stance, building on last year's expansion to support economic resilience and structural optimization [10]. - The expected GDP increment for this year is projected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, providing strong support for employment stability and risk prevention [7][8]. Group 4: Financial and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China will maintain a clear stance on exchange rate stability, emphasizing market determination in exchange rate formation [16]. - The capital market's scale, structure, and quality are improving, enhancing its resilience and risk management capabilities [25]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will focus on improving the investment environment and enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets to international investors [30][31].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has improved, with steel and iron ore prices fluctuating upwards. The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.26% with shrinking volume and open interest. The supply and demand of rebar are both rising, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals remain weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the valuation is low, and costs provide support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5][36]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil bottomed out and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.31% with shrinking volume and open interest. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils has not subsided, and demand resilience is weakening. The contradictions in the hot-rolled coil market are accumulating, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is a relative advantage, and it is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][36]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated upwards, recording a daily increase of 1.38% with shrinking volume and open interest. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide support. However, iron ore demand is weak, and supply has increased. The fundamentals of the iron ore market remain weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, to ensure sufficient market liquidity and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels [7]. - In the arrangement of fiscal funds this year, three aspects have reached new highs: the total expenditure has exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time; the scale of newly issued government bonds has reached 11.89 trillion yuan, the largest in recent years; the central government's transfer payments to local governments have reached 10.42 trillion yuan, strengthening local fiscal security capabilities [8]. - In late February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period. Pig iron production was 15.18 million tons, with a daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase. Steel production was 16.89 million tons, with a daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.34 million tons, a 4.3% decrease from the previous ten-day period, a 22.6% increase from the beginning of the year, a 17.9% increase from the same period last month, a 6.3% increase from the same period last year, and a 3.8% decrease from the same period the year before last [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,301 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,230 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,265 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160 yuan. The volume-spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,000 [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 765 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 765 yuan. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 11.03 and 26.06 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) is 101.01, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 101.35 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,088 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The trading volume is 704,303 lots, a decrease of 101,837 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,798,732 lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,230 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.31%. The trading volume is 340,329 lots, a decrease of 49,271 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 1,398,808 lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 772.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 264,664 lots, a decrease of 170,742 lots from the previous day. The open interest is 488,254 lots, a decrease of 10,515 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production conditions (including blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills and 94 independent electric furnace steel mills) [14][22][28]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The production of short-process steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 82,100 tons. The demand for rebar has recovered as expected, but it is still at a relatively low level, and the incremental space is limited. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened. The production of plate mills has declined, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 85,000 tons. The demand for hot-rolled coils has also weakened, and the demand resilience will continue to decline. Under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure has not subsided, and prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand changes [36]. - For iron ore, demand has weakened due to environmental protection restrictions and poor profitability of steel mills, while supply has increased as domestic port arrivals are expected to rebound and domestic mine production is recovering. The market sentiment has improved, and rising freight rates provide some support, but the upward driving force is not strong. The future trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to steel performance [37].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The integration and synergistic effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy will be emphasized to support economic growth [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's consumer market size is expected to rank first in the world when adjusted for purchasing power parity [3] - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission projected that this year's GDP increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke showing a weak trend, with the total holding of coking coal increasing month - on - month. This week, the output of the five major steel products remained basically flat month - on - month, with an increase in rebar and a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The overall inventory continued to increase month - on - month, mainly due to rebar. The overall apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. This week, both the molten iron output and the profitability rate of steel mills decreased month - on - month, mainly because multiple production areas were affected by environmental protection maintenance, leading to a decline in the rigid demand for coking coal and coke. However, the current geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities through the expectation of supply tightening. In the future, focus should be on the trend of molten iron output, mine operation, the policy orientation of the Two Sessions, and the geopolitical situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months of coking coal and coke were 1676.5, 1401.0, 1105.5, 1745.0, 1200.0, 1840.0 respectively, with price changes of 8.5, 3.0, - 1.0, 1.5, 4.5, - 3.0 and price change rates of 0.27%, - 0.07%, 0.77%, 0.13%, 0.16%, - 0.17% compared to the day before. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 3594, 967615, 82388, 127, 16636, 1095 respectively, and the open interests were 1230, 36823, 14347, 2932, 488493, 105596 respectively. The changes in open interests were 223, - 4342, 21, - 268, 107, - 16540 respectively. [2] - **Price Spread**: The current values of price spreads such as 1 - 5 months, 9 - 1 months, 5 - 9 months were - 79.5, - 77.5, 240, - 160.5, 160.5, - 83 respectively, with changes of 2.5, 429.5, 2, 306, - 308.5, - 431.5 respectively. [2] Spot Price - The current spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, such as Taiyuan rail - side price, port self - pick - up price, ex - factory price, etc., were 1373, 1175, 1480, 1855, 1330, 1470 respectively, with changes of - 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively. [2] Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held on the morning of the 5th. The government work report stated that the main expected target for development in 2026 is an economic growth of 4.5% - 5%. The deficit ratio in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan are planned to be issued. A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. [2]

Group 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Group 2: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating" [5]. - The core logic is that yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The government work report of the Two Sessions pointed out that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and various policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Due to the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the policy preference is expected to be mainly structurally loose, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. The upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are both limited. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "bullish". The reference view is "range - bound" [1][5]. - The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rebounded. A - share trading volume reached 2.41 trillion yuan, up from 2.39 trillion yuan the previous day. With the outbreak of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the willingness of funds to take profits increased, leading to a decline in the stock index from its high. After the negative news was gradually digested by the market, the downward momentum of the stock index weakened significantly. With the convening of the Two Sessions, the expectation of policy - based support for macro - demand and support for technological innovation has increased. The government work report pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and favorable policies will be deployed in areas such as expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system. There is strong policy support for the stock index to rise in the medium and long term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is the implementation of favorable policies during the Two Sessions [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is the rebound of each stock index, changes in trading volume, the impact of geopolitical risks, and the policy expectations during the Two Sessions [5].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 230 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 5, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, where the bidding amount and the winning amount were both 230 billion yuan. On the same day, 320.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 297.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains overall loose, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly rising and hovering around 1.27%. The overnight quote on the anonymous click system (X-repo) remains at 1.25%, indicating ample funding supply. In the overseas market, the overnight financing rate in the U.S. is at 3.70% [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank rates for bonds mostly increased, with long-term bonds showing resilience. The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.557%, unchanged from the previous day [8][9]. Group 4: Government Work Report Highlights - The government work report sets the economic growth target for this year at 4.5%-5%, with a focus on achieving better results. The urban survey unemployment rate is targeted at around 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs expected. The consumer price index is aimed to rise by about 2% [13]. - The report outlines a proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate planned at around 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan [13]. - The report emphasizes the need to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, supporting regions in utilizing policies effectively to mitigate hidden debt risks [13]. Group 5: Future Monetary Policy - To maintain liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct an 800 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on March 6, with a term of three months (91 days). On the same day, 1 trillion yuan of buyout reverse repos will mature [14]. Group 6: Global Macro Insights - The Reserve Bank of India is likely increasing support for the bond market due to inflation risks from rising oil prices, with net purchases of bonds amounting to 522 billion rupees (approximately 5.7 billion USD) in the past nine days [16]. - Japan's Prime Minister nominated two pro-inflation scholars to the Bank of Japan's policy committee, leading to a significant rise in long-term government bond yields and a weaker yen, which boosted the Japanese stock market [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices as key considerations for monetary policy, as stated in the 2026 Government Work Report [4] - Since Q4 2025, positive factors driving price recovery have been accumulating, with the CPI year-on-year increase reaching 0.8% in December, up 1.2 percentage points from August [4] - The expectation of achieving a CPI increase of around 2% this year is deemed conditional, influenced by various policy measures aimed at improving supply and demand relationships [4] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between bond yields and economic indicators, suggesting that bond yields may rise in response to price indicators or fall in response to economic growth indicators [5] - It highlights that the current economic situation and financing conditions are the fundamental factors affecting monetary policy, which in turn influences interest rates [5] - The report indicates that the recent internal and external factors restricting interest rate cuts have eased, with the timing of policy implementation depending on economic performance [6] Group 3 - The average manufacturing PMI for January and February was 49.15%, indicating a decline below the 25th percentile of the previous 16 months [6] - Following the formation of interest rate cut expectations, the 10-year government bond yield is projected to move down to a range of 1.7% to 1.8% [6] - The current spread between the 10-year government bond and the 7-day OMO is less than 40 basis points, which is historically low, suggesting limited room for further compression [7]

Economic Growth and Policy - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a steady economic recovery[4] - In 2025, the GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan with an actual growth rate of 5.0%, meeting the government's target[4] - The urban unemployment rate is aimed to be controlled at around 5.5%, with a goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs[4] Inflation and Price Control - The consumer price index (CPI) target for 2026 is set at approximately 2%, allowing for sufficient policy flexibility while stabilizing prices[5] - In January 2026, the CPI showed a year-on-year decline, indicating a moderate inflation level, with expectations for a gradual recovery in inflation[6] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[7] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds[7] - A moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning money supply growth with economic growth targets[14] Domestic Demand and Investment - The government emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a primary task, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment[8] - Specific measures include implementing consumption stimulus actions and enhancing income for low-income groups[15] Capital Market and Investment Environment - Policies will be introduced to stabilize the stock market and enhance the entry of long-term funds, improving market resilience and risk management[9] - The report indicates a focus on improving the quality of listed companies and investment value, which is expected to attract more long-term capital[11]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% to 5%, reflecting a pragmatic policy approach and considering both internal and external pressures on the economy [4][5] - The adjustment in the growth target aims to balance quality and reasonable growth, laying a foundation for high-quality economic development [5] Fiscal Policy - The proposed deficit rate for 2026 is around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [7] - Public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, with a focus on optimizing expenditure structure to support consumption and improve living standards [9][10] Tax and Financial Reforms - The government plans to advance tax and financial system reforms, including increasing the proportion of state-owned capital returns and enhancing local tax systems [12] - The emphasis on zero-based budgeting aims to optimize fund allocation and improve the efficiency of fiscal spending [12] Employment and Income - The urban survey unemployment rate target is set at around 5.5%, reflecting the need for policies to stabilize employment amid structural pressures [18] - The government aims to synchronize resident income growth with economic growth, emphasizing measures to increase income for low-income groups and improve social security systems [20][22] Environmental Goals - The target for reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP is set at around 3.8%, aligning with the goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030 [26][27] - The shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control reflects the need for a more precise approach to managing carbon emissions [27][28] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The government plans to implement a systematic approach to deepen state-owned enterprise reforms, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned capital and structural adjustments [29][30] - The emphasis on improving the modern enterprise system aims to enhance corporate governance and promote market-oriented reforms [31] Open Economy - The government intends to further expand high-level opening-up, focusing on service sector liberalization and enhancing international cooperation [35][36] - The approach aims to balance reform depth with security, promoting a competitive and fair business environment [36] Agricultural and Rural Development - The government is set to promote agricultural insurance development and enhance comprehensive disaster prevention capabilities in agriculture [59] - Policies will focus on improving rural elderly care services and implementing long-term care insurance systems to address the challenges of an aging population [45][47] Capital Market Stability - Measures to stabilize the stock market include comprehensive policies to enhance market confidence and promote active trading [54] - The government aims to improve the mechanism for long-term capital entering the market, ensuring a stable and healthy capital market [63] Innovation and Technology - The government plans to cultivate emerging and future industries, encouraging state-owned enterprises to lead in opening application scenarios for new technologies [69][70] - Support for artificial intelligence and open-source community development is expected to drive innovation and commercialization in various sectors [75]