今年1-11月，在政策支持、产业突破等利好因素的背景下，A股结构性行情突出。其中，部分"小而美"私募凭借着灵活性和适应性，在中小盘股 整体表现占优的"慢牛"行情下，展现出较强的进攻性和爆发力。 私募排排网数据显示，规模为0-5亿的私募共有6195家，占所有私募总数的81.86%。其中，今年来至少有3只产品符合排名规则的私募共有238 家，平均收益为29.2%。 那么，究竟有哪些规模为0-5亿私募在今年的行情中表现更优呢？接下来，笔者将根据投资模式进行划分，盘点今年来收益位列10强的"小而 美"量化私募、主观私募和混合型私募。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 0 1 量化"小而美"：京盈智投、锦望投资、广州天钲瀚位列10强 在量化私募中，至少有3只产品符合排名规则的私募共有47家，今年来平均收益为 *** %，其中10强私募的上榜门槛为 *** %。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募产品不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫码查看收益数据。] 在10强量化私募中，核心策略为股票策略的私募有5家，占据半壁江山；另外还有3家私募为期货及衍生品策略，2家私 ...

但作为一个用量化系统做了十几年交易的老鸟，我太清楚这些政策利好背后藏着什么猫腻。记得2019年券商板块集体涨停那次吗？当时多少人喊着"史诗级 行情"，结果三个月后追高的人全被套在山顶。现在这场景，活脱脱就是历史重演。 二、牛股背后的肮脏小秘密 一、政策暖风下的冰火两重天 最近金融圈炸开了锅。证监会给优质券商"松绑"的风声刚出，金融监管总局就跟着下调了险资持仓风险因子。看着新闻里"764亿增量资金"、"杠杆率提升至 6倍"这些字眼，我那个炒股二十年的老舅激动得连夜给我打电话："这次真的要牛市了！" 我用量化系统做过一个残酷的实验：把过去五年所有突破前高的股票分成两组。A组是突破时伴有机构资金显著流入的，B组是单纯技术面突破的。结果A 组后续三个月平均涨幅27%，B组反而下跌3%。 任何股票想要走牛，都得解决两个恶心的问题：跟风盘和获利盘。这就像开自助餐厅，第一批客人把龙虾抢光后，后面的人就只能吃剩菜。主力机构可比餐 厅老板精明多了，他们发明了个叫"洗盘"的损招。 所谓洗盘，就是大资金故意把股价往下砸，制造出要崩盘的假象。等散户吓得割肉逃跑，他们再偷偷把筹码捡回来。我用量化系统追踪过3000多次洗盘案 例，发现最 ...

Core Insights - The report from TD Securities predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,400, indicating a potential 10% increase from current levels, which is a significant shift from last year's excitement over breaking the $4,000 mark [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The report discusses terms like "de-dollarization," "supply recovery," and "hidden inventory," suggesting that institutions are strategically positioning themselves in the market [2] - There is a notable discrepancy between the physical silver inventory in London (2.12 million ounces) and the narrative of supply tightness being portrayed in Shanghai, indicating a potential manipulation of market perceptions [2] Group 2: Investment Risks - The current market phase before a potential gold price surge is characterized by volatility, which can lead to two contrasting strategies: "accumulation" by institutions or "distribution" to retail investors [2] - Traditional technical analysis may fail to provide clear guidance during this period, leaving retail investors vulnerable to making poor decisions [3] Group 3: Data-Driven Insights - Quantitative analysis reveals that the behavior of stocks can be misleading; while some may appear to be in a recovery phase, they may actually be part of a larger institutional strategy [4][7] - The left-side stock's recovery aligns with institutional inventory activity, while the right-side stock's rebound is primarily driven by retail investors, highlighting the importance of understanding underlying market dynamics [9][11] Group 4: Silver Market Analysis - The prediction of silver prices dropping back to $40 is supported by the substantial inventory levels in London, suggesting that claims of supply tightness are unfounded [12] - The emphasis on quantitative data over narrative-driven analysis underscores the need for investors to critically assess market signals and institutional intentions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The debut of "Mole Thread," the first domestic GPU stock, on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw its stock price surge over 500% on the first day, leading to significant profits for early investors, particularly the private equity firm "Huanfang Quantitative" which made a substantial investment [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mole Thread's initial offering price was 114.28 yuan, and it opened at 650 yuan, resulting in a paper profit exceeding 32 million yuan for Huanfang Quantitative, which acquired 61,300 shares for over 7 million yuan [1]. - Huanfang Quantitative's funds have reportedly achieved returns exceeding 50% this year, significantly outperforming the market indices, which have only risen about 23% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise of quantitative trading firms has changed market dynamics, allowing them to execute thousands of trades in milliseconds, creating volatility and rapid price movements that can be disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of companies [3][4]. - The presence of numerous quantitative players with similar strategies can lead to erratic market behavior, such as sudden stock price spikes or crashes, often driven by algorithmic trading rather than company performance [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - The competitive landscape for retail investors has become more challenging as they now face algorithmic trading strategies that operate on speed and data, making traditional fundamental analysis less effective [3][4]. - The efficiency brought by quantitative funds has increased market volatility, raising questions about whether this "machine trading" model benefits retail investors or complicates their investment strategies [4].

Core Insights - In November, the A-share market experienced a decline in trading volume, rapid sector rotation, and pressure on heavyweight stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.67%, Shenzhen Component Index by 2.95%, and ChiNext by 4.23% [2] - Despite the market conditions, 61% of the private equity products under billion-yuan private equity firms reached historical net value highs, with 389 products achieving this milestone [2] - Quantitative products dominated the performance, with 324 out of 389 products being quantitative, accounting for over 80% of the total [3] Product Strategy Overview - The majority of products were equity strategy products, totaling 312, with quantitative long positions making up 240 and subjective long positions 33 [3] - Multi-asset strategy products accounted for 39, bond strategy products for 27, futures and derivatives strategy products for 9, and combination fund products for 2 [3] Performance of Private Equity Firms - 24 billion-yuan private equity firms had all their products reach historical net value highs in November, with 18 being quantitative and 4 subjective [3] - Notable firms with over 10 products include Ri Dou Investment, Jiu Kun Investment, Tian Yan Capital, Ming Long Investment, and Ningbo Huanfang Quantitative [4] Top Performing Products - The top-performing private equity firms for the year-to-date include Ling Jun Investment, Ningbo Huanfang Quantitative, Cheng Qi Asset, Tian Yan Capital, and Jin Ge Liang Rui, all of which are billion-yuan quantitative private equity firms [4] - The highest number of products reaching historical highs was led by Ju Kuan Investment with 40 products, achieving a 93.02% success rate [12][14] Recent Trends in Quantitative Strategies - The article highlights that quantitative strategies are more adaptable to different market environments, allowing for stable alpha returns [2] - Firms like Ningbo Huanfang Quantitative and Ming Long Investment have successfully integrated AI into their investment strategies, enhancing their performance [11][19] Long-Term Performance Metrics - Over the past year, the threshold for the top 20 products was set at a return of over ***%, with 17 being quantitative long products [15] - In the last three years, the top products also featured a significant number of quantitative strategies, with notable firms like Ju Kuan Investment and A Ba Ma Investment leading the rankings [19] - For the last five years, subjective long products dominated the top rankings, with Ri Dou Investment and Jiu Kun Investment securing the top spots [22][26]

Group 1 - The core message highlights the competitive landscape between AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI, with both companies potentially aiming for IPOs at valuations exceeding 300 billion and 1 trillion respectively [1] - The current market is likened to a reality show, where beneath a calm surface, significant activities are taking place, similar to the dynamics observed in the A-share market [3] - The rapid switching of market hotspots indicates a shift in investment strategies, with liquidity being abundant but institutional investors employing advanced trading techniques that render traditional tactics ineffective [6] Group 2 - Foreign investors exhibit a dualistic approach, publicly distancing themselves from speculative stocks while actively investing in restructuring concepts, showcasing a disconnect between their statements and actions [7] - The importance of observing actual market behaviors over mere rhetoric is emphasized, suggesting that true investment insights come from analyzing financial flows rather than listening to narratives [9] - The case of Wenyitech demonstrates that institutional investors often position themselves ahead of market movements, indicating that understanding large capital behaviors is crucial in the current trading environment [14] Group 3 - The urgency for Anthropic and OpenAI to go public is driven by the need to capitalize on favorable market conditions, reflecting a broader strategy of realizing profits at peak expectations [17] - The analysis suggests that even in a bull market, a significant portion of industries may still experience declines, underscoring the necessity for retail investors to grasp the underlying market dynamics [17] - Recommendations for ordinary investors include focusing on data over narratives, monitoring actual capital flows, and utilizing appropriate analytical tools to navigate the complexities of modern trading [18]

Market Overview - The market has shown a lack of momentum, with a significant decrease in trading volume by 280 billion, effectively reversing the previous day's gains, and over 3,700 stocks declining [1] - The strategy suggested by CITIC Securities, described as "squat, hit, and withdraw," reflects the cautious behavior of institutional investors who are focused on profit-taking and risk management as year-end approaches [3] Fund Flows - Recent data on ETF net inflows indicates that after a period of market decline, buying interest emerged, but subsequent rebounds led to a reduction in positions, highlighting a lack of sustained buying momentum [5] Economic Indicators - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11, where a potential rate cut is anticipated, and the economic work conference, which typically occurs around the same time [6] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell by 0.5 points to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months, with new orders and backlogs also showing significant declines [7] Company News - DeepSeek has released two new models, DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale, with the former achieving performance levels comparable to GPT-5, yet the market response has been muted [7] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) hosted its annual cloud computing event, "AWS Re:Invent 2025," which may influence market sentiment in the tech sector [9] Stock Performance - As of the latest close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.69%, with various sectors showing mixed performance [12] - Notable stock movements include Credo's earnings exceeding expectations, resulting in a post-market surge of over 14%, positively impacting related sectors in A-shares [9] Sector Analysis - The oil and petrochemical, light industry manufacturing, home appliances, and telecommunications sectors led the market gains, while media, non-ferrous metals, computing, and biopharmaceuticals faced declines [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank is focusing on high-quality development by enhancing its services to the real economy and deepening financial reforms, aiming for a synergistic leap in scale, efficiency, and quality while continuously showcasing its comprehensive competitiveness in the market [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The bank's financial market business asset scale exceeded 500 billion yuan by June 2025, with significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [2] - The bond trading volume reached 2.3 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 71% year-on-year increase, while bond lending transactions grew by 178%, increasing market share to 2.83% [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The bank is driving business innovation through technology, integrating fintech with financial market operations, and implementing key projects like quantitative trading platforms and RPA robots, which have improved automation processing efficiency by over 60% [3] - An intelligent research and investment system has been established, enhancing market analysis and decision-making capabilities to support business innovation and stable operations [3] Group 3: Innovation and Market Position - The bank has actively engaged in innovative business layouts, participating in various initiatives at the foreign exchange trading center, and has been recognized as the "Annual Market Influential Institution" for 2024 in the interbank local currency market [4] - The bank's innovative business has completed over 30,000 transactions with a trading volume exceeding 7 trillion yuan, demonstrating its professional execution capabilities and rapid market responsiveness [4] - Significant achievements in the bond market innovation pilot include steady expansion of counter-trade business and breakthroughs in green finance, such as the successful implementation of carbon emission reduction re-loan pledge business [4]

一、半导体新贵登场，市场暗流涌动 这周A股市场要热闹了。12月5日，两只科创板新股即将申购——沐曦股份和昂瑞微。一家搞GPU芯片，一家玩射频前端，都是硬科技领域的狠角色。看着 招股书上那些高大上的技术参数和宏伟蓝图，我不禁想起当年在复旦读书时第一次接触量化交易系统的场景。 二、牛市幻觉：看得见的机会不等于抓得住 沐曦股份号称国产GPU领军企业，产品覆盖AI计算、图形渲染等领域。招股书说他们卖了25000多颗芯片，应用在10多个智算中心。昂瑞微也不赖，专精特 新"小巨人"，产品进了荣耀、三星的供应链。表面上看都是香饽饽，但仔细一看财报——嚯！都在亏钱呢。 这让我想起一个老段子：科技公司上市就像相亲，PPT上写的都是优点，缺点得靠你自己去发现。作为量化交易的老兵，我太清楚这些光鲜亮丽的数据背后 藏着多少猫腻了。 说到这儿，不得不提一个残酷的现实：大多数人在牛市中赚的都是纸上富贵。行情好的时候，早涨晚涨都是涨？放屁！没有量化数据支撑的判断，跟蒙着眼 睛开车有什么区别？ 我见过太多散户犯同样的错误：看到股票涨了就冲进去，跌了就慌不择路地跑。结果呢？要么赚个仨瓜俩枣就溜了，要么死扛到底变成长期股东。说到底， 就是没搞明 ...

最近朋友圈被基金发行消息刷屏了。12月刚开头，40只新基金就扎堆上市，光是首日就有28只同时开售。永赢、财通这些大牌基金公司都在推新产品，招 商、广发的明星基金经理也纷纷出马。看着这些专业机构如此密集的动作，我不禁想起自己刚入市时踩过的那些坑。 | | | | 本周 (12月1日-12月5日) 新基金发行情况一览 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 基金简称 | 投资类型 | 募集起始日 | 夏集份额上 限(亿份) | 基金托管人 | 基金经理 | | 1 | 易方达创业板50ETF联接A | 被动指数型基金 | 2025-12-01 | 80 | 交通银行 | 李博扬 | | 2 | 中航卓越领航A | 偏股混合型基金 | 2025-12-01 | | 中国邮政储蓄银行 | 方岑 | | 3 | 万家如意添瑞三个月持有A | 准导致FOF真ぞ | 2025-12-01 | | 招商银行 | 瞿晴 | | 4 | 汇添富上证科创板200指数A | 被动指数型基金 | 2025-12-01 | | 交通银行 | 品賞 | | 5 ...