Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

2025年07月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：小幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期仍存，价格存支撑 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 ...

Group 1 - Canada has announced an expansion of steel import tariffs, effective from August 1, to address U.S. steel tariffs and global overcapacity, while excluding the U.S. from these tariffs [1][3] - The new tariffs include a 25% additional tax on steel products containing Chinese melted and cast steel, indicating Canada's alignment with U.S. trade policies against China [3][5] - Canada's actions are seen as an attempt to appease the U.S. and support the return of American manufacturing, despite the negative impact on its own steel industry [3][5] Group 2 - The recent tariff measures raise questions about Canada's commitment to constructive dialogue with China, as expressed by Canadian Foreign Minister Anand at the ASEAN meeting [6] - China has significant trade relations with Canada, particularly in canola, with annual trade worth approximately $2 billion, and Canada has been a major supplier of canola to China [8] - The potential shift of canola trade to Australia, following recent agreements, could negatively impact Canada's agricultural exports to China [8][11]

中国用3个月时间，送给特朗普一记重击，命中了美国霸权的根基。 美国财政部日前公布的数据显示，中国在5月份减持了9亿美元的国债。算上4月减持的82亿美元，以及3月减持的189亿美元，中国已经连续3个月减持美国国 债。 【此前特朗普展示了一张美债在不断增长的图】 同时，这也意味着在3月份从美国第二大"债主"，变成第三大"债主"后，中国依旧维持了这个新的位置。 根据美方的最新数据，美国的第一大"债主"依旧是日本，持有超过1.1万亿的美债。第二大"债主"是英国，持有超过8000亿美元的美债。 中国持有的美债则为7563亿美元。 长期以来，中国在美债上的一举一动，总是相当引人注目，这一次自然也不例外。况且，今年3到5月确实是一个特殊的时间点。 3月份刚好是特朗普关税战的"预告期"；中美关税战开打的时间在4月初；经过了一个多月的交锋，中美于5月中旬在日内瓦举行了会谈。 很显然，中国在3到5月减持美债的做法，与特朗普的关税战大概率是存在联系的。 【中国5月份持有美国国债连续第三个月下降】 通过减持美债，中国可以降低美债价格，提高其收益率，使得美方的融资成本进一步增加。 要知道，美国如今的债务问题已经亮起了预警的红灯。前段时 ...

8月1日贸易谈判截止日期临近，投资者对贸易关税的担忧重新抬头，市场质疑当前美股创纪录涨势的可持续性，同时等待本周特斯 拉、谷歌等大型科技公司财报，以寻找企业在关税压力下表现的线索。 加密货币市场继续分化，比特币涨0.2%至11.7万美元上方，以太坊跌1.9%至3685.85美元。 纯碱期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅8%，报1375元/吨。 22日周二，亚太股指多数承压，MSCI亚洲股指下跌0.4%，日本股市与日元同步走低。美股期货基本持平，欧洲股指期货走弱。美元 指数小幅走强。此外，黄金、原油价格走低，比特币突破11.7万美元。 以下为核心资产走势: 标普500期货基本持平，纳指100指数期货跌约0.1%。 欧股开盘下跌，泛欧股指跌超0.2%，德股跌超0.3%。 MSCI亚洲股指下跌0.4%，日经225指数收跌0.1%。 日元兑美元跌超0.3%。美元指数涨超0.1%。欧元兑美元跌约0.1%。美元兑离岸人民币基本持平。 美债价格小幅上涨，基准10年期美债收益率基本持平。 现货黄金跌超0.3%，现货白银短线转涨，现基本持平。 美油跌约0.9%，布油跌约0.7%。 | ■ US 30 | 44,344.50 | 44, ...

不过，他预期，香港房地产市场会处于整固状态，但商铺租金未必会有太大改善。 许长泰仍建议投资股债比例维持6:4，美股方面偏好大型股，不建议投资中型股，因为大型企业资金充 裕，若市场利率高企，将增加中型企业融资成本。他还建议投资者投资美股时，可同时买入期权，因为 一旦股票下跌可在期权中收息作抵销。他亦看好欧洲股市，但当中不建议投资奢侈品股。 摩根资产管理亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰预期，美联储下周不会减息，而9月减息的机会亦不大，料 最早要到10月份才有机会减息、甚至可能要推迟至12月或2026年才减。许长泰预期，美联储下半年只减 息一次，幅度为25点子。他估计，即使8月1日后，美国向多个国家或地区加征关税，美股虽料仍会波 动，但波幅不会如4月初公布"解放日"后般大。另外，许长泰仍建议投资股债比例维持6:4. 他估计，美联储迟迟未减息，除因忧虑关税战会推高美国通胀外，美国经济数据不算差亦是因为之一， 市场正关注6-7月份通胀会否受到关税影响而上升。此外，他亦忧虑美国总统特朗普不断挑战美联储的 独立性，会令美国债息持续高企。 他表示，美元汇价由1月至今已贬值11%，美汇在过去10年平均两年半有调整，料美元于未来2-3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in Cross-Border M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has initiated a series of offline seminars to discuss and exchange views on these topics with experts from various fields [1] Group 2: Event Information - An upcoming seminar in Shanghai on August 5, 2025, will focus on the challenges and potential opportunities faced by Chinese companies in the M&A process [2][3] - The agenda includes multiple thematic discussions, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and considerations regarding Chinese companies' overseas M&A [2][3] Group 3: Expert Speakers - The event will feature prominent speakers, including Xiang Chen, who has nearly 15 years of experience in overseas investment and cross-border M&A, having led numerous projects across various regions and industries [4] - Other experts include Luo Xingguo, a professor with extensive research in financial derivatives and risk management, and Feng Kai, a senior data manager specializing in M&A data [5][8]

前言： 美国最近对俄罗斯发出公开威胁，计划对其实施高达100%的关税。而中国和印度在这场风波中也意外 被卷入。然而，真正让西方感到恐惧的是，俄罗斯对此威胁并毫不畏惧。这究竟是什么原因呢？ 早前，特朗普曾明确表示，如果俄乌冲突在50天内没有得到解决，他将对俄罗斯施加100%的关税。这 一赤裸裸的威胁反映出特朗普耐心的彻底耗尽。在他竞选之时，承诺要迅速解决俄乌危机，如今却依然 没有任何进展，这让他面子大失，尽管他努力进行斡旋，却收效甚微。渐渐地，特朗普失去了耐心，最 终决定用关税作为威胁，希望迫使俄罗斯做出妥协。然而，对于俄罗斯来说，这样的威胁毫无威慑力。 之所以俄罗斯对此并不畏惧，可以归结为三个方面的原因。首先，自俄乌冲突爆发以来，美西方国家对 俄罗斯的制裁已经超过万项。尽管初期对其经济造成了一定的冲击，但如今俄罗斯的经济不仅逐渐恢 复，甚至实现了增长，展现出强大的韧性。其次，即使美国真的实施了100%的关税，对俄罗斯的影响 也将微乎其微。俄罗斯的能源出口已经形成了新的市场模式，尽管欧洲市场高呼抵制，但实际上，他们 依然依赖俄罗斯的石油和天然气。即使关税增加，欧洲国家也会继续秘密购买俄罗斯的能源，从而不会 对其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed concerns over the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian products, indicating potential for a trade war if negotiations do not yield results [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Lula stated that Brazilian Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, and Trade, Alckmin, is negotiating with the U.S. alongside the Brazilian Foreign Ministry [1] - The President criticized the rationale behind the tariffs, arguing that it is inappropriate to use judicial rulings to threaten any party involved [1] - Lula highlighted that the U.S. President Trump lacks understanding of the trade surplus situation, noting that Brazil has faced a trade deficit of $410 billion with the U.S. over the past 15 years [1]

Group 1 - The overall macroeconomic environment last week was neutral to slightly positive, with Trump initially pressuring Powell and rumors of his potential dismissal, which led to a temporary rebound in copper prices before being denied by Trump [1][3] - Inflation data met expectations, reflecting the impact of tariffs on inflation, which caused the market to reduce expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, putting pressure on prices [1][3] - Gold prices showed a strong performance, supported by market resilience and expectations of potential interest rate cuts, despite ongoing tariff risks [4][50] Group 2 - Last week, COMEX gold fell by 0.44% and silver by 1.66%, while SHFE gold and silver rose by 0.45% and 2.58% respectively [2] - The copper market saw a slight rebound, with SHFE copper prices returning above 79,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive sentiment from urban renewal meetings and expectations of further measures against "involution" [6][49] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was -43.20 USD/ton, showing a slight increase, with the market remaining relatively stable [8] Group 3 - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, maintaining a contango structure, while COMEX copper inventories exceeded 240,000 tons, indicating potential for further accumulation [6] - The domestic market for electrolytic copper saw a slight increase in inventory, with total stocks at 144,400 tons, reflecting limited demand from downstream processing enterprises [14] - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods increased, particularly in East China, although overall demand remains limited due to seasonal factors [16] Group 4 - The gold and silver prices fluctuated at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 3,314 and 3,389 USD/oz, and silver between 37.6 and 39.6 USD/oz [19] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 445,000 ounces to 37.19 million ounces, while silver inventory rose by about 232,000 ounces to 49.724 million ounces [35] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 944 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 100 tons to 14,658 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment [40]