Group 1 - The China Development Forum 2025 agenda has been officially released, highlighting its significance as a platform for dialogue between Chinese government leaders, global business leaders, international organizations, and scholars [2][4]. - The theme for this year's forum is "Fully Releasing Development Potential, Jointly Promoting Stable Global Economic Growth," focusing on macro policies, new growth drivers, boosting consumption, new productivity, artificial intelligence, green development, and institutional openness [4]. Group 2 - The forum has been held since 2000 and is organized by the Development Research Center of the State Council, with the China Development Research Foundation as the executing body [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets as part of the overall economic strategy [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged despite current challenges, with a focus on enhancing consumer demand and stabilizing employment [4][9]. - It emphasizes the need for a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth, with specific targets set for GDP growth, employment, and inflation [9][10][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report assesses the economic situation as complex and severe, with external shocks impacting trade and technology sectors, while internal challenges include insufficient effective demand and local government financial difficulties [4][5]. - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with previous years, aimed at balancing short-term employment needs and long-term development goals [9]. Employment and Inflation Targets - The employment target remains at over 12 million new urban jobs, with a target urban unemployment rate of around 5.5%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the job market [10][13]. - The inflation target is set at around 2%, the lowest since 2004, indicating a cautious approach to managing price levels amid current economic conditions [14][15]. Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Fiscal policy is projected to be more proactive, with a total fiscal space expanding to 13.86 trillion yuan, a 26.5% increase from the previous year [16][20]. - Monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity while supporting economic growth, with expectations for social financing and money supply growth around 8% [21][22]. Key Initiatives - The report prioritizes boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with specific actions planned to enhance consumer spending [28][32]. - It emphasizes the integration of technological innovation with industrial development, particularly in emerging sectors such as AI and biotechnology [33][34]. Capital Market Insights - The report indicates a shift in the A-share market from concept-driven to performance-driven dynamics, particularly in the technology sector, with a focus on real earnings rather than speculative growth [62][63]. - It suggests that the bond market may experience short-term interest rate increases but will trend downwards in the medium term due to continued monetary easing [72]. Regional Development and Urbanization - The report outlines strategies for promoting new urbanization and regional coordination, aiming to enhance public services for migrant populations and stimulate housing demand [56][57]. - It highlights the importance of fostering new growth areas through coordinated regional strategies, particularly in economically significant provinces [61].

Domestic Market Analysis - The monetary policy includes a 1.901 billion CNY operation of the Standing Lending Facility in February, with an end balance of 1.3 billion CNY[2] - The future scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation is set to expand to between 800 billion and 1 trillion CNY[2] - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a deficit ratio of 4%[2] - In February, the Caixin Services PMI was at 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI was at 50.8[2] - Exports grew by 3.4% in January-February, while imports fell by 7.3%[2] International Market Analysis - The U.S. economy showed a slight increase in overall activity since mid-January, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book[3] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[3] - The Atlanta Fed revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP forecast, expecting a contraction of over 2.8%[3] Strategic Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and U.S. Treasury bonds (-TU) is recommended[4] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2506-1×T2506) is advised[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and risks associated with U.S. and European debt are highlighted[5] - The risk of yen appreciation is also noted[5]

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes implementing more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation[3] - Recent policies focus on enhancing service trade and consumption, with significant meetings discussing government work reports and economic strategies[12] - The State Council has initiated measures to improve the quality of elderly care services, aiming to enhance service supply and expand coverage[4] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies have been introduced to support high-quality development in the new energy storage manufacturing sector, with a focus on innovation-driven growth[14] - The government is launching pilot programs for public sector vehicles in ten cities, aiming to promote the market application of new energy vehicles[15] Monetary Policy - The central bank is exploring the expansion of its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, aiming to innovate policy tools[16] - A macro-prudential work meeting highlighted the need to strengthen financial management in key areas[17] Consumer Policy - A three-year action plan (2025-2027) has been launched to optimize the consumer environment, focusing on improving supply quality and consumer rights protection[18] Financial Regulation - Financial regulators are increasing support for private enterprises, particularly small and micro businesses, to ensure stable credit supply[20] - New regulations allow Hong Kong and Macau banks to offer foreign currency card services in mainland China starting March 1, 2025[21] Trade Relations - China is willing to cooperate with the EU on green industry initiatives, including electric vehicles, amidst ongoing trade tensions[22] - President Xi Jinping and President Putin reaffirmed their commitment to deepening practical cooperation between China and Russia[22] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting March 4, 2025, as part of ongoing trade tensions[28] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about monetary policy, indicating a potential pause in interest rate changes while monitoring inflation trends[30] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations[33]

作者：余 飞 01 深圳，房价抬头 去年四季度以来的救市，深圳是最先、最快收到效果，同时也是救市效果最好的城市之一。 新房方面，去年10月份深圳新房网签4153套，一改之前在2000套上下低迷的数据，11月份更是拉升至8076套，12月份仍高达6769套。 来源：每日楼市早读 四季度拉动下，全年新房网签量超过了2023年。 来源：每日楼市早读 二手房，回暖势头更加明显。 网签量9月份只有3191套，10月份直接翻倍至6118套，冲破了荣枯线（5000套），11月份继续增加至7125套，12月份则冲破了8000套的繁荣线，为8282 套。 来源：每日楼市早读 同时，深圳二手房成交价格7月份跌破6万元后，10月份不但再次冲破6万元，而且直接拉升到6.3万元。 2024全年二手房成交量在四季度猛攻下，创下了2021年来新高。 来源：每日楼市早读 这种回暖的势头，延续到如今。 乐有家最新公布的2月份春节月数据，深圳一手住宅预售+现售2484套。 这一数据，环比当然下跌了不少，毕竟是春节月数据。2024年2月同样是春节月，因此同比数据最有可比性，今年春节月相比于去年春节月，同比增长 141%，也即翻了一倍不止。 来源： ...

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行 2 月 28 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2845 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.5% 。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1825 亿元逆回购到 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1020 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 月末最后一个交易日，银行间市场周五资金面早盘一度均衡偏紧价格居高，随后大行供给增多，逐步向均衡偏宽格局改善，存款类机构主要回购加 权利率均走低。 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 2% 附近，较上日变化不大。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | 3Y | | 5Y | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.6100 0.00 | 25 | 1.4400 ▼2.00 | 47 | 1.5200 ▼1.50 | 13 | 1.6025 ▼3. ...