Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened, focusing on effective release of domestic demand potential and deepening reforms [1][4] - The current economic situation is characterized by strong resilience, with GDP growth in the first half of the year reaching 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued by the end of June [5] - Emphasis was placed on structural support in monetary policy, particularly for small and micro enterprises, to stabilize employment and residents' income [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is centered on promoting consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing employment and expanding demand [6] Group 3 - The meeting proposed to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition [7] - There is a need for timely support policies for foreign trade enterprises affected by external uncertainties, including financial support and optimizing export tax rebate policies [8][9] - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively and orderly addressing local government debt risks and prohibiting the addition of new hidden debts [10] Group 4 - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, focusing on improving investment return expectations and resource allocation [11] - Suggestions were made to lower operational thresholds for capital market support tools and to create new financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [11]

人民财讯7月30日电，中信建投研报表示，7月政治局会议聚焦"十五五"规划谋划与下半年经济工作，释 放多重政策信号。会议明确"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期， 需衔接多重时间节点。当前经济回升向好但基础仍需巩固，政策取向保持宽松同时留足弹性，若三季度 数据超预期走弱，四季度或启动增量工具。宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细"，财政加快政府债券发行使 用，货币保持流动性充裕，下半年仍有降准降息可能，政府投资基金精准投向战略领域。同时，着力培 育服务消费新增长点，优化市场竞争秩序，增强资本市场吸引力，鼓励企业家以创新与优质产品抢占竞 争主动，推动经济高质量发展。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1 - The global market is entering a critical "72 hours" with a series of important economic data, tech giant earnings reports, and key trade policy events that may significantly impact capital market trends [1][2] - The Chinese Communist Party's Politburo meeting on July 30 discussed the economic situation and plans for the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which exceeded market expectations [4] - The meeting emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance economic recovery [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. will release a series of significant economic data starting July 30, including the second quarter GDP growth, which is expected to show a 3% annualized increase, surpassing the 2.4% forecast [8] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and employment data will be closely monitored, with market expectations leaning towards no rate cut in July due to positive economic indicators [9] - Other economies, including Germany and the Eurozone, will also release key economic data, contributing to the global economic outlook [9] Group 3 - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, will report earnings on July 30 and 31, with a combined market capitalization exceeding $11 trillion, making their performance crucial for the continuation of the stock market rally [10][11] - The tech giants have significantly contributed to the S&P 500 index's gains this year, and high expectations are set for their earnings reports [11] - Analysts predict that capital expenditures for these companies will reach $317 billion this fiscal year, increasing to $350 billion by 2026, indicating strong investment in technology [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of economic work in the second half of the year to achieve the goals set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and focuses on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] Macro Policy - Macro policies need to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, with a focus on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight [2] - The meeting reiterates the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [2][3] Fiscal Policy - The meeting calls for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level [3] - As of the end of June, the budget for special bonds has reached 658.3 billion yuan, indicating a strong push for fiscal policy [3] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in overall financing costs [4] - The meeting does not mention new structural monetary policy tools but emphasizes the effective use of existing ones to support small and micro enterprises, consumption, and foreign trade [4][5] Domestic Demand - The meeting highlights the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [6] - Measures to boost consumption include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption and expanding service consumption [6][7] Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of high-quality investment in infrastructure and stimulating private investment through reduced market access barriers and financial support [7] Technological Innovation - The meeting emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation as a core strategy for high-quality development [8] - Focus areas include strategic emerging industries and future industries, with a goal of fostering new supply to create new demand [8][9] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting underscores the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with policies to support affected foreign trade enterprises [10][11] - The foreign trade sector showed resilience, with imports and exports maintaining a scale of over 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [11] Capital Market - The meeting calls for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate the positive momentum [12] - Reforms should focus on market-oriented, rule-of-law, and internationalization to improve capital allocation efficiency [12] Unified National Market - The meeting proposes deepening the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition order and address current market pain points [13][14] Urban Renewal - The meeting emphasizes high-quality urban renewal as a means to ensure stable economic development, with a focus on transforming old urban areas and improving existing housing stock [15][16] - Urban renewal is seen as a key driver to stimulate housing demand and mitigate risks in the real estate sector [16]

人民财讯7月30日电，国泰海通证券研报表示，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开 中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工作。展望 未来，政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化。一方面，中美博弈的缓 和以及上半年经济数据好于预期降低了短期出台增量刺激政策的紧迫性；另一方面对宏观政策连续性、 灵活性、预见性的要求表明政策依然留有后手，若下半年外部风险再次加大或基本面压力增加，均有可 能"适时加力"增量政策。此外，也应密切关注"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：证券时报 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议引发市场广泛关注，会议中"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加 力""增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"等重磅表述尤为引人 注目，多位卖方研究领域专业人士就此发表深入解读。 在 中信证券首席经济学家明明 看来，本次政治局会议对当前经济形势给予积极评价，我国经 济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量发展取得新成效。同 时，会议也指出当前面临的风险挑战依然较多，外部环境复杂严峻，国内仍存在结构性矛盾， 强调要增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，把握好巩固回升态势与推进结构调整之间的平衡。 国泰海通证券首席宏观分析师梁中华 称，总的来看，本次会议有三个特征，一是对内外部形 势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的 窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊 表示，"巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"一则是对资本市场功能性的 重视；二则是对"924"以来市场定价修复带给宏观经济、微观预期正反馈效应的肯定。 华源证券总经理助理、研究所所长刘晓宁 指出，7月底政治局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on the economic situation and the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policies and effective implementation of fiscal and monetary measures [1][2]. Economic Policy - The meeting highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to enhance the efficiency of government bond issuance and usage [1][4]. - The emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in macroeconomic policies indicates a commitment to maintaining policy continuity while being flexible to adapt to changing economic conditions [3][5]. Consumer Demand - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through initiatives to boost consumption and foster new growth points in service consumption [2][6]. - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, the highest since last year, indicating a strong consumer base that needs to be further supported [6][7]. Investment and Economic Growth - The focus on high-quality infrastructure construction and stimulating private investment is expected to drive effective investment and enhance economic quality [6][7]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds to support investment projects, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan allocated for the year [5][6]. Service Consumption - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for growth, with recommendations to shift subsidy policies towards service consumption and improve the overall service supply [8]. - The meeting acknowledged the unique characteristics of service consumption, which requires targeted measures to address challenges such as income stability and urbanization of the floating population [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to address ongoing economic challenges while maintaining growth momentum, highlighting the importance of stability and flexibility in policy implementation [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the positive performance of major economic indicators and the effective prevention of risks in key areas [1][2]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting called for continuous and timely strengthening of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stability and progress, and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [3][6]. - It was noted that fiscal policy should be more proactive, while monetary policy should remain moderately accommodative [5][7]. Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The meeting outlined key tasks for the second half of the year, including releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, and expanding high-level opening-up [9][14]. - Specific actions include implementing consumption-boosting initiatives, enhancing support for small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [10][12]. Financial Measures - The meeting proposed accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve funding efficiency and support economic recovery [7][8]. - It was suggested that new significant measures may be introduced in the second half to bolster growth, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending [7][8]. Employment and Social Welfare - Emphasis was placed on prioritizing employment, particularly for key groups such as college graduates and veterans, and ensuring the implementation of social welfare policies [16]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining food security and preventing large-scale poverty [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy in the second half of the year is set to "continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner" to promote the recovery of domestic demand and achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% [2][3]. - The "anti - involution" policy will be steadily advanced, and it is expected that CPI and PPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year [4]. - Fiscal policy emphasizes accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, and attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - Monetary policy maintains a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened [7]. - The bond market will experience increased volatility, and the investment strategy should be defensive [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Macro - policy orientation - The macro - policy in the second half of the year needs to continue and increase force to consolidate the economic recovery and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. It aims to release domestic demand potential by promoting consumption and expanding effective investment [2][3]. II. "Anti - involution" and price trends - The "anti - involution" policy will be advanced to promote the balance of supply and demand and the return of prices to a reasonable level. It is expected that CPI and PPI will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity governance measures in key industries [4]. III. Fiscal policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive. As of July 30, the cumulative issuance of local new general bonds was 538.3 billion with a progress of 67.3%, and that of local new special bonds was 277.6 billion with a progress of 63.13%. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. IV. Monetary policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus. The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost [7]. V. Bond market strategy - The influence of the stock market on the bond market has increased, bringing re - pricing pressure on long - term bonds. The short - term risk of a bearish bond market is low. The investment strategy suggests that the 10 - year treasury bond rate of 1.75% - 1.8% has allocation value, and attention can be paid to the allocation value of short - duration and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds after adjustment [8][9].

Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on the work report and the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and effective, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [2][6] Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund usage efficiency [1][2] - The total new deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long-term special bonds for the year amount to 11.86 trillion yuan, with significant progress in issuance by mid-year [5] - The focus of fiscal policy will be on government bond issuance and usage, with an expected acceleration in the pace of issuance [3][4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for further liquidity injections through tools like reverse repos and MLF [4] - The emphasis will be on promoting a decline in overall financing costs and supporting key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4][5] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to play a targeted role in supporting specific sectors [4] Consumption and Investment - The meeting outlined three key areas to effectively release domestic demand potential, including implementing actions to boost consumption and expanding effective investment [6][7] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [6] - There is a need to stimulate service consumption, which is seen as a critical area for economic growth and job stability [7][8] Recommendations for Service Consumption - Suggestions include shifting "old-for-new" policies from product subsidies to service consumption subsidies, optimizing rest and vacation systems, and addressing educational issues for migrant workers' children [8] - Emphasis on public investment to improve service quality and supply, particularly in education, healthcare, and entertainment sectors [8] - The need for a supportive policy environment to enhance consumer protection and create a safe consumption atmosphere [8]