1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101. Its ability to firmly return above 100 depends on the US government's reopening negotiation deadline and the quality of economic data after reopening [1][19]. - This week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to range from 7.10 to 7.15. Near the end of the year, it may show a "shifting down of the oscillation bottom" trend, with a low probability of significant one - sided depreciation [1][19]. - There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October. The trade data has short - term "noise", and the export data in October is a replenishment for the high growth in September. The export growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - **US Market**: The adjustment of US stocks was triggered by warnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley at a summit. The US government shutdown affected data release. ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, but the labor market is under pressure. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut fluctuated, and the US dollar index lost the 100 mark and then rebounded and fell [2][5]. - **European and UK Markets**: The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%, with a 5 - 4 vote split. High inflation in the UK restricted interest - rate cuts. Sweden and Norway also maintained their policies [6]. - **Japanese Market**: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting indicated that the pre - conditions for restarting interest - rate hikes were gradually being met, strengthening the market's expectation of a policy shift and causing fluctuations in the Japanese bond market [6]. - As of November 7, 16:30, the US dollar index depreciated, the on - shore and off - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound appreciated against the US dollar [7]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed an inverted V - shape, fluctuating within the 7.10 - 7.14 range as predicted [15]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The short - term trend of the US dollar index and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is as mentioned in the core viewpoints. There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October [19][21]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0836, depreciating 44 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate [23]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable. Cross - border capital flows were active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand were relatively balanced. There was a small net outflow in September due to the holiday, which turned into an inflow in October [26][27]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the depreciation sentiment of overseas investors towards the RMB slightly declined [31]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: The 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH rose. In the short - to - medium term, the market's sentiment towards RMB appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the long - term appreciation sentiment increased [33]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant figures show the trading situation of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract [36]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Figures present the trading situation of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract and the basis difference with the Hong Kong Exchange [43]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Focus On 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Service trade imports and exports increased in the first three quarters. China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations. Some export control measures were suspended, and some US entities' trade qualifications were restored. In October, foreign trade maintained growth, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased [47][48]. - **US**: The number of corporate layoffs reached a high level since 2020. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was in contraction, ADP employment exceeded expectations, the ISM services PMI reached a new high, and consumer confidence was at a low level [49][50]. - **UK**: No significant events [51]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing PMI in October was 50, and the services PMI drove the composite PMI to a new high. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's was in contraction [51]. - **Japan**: Nominal wages increased in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy [52]. - **Others**: South Korea's CPI accelerated in October, which may lead to the central bank continuing to suspend interest - rate cuts [53]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - **China's Central Bank**: No relevant statements [54]. - **Federal Reserve**: Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the December decision [54][55]. - **Bank of Japan**: The prime minister hoped for appropriate policies, and the meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards interest - rate hikes [56]. - **European Central Bank**: Officials believed there was no reason to adjust borrowing costs but remained vigilant about inflation [57]. - **Bank of England**: The bank kept the interest rate at 4%, with internal differences intensifying and increasing the expectation of a December interest - rate cut [58]. - **Others**: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate unchanged and warned of inflation pressure [59]. 3.3.3 Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Focus on This Week - A series of important economic data from different regions such as the UK unemployment rate, China's M2 money supply, and the US CPI are to be released this week [60]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Conditions - Figures show the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound [62][64][68]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Figures display the trends of assets such as London gold, VIX, WTI crude oil, and the S&P 500 index [83][84][87]. 3.4.3 Capital Situation - Figures present the central bank's open - market operations, Shibor, and SOFR quotes [92][94]. 3.4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Figures show the trends of the China - US interest rate spread and the yields of 10 - year Chinese and US Treasury bonds [96][97]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Figures show the trends of the CFETS, BIS, and SDR RMB exchange rate indices [100]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Figures show the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in relevant measures [102][104].

Group 1: Dollar Index Insights - The recent rise in the dollar index is primarily driven by U.S. internal policy expectations and economic data support, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping from 82% to 67% for December[1] - October ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000, exceeding the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a stable job market[1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index also surpassed expectations, suggesting continued economic strength in the U.S.[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Factors - U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising from $800 billion to $1 trillion, while bank reserves fell to a record low of $2.8 trillion[1] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22%, exceeding the policy rate range of 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in non-U.S. economies, such as the weakening of the British pound and euro, have further strengthened the dollar's relative position[1] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of November 1 to November 8, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.19%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.04% during the same period[2] - Commodity prices saw declines, with WTI crude oil down by 2.02% and SHFE rebar down by 2.27%[2] Group 4: Inventory and Positioning - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44.355 million tons, increasing by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 14,032 contracts, up by 1,541 contracts, while short positions decreased to 24,376 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings increased to 3,350 million ounces, reflecting a rise of 90,000 ounces[3]

Group 1 - The gold market is in a "pre-war state" with international spot gold reaching $3998 per ounce, just shy of the $4000 mark, and domestic gold contracts rising to 918 yuan per gram, up 1.3% from the previous day [1] - The upcoming U.S. GDP data is expected to be a significant catalyst for gold prices, with mixed market sentiment as some anticipate a breakout above $4050 while others expect a dip [3] - Central bank gold purchases are providing strong support for gold prices, with the Chinese central bank increasing its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months and global central banks buying 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Group 2 - Retail investors are often making poor trading decisions, such as chasing prices without considering transaction costs, which can lead to losses even when gold prices rise [5] - Practical advice for gold purchases includes waiting for potential price dips after the GDP announcement and being cautious with investment strategies, such as not exceeding 15% of total assets in gold [6] - Maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial, as short-term fluctuations may not indicate a sustained bull market, and investors should focus on meeting their price expectations rather than trying to time the market perfectly [6] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, and maintaining composure is more valuable than gold itself, as emotional trading can lead to poor decisions [7]

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.16% to 99.55, while most non-US currencies appreciated [1] - The euro rose by 0.15% against the dollar, reaching 1.1565 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.19% to 1.3164 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.22% to 0.6494 against the dollar [1] - The US dollar gained 0.24% against the Japanese yen, reaching 153.4275 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.51% against the Canadian dollar, settling at 1.4046 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.14% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8051 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index experienced declines on November 7, indicating a weakening of the US dollar against other currencies during the week [1]. Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index fell by 0.17%, closing at 99.567 points, with a cumulative decline of 0.24% for the week [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index decreased by 0.14%, ending at 1219.76 points, with a total drop of 0.09% for the week [1].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $33,433 billion as of October 2025, marking a $47 billion increase from September, and maintaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months, the highest level since December 2015 [2][3] - The diversification of China's international reserve assets continues to progress steadily, with gold reserves increasing by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][5] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices, which provided a supportive effect for China's reserves [3] - In October, the US dollar index rose by 2.1% to 99.8, reaching a new high since August, while major global stock indices saw significant increases, contributing to the positive valuation effect on China's foreign reserves [3] - Experts suggest that the current level of foreign reserves is slightly above $3 trillion and is considered adequately sufficient, providing important support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium [3][4] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October, continuing a trend of accumulation amid high gold prices, which reached a historical peak of $4,294 per ounce before settling around $4,000 [5] - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves is seen as a strategy to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and mitigate risks associated with a high proportion of dollar assets, especially in the context of fluctuating dollar values and geopolitical risks [5]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for three consecutive months, reaching $33,433.43 billion by the end of October 2025, up by $46.85 billion or 0.14% from September [1] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with gold reserves reaching 7.409 million ounces by the end of October, an increase of 3,000 ounces from September [3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433.43 billion, reflecting a monthly increase of $46.85 billion [1] - In the first ten months of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves cumulatively increased by $1,409.86 billion, with notable monthly fluctuations [2] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and overall rising global financial asset prices, despite a decline in non-dollar currencies [1][2] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China has resumed increasing its gold reserves since November last year, continuing this trend for 12 months [3] - The gold reserves increased from 7.406 million ounces at the end of September to 7.409 million ounces at the end of October [3] - This consistent accumulation of gold is seen as a strategic move to bolster the country's financial stability amid external economic fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased to below 4.0850%, fully reversing earlier gains as U.S. consumer confidence hits a three-year low [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen below 3.55% [1] - The yield on the 10-year TIPS has retreated to below 1.8150%, while the 2-year TIPS yield remains temporarily above 1.02% [1] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has reached a new daily low [1] - The S&P 500 index has narrowed its decline to 0.54%, while the Nasdaq Composite index initially dropped by 1.53% but has since reduced its loss to less than 1% [1] - Spot gold remains steady above $3990, with an intraday gain of nearly 0.4% [1] - Bitcoin has turned positive, returning above $101,000 [1]

11月7日，国家外汇管理局披露，截至2025年10月末，我国外汇储备规模为33433亿美元，较9月末增长近47亿美元， 升幅为0.14%。 全球股债双强对外储形成支撑 国家外汇管理局相关负责人表示，2025年10月，受主要经济体货币政策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指 数上涨，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 10月份，外汇储备余额延续了此前两个月的升势。管涛分析认为，近期美元指数走强，非美元货币总体下跌。10月 当月，美元指数震荡上行，累计上涨2.1%至99.8，创8月份以来新高。同期，人民币在主要非美货币中表现相对强 势，中间价和在岸即期汇率累计分别升值175个、51个基点，期间在岸即期汇率一度升破7.10，为2024年11月5日以 来的首次。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛分析认为，外汇储备余额延续了此前两个月的升势，缘于主要经济体货币政策及预 期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，在美元指数走强和非美元货币总体下跌的情况下，全球金融资产价格总体上涨，并 带来正估值效应。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，10月末我国外储规模已连续3个月升至3.3万亿美元之 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ADP employment figures in the US in October significantly exceeded expectations, reversing the downward trend from the previous month's revised data, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high in nearly 8 months. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US and the delay in official data release, the market has concerns about the economic and employment outlook, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains volatile [2]. - Despite being affected by overseas markets, A - shares showed resilience. The index remained in the consolidation range after breaking through 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% this week, returning to the 4000 - point level. The large - cap broad - based indices were relatively stronger, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rising about 0.8% for the week, leading the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2]. - The trading volume this week decreased significantly compared to last week, with the average daily volume less than 2 trillion. The inflow of margin trading slowed down, and the market entered a phase of volume - contraction game [2]. - The "dividend + micro - cap" old dumbbell structure returned in terms of style. The CSI Dividend and micro - cap stock indices led the core indices, while the Beijing Stock Exchange and Sci - tech Innovation Board lagged behind [2]. - The basis of all varieties weakened slightly compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to less than 1%, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM reached 2.5%, 9.9%, and 12.7% respectively, still at the lower quartile in the past three years. The near - end of the term structure declined slightly, with little overall change from last week, and long - short diversified hedging can still be maintained [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion of Basis Direction - This week's model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively next week [4]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - Specific data on the predicted basis changes of IH, IF, and IC are provided, but the information is presented in a somewhat disorganized manner in the text [3]. This Week's Review - The ADP employment data in the US in October reversed the previous decline, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high, but market concerns persisted due to the government shutdown and data delay. The A - share market showed resilience despite overseas shocks, with the index rising and the large - cap broad - based indices performing better. The trading volume decreased, and the "dividend + micro - cap" style returned. The basis of all varieties weakened slightly [2].