中国人民银行货币政策委员会于12月18日召开了2025年第四季度例会，并于12月24日对外公布了会议内 容。此次会议明确了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时 机。会议提出，要保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 在具体的政策安排上，会议提出要强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利 率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。会议重申，要从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注长期收益率的变化。此外，会议还强调了要畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，增 强外汇市场韧性，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 会议指出，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现 有 ...

Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a 1.2% increase from November 24 to December 23, approaching the "7" mark[1] - The depreciation of the USD, with a 2.3% drop in the USD index, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB[7] - Strong export performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% until November, supports the RMB's appreciation[8] Group 2: Future Outlook and Impacts - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US[13] - China's significant trade surplus, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months, necessitates RMB appreciation[8] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing foreign capital inflow[17] - Export-oriented companies may face challenges due to reduced competitiveness, while import-oriented firms could benefit from lower costs[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of the Chinese economy and unexpected tightening of US monetary policy[18] - Diplomatic pressures may arise from the expanding trade surplus, necessitating a balanced approach to currency appreciation[16]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 12 月 20 日当 | | | | | 周首申失业金人数降至 21.4 万人，预期和前值为 22.4 万人，表明劳动力市场仍未见明 | | | | | 显压力。美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至 2%之后，重新审视美联储的这一 | | | | | 通胀目标，主张央行退居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。国内方面，央行四季 | | | | | 度例会表示将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。库存方面， | | | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 1550 吨至 157025 吨；Comex 库存增加 4095 吨至 435035 吨；SHFE 铜仓 | | | | | 单增加 2679 吨至 52222 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企 | | | | | | | 业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-12-25 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 货币政策宽松边际收敛，关注短期的风险 ——中国货币政策系列二十三 宏观事件 12 月 18 日央行四季度例会。会议建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多 种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好 政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。 核心观点 政策目标：价格成为货币政策的重要考量，"经济稳定增长和物价合理回升"。 经济形势：外部角度，随着中美关税冲突进入到一年的暂停期，阶段性的不确定性有 所降低；内部角度，边际上加大"供给侧"的表述，或将驱动 2026 年负 PPI 向上修复。 宏观政策：从"需求不足"转向"供强需弱"，新增"跨周期调节"。货币政策的目标从物价 的"处于合理水平"转向了"合理回升"，价格因素在央行的货币政策中的占比有所上升。 货币政策：政策强调"发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应"，稳定而非下降"社会综合融 资成本"。删去"引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is closely watching the upcoming two-year government bond auction, which is seen as a critical indicator of investor sentiment amid rising inflation and discussions on potential further tightening by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Auction Context - The auction occurs less than a week after the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to a 30-year high, with no clear guidance on future tightening from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] - The two-year government bond yield reached its highest level since 1996 earlier this week, indicating a market re-evaluation of future policy paths [1] - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to its highest level since 2004, reflecting sustained increases in medium- to long-term inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over the speed of the central bank's policy response and the upward adjustment of inflation expectations and neutral interest rates [4] - Despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities regarding exchange rates, the yen's depreciation and rising yields have not fully stabilized the market [4] - Overnight index swaps indicate a possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan before September next year [4] Group 3: Auction Expectations - The upcoming auction may be the first issuance of two-year bonds with yields exceeding 1%, but uncertainty remains due to the recent rate hike and unclear policy outlook [4] - Traders currently price in the next 25 basis point rate hike only by September 2026 [4] - Investors are also focused on the upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget proposal, which is expected to increase the issuance of two-year, five-year, and ten-year bonds while reducing ultra-long bond issuance [4] Group 4: Auction Metrics - The auction results will be announced on Thursday at 12:35 Tokyo time, with key metrics such as bid-to-cover ratio and the "tail" between average and minimum accepted prices being closely monitored [5] - The previous auction in November had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.53, which will serve as a benchmark for assessing market sentiment [5] - Increased issuance of two-year bonds may lead to a higher risk of short-term paper losses [5]

12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会。 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节， 综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 金融的"输血"换来了经济"造血"能力的提升。业内专家表示，近期，经济运行呈现出诸多积极信号，市 场对前景的预期边际改善。"今年以来，构建全国统一大市场、综合整治低价过度竞争有序推进，效果 已逐步显现，市场竞争秩序不断优化，工业企业利润有望维持增长态势。从政策支持来看，适度宽松的 货币政策持续显效，货币金融条件相对宽松，财政部近期又提前下达了2026年度新增地方专项债额度， 5000亿元新型政策性金融工具资金也全部投放完毕，项目总投资约7万亿元，将对投资形成有力支撑。 10月，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.8%，企业信心不断恢复。"招联首席研究员董希淼对《金融 时报》记者表示，"货币政策既对冲了下行压力，又没搞'大水漫灌'，这种平衡很难得。" 围绕下一阶段，王青等业内专家普遍认为，2026年央行还会通过各类流动性工具搭配组合，适时向市场 注入短 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展4000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。 12月，MLF维持超额续作，净投放1000亿元，配合买断式逆回购超额续作，两类工具共计释放中期流 动性3000亿元。 投放规模较前两个月有所收窄 这是央行连续七个月开展中期流动性净投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，前期安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩 大有效投资，这意味着12月还会有一定规模的政府债券发行；10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完 毕，12月会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放，另外12月银行同业存单到期量也有明显增加。这些都会在一 定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 不过，12月中期流动性净投放总额较上月减少3000亿元，流动性投放规模低于10月和11月6000亿元的水 准。 王青分析，这一方面缘于当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降，另一方面也不排除2026年一季度央 行实施降准、向市场注入较大规模长期流动性的可能，短期内两类流动性投放工具存在替代关系。 2025年央行MLF净投放11610亿元 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国就业市场回温 【市场资讯】1）中国央行四季度例会：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度。2）北京楼市新政：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求。3） 贝森特暗示美联储未来方向：通胀"区间制"，取消"点阵图"，支持财政部，回归"幕后"。4） 圣诞前夕美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。国内方面，政治局会议 与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务 消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社 会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现偏弱，仍需政策托底。 人民币汇率：涨声一片 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 ...

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 【要闻速递】 摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫的通胀警告招致特朗普直接回击。本月早些时候，希夫做客《Fox and Friends Weekend》后，特朗 普于12月6日在Truth Social发帖，斥其为"憎恨特朗普的失败者""混蛋"，并反驳物价上涨论，称部分州 汽油价已降至每加仑1.99美元，物价"正大幅下降"。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫驳斥称，仅盯燃料价格忽视整体负担压力，"通胀正在上升，几乎没下降可能，只会走高"。他以租 金、保险及服务成本上涨为例，指通胀仍深植经济。回应特朗普时，希夫强调通胀源于历届政府政策选 择，非政治言辞："拜登引发'负担能力危机'时，获特朗普第一任期'助力'，且未解决问题反加剧"。他 总结，核心不在言辞而在货币政策，警告即便有相反说法，降息与资产负债表再扩张或于2026年推高通 胀。 黄金T+D价格延续短期回调，主力合约承压于关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1][2]. Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - In November, the PBOC injected a net of 600 billion yuan in medium- and long-term funds through open market operations, keeping the liquidity abundant [2][3]. - The overall net injection in the open market for November was 173.8 billion yuan, indicating a continued ample liquidity environment [2]. - Major repo rates saw a slight increase, with the weighted average of DR001 and R001 rising by 3 and 5 basis points to 1.37% and 1.43%, respectively [2][3]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a total issuance of 4.7 trillion yuan in November, a month-on-month increase of 21.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [4]. - The net financing in the bond market reached 2.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 119.3% [4]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.8% and 1.85%, with a notable steepening of the yield curve [4]. Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward in November, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year FR007 swap rates increasing by 2, 5, and 6 basis points, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume of interest rate swaps decreased by 7.8% compared to the previous month [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a divergence in investor sentiment regarding long-term bonds, attributed to pressures on banks' liabilities and seasonal regulatory assessments [5]. - The market is increasingly discussing the impact of upcoming macroeconomic data and the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market as the year-end approaches [5].