日度观点: ◆ PVC： 能源化工日报 咨询电话：027-65777102 从业编号：F3051631 投资咨询编号：Z0015756 4 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4949 元/吨（-40），常州市场价 4760 元/吨（-20），主力基差-189 元/吨（+20），广州市场价 4820 元/吨（-20）， 杭州市场价 4850 元/吨（+20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高 开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过 剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量 持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏 观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

• 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7410 （-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差288，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、基差偏强 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3 ...

韩国财长崔相穆：韩国绝对不会试图在总统选举前结束与美国的关税谈判。 ...

美国贸易代表办公室表示，欧洲在关税谈判上并没有很好地参与。(智通财经) ...

据美国公共电视网：美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）表示，欧洲在关税谈判上并没有很好地参与。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market reached a new historical record of $3,500 last week, followed by a significant pullback due to Trump's easing of tariff rhetoric [1] - Domestic investors have been the main source of incremental funds in the market since April, continuing to show a rapid influx [1] - The gold market experienced the largest volatility of the year during the week of April 21-25, with Asian buying contributing approximately 70% of the price increase since April [1] Group 2 - On April 22, the total trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 1 trillion RMB, and the daily trading volume of domestic gold ETFs increased by over 300% compared to the average of the past month [1] - Trump's administration has been signaling a reduction in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which has alleviated market concerns and led to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. stocks [1][2] - The net long positions of COMEX gold futures managers have dropped to the lowest level in 13 months, indicating a willingness to take profits in the overheated gold market [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking a leading role in tariff negotiations, with expectations of a potential recovery in market risk appetite, while gold may continue to adjust from its previous aggressive performance [2] - The macroeconomic logic for gold remains unchanged in the medium to long term, with upcoming corporate debt maturities and the lifting of the debt ceiling potentially causing further market volatility [2] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for a broader audience [2]

二级市场回顾 上周债市表现震荡偏弱，中短端表现承压。主要影响因素包括：美关税态度反复、政治局会议、央行操 作等。 市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为3260亿、1911亿和1587亿，净融资额 为-1818亿、1625亿和-609亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2351亿，净融资额1850亿。非金信 用债共计发行规模5247亿，净融资额1329亿。可转债暂无新券发行。 权益市场 上周A股趋于平淡，国家队"托而不举"，"稳市场"特征显著，对消息面的反应钝化，创业板指补涨。具 体看，上周万得全A上涨1.15%，沪深300上涨0.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%。A股温和放量，日均成交额 1.15万亿，周度日均成交量小幅增加379.79亿。截至2025年4月24日，全A融资余额17968.55亿，较4月17 日仅减少21.27亿元。 债市策略展望 上周内外部事件扰动加大，但债市长端表现仍偏窄幅震荡，显示出在中美形势尚未清晰时期，投资者短 期仍对关税谈判问题以及对冲政策持观望态度。政治局会议表态也显示出政府在中美边打边谈拉锯战时 期，更倾向以内部确定性应对外部扰动，重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in high - level adjustment with long - term strategic allocation value due to unsolved contradictions, uncertain tariff negotiations, and the trend of de - dollarization [1][2] - Silver is in wide - range adjustment. Short - term tariff negotiations improve sentiment, but mid - term uncertainty is high [1] - Copper is expected to fall in the short - term due to approaching holidays and rising risk - aversion. However, it is still favored in the long - term [1][5] - Zinc is expected to fall in the short - term because of policy expectation disappointment and holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak [1][8] - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to their respective supply - demand situations [1] - Aluminum prices continue to rebound as overseas environment eases, supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing [1][11] - Nickel prices rebound and then fall because of the contradiction at the Indonesian nickel mine end and slow stainless - steel de - stocking [1][13] - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish due to supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Conditions - SHFE gold is at 780.04, down 0.91% from the previous value and 6.18% from last week; COMEX gold is at 3361, up 0.92% from the previous value and down 0.91% from last week. SHFE silver is at 8168, down 1.35% from the previous value and 0.07% from last week; COMEX silver is at 34, up 0.89% from the previous value and 4.22% from last week [2] 3.1.2 Basic Logic - Tariff negotiations are in a deadlock. The US plans to negotiate with 18 trade partners in a fixed mode. If no agreement is reached, equal tariffs will be implemented [2] - A large amount of investment funds has withdrawn from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, with an outflow of $1.27 billion, the largest since 2011 [2] - The short - term adjustment of gold is affected by the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the alleviation of concerns about the Fed's independence, and trading congestion. But the bull - market logic remains unchanged [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For short - term, when the short - term sentiment relaxes and the price stops falling and stabilizes, continue to participate. For silver, use a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8400] [3] 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE copper is 77630, down 0.22% from the previous day; LME copper is at 9428, up 0.38% from the previous day; COMEX copper is at 490, down 0.01% from the previous day [4] 3.2.2 Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is constantly disturbed, and copper concentrate processing fees continue to hit new lows. Demand shows resilience, but enterprises' order expectations are cautious due to price fluctuations and US tariff policies [5] 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, as the May Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to gradually take profits on long copper positions, and hold light positions or be empty - handed during the holiday. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [76000, 78000], and LME copper focuses on [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [5] 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE zinc is 22530, up 0.07% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2639, down 0.28% from the previous day [7] 3.3.2 Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose. The import of zinc concentrate in March decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Refining zinc smelter profits are positive, and downstream demand is entering the off - season [7] 3.3.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc prices will fall again due to holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak. Look for opportunities to short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2680] dollars/ton [8][9] 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME aluminum is 2431, down 0.27% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 19935, down 0.47% from the previous value [10] 3.4.2 Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy disturbances weaken, inventory decreases, and downstream demand is in the peak season. For alumina, the supply and demand surplus situation is temporarily alleviated [11] 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to lightly go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices, paying attention to the performance of the peak season. The main operating range is [19500 - 20300]. Alumina is expected to run relatively weakly [11] 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME nickel is 15590, up 0.65% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 124690, down 0.88% from the previous value [12] 3.5.2 Industrial Logic - The Indonesian nickel mine policy increases costs, providing some support for nickel prices. Domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a relatively high level. Stainless - steel inventory de - stocking faces resistance, and the industry is in a state of oversupply [13] 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 129000] [13] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Conditions - The price of the main contract LC2507 is 66,960, down 1.79% from the previous value [14] 3.6.2 Industrial Logic - The fundamental situation has not improved significantly, with 11 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation indicating a supply - demand imbalance. Downstream pre - holiday replenishment willingness is low, and demand has no seasonal increase. Although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of negative feedback [15] 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - The price is expected to run weakly. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with the range [65000, 69000] [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming volatility in the commodity market during the May Day holiday, highlighting the potential impacts of various economic indicators and events on different commodities [2][3] Group 1: Market Volatility and Indicators - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility ahead of the May Day holiday, with historical data showing an average jump of 2.3% on the first trading day after the holiday over the past five years [2] - Key economic events and data releases include China's April official manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP employment change, the U.S. PCE price index, and the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized growth rate, all of which are expected to influence various commodities [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data on May 2 is particularly significant, as weaker-than-expected employment figures could lead to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting precious and base metals [2][3] Group 2: International Relations and Tariffs - A new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for May 3, which may impact oil and related products [3] - The U.S. is set to impose import tariffs on automotive parts produced overseas, which could affect commodities such as gold, rubber, aluminum, and copper [3]