2025 年 04 月 30 日 铅：需求偏弱，上方承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16895 | -0.65% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1977 | 1.65% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31780 | -8769 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3551 | 1373 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 36543 | -2276 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145978 | -1359 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 15 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.86 | 2.05 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -10 | 5 | 进口升贴水 ...

斯里兰卡财政部长：在关税谈判中，斯里兰卡将能源确定为增加美国进口的关键领域。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The PVC market is in a state of over - supply and weak demand, with a bearish outlook. It is dominated by the macro - situation, and its valuation is low. The market is in a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and oscillating trend. Concerns include delivery volume, inventory, alumina production, exports, and maintenance scale [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Attention should be paid to the later stage of the tapping season [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and high daily output. Currently, the demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. After the festival, attention should be paid to the sowing progress of crops [6]. - The methanol market has a reduction in domestic supply, stable downstream demand, and a differentiation between domestic and port inventories. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure, weak downstream demand, and neutral inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, port incidents, and tariff issues [9]. Group 3: Summary by Product PVC - On April 29, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4,949 yuan/ton (- 40). The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the export is restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has been reduced, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 29, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton (- 10). The inventory has decreased slightly but is still high. There is support for exports, and the supply is sufficient, with demand growth limited [3]. Rubber - On April 29, the rubber market oscillated. The new rubber supply is expected to increase, and the tire start - up rate fluctuates. The inventory in China is accumulating. The sample enterprise utilization rate of semi - steel tires is 72.36% (down 1.84 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 65.79% (down 1.65 percentage points) [4][5]. Urea - The urea main contract fell 2.09% to close at 1,735 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the daily output is at a high level. The demand for compound fertilizers is weak, and the industrial demand is rising. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract fell 0.96% to close at 2,278 yuan/ton. The device utilization rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory shows a differentiation between domestic and port areas [7][8]. Plastic - On April 29, the plastic main contract fell 0.60% to close at 7,122 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is neutral. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

• 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+后期可能进一步增产，原油自4月初低点以来 有所反弹，中美关税谈判目前没有进一步消息，近日伊朗港口爆炸消息对市场有一定扰动，实际 影响预计有限。6月预计仍有较多新产能投放，产业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜旺季结束， 小厂陆续停车，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交割品现货价7410 （-10），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差288，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存57.9万吨（+2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，农膜旺季结束需求减弱，新产能后期仍有投放，产业链库 存中性偏高，预计PE今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、基差偏强 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3 ...

韩国财长崔相穆：韩国绝对不会试图在总统选举前结束与美国的关税谈判。 ...

美国贸易代表办公室表示，欧洲在关税谈判上并没有很好地参与。(智通财经) ...

据美国公共电视网：美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）表示，欧洲在关税谈判上并没有很好地参与。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market reached a new historical record of $3,500 last week, followed by a significant pullback due to Trump's easing of tariff rhetoric [1] - Domestic investors have been the main source of incremental funds in the market since April, continuing to show a rapid influx [1] - The gold market experienced the largest volatility of the year during the week of April 21-25, with Asian buying contributing approximately 70% of the price increase since April [1] Group 2 - On April 22, the total trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 1 trillion RMB, and the daily trading volume of domestic gold ETFs increased by over 300% compared to the average of the past month [1] - Trump's administration has been signaling a reduction in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which has alleviated market concerns and led to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. stocks [1][2] - The net long positions of COMEX gold futures managers have dropped to the lowest level in 13 months, indicating a willingness to take profits in the overheated gold market [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking a leading role in tariff negotiations, with expectations of a potential recovery in market risk appetite, while gold may continue to adjust from its previous aggressive performance [2] - The macroeconomic logic for gold remains unchanged in the medium to long term, with upcoming corporate debt maturities and the lifting of the debt ceiling potentially causing further market volatility [2] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for a broader audience [2]

二级市场回顾 上周债市表现震荡偏弱，中短端表现承压。主要影响因素包括：美关税态度反复、政治局会议、央行操 作等。 市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为3260亿、1911亿和1587亿，净融资额 为-1818亿、1625亿和-609亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2351亿，净融资额1850亿。非金信 用债共计发行规模5247亿，净融资额1329亿。可转债暂无新券发行。 权益市场 上周A股趋于平淡，国家队"托而不举"，"稳市场"特征显著，对消息面的反应钝化，创业板指补涨。具 体看，上周万得全A上涨1.15%，沪深300上涨0.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%。A股温和放量，日均成交额 1.15万亿，周度日均成交量小幅增加379.79亿。截至2025年4月24日，全A融资余额17968.55亿，较4月17 日仅减少21.27亿元。 债市策略展望 上周内外部事件扰动加大，但债市长端表现仍偏窄幅震荡，显示出在中美形势尚未清晰时期，投资者短 期仍对关税谈判问题以及对冲政策持观望态度。政治局会议表态也显示出政府在中美边打边谈拉锯战时 期，更倾向以内部确定性应对外部扰动，重 ...