沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.61%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.64%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨0.13%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌0.14%。 股指期货早盘收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元，较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求，且稳定股市预期，尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...

Group 1 - The main contracts for the CSI 300 index futures (IF) increased by 0.61% [1] - The main contracts for the SSE 50 index futures (IH) rose by 0.45% [1] - The main contracts for the CSI 500 index futures (IC) saw an increase of 0.56% [1] - The main contracts for the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) grew by 0.88% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均探底回升，全天震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 11189 亿元，较上日缩量 52 亿元。昨日统计局公布了 4 月消费与固定资产投资数据，符合市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - **Institutional Positions**: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].

股指期货午盘收盘 金十期货5月19日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.08%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.17%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约涨0.23%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.44%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term index is expected to fluctuate, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [7] - The CSI 300 index is near the medium - and long - term moving average, with slightly increased trading volume, and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 371.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to April, it was 1.61845 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% [4] - **Overseas News**: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted its outlook from "negative" to "stable" [4] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 index rose first and then fell, with increased trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 91 billion yuan, and margin trading funds increased by 2.5 billion yuan [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with slightly increased short - term trading volume, and its medium - and long - term valuation is at a medium - low level [4] II. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Futures Performance**: IF2506 closed at 3846 this week, up 0.98% from last week; IH2506 closed at 2695.2, up 1.09%; IC2506 closed at 5601.8, down 0.05%; IM2506 closed at 5933.8, down 0.19% [6] - **Market Features**: Stock index futures fluctuated, and market trading volume increased. The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures. Since 2024, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 large - cap stocks have risen 18.52%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 3.64% [7] III. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49 (below the boom - bust line), the interest rate was 1.7% (below 3%), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8% [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter, the net profit of A - share enterprises increased year - on - year compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.7%, up 6 BP from last week [10] IV. Stock Index Funds and Valuation Changes - **Funds**: The margin trading balance of A - shares increased by 2.5 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 91 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, and the percentile is 39% [14] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Medium - and long - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing [18] - **Earnings**: The earnings of A - shares increased year - on - year in the first quarter [18] - **Funds**: Margin trading funds increased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow [18] - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - and long - term [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - and long - term moving average, with slightly increased trading volume, and is slightly stronger in the short - term [17]

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 10 - year Treasury yields of various major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes are presented. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.480 on May 16, 2025, with a latest change of 0.047, a weekly change of 0.100, a monthly change of 0.144, and a yearly change of - 0.015 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 2 - year Treasury yields of some major economies on May 16, 2025, and their corresponding changes are shown. For instance, the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 4.050 on that date, with a latest change of 0.030, a weekly change of 0.270, a monthly change of 0.310, and a yearly change of - 0.770 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - The exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - market currencies on May 16, 2025, and their changes are provided. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.665 on that day, with a latest change of - 0.31%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of - 3.76%, and a yearly change of 11.28% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - The stock indices of major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes are given. For example, the S&P 500 index was 5958.380 on that date, with a latest change of 0.70%, a weekly change of 5.27%, a monthly change of 10.41%, and a yearly change of 14.86% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The credit bond indices of different regions and levels on May 16, 2025, and their changes are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3344.160 on that day, with a latest change of 0.13%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 0.90%, and a yearly change of 5.44% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3367.46 with a change of - 0.40% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are presented. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was - 263.31 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10895.29 with a环比 change of - 628.66 [5]. Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 43.09 with a spread of - 1.11% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.480 with a change of 0.02% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes are given. For example, the funding rate of R001 was 1.6513% with a daily change of 10.00 BP [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 ...

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.60%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌1.15%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨0.09%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.38%。 股指期货早盘收盘 ...