中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约向上触及6000点，日内涨2.46%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - **Medium - term View**: Relatively strong - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79200 - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - **Core Logic**: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - **Medium - term View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - **Core Logic**: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - **Medium - term View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - **Core Logic**: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - **Core Logic**: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - IC2507 has a discount of 51.11 points, and IM2507 has a discount of 64.79 points, indicating a bearish signal. The US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and the market should closely monitor Iran's response. Short - term uncertainties may decrease, with oil prices opening high and closing low. The market corrected last week due to uncertainties between Israel and Iran, and market hotspots decreased. The margin trading balance is 1809.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5 billion yuan, also a bearish signal. IH2507 has a discount of 36.92 points, and IF2507 has a discount of 42.24 points, showing a neutral situation. The main contracts are ranked as IM>IC>IF>IH, and IH, IF, IM, IC, and IF are below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The long positions of IH main contracts decreased, those of IF main contracts increased, and those of IC main contracts decreased, showing a bullish signal. The US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and limited benefits from the Lujiazui Forum, along with global stock market adjustments, have increased the upward pressure on domestic indices, leading to a weak adjustment of the indices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Index Contract Information**: Details of contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms are provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 500 are presented, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [7][10]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [13]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indices such as the 300 - cycle index, 300 - non - cycle index, etc. are presented [16][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: A chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, showing the premium situation of AH shares [23]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: A chart of the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is presented [26]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: A chart of the PB of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is provided [28]. Market Capital - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: A chart of the capital inflow into the A - share market and the CSI 300 is presented [30]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: A chart of the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 is provided [32]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: A chart of the net inflow of northbound capital is presented [34]. - **Stock Unlock**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [36]. - **Capital Cost**: A chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates is presented [40]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Charts of the turnover rates (based on free - floating market value) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are provided [43][46]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [48]. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: A chart of the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is presented [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: A chart of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is provided [54]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although mentioned, no specific content is provided [55]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: Charts of the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific content is provided [57][59][61].

研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

Group 1: Report Overview and Core Views - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures: Phased Disturbance Phase, Long - term Trend Remains Unchanged" and was released on June 23, 2025 [1] - The core view is that this year's stock market is an oscillating upward trend driven by valuation expansion. However, the market valuation lacks a high margin of safety, and a shift from the crowded trading of small - cap stocks may lead to adjustments. In the later stage, maintain a long - position mindset but make comprehensive judgments based on technical, sentiment, and news factors, and consider the support levels of the CSI 300 spot index at 3800 and 3750 points. During market corrections, IH and IF are expected to be stronger than IM and IC [2] - Factors to watch include geopolitical situation changes and domestic policy directions [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM as 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] Trend Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. If the adjustment intensifies, try to go long at low levels. The core operating ranges for the main contracts of IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 are 3690 - 3880 points, 2571 - 2690 points, 5421 - 5784 points, and 5727 - 6113 points respectively [4] Cross - variety Strategy - Go long on IF (or IH) and short on IC (or IM) [5] Group 3: Spot Market Review Global Stock Index Performance Last Week - In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%. In the European stock market, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.86%, Germany's DAX fell 0.7%, and France's CAC 40 fell 1.24%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] Performance of Major Domestic Indexes - Most major domestic indexes fell last week, with growth - style indexes experiencing larger declines [9] Industry Performance in Indexes - Most industries in the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 500 Index fell last week [14] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Market Review Performance of Futures Contracts - The main contract of IH rose last week, and the main contract of IM had the largest amplitude [17] Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [21] Basis and Cross - variety Ratios - The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trends of stock index futures main contracts and cross - variety ratios of some index futures main contracts [22] Group 5: Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 20, the P/E (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 14.64 times, 12.83 times, 11.07 times, 27.71 times, and 36.97 times respectively [23][24] Group 6: Market Fundamentals Review - The report presents data on the number of new investors in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the flat trend of capital interest rates last week, and the net capital injection of the central bank [26]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures declined by 0.12% while the Dow futures increased by 0.20% and the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.30% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures rose by 0.10% [2]

作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.20」 股指期货周报 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体收跌，多数指数跌超1%。四期指除IH外均录得下跌，大盘 蓝筹股强于中小盘股。周一，5月份国内经济数据公布，除社零外，增速均较前值下滑；周 四凌晨，美联储公布利率决议，维持政策利率不变，且在会后释放鹰派信号，推动美元兑离 岸人民币汇率走强，对A股市场情绪起到一定抑制。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周有所回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | -0.27 | 0.31 | 3773.6 | | | IH2509 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 2635.4 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US released no significant data. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Geopolitical news has led to significant asset fluctuations. A-shares fell on Thursday due to the lack of economic利好 policies from the financial meeting and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil. The subsequent trend of A-shares may either retrace to the gap on April 10 or continue to move sideways [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US released no significant data overnight. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, causing market uncertainty. The US dollar index closed down, US Treasury yields at both short and long ends declined, gold rose slightly, crude oil opened lower and closed down, the US stock market was closed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened low and closed down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.36%. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sector among the primary sectors rose, while textile and apparel, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals led the decline. There were 716 rising stocks and 4,643 falling stocks in the entire market. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will accelerate the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [5] 1.3 Important News - The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, with increasing internal differences in the voting ratio. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Israel and Iran have been in conflict for seven days, with various parties expressing different stances. There are also news about tariffs, the release of a new index by China Securities Index, a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a notice from the Personal Insurance Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight, the US stock market was closed, and the trend of crude oil prices indicates the continued impact of Middle East geopolitics. A-shares fell on high volume yesterday, similar to the trend on May 23. In the short term, a double-top pattern seems to be forming. The subsequent trend is expected to be either a retracement to the gap on April 10 or continued sideways movement [2][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as relevant charts showing their basis and inter - contract spreads [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including their current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation metrics. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes and presents relevant valuation and trading volume charts [36][37][40] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates to reflect the market's liquidity situation [52][53][54]

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.31%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.62%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约跌0.38%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌0.52%。 股指期货午盘收盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For IH2509, short - term outlook is oscillatory, medium - term is upward, and intraday is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Short - term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, weak domestic economic data, and uncertain external factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillatory and bullish; view reference: range - bound oscillation; core logic: policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: oscillatory and bullish; medium - term view: upward; reference view: range - bound oscillation. Core logic: yesterday, stock indices oscillated and pulled back. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and weak domestic economic data like credit and inflation data lead to an expectation of more supportive policies. Currently, the support for stock indices comes from loose capital and risk preference, and new incremental policies are needed for further upward movement. There are uncertainties in external factors, so short - term market risk preference is defensive, and stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [4].